北京市基础设施与经济社会发展关系

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.04.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基础设施对城市与区域经济社会发展具有正的溢出效应。本文以北京市为例,分别测度了北京市基础设施对经济增长的贡献率,基础设施部门对其他经济部门的关联关系,以及基础设施与经济社会发展水平的协调度。研究发现：①1978-2014年,北京市基础设施对经济增长的平均贡献率为34.9%,其中“七五”“八五”和“九五”时期基础设施建设提速,其贡献率高达45%左右;从各基础设施对GDP的狭义贡献度来看,邮电基础设施所创造的GDP最高,占到全市GDP的9%以上,往下依次为交通、能源和水务部门;②交通和能源部门的感应度系数较高,说明其他经济部门的增长将增加对该基础设施部门的需求,进而带动后者的增长,同时也意味着该基础设施部门易对经济发展产生制约作用,需要适度超前建设;③北京市基础设施发展水平相对滞后于经济社会发展,尤其是水务基础设施,虽然在波动中有所改善,但仍然是基础设施发展的短板,与经济社会的协调发展度最低。

关键词: 基础设施, 贡献度, 影响力, 感应度, 协调度, 北京市

Abstract:

Infrastructure has positive spillover effects on economic development. This study took Beijing as a research area and measured the direct and indirect contribution of infrastructure on economic growth, input-output relationships between infrastructure sectors and other economic sectors, as well as the coordination degrees of infrastructure with socioeconomic development level. This study indicates that: (1) the average rate of contribution of infrastructure to economic growth during 1978-2014 was about 34.9% in Beijing. In 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000, the contribution rates reached 45%. With regard to direct contribution, that is, the share of value-added of infrastructure sector in GDP, the postal-telecommunication infrastructure had the highest direct contribution, which accounted for 9% of GDP. This was followed by transportation, energy, and water-related sectors; (2) transportation and energy sectors had relatively high induction coefficients, indicating that the growth of other economic sectors increased the demand for these two infrastructure sectors, and hence drove their growth. It also reflects that these two infrastructure sectors were mostly demanded by other economic sectors and tended to have restriction effects on economic development, thus required to be constructed in advance; (3) infrastructure development in Beijing lagged behind the city’s socioeconomic development, especially for the water-related infrastructure, which is still the weakest of all infrastructure sectors and has the lowest coordination degree with the socioeconomic development level, despite that it has gradually improved. On the other hand, transportation, energy, and postal-telecommunication sectors have recently reached a highly coordinated state with socioeconomic development. Among them, the postal-telecommunication sector has developed with the most impressive rate. To conclude, the coordination degree of infrastructure and socioeconomic development in Beijing has entered a moderately coordinated stage since 2010.

Key words: infrastructure, contribution rate, influence coefficient, induction coefficient, coordination degree, Beijing City

史雅娟, 朱永彬, 黄金川. 北京市基础设施与经济社会发展关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(4): 450-461.

Yajuan SHI, Yongbin ZHU, Jinchuan HUANG. Relationship between infrastructure and socioeconomic development in Beijing[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(4): 450-461.

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类型	具体指标
交通设施	①人均拥有道路面积;②道路网密度;③城市快速路比重;④万人拥有公交车辆;⑤公交线网密度;⑥高速公路比重;⑦轨道交通线网密度
水务设施	①人均水资源;②万元产值用水量;③供水管道密度;④排水管道密度;⑤供水管网漏损率;⑥地下水供水比例;⑦水资源开发利用率;⑧人均供水综合生产能力
环境设施	①人均公园绿地面积;②生活垃圾无害化处理率;③污水集中处理率;④人均污水处理能力;⑤污水管道密度;⑥万人拥有环卫车辆
能源设施	①万元产值能耗;②集中供热面积;③供热管道密度;④燃气管道密度;⑤人均供电能力;⑥人均天然气供气总量;⑦优质能源比例;⑧燃气普及率
邮电设施	①万人拥有邮政局数;②人均邮电业务量;③移动电话普及率;④宽带接入家庭普及率;⑤3G/4G用户普及率
经济指标	①人均GDP;②三产比重;③人均消费品零售总额; ④平均利用外资额;⑤固定资产投资比例
社会指标	①常住人口;②人口密度;③城镇化率;④平均受教育年限;⑤人均可支配收入;⑥人均消费性支出;⑦汽车拥有量

协调发展度	协调等级	协调发展度	协调等级
0.90~1.00	高度协调	0.50~0.60	轻度失调
0.80~0.90	良好协调	0.30~0.50	中度失调
0.70~0.80	初等协调	0.20~0.30	严重失调
0.60~0.70	濒临失调	0.00~0.20	极度失调

年份	内容	能源部门	水务部门	交通部门	邮电部门	部门合计
2002年	增加值/亿元	61.62	13.98	177.44	366.87	619.91
2002年	直接贡献率 /%	1.51	0.34	4.33	8.96	15.14
2005年	增加值/亿元	206.32	10.80	360.02	627.90	1205.05
2005年	直接贡献率 /%	2.98	0.16	5.20	9.07	17.41
2007年	增加值/亿元	265.74	9.32	538.29	948.34	1761.68
2007年	直接贡献率 /%	2.77	0.10	5.62	9.90	18.39
2010年	增加值/亿元	436.71	7.66	650.91	1275.16	2370.44
2010年	直接贡献率 /%	3.09	0.05	4.61	9.03	16.80
2012年	增加值/亿元	522.52	17.82	816.31	1615.84	2972.49
2012年	直接贡献率 /%	2.92	0.10	4.57	9.04	16.63