北京市养老机构布局的时空演变及政策影响

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,随着老年人口的迅速增长和家庭照料资源的减少,机构养老服务在北京市得到快速发展。本文采用文献分析和空间分析的方法,研究了北京市机构养老服务发展的历程,探析了养老机构布局的时空演变过程及其政策影响因素。研究表明：①北京市养老机构的发展分为萌芽期(1953-1959年)、停滞期(1960-1977年)、增长期(1978-1995年)和繁荣期(1996-2012年) 4个阶段,各阶段具有不同的空间分布特征;②在区县尺度,机构养老服务的发展阶段和布局现状存在空间差异。延庆县、怀柔区、顺义区、密云县、平谷区、门头沟区养老机构的发展主要处于增长期,呈现出增长期的布局特征;而昌平区、房山区、大兴区和通州区养老机构的增长主要处于繁荣期,并呈现出这一时期的布局特征;③老年政策不仅影响了养老机构的总体规模,并且对各类所有制养老机构的发展历程与空间布局产生了不同影响。

关键词: 养老机构, 时空演变, 政策影响, 北京市

Abstract:

Residential care, as an option for elderly care, has developed at a fast speed in Beijing while the elderly population rapidly increases and available family care resources diminish. This study examines the spatial evolution of residential care facilities (RCFs) and impacts of government policies on their development in Beijing. Government documents, statistical and GIS data, literature analysis, and spatial analysis were used for the analysis. The results show that: (1) the development of residential care in Beijing has gone through four stages, including infancy(1953-1959), stagnation (1960-1977), growth (1978-1995), and prosperity (1996-2012).In each of these stages the facilities had different patterns of spatial distribution. (2) At the district/county level, the development and spatial distribution pattern of residential care facilities vary in time and space. At present, the RCFs in Yanqing, Huairou, Shunyi, Miyun, Pinggu, and Mentougou are in the growth stage and the spatial distribution patterns of RCFs in these districts (counties) exhibit typical characteristics of this stage. On the other hand, the RCFs in Changping, Fangshan, Daxing, and Tongzhou are in the stage of prosperity and the spatial distribution patterns correspond to features of this stage. (3) Government policies have impacts not only on the size of the RCFs, but also the development process and spatial distribution of RCFs. The distribution of public RCFs is more dispersed and the iragglomeration is not clear, while the private RCFs are relatively concentrated and mainly distributed in the six central districts, surrounding suburban districts, and some areas with attractive natural environment in the remote suburban districts. Agglomerations of private RCFs have been formed in Changping District and the northwestern area of Haidian District. The results of this study will provide knowledge for the future planning and policy making of RCFs in Beijing.

Key words: residential care facility, spatiotemporal evolution, policy impact, Beijing

席晶, 程杨. 北京市养老机构布局的时空演变及政策影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(9): 1187-1194.

Jing XI, Yang CHENG. Spatiotemporal evolution of residential care facilities in Beijing and policy impacts[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(9): 1187-1194.

图/表 5

参考文献 24

[1]	北京市第六次全国人口普查领导小组办公室. 2011. 北京市2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据情况[EB/OL]. 2011-05-05[2014-08-12]. .
	[Leading Group Office of Beijing's Sixth National Census. 2011. Beijingshi 2010 nian diliuci quanguo renkou pucha zhuyao shuju qingkuang[EB/OL]. 2011-05-05[2014-08-12]. .]
[2]	北京市规划委员会, 北京市民政局. 2010. 北京市养老设施专项规划[EB/OL]. 2010-11-25[2014-10-01]. .
	[Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Planning, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Civil Affairs. 2010. Beijingshi yanglao sheshi zhuanxiang guihua[EB/OL]. 2010-11-25[2014-10-01]. .]
[3]	陈功. 2003. 我国养老方式研究[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社.
	[Chen G.2003. Woguo yanglao fangshi yanjiu[M]. Beijing, China: Peking University Press.]
[4]	陈赛权. 2000. 中国养老模式研究综述[J]. 人口学刊,(3): 30-36, 51.
	[Chen S Q.2000. Zhongguo yanglao moshi yanjiu zongshu[J]. Population Journal,(3): 30-36, 51.]
[5]	陈彦光. 2009. 基于Moran统计量的空间自相关理论发展和方法改进[J]. 地理研究, 28(6): 1449-1463.
	[Chen Y G.2009. Reconstructing the mathematical process of spatial autocorrelation based on Moran' s statistics[J]. Geographical Research, 28(6): 1449-1463.]
[6]	戴维, 铃木博志, 长谷川直树. 2012. 北京养老服务机构入住理由及位置选择的初探: 关于合理布局建设养老服务机构[J]. 城市规划, 36(9): 77-84.
	[Dai W, Suzuki H, Hasegawa N.2012. Residence reasons and location selection of welfare facilities for the elderly in Beijing: the ideal way to allocate welfare facilities for the elderly[J]. City Planning Review, 36(9): 77-84.]
[7]	杜鹏, 翟振武, 陈卫. 2005. 中国人口老龄化百年发展趋势[J]. 人口研究, 29(6): 90-93.
	[Du P, Zhai Z W, Chen W.2005. The elderly population of China: a century-long projection[J]. Population Research, 29(6): 90-93.]
[8]	方鹏骞, 陈茂盛. 2001. 人口老龄化的内涵界定及世界人口老龄化趋势[J]. 国外医学: 社会医学分册, 18(2): 61-63.
	[Fang P Q, Chen M S.2001. Renkou laolinghua de neihan jieding ji shijie renkou laolinghua qushi[J]. Foreign Medical Sciences: Social Medicine Section, 18(2): 61-63.]
[9]	姜向群, 丁志宏, 秦艳艳. 2011. 影响我国养老机构发展的多因素分析[J]. 人口与经济,(4): 58-63, 69.
	[Jiang X Q, Ding Z H, Qin Y Y.2011. Analysis on factors impacting development of institutions for the aged[J]. Population & Economics,(4): 58-63, 69.]
[10]	李文君. 2011. 城市老年人养老服务需求及洛阳市养老机构的分析[J]. 中国老年学杂志, 31(13): 2541-2543.
	[Li W J.2011. Chengshi laonianren yanglao fuwu xuqiu ji Luoyangshi yanglao jigou de fenxi[J]. Chinese Journal of Gerontology, 31(13): 2541-2543. ]
[11]	林清清, 陈锦, 徐娜, 等. 2014. 杭州市养老机构现状及需求调查: 基于区域差异性的视角[J]. 现代物业, 13(5): 51-56.
	[Lin Q Q, Chen J, Xu N, et al.2014. Hangzhoushi yanglao jigou xianzhuang ji xuqiu diaocha: jiyu quyu chayixing de shijiao[J]. Modern Economics, 13(5): 51-56.]
[12]	路锦非. 2013. 中国老龄化高峰期对养老设施和医疗设施的需求: 以上海市为例[J]. 现代经济探讨, (1): 45-49.
	[Lu J F.2013. Zhongguo laolinghua gaofengqi dui yanglao sheshi he yiliao sheshi de xuqiu: yi Shanghaishi weili[J]. Modern Economic Research, (1): 45-49.]
[13]	穆光宗. 2000. 中国传统养老方式的变革和展望[J]. 中国人民大学学报, (5): 39-44.
	[Mu G Z.2000. Reform and prospect traditional pension plan for the aged in China[J]. Journal of Renmin University of China, (5): 39-44.]
[14]	上海市人民政府. 2014. 上海市养老机构条例[EB/OL]. 2014-02-26[2015-02-10]. .
	[Shanghai Municipal People's Government. 2014. Shanghaishi yanglao jigou tiaoli[EB/OL]. 2014-02-26[2015-02-10]. .]
[15]	陶卓霖, 程杨, 戴特奇. 2014. 北京市养老设施空间可达性评价[J]. 地理科学进展, 33(5): 616-624.
	[Tao Z L, Cheng Y, Dai T Q.2014. Measuring spatial accessibility to residential care facilities in Beijing[J]. Progress in Geography, 34(5): 616-624.]
[16]	万鲁河, 王绍巍, 陈晓红. 2011. 基于GeoDA的哈大齐工业走廊GDP空间关联性[J]. 地理研究, 30(6): 977-984.
	[Wan L H, Wang S W, Chen X H.2011. GeoDA-based spatial correlation analysis of GDP in Hadaqi industrial corridor[J]. Geographical Research, 30(6): 977-984.]
[17]	王洪娜. 2011. 山东农村老人入住社会养老机构的意愿与需求分析[J]. 东岳论丛, 32(9): 169-173.
	[Wang H N.2011. Shandong nongcun laoren ruzhu shehui yanglaojigou de yiyuan yu xuqiu fenxi[J]. Dongyue Tribune, 32(9): 169-173.]
[18]	肖云, 吕倩, 漆敏. 2012. 高龄老人入住养老机构意愿的影响因素研究: 以重庆市主城九区为例[J]. 西北人口, 33(2): 27-30, 35.
	[Xiao Y, Lv Q, Qi M.2012. Factors affecting the oldest old's willingness to entering institutions for elderly: a case study on the main city area of Chongqing[J]. Northwest Population Journal, 33(2): 27-30, 35.]
[19]	张河川, 岑小钰, 郭良骥. 2010. 养老机构老年人健康状况及服务需求调查[J]. 中国公共卫生, 26(4): 411-412.
	[Zhang H C, Cen X Y. Guo L J.2010. Health status and health care needs of elder people in resthome[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 26(4): 411-412. ]
[20]	张华, 韩琳琳, 孔子逸. 2012. 北京市养老服务机构的分布及其影响因素[J]. 吉林广播电视大学学报, (7):103-105.
	[Zhang H, Han L L, Kong Z Y.2012. Beijingshi yanglao fuwu jigou de fenbu jiqi yingxiang yinsu[J]. Journal of Jilin Radio and TV University, (7): 103-105.]
[21]	中华人民共和国民政部. 2001. 老年人社会福利机构基本规范[EB/OL]. 2014-07-31[2015-09-13]. .
	[Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China. 2001. Laonianren shehui fuli jigou jiben guifan[EB/OL]. 2014-07-31[2015-09-13]. .
[22]	Anselin L.1995. Local indicators of spatial association: LISA[J]. Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93-115.
[23]	Anselin L, Sridharan S, Gholston S.2007. Using exploratory spatial data analysis to leverage social indicator databases: the discovery of interesting patterns[J]. Social Indicator Research, 82(2): 287-309.
[24]	Tobler W.1970. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the detroit region[J]. Economic Geography, 46(2): 234-240.