土地市场化改革对城市工业用地规模变化的影响——基于国内46个大中城市的实证研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探讨土地市场化改革对工业用地规模变化的影响,对于推进中国的土地市场发展和优化工业用地配置有着重要的理论和现实意义。本文在探讨土地市场化改革对工业用地规模变化影响机理的基础上,通过构建计量经济模型,利用2000-2012年中国内地46个大中城市的面板数据,分析了土地市场化改革对工业用地规模变化的具体影响。结果显示,随着工业用地出让市场化程度的提高,公开、透明的市场机制对工业用地规模起到了遏制作用,政府在财政收入刺激下加大土地投放对工业用地规模的扩大也有一定作用,工业用地规模变化主要受市场机制和政府管理的双向驱动。进一步的,在第三产业占主导地位的城市,地价对工业用地规模扩张的约束比较明显;而在第二产业占主导地位、土地价格相对较低的城市,政府在财政收入考量下的土地投放对工业用地规模扩张起到了主要作用。最后从完善土地市场机制的角度提出了有助于工业用地优化配置的相关政策建议。

关键词: 土地市场, 市场化改革, 工业用地规模, 影响因素, 城市

Abstract:

Exploring the effects of market-oriented land reforms on the scale of industrial land use has a important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the reform of land market in China and optimizing the configuration of industrial land use. Based on an examination of the influence mechanism of market-oriented land reforms on industrial land scale, this study built an econometric model with the panel data of 46 cities in mainland China from 2000 to 2012, and tested and analyzed the specific effects of land marketization progresses on industrial land scales. The results show that, with the improvement of marketization level of industrial land transfer, open and transparent market mechanism played a certain role in restraining the increase of industrial land scale, while the government's increased land delivery owing to the financial revenue stimulus also had certain effect on the expansion of industrial land, therefore change in industrial land scale was driven by market mechanism and government management. In the cities with a dominant tertiary industry, the constraining effect of land price on industrial land scale expansion was obvious. While for the cities with a dominant secondary industry and a relatively low land price, the government's land delivery under financial revenue consideration played a main role on the expansion of industrial land scale. In order to optimize the industrial land configuration, it is recommended that industrial land transfer market mechanism should be improved as soon as possible.

Key words: land market, market-oriented reforms, industrial land scale, influencing factors, cities

刘力豪, 陈志刚, 陈逸. 土地市场化改革对城市工业用地规模变化的影响——基于国内46个大中城市的实证研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(9): 1179-1186.

Lihao LIU, Zhigang CHEN, Yi CHEN. Effects and mechanism of market-oriented land reforms on the scale of industrial land use:an empirical study on 46 cities in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(9): 1179-1186.

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变量	样本量	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准差
ILS	598	1.79	376.96	64.80	60.35
ILP	598	117.00	1701.00	508.51	235.10
ILM	598	0	1	0.46	0.50
LFR	598	5.68	3314.93	212.61	323.71
SIO	598	34.61	6663.56	1125.50	1087.69
INV	598	4.33 e+06	9.25e+07	1.25e+07	1.37e+07

解释变量	被解释变量(ILS)
解释变量	固定效应	随机效应
常数项	-18.461 (11.934)	-13.255^*** (10.508)
ILP	0.151^*** (0.035)	0.138^*** (0.029)
ILP²	-4.21e-06^*** (1.62e-06)	-4.39e-06^*** (1.49e-06)
ILM	-2.711 (3.867)	-2.329 (3.448)
LFR	0.048^*** (0.011)	0.058^*** (0.010)
SIO	0.024^*** (0.004)	0.025^*** (0.004)
INV	-1.31e-06^***	-1.44e-06^***
INV	(2.92e-07)	(2.84e-07)
R²	0.528	0.558
F检验/卡方检验	F=79.52	Wald chi2=542.61
样本量	598	598
Hausman检验	Prob>chi2=0.0041

解释变量	第一组(第三产业占主导城市样本)			第二组(第二产业占主导城市样本)
解释变量	固定效应		随机效应	固定效应	随机效应
常数项	7.004 (25.951)	6.739 (24.558)		7.811 (10.243)	8.698 (8.236)
ILP	-0.057 (0.088)	-0.023 (0.081)		0.075^** (0.032)	0.068^*** (0.024)
ILP²	2.35 e-05^*** (6.80 e-06)	1.68 e-05^*** (6.48 e-06)		-2.21 e-06^* (1.3 e-06)	-2.5e-06^** (1.14 e-06)
ILM	-6.540^* (6.797)	-5.516 (6.265)		1.313 (3.612)	-0.502 (3.167)
LFR	-0.118^*** (0.035)	-0.068^** (0.032)		0.048^** (0.020)	0.040^** (0.020)
SIO	0.071^*** (0.010)	0.066^*** (0.009)		0.016^*** (0.006)	0.021^*** (0.005)
INV	-1.88e-06^***	-2.07e-06^***		-7.09e-07^***	-7.98e-07^***
INV	(5.13e-07)	(5.07e-07)		(2.64e-07)	(2.61e-07)
R²	0.455	0.480		0.634	0.670
F检验/卡方检验	F=38.83	Wald chi2=252.88		F=77.61	Wald chi2=512.58
样本量	273	273		325	325
Hausman检验	chi2=13.66, Prob>chi2=0.0085			chi2=3.64, Prob>chi2=0.4573