关键词: 福建省, 空间差异, 人口老龄化, 时空演变, 影响因素

Abstract: Currently, the studies on domestic population aging mostly focus on the demographic effects and social effects, where the present state, the development process, the causes and the effects of population aging have been widely discussed from a non-spatial perspective. However, a growing number of studies shows that population aging also has significant spatial-temporal evolution characteristics that are as important as the economic and social development aspects. This article attempts to describe regional disparity of population aging process in a different perspective, i.e., regional spatial heterogeneity. With this objective, we collected the census data of Fujian in 1990, 2000 and 2010 and various relevant statistical data of corresponding years from the Fujian Statistical Yearbook. A population aging geographical database was established with these data and the sub-county level administrative map of Fujian Province using ArcGIS9.3. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods as well as Moran's I, Getis-Ord G_i^*, function of variogram, and GWR (geographical weighted regression) were applied to examine population aging disparity in Fujian since 1990, aiming to explore the spatial agglomeration pattern, the process of the evolution and the underlying dynamic mechanisms of the spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging distribution. The result provides further insight into the complexity and uncertainty of the regional disparity of population aging. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The county level population aging distribution of Fujian Province shows a strong spatial correlation with a downward temporal trend. (2) The spatial structures of hotspot and cold spot distributions also have clear differences. The hotspots moved from the coastal area to inland during the study period, while the cold spots shifted in the opposite direction, presenting reversed gradients. (3) In the overall variation, the influence of random factors has increased and structural difference has decreased. At the same time, regional spatial differences have become more significant, and the difference in the northwest-southeast direction was the primary contributor to the widening population aging regional disparity. (4) All factors that were considered affected population aging, but in different areas the direction and degree of influence varied considerably. In general, mortality rate and the number of hospital beds per thousand people played a positive role in prompting population aging, while birth rate, schooling years per capita, and immigration rate have an inhibitory influence on population aging. Per capita GDP affected population aging both positively and negatively. All in all, the dynamic mechanism of spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging in Fujian Province has been extensively and quantitatively examined in this study from a spatial variability perspective. Admittedly, what have been discussed in this paper are far from complete, especially the population aging evaluation indexes—different evaluation indexes and variables may lead to some differences in parameter estimation and evaluation result. Further research should examine the appropriateness of indexes for evaluating population aging.

Key words: Fujian Province, influencing factors, population aging, spatial differentiation, spatial-temporal change