地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 605-615.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.05.002

• 人口与健康地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

1990-2010年福建省县域人口老龄化时空演变特征及其驱动机制

张开洲1,2, 陈楠1,2   

  1. 1. 福州大学福建省空间信息工程研究中心, 福州350002;
    2. 福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室, 福州350002
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-01 修回日期:2014-01-01 出版日期:2014-05-25 发布日期:2014-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 陈楠(1975-),男,福建厦门人,副研究员,主要从事人口与经济交叉学科领域研究,E-mail:fjcn99@163.com。 E-mail:fjcn99@163.com
  • 作者简介:张开洲(1989-),男,甘肃武威人,硕士生,主要研究方向为地理空间分析与增值服务,E-mail:zkzsirc1989@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2011J01268);福建省社会科学规划项目(2007B2067)。

Characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution in population aging and driving mechanism at county level in Fujian Province during 1990-2010

ZHANG Kaizhou1,2, CHEN Nan1,2   

  1. 1. Spatial Information Research Center of Fujian, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China;
    2. Key Lab of Spatial Data Mining & Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China
  • Received:2013-10-01 Revised:2014-01-01 Online:2014-05-25 Published:2014-05-25

摘要: 将探索性空间数据分析方法应用于人口老龄化区域差异研究,以福建省为例,分析1990-2010年间县域人口老龄化时空演变特征,并探讨导致格局演变的驱动机制。结果表明:① 人口老龄化的总体空间格局存在较强的空间正相关性,但空间集聚有所减弱。② 热点区(高度热点区)由沿海向内陆演进,属跃迁式突变;边缘区发展方向刚好相反,属收缩式渐变。③ 总变异中随机性因素增大,结构化分异减弱;区域空间差异愈发显著,主要体现在西北—东南方向上。④ 各类因素对不同地区人口老龄化的影响程度和方向各不相同,但在空间上按一定的方向产生具有一定规律性的分化。总体而言,死亡率和每千人拥有病床数对人口老龄化贡献为正,出生率、人均受教育年限及迁入率具有抑制作用,而人均GDP对人口老龄化既有推动也有抑制作用。

关键词: 福建省, 空间差异, 人口老龄化, 时空演变, 影响因素

Abstract: Currently, the studies on domestic population aging mostly focus on the demographic effects and social effects, where the present state, the development process, the causes and the effects of population aging have been widely discussed from a non-spatial perspective. However, a growing number of studies shows that population aging also has significant spatial-temporal evolution characteristics that are as important as the economic and social development aspects. This article attempts to describe regional disparity of population aging process in a different perspective, i.e., regional spatial heterogeneity. With this objective, we collected the census data of Fujian in 1990, 2000 and 2010 and various relevant statistical data of corresponding years from the Fujian Statistical Yearbook. A population aging geographical database was established with these data and the sub-county level administrative map of Fujian Province using ArcGIS9.3. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods as well as Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi*, function of variogram, and GWR (geographical weighted regression) were applied to examine population aging disparity in Fujian since 1990, aiming to explore the spatial agglomeration pattern, the process of the evolution and the underlying dynamic mechanisms of the spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging distribution. The result provides further insight into the complexity and uncertainty of the regional disparity of population aging. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The county level population aging distribution of Fujian Province shows a strong spatial correlation with a downward temporal trend. (2) The spatial structures of hotspot and cold spot distributions also have clear differences. The hotspots moved from the coastal area to inland during the study period, while the cold spots shifted in the opposite direction, presenting reversed gradients. (3) In the overall variation, the influence of random factors has increased and structural difference has decreased. At the same time, regional spatial differences have become more significant, and the difference in the northwest-southeast direction was the primary contributor to the widening population aging regional disparity. (4) All factors that were considered affected population aging, but in different areas the direction and degree of influence varied considerably. In general, mortality rate and the number of hospital beds per thousand people played a positive role in prompting population aging, while birth rate, schooling years per capita, and immigration rate have an inhibitory influence on population aging. Per capita GDP affected population aging both positively and negatively. All in all, the dynamic mechanism of spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging in Fujian Province has been extensively and quantitatively examined in this study from a spatial variability perspective. Admittedly, what have been discussed in this paper are far from complete, especially the population aging evaluation indexes—different evaluation indexes and variables may lead to some differences in parameter estimation and evaluation result. Further research should examine the appropriateness of indexes for evaluating population aging.

Key words: Fujian Province, influencing factors, population aging, spatial differentiation, spatial-temporal change

中图分类号: 

  • C922