地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 593-604.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.05.001

• 人口与健康地理 •    下一篇

人口集聚区吸纳人口迁入的影响因素——以东莞市为例

吕晨1, 孙威2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学科技管理学院, 北京100049;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    3. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-01 修回日期:2014-04-01 出版日期:2014-05-25 发布日期:2014-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 孙威(1975-),男,河南开封人,博士,副研究员,主要从事区域发展与空间规划研究,E-mail:sunw@igsnrr.ac.cn。 E-mail:sunw@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:吕晨(1982-),女,黑龙江勃利人,博士,讲师,主要从事区域规划与战略环境影响评价研究,E-mail:lvchen@ucas.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41101138);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M510409);中国科学院大学校长基金项目(Y25102MN00)。

Impacting factors of population agglomeration areas on migration:a case study in Dongguan City

LV Chen1, SUN Wei2,3   

  1. 1. College of Technology Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Regional Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2013-12-01 Revised:2014-04-01 Online:2014-05-25 Published:2014-05-25

摘要: 人口集聚区的地域特征差异对人口迁移行为产生较大影响,从地域特征出发研究人口集聚区对于迁入人口的作用机制可为地域功能区划和配置公共服务设施提供参考。本文以人口迁移的推拉理论为基础,构建人口集聚区对迁入人口拉力作用的指标体系。以东莞市为案例,综合运用主成分分析和多元回归分析方法,识别人口集聚区对迁入人口的作用力以及各类拉力的作用强度。结果显示:① 东莞市各乡镇人口集聚程度差异较大,且空间分布不均衡;在1995-2000年全市人口迅速集聚期,区域人口集聚度主要与地区就业岗位增加、人均收入水平提高、人口迁移的路径依赖相关。② 该市以劳动密集型加工业为主的产业特色给迁入人口提供了更多的就业机会;其相对较高的工资水平,对外来人口形成了强大的吸引力。③ 人口以路径依赖的形式进行链式迁移可以减低迁移过程中的风险和成本。④ 对人口集聚作用由强到弱依次为:路径依赖拉力、就业岗位拉力、收入水平拉力;综合的区域拉力与人口集聚度呈三次曲线关系。

关键词: 东莞市, 就业岗位, 空间分异, 路径依赖, 人口集聚, 收入水平

Abstract: Differences in characteristics of population agglomeration areas significantly affect migration. Research on the effect of location-specific characteristics of population agglomeration areas on migration would enrich the study of population geography and provide references for territorial function zoning and the provision of public service facilities. This article explores the effect of pull factors of population agglomeration areas on migration by investigating immigration in Dongguan, Guangdong Province in the period between 1995 and 2000, when the number of immigrants increased most rapidly. Based on the classic push and pull theory, an indicator system was built to calculate the pulling effect of population agglomeration areas. The relationship between different pull factors and population aggregation was analyzed using principle component analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results show that population aggregation varied greatly between different towns and its distribution was spatially uneven in Dongguan. There was a very large number of immigrants aggregated during 1995-2000 and the population aggregation was affected by employment opportunities, per capita income, and the migration path dependence in different towns. The large number of labor-intensive manufacturing industries characterized the industrial development in Dongguan, which provided great employment opportunities for migrant workers from areas lacking job opportunities. The large number of specialized industrial towns gained economies of agglomeration, which led to rapid economy growth and high salary that attracted lots of immigrants to the city. Migration path dependence also affected the immigration. The migrants often followed their predecessors' destination choices. This imitative behavior comes from the consideration of reducing migration risk and cost. These migrants are often countrymen or relatives. The early immigrants often help the late comers for example by introducing the latter to the companies they work and sometime providing accommodations for the new comers. Areas absorbed immigration in earlier period would attract more immigrants in the next period because of the migration path dependence. The regressive equation of the comprehensive pulling force and population aggregation was a cubic curve. The relative importance of the three pull factors to population aggregation, from most significant to least significant, is migration path dependence, employment opportunities, and per capita income. As a typical population aggregation area, Dongguan attracted a large number of immigrants. At the same time, some push factors such as the household registration system, high level of consumption and high housing price also expel the immigrants. This paper does not discuss the push factors because these factors are difficult to quantify, and the expelling force was less than the pulling force in areas of population aggregation. In addition, this paper only focuses on the immigration in Dongguan between 1995 and 2000. Surplus labor during this time period in China was abundant. Therefore, migration path dependence was significant. These three factors may affect migration differently in a different time period and a new relationship would require more empirical studies to test.

Key words: Dongguan City, employment opportunities, migration path dependence, per capita income level, population aggregation, spatial variation

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3