地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 542-551.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.011

• 农村发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Logistic-ISM模型的农户采用新技术影响因素——以甘肃省定西市马铃薯种植技术为例

李楠楠1, 李同昇1, 于正松1, 芮旸1, 苗园园1, 李永胜2   

  1. 1. 西北大学城市与环境学院, 西安 710127;
    2. 中冶地集团西北岩土工程有限公司, 西安 710119
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-01 修回日期:2014-02-01 出版日期:2014-04-25 发布日期:2014-04-25
  • 作者简介:李楠楠(1987- ),女,陕西西安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域经济,E-mail:linan3596@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271131)。

Factors influencing farmers' adoption of new technology based on Logistic-ISM model:a case study of potato planting technology in Dingxi City, Gansu Province

LI Nannan1, LI Tongsheng1, YU Zhengsong1, RUI Yang1, MIAO Yuanyuan1, LI Yongsheng2   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environment Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China;
    2. Northwest Geotechnical Engineering Limited Company, China Metallurgical Group, Xi'an 710119, China
  • Received:2013-07-01 Revised:2014-02-01 Online:2014-04-25 Published:2014-04-25
  • Contact: 李同昇(1960- ),男,陕西岐山人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事经济地理学研究,E-mail:Leetang@nwu.edu.cn。 E-mail:Leetang@nwu.edu.cn

摘要: 利用Logistic 回归模型和ISM 解释结构模型,基于575 份调查问卷数据,分析定西市马铃薯技术扩散过程中,影响农户采用行为的显著因素,探讨各个因素之间的层次关系。结果表明:① 农户采用马铃薯种植新技术主要受到农户自身变量、行为认知变量、生产经营变量、资源禀赋变量和环境特征变量五大类特征变量的影响;②Logistic 回归分析表明,农户的文化程度、家庭结构、专业化程度、组织程度、对科技园区的认知、对新技术的认知、农业收入、气候生产力、地形、公路级别和区位为农户采用马铃薯新技术时的显著影响因素;③ ISM解释结构模型表明,定西市农户采用马铃薯种植新技术过程中,受到众多因素的显著影响。其中专业化程度、农业收入、公路级别、气候生产力、地形和区位为表层因素,农户对科技园区的认知、对新技术的认知为中层间接因素,农户的文化程度、组织程度和家庭结构为深层根源因素。基于以上结论,笔者认为应加大订单农业的发展力度,重构扩散模式,采用“企业牵头、政府扶持、农户参与”的环形扩散模式,可以有效提高农户采用新技术的积极性,对提高农业技术扩散效率具有重要意义。

关键词: ISM模型, Logistic回归模型, 甘肃省定西市, 马铃薯技术, 农户行为

Abstract: Farmers are the demanders and users of agricultural technology. Only when farmers accept, assimilate and use new technologies, can agricultural science and technology achievements be transformed into practical productive forces. So, it is worth paying attention to what farmers need, which factors influence farmers' behavior significantly and the relationship between these factors. To address these questions and understand the mechanisms of influence, we take potato planting technology adoption in Dingxi City, Gansu Province as an example. Questionnaire survey and interview were conducted to acquire data. Based on 575 survey samples, a Logistic regression model and the interpretative structure model (ISM), we analyze the significant factors influencing farmers' adoption behavior in the process of potato planting technology diffusion, and investigate the relationship among the various factors. The results are as follows. (1) Farmers' behaviors of adopting new potato planting technology is affected by five major characteristic variables, including farmers' background, awareness, production management, resource endowment, and environmental characteristics. These variables influence farmers' behavior to various degrees. (2) The result of Logistic regression shows that farmers' level of education, family structure, degree of specialization, degree of organization, awareness of science and technology park, awareness of new technology, agricultural income, climatic productivity, topography of the planting areas, grade of nearby roads and location are significant factors influencing farmers' adoption behavior. (3) The ISM model shows that there are various factors influencing farmers' adoption behavior, and these factors are at different levels of a hierarchy, which are interrelated and independent. Among these factors, degree of specialization, agricultural income, climatic productivity, location, terrain, and grade of nearby roads are the direct influencing factors. Awareness of science and technology park and awareness of new technology are the indirect factors. Education of farmers, family structure and the degree of organization are the root influencing factors. Based on these results, we recommend strengthening the development of production by orders from business and consumers, reconstructing diffusion model and adopting the annular diffusion model of "leading by enterprises, supporting by the government and participating by farmers". These measures will improve the enthusiasm of farmers to adopt new technology effectively. In addition, it is necessary to raise the farmers' awareness of science park and new technology and expand the range of influence of the Dingxi Agricultural Science and Technology Park, especially for the information-deprived remote villages, and enable them to be exposed to new technologies promptly and adequately. Likewise, strengthening infrastructure development and increasing agricultural income also should not be overlooked. Improving incentive structures can encourage farmers to adopt new technology. The government should invest in transportation infrastructure and improve accessibility to attract business and optimize the sales channels of agricultural products. Future research of rural agricultural technology diffusion should be directed toward these directions.

Key words: Dingxi City, Gansu Province, farmers' behavior, ISM model, Logistic regression model, potato planting technology

中图分类号: 

  • S3-33