地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 517-530.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.009

• 农村发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素

龙冬平, 李同昇, 苗园园, 刘超, 李晓越, 孟欢欢   

  1. 西北大学城市与环境学院, 西安 710127
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-01 修回日期:2014-02-01 出版日期:2014-04-25 发布日期:2014-04-25
  • 作者简介:龙冬平(1985- ),男,湖南邵阳人,硕士生,主要研究方向为区域发展与城乡规划,E-mail:longdongping2012@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271131);教育部国家级特色专业建设项目(TS12489)。

Spatio-temporal characteristics and impacting factors of non-agriculturalization of China’s rural population

LONG Dongping, LI Tongsheng, MIAO Yuanyuan, LIU Chao, LI Xiaoyue, MENG Huanhuan   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
  • Received:2013-09-01 Revised:2014-02-01 Online:2014-04-25 Published:2014-04-25
  • Contact: 李同昇(1960- ),男,陕西岐山人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事经济地理学研究,E-mail:leetang@nwu.edu.cn。 E-mail:leetang@nwu.edu.cn

摘要: 基于交叉学科视角,结合改革开放以来的统计数据,综合运用探索性空间数据分析与偏最小二乘回归分析等方法,对中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:① 中国农村人口非农化的时间维度具有明显的阶段性特征,自1978 以来,全国与“四大板块”先后经历了倒“U”型增长→波动增长→平稳增长3 个阶段的演替;② 中国农村人口非农化的空间维度具有明显的分异演化特征;③ 中国农村人口非农化增长的热点区域存在显著的空间极化现象,即增长热点先后历经了“两核集聚”→“一核极化”→“中心辐射递减”的时空演变;④ 中国农村人口非农化的时空差异主要受工业化水平、城镇化水平、服务业发展水平、受教育水平和农业现代化水平等5 个因子影响,并且各因子在不同时期的作用大小存在显著差异;⑤ 面对转型期中国农村人口非农化新形势与新挑战,地理学界在理论成果及应对措施方面应该作出更多贡献。

关键词: 非农化, 空间自相关, 农村人口, 偏最小二乘回归法, 时空演变, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract: Rural population non- agriculturalization is a geographical phenomenon conforming to the development trend and social progress of rural areas, and its study can provide important insights on the modernization of Chinese agriculture, acceleration of urban development, and resolution of the "Three Rural Issues". China's rural population non-agriculturalization reflects the evolution of the economic and social structures of the countryside. The prominent feature of this change is the transfer of rural laborers to non-agricultural sectors on a large scale. According to the "Report on the Development of China's Floating Population in 2010", China's proportion of non-agricultural employment will reach 65% by 2015 and 70% by 2020; the population of urban residents will rise to 77% by 2050, which means that hundred millions of rural population will transform into urban residents in the next 30 or 40 years. From a cross-disciplinary perspective, this study uses statistical data since the reform and opening up of the late 1970s and the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis methods to explore the spatial-temporal patterns of the rural population non-agriculturalization process and its impacting factors, for making appropriate policies and taking proper measures to facilitate the future development of non-agricultural employment of the rural population. The results indicate that: (1) In the temporal dimension, the non-agriculturalization of rural population has experienced three distinctive stages: nationwide and in the four regions, its growth rate has gone through an "inverted U- shaped" process of growth→fluctuating growth→steady growth since 1978. (2) Spatially, China's rural population non-agriculturalization shows clear regional differences. (3) Rural population non-agriculturalization has an apparent spatial polarization character—the growth hotspots moved from the north to the south and then to the central region, that is, the growth hotspots were first in two core agglomerations, then concentrated in one core area, and later diffused from a center of growth to the periphery in declining intensity. (4) The spatio-temporal differences of China's rural population non-agriculturalization is mainly controlled by the level of industrialization, urbanization, development of service industries, education, and agricultural modernization and the interaction of these factors, and the role each factor played during different time periods varied significantly. (5) Confronted with the new situations and challenges of non-agriculturalization of rural population in the transitional period at present, the research community of geography should come up with necessary theoretical frameworks for the study of this process and countermeasures for problems that occur.

Key words: China, impacting factor, non-agriculturalization, partial least square regression, rural population, spatial autocorrelation, spatio-temporal evolution

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3