地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 457-466.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.003

• 城市与交通地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市化与非农就业增长的空间格局及关系类型

罗奎1,2, 方创琳1, 马海涛1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-01 修回日期:2014-02-01 出版日期:2014-04-25 发布日期:2014-04-25
  • 作者简介:罗奎(1986- ),男,四川宁南人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域与城市规划,E-mail:iamluokui@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD027);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41201128)。

Spatial pattern and relationship between China’s urbanization and non-agriculture employment growth

LUO Kui1,2, FANG Chuanglin1, MA Haitao1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2013-10-01 Revised:2014-02-01 Online:2014-04-25 Published:2014-04-25
  • Contact: 方创琳(1966- ),男,甘肃庆阳人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事城市发展与城市规划等研究,E-mail:fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn。 E-mail:fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn

摘要: 城市化与就业是中国目前经济社会发展中的热点问题,充分认识城市化与就业之间相互作用关系对于指导中国城市化与就业健康有序发展具有现实意义。在梳理中国城市人口与就业统计口径变更的基础上,选用第五、第六次人口普查及相关统计年鉴数据,利用莫兰指数和地理加权回归探讨中国地级行政单元尺度城市化与非农就业增长的空间特征及相互关系。研究表明:① 2000-2010 年间中国城市化与非农就业均呈现出快速增长的趋势,绝对增长均表现为大城市主导,相对增长则表现出向中心城市周边扩散的趋势;② 莫兰指数揭示出中国2000-2010 年间城市化与非农就业增长空间分布呈现出极化趋势,且两者空间分布格局类似;③ 通过对地理加权模型回归系数划分得到各区域城市化与非农就业增长的关系类型,全国大部分地区城市化与非农就业呈现出协调发展的趋势,城市化滞后区域主要有青海、甘肃中东部及四川盆地中部,重庆、新疆以及部分省会城市出现了一定程度的城市化超前。据此提出,各地区应根据自身实际情况,制订差异化的城市化发展战略。

关键词: 城市化, 地理加权回归(GWR), 非农就业, 空间格局, 中国

Abstract: Urbanization and employment are both key issues in China's current socioeconomic development; it is of practical significance to fully understand the interaction between these two key aspects of development for the purpose of facilitating a healthy and orderly transition of the Chinese economy and society. Using the Chenery model, existing studies have explored the interrelationship between urbanization level and non-agricultural employment in China but relatively little attention was paid to the issue of data quality. Therefore, based on a thorough understanding of statistic caliber changes in China's urban population and employment statistics, this paper used the data from the fifth census, the sixth census and relevant statistical yearbooks and employs the Moran's I index to investigate the spatial characteristics of urbanization and non-agricultural employment growth of prefecture- level administrative divisions of China; it also uses the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to analyze the relationship between these two factors. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Both China's urbanization and non- agricultural employment experienced considerable development during 2000- 2010, with urban population and non- agricultural employment increased by 13.46% and 14.18%, respectively; the growth was mainly distributed in the southeastern part of the country, with megacities leading the absolute growth and cities around megacities showing a faster relative growth. (2) The Moran's I index reveals that the spatial distribution of China's urbanization and non-agricultural employment growth show a polarized trend, and they have similar spatial distribution patterns; three regions had both high urbanization rate and high non-agricultural employment growth: the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area. Meanwhile, Tibet, Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, western Inner Mongolia and parts of Northeast China had both low urbanization rate and low non-agricultural employment development. (3) There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in China's urbanization and non-agricultural employment growth and spatial econometric models are needed to analyze their relationship. GWR was employed to reflect the regional differences of non- agricultural employment growth in promoting urbanization. By classifying the correlation coefficient the types of relationship between urbanization and non-agricultural employment growth of different regions can be determined. Urbanization and non-agricultural employment development are well coordinated in most parts of China. But Qinghai Province, the eastern part of Gansu Province and central Sichuan Basin show a trend of under- urbanization; Chongqing Municipality and its surrounding areas, Xinjiang and some provincial capital cities show a trend of over-urbanization. Thus, local governments should adopt different development policies that are in line with local conditions in promoting the development of urbanization and employment growth.

Key words: China, GWR, non-agriculture employment, spatial pattern, urbanization

中图分类号: 

  • K901