中国区域经济波动与经济增长关系

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.10.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

区域经济波动与经济增长的关系研究对中国经济的持续稳定增长具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于1978-2007 年中国省级区域横截面和面板2 种数据格式，运用相应的计量模型对我国区域经济波动与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究，发现：①我国区域经济波动对经济增长的负作用在时间—空间2 个维度上均显著，但随改革开放的推进，经济波动对经济增长的负作用呈逐渐减小趋势；②金融深化和市场化程度的加深有利于减小经济波动对增长的负作用，各地区金融深化和市场化程度的差异造成了波动—增长关系的地区异质性，这种异质性主要表现在不同地区经济波动对经济增长负面影响的强度上；③控制经济波动的内生性后，经济波动对经济增长的负作用有被放大的倾向，考虑经济波动内生性时，中国经济波动程度提高1%，会导致经济增长率降低0.125%。

关键词: 金融深化, 经济波动, 经济增长, 面板数据模型, 市场化程度, 中国

Abstract:

The existence of a relationship between short-term fluctuations or economic volatility and economic growth has essential macroeconomic and regional development policy implications, as it suggests the possibility that policies designed to stabilize short-term fluctuations might also have effects on the long-term performance of the economy. Depending mainly on whether this relationship is negative or positive, there is the presumption that successful stabilization would also entail either an improvement or deterioration in growth prospects. This paper aims to provide the general empirical evidences on regional economic volatility’s impact on regional economic growth in China. Based on the panel data set of 28 provinces in Chinese mainland over the period from 1978 to 2007 and on the cross-sectional data, using the corresponding econometric methods, we find that: (1) There is a robust negative relationship between regional economic volatility and regional economic growth in both temporal and spatial dimensions, although the magnitude of this negative effect is decreasing with the deepening of China’s reform and opening-up. Specifically, during 1978-1993, one percent increase of economic volatility would lead to the decrease of economic growth rate by 0.024%, while it only led to the decrease of 0.020% between 1994-2007 in our one way fixed effect panel data models. (2) The advancing process of financial and market-oriented development alleviates the negative effect imposed by economic volatility on long-term growth and the heterogeneous effect of volatility on growth in different regions caused by different levels of regional financial development and market-oriented development differs only in magnitude. This also shows the robust negative relationship between economic volatility and the growth in the spatial dimension. (3) In the Schumpeterian Waves analysis, we find strong evidence to reject the hypothesis that economic volatility is exogenous, and we use the fixed effect two stage least square method proposed by Keane and Runkle to capture the true impact of economic volatility on economic growth. Once we account for simultaneous and reverse causation in the economic volatility-growth relationship, the negative effect is magnified to a large extent. As a matter of fact, in the financial models, without considering the nonlinear effect of financial development, one percent increase of economic volatility will decrease the economic growth rate by 0.125%. Therefore, implementation of stable macroeconomic and regional development policies is beneficial to the long-term economic growth, especially in China.

Key words: China, financial deepening, long-term economic growth, market-oriented reform, panel data models, volatility

董冠鹏, 郭腾云, 马静. 中国区域经济波动与经济增长关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(10): 1233-1238.

DONG Guanpeng, GUO Tengyun, MA Jing. Impacts of Volatility on Economic Growth: Some Evidence from China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 29(10): 1233-1238.

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