渭河流域人地关系地域系统模拟

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.10.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以渭河流域(干流地区)为例，以水资源利用为主线，利用系统动力学方法，建立了渭河流域人地关系地域系统动态仿真模型，并利用Venple 软件，选取经济高速发展模式、缺水反馈模式、缺水污染反馈模式、调水耦合模式等4 种方案对该系统进行调控实验。结果表明：与传统的数理模型比较，利用系统动力学模型对流域人地关系地域系统进行模拟更能够反映出流域系统的非线性、高阶次和反馈性的特征，可以较好的模拟流域水资源、污染和经济发展的耦合关系；通过对4 种情形下建立的不同模式的运行结果进行比较，发现在经济高速发展模型中经济发展速度最快，但是加重了生态环境的负担，同时水资源和经济的矛盾会急剧恶化；缺水反馈模式和缺水污染反馈模式考虑了资源和环境的限制，是对经济高速发展模式的完善；调水调控模式将区外水资源引入渭河流域，在一定程度上减轻了环境和资源压力，经济保持一定的增长速度，是最接近实际，也是目前对渭河流域人地系统进行调控最可取的方案。建议政府部门在政策制定时考虑经济、资源、环境的统筹发展，综合考虑各种约束条件可能对区域发展造成的影响，使决策更为科学合理。

关键词: 仿真模拟, 人地关系地域系统, 渭河流域, 系统动力学

Abstract:

Taking the Wei River Basin (mainstream) as a case, a dynamic model of man-land areal system has been established using SD method and Vensim PLE software and taking utilization of water resources as the main clues. Through adjustment of water utilization and pollution index, four scenarios of the simulations during 2005-2025 have been established, which are the high-speed economic development mode, the water-lack feedback mode, the water-lack and environment-pollution feedback mode, and the water diversion coupling mode. The results show that, firstly, system dynamic model is a very useful tool for simulating the man-land relationship in a river basin. It is quite easy to reflect the characters of nonlinear relations, feedback and changeability of the system. Secondly, based on the analysis of the four scenarios, it can be concluded that the economic development is the fastest in the high-speed economic development mode, however, the burden of ecological environment will aggravate, as well as the water, social and economic conditions will get worse sharply. Social and economic developing speed can be regulated by water resources bearing capacity in the water-lack feed back mode, but in some degree economic development will be limited. The water resource limitation and environment pollution are considered in the water-stortage and environment-pollution feedback mode, in which the social and environment development is the slowest. This mode can improve the conditions of water stortage and environmental pollution in a short time, while the slow economic development will suppress the capital accumulation, and will also aggravate the man-land contradiction. The water-lack feedback mode and the water-lack and environment- pollution feedback mode are the supplement of the high-speed economic development mode. The water diversion coupling model diverts water resources into the Wei River Basin, by which the situation of water shortage can be improved, also the economic development can keep increasing at a sustainable high speed, and it is an effective way to balance the man-land relationship in the Wei River Basin. Therefore, in order to make decisions more reasonably, it is important for the government to consider the overall development of economy, resource and environment in decision making.

Key words: analogue simulation, man-land areal system, system dynamic model, Wei River Basin

张洁,李同昇,王武科. 渭河流域人地关系地域系统模拟[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(10): 1178-1184.

ZHANG Jie, LI Tongsheng,WANG Wuke. The Simulation of Man-land Areal System in the Wei River Basin[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 29(10): 1178-1184.

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