地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 684-692.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.007

• 区域经济与交通 • 上一篇    下一篇

地震经济损失评估研究综述

叶珊珊,翟国方   

  1. 南京大学城市与区域规划系, 南京210093
  • 收稿日期:2009-10-01 修回日期:2010-01-01 出版日期:2010-06-25 发布日期:2010-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 翟国方(1964-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为城市规划、城市防灾、风险管理. E-mail: guofang.zhai@gmail.com E-mail:guofang.zhai@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:叶珊珊(1985-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为城市防灾、风险管理.E-mail: yss1456@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中欧城市与区域合作研究计划项目(FP7 -230824 ECURBS); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973) 项目(2010CB428506);教育部"留学回国人员启动基金"项目;江苏省"六大人才高峰"高层次人才项目;南京大学"高层次引进人才"基金项目.

A Review on Seismic Economic Loss Estimation

YE Shanshan,ZHAI Guofang   

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2009-10-01 Revised:2010-01-01 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-06-25

摘要:

地震经济损失评估是地震风险分析研究的重要组成部分,也是政府制定地震风险防范管理措施的基础和 依据,因此如何准确评估地震造成的经济损失,具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章回顾了国内外地震经济损失评估 研究的发展进程,对地震造成的直接经济损失、间接经济损失的评估方法进行了概括和总结,并通过分析指出运用 模型评估时存在的困难和以待解决的问题。从总体上来看,国内外对于地震直接经济损失的研究均已形成了较为 稳定的、系统的评估方法,但仍然存在无法整合社会经济这一整体进行评估的不足;而在间接经济损失评估时由于 涉及领域广泛、受影响时间较长、各经济体间联系复杂等原因,很难得出较为精准的结果,因而其评估方法也仍然 处于探索和研究之中。文章最后展望了今后地震经济损失评估研究的发展方向。

关键词: 地震经济损失, 间接经济损失评估方法, 直接经济损失评估方法

Abstract:

Risk is usually defined as the product of the probability and the consequence, so seismic economic loss estimation is an important component of seismic risk analysis. What's more, a reasonable loss estimation is a foundation and basis for the government to take earthquake risk prevention management measures. Therefore, how to accurately estimate the economic loss caused by the earthquake has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper reviews the development process of seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad. The evaluation methods of direct and indirect economic loss caused by earthquake are summarized. The existing difficulties to use the model to estimate the seismic economic loss and problems to be solved are also pointed out. Seismic economic loss comprises two parts: direct economic loss and indirect economic loss. Direct economic loss generally refers to the decrease in physical property, including the damage of buildings, indoor property and infrastructure. Generally speaking, the research on direct seismic economic loss estimation, domestically or internationally, has already formed stable and systematic methods, but the problem is that it is still unable to integrate overall socio-economic entirely into seismic economic loss estimation. Indirect economic loss often consists of loss from factory's production interpretation, inter-industry loss, and the loss due to breaking the equilibrium state of the original economic system by seismic disaster. The research on indirect seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad is still in the stage of constant exploration and improvement due to many reasons such as the wide range of affected areas, long time of impact and recovery, and the complex linkages among the economies, which result in that the indirect seismic economic loss estimation can't provide a more accurate result. Finally, this paper discusses the prospects for the development of study on the seismic economic loss estimation in the future.

Key words: estimation method of direct economic loss, estimation method of indirect economic loss, seismic economic loss