地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 677-683.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.006

• 区域经济与交通 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国气候变化对县域粮食产量影响的计量经济分析

黄维1,2,3, 邓祥征1,2, 何书金1, 林英志1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2009-12-01 修回日期:2010-02-01 出版日期:2010-06-25 发布日期:2010-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 邓祥征(1971-),男,博士,副研究员,从事土地系统变化与效应、区域环境变化与政策研究. E-mail: dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:黄维(1985-),女,研究生,研究方向为空间计量经济模型与应用.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(70503025);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx2-yw-305-2; KZCX1-YW-09-04); 国家科技支撑项目(2008BAK47B02);973 国家科技支撑计划(2010CB9550904).

An Econometric Analysis on the Impacts of Climatic Change on Grain Production at Counties of China

HUANG Wei1,2,3, DENG Xiangzheng1,2, HE Shujin1, LIN Yingzhi1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2009-12-01 Revised:2010-02-01 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-06-25

摘要:

利用中国1988、1995、2000 和2005 年县级面板数据构建了包含气候变化因素、投入要素、自然环境条件变 量的面板数据随机效应计量模型,并利用该模型研究了中国县域气候变化(主要以1988-2005 年间气温、降水变动) 对粮食产量的影响。研究表明,从整体上看,一定幅度内的气温上升和降水增加对我国粮食产量变动有正向作用。 将气温、降水变动的影响分解到不同省份上后,可以发现气温、降水变动对中国县域粮食产量的影响存在明显的区 域分异特征。气温上升和降水量的增加对中国东北、华北以及西北部省份的粮食产量提升有利,对其他省区则会产 生小幅负面影响。对气温、降水变动分季进行考察的结果表明,气温、降水变动对中国县域粮食产量的影响存在季 节性差异,譬如春季气温变动对中国县域粮食产量的影响并不显著,但是夏、秋、冬3 季的气温对中国县域粮食产 量有显著的影响,不过其影响的程度与效果各异。春、夏两季降水对中国粮食产量变化存在显著影响。

关键词: 计量经济分析, 粮食产量, 面板数据模型, 气候变化, 随机效应模型, 县域, 中国

Abstract:

This paper aims to explore the relationship between the fluctuations of climate change identified by annually fluctuations of air temperature and precipitation during the study time period and the changes of grain production at counties of China by using panel data models, based on survey data across all counties in 31 provinces (except for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau) for the four time periods of 1988, 1995, 2000 and 2005, which consists of climate variables, social and economic variables and geophysical variables. The estimation results show that the average impacts of air temperatures and the precipitation are positive. However, based on panel data models regressed at the scale of different provinces, marginal increases in temperature and rainfall have very different effects on grain production in different regions. Warming is beneficial to the North China, Northwest China and Northeast China; in contrast, higher temperatures are harmful to grain production in the South and East China. More rain is likely to be beneficial to the Northeast China, Northwest China and Central China, but will harm farmers in the remaining regions. Marginal increases in temperature and rainfall have very different effects in different seasons. For example, there aren't distinct impacts of spring temperature on grain production. However, based on the panel data model consisting of seasonal climate variables, results suggest that the average higher temperature in summer and winter is negative for grain production in China, but drastic raise of temperature in summer and winter is beneficial to grain production. In contrast, the impact of average autumn temperature is opposite to that of summer and winter. Except for the impacts of rainfall in spring and summer on grain production, the impacts of rainfall in other seasons on grain production aren't distinct. The results suggest that social factors and geophysical factors may affect the grain production to a certain extent as well.

Key words: China, climate change, counties, econometric analysis, grain production, panel data model, randomeffects model