地理科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 245-252.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.02.012

• 气态变化与生态安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

深圳城市生态安全评价与预测

李佩武1, 李贵才2, 张金花1, 李子鹤3, 徐凤1   

  1. 1. 天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津300384;
    2. 北京大学深圳研究生院,深圳518055 ;
    3. 天津师范大学教育学院,天津300384
  • 收稿日期:2008-08-01 修回日期:2008-12-01 出版日期:2009-03-25 发布日期:2009-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 李贵才,E-mail:ligc@szpku.edu.cn E-mail:ligc@szpku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李佩武(1951-),男,教授,主要研究方向为GIS 与景观生态.E-mail:lipeiwu2008@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40571051).

Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction for Shenzhen

LI Peiwu11, LI Guicai22, ZHANG Jinhua11, LI Zihe33, XU Feng11   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300384, China;
    2. Institute of Graduate Studies, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
    3. Education College, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300384, China
  • Received:2008-08-01 Revised:2008-12-01 Online:2009-03-25 Published:2009-03-25

摘要:

为实现对深圳城市生态安全的评价、预测与科学管理调控,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)概念模型,构建了度 量深圳生态安全的评价指标体系,选取层次分析法与熵权法相结合的综合方法对各指标赋权,通过模糊综合法并 借助SPSS 软件,对深圳城市1997-2006 年生态安全水平动态变化进行计算、分析、评价,然后运用逐步回归分析构 建评价预测模型, 以实现对深圳生态安全的前景预测与完成2006 年的生态安全级别特征值的验证。结果表明: 1997-2006 年深圳城市理想安全和较安全隶属度逐渐变大,极不安全隶属度逐渐变小,显示深圳生态安全的限制因 子在不断减少,生态系统发展潜力较大;1997-2005 年生态安全水平呈现从临界安全向较安全逼近的态势,2006 年 达到较安全状态;经模型检验,评价预测模型具有显著的统计意义,2006 年预测与研究成果的生态安全级别特征值 高度吻合,2022 年深圳生态可达理想安全水平。

关键词: PSR 模型, 模糊评价法, 评价, 深圳, 生态安全, 预测

Abstract:

Based on the pressure-status-response (PSR) conceptual model, this paper constructs the ecological security evaluation index system of Shenzhen. It selects the AHP(analytic hierarchy process) and the entropy-right method to empowering all indicators. Through the fuzzy synthetic method and using the SPSS software, it obtains a result of ecological security dynamic changes of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2006 by calculating, analyzing and evaluating. Then it builds prediction model using stepwise regression analysis, and verifies the security grades of ecology data of Shenzhen in 2006. The results show that: it is an approaching situation of ecological security synthetic indices from less security to relative security of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2005, and reaches relative security status in 2006. The membership of ideal security and relative security will get larger gradually while the membership of terribly security gets smaller. It also shows that the limiting factors impacting ecological security of Shenzhen is diminishing gradually, and the development potential is great; the ecological security of Shenzhen will go up to ideal status in 2022 through the prediction model.

Key words: ecological security, evaluation, fuzzy evaluation pattern, prediction, PSR model, Shenzhen