地理科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 125-131.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.01.017

• 产业发展与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制

李裕瑞1,2, 刘彦随1, 龙花楼1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2008-10-01 修回日期:2008-12-01 出版日期:2009-01-24 发布日期:2009-01-24
  • 通讯作者: 刘彦随(1965-),男,陕西绥德人,研究员、博士生导师,主要从事土地利用和农业与农村发展研究. E-mail: liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李裕瑞(1983-),男,四川隆昌人,博士生,研究方向为土地利用、区域农业与农村发展.E-mail: lyr2008@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635029);中国科学院地理资源所创新三期领域前沿项目.

Influencing Mechanism of Spatio-Temporal Variation of Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

LI Yurui1,2, LIU Yansui1, LONG Hualou1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China
  • Received:2008-10-01 Revised:2008-12-01 Online:2009-01-24 Published:2009-01-24

摘要:

利用1999-2006 年县域统计数据,借助面板数据模型,对江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制进行了系统 分析。结果表明:粮食播种面积是影响粮食生产时空变化的相对活跃因素;城镇化、工业化因素通过比较经济效益 对全省粮食生产产生一定程度的负向影响;粮食生产支持政策对全省粮食生产恢复起到积极作用,并且这一支持 政策对三大地区、不同收入水平地区的粮食生产促进效应存在差异,体现在对苏北、低收入地区的促进作用较强, 而对苏南、相对高收入地区的促进作用较弱。鉴于江苏省粮食生产的时空变化和政策效应的区域差异,适应此特征 的粮食生产发展战略和补贴政策设计需及时响应。以统筹城乡和区域发展为契机,减少耕地非农占用,优化土地资 源城乡配置,加强农业基础设施建设,完善和强化粮食补贴机制,有助于促进江苏粮食生产持续发展与供需平衡。

关键词: 江苏省, 粮食生产, 面板数据模型, 时空变化, 影响机制

Abstract:

Food security is an extremely important factor which affects the regional and national socio-economic stability and development. By using county level statistic data from 1999 to 2006, this paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province based on panel data model. The results showed that: (1) grain planting area was a relatively active influencing factor on spatio-temporal variation of grain production in the study area; (2) urbanization and industrialization had a negative effect on grain production; and (3) agricultural policies which were devoted to promote grain production played an active role in the recovery phase. Moreover, the effects of these policies were different in southern, middle and northern Jiangsu and regions with different income levels of rural households. In detail, the effects on northern Jiangsu and regions with low income level were statistically significant but that on southern Jiangsu and regions with high income level were not the case. In view of the spatio-temporal variation of grain production and regional difference of policy effect, the development strategy of grain production and subsidy policy design should make a quick response. The macroscopic strategy of integrating urban-rural development and regional development provides an opportunity for improving the grain production and supply -demand balance of Jiangsu Province. Thus, for this purpose, the local government should protect the scarce farmland energetically, optimize the allocation of rural-urban land resources, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, and improve the subsidy policy of grain production.

Key words: grain production, influencing mechanism, Jiangsu Province, panel data model, spatio -temporal variation