地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 18-25.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.02.003

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

脆弱性的概念及其评价方法

李鹤1,2, 张平宇1, 程叶青1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100039
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-01 修回日期:2008-01-01 出版日期:2008-03-25 发布日期:2008-03-25
  • 作者简介:李鹤(1980-), 男, 内蒙古通辽人, 博士研究生, 主要从事资源环境与区域发展研究.E- mail: zhangpy@neigae.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635030)、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目专题(2004CB418507- 2)共同资助.

Concepts and Assessment Methods of Vulner ability

LI He1,2, ZHANG Pingyu1, CHENG Yeqing1   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;
    2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2007-12-01 Revised:2008-01-01 Online:2008-03-25 Published:2008-03-25

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545 | 143

摘要：

脆弱性研究是全球变化及可持续性科学领域关注的热点问题和重要的分析工具， 随着脆弱性研究受到越 来越多的关注， 对脆弱性的概念和评价方法的研究日益深入。对国内外相关研究中出现的脆弱性概念进行了归纳 总结， 并深入讨论了不同学者就脆弱性概念初步达成的共识及存在的分歧， 在此基础上明确了脆弱性概念的内涵。 依据脆弱性评价的思路， 将国内外脆弱性研究中出现脆弱性评价方法分为五大类， 分析了各种评价方法的优缺点， 指出了脆弱性评价中应遵循的基本原则。最后， 结合脆弱性研究的发展趋势， 指出面向多重扰动的脆弱性评价、耦 合系统的脆弱性评价、复杂系统的不确定问题、脆弱性评价的尺度问题等是目前脆弱性评价研究中亟待开展的研 究内容。

关键词: 脆弱性, 可持续发展, 评价方法, 人地系统

Abstract:

“Vulnerability”is a new research frontier in the domain of sustainability science and global environment change, and the term is now a central concept in a variety of research contexts such as natural hazards, climate change, land use change, and sustainable development; meanwhile, vulnerability research is perceived by many researchers as a new science which deals with the mechanism, the process of interactions between human and environment, and the regional sustainable development. Finding a generally applicable conceptual framework and robust assessment methods of vulnerability which are key factors to determine the development of vulnerability science, is a challenge facing vulnerability science. Recent years, researchers from different disciplines draw growing attention to the concept and assessment methods of vulnerability, leading to a rapid progress on the concept and assessment methods of vulnerability. The paper analyzed the different definitions of vulnerability from literatures both abroad and domestic, and illustrated the convergences and divergences among these definitions; based on this, we discussed the exact meaning of the term, maintaining that the sensitivity and coping capacity of system to perturbations impinging on it are the main characteristics of vulnerability of system. In addition, we reviewed the methods used in vulnerability assessment, and classified these methods into five categories according to their assessing process. we evaluated the weaknesses and strengths of each method respectively, then put forward some principles that should be followed in the process of vulnerability assessment, such as choosing simple assessment methods at first and then, with complicated ones later, paying attention to the trade- off between data transformation and results interpretation, focusing on key processes of the generation of vulnerability and making use of multiple methods in a complementary manner. Finally, according to the new trends in vulnerability research, the paper brought forward some issues which should receive more attention in the vulnerability assessment research, such as the vulnerability to multiple perturbations, the vulnerability of coupled systems, the uncertainties of complex system, and the scale issue in vulnerability assessment.

Key words: assessment methods, man- land system, sustainable development, vulnerability