城市生命周期理论自20世纪七八十年代提出后，引发了学界广泛的讨论。在得到认可和应用的同时，也遭到不少批判和修正。与所有理论一样，传统的城市生命周期理论也存在历史局限性，仅基于当时欧洲较大城市的人口数量变化所提出，需要结合新的城市现象和情况不断修正，也需要考虑不同国家、城市的差异性，甚至引入更多要素来拓展其理论内涵。本文回顾了城市生命周期理论的主要观点，系统地梳理了后期文献对于该理论的验证、应用、批判以及修正，在深入理解城市生命周期理论基础上，提出了进一步发展完善这一理论的方向。
1 城市生命周期理论
城市系统的其他参与者，家庭、邻里、产业等要素也都存在着周期性的发展，影响着城市的空间演化。家庭结构向多样化和老龄化的转变对城市空间提出了新要求，推动城市的转型演变[6]；邻里中低社会经济地位居民的涌入会导致房地产贬值，造成城市的衰退[7-8]；城市和地区还会随着产业周期的变化而变化[9]，当城市的主要生产要素(如劳动力、资本、技术进步)未能扩大，且无法通过增加其他投入要素的增长来弥补时，城市就会收缩[10]。但本质上，城市作为人口的集合，人口的空间分布和迁移方向才是城市的聚集和分散的动力来源。尽管除人口外的一些要素也对城市的发展历程产生影响，但其仍是首先作用在城市的人口再分配过程之上，且其数据无法像人口一样易于获得与统计，仅依据定性的描述很难明确的划定出不同的城市发展阶段。此外，并非每一个要素都具有同人口一样的稳定性，会对所有城市产生几乎相同的影响。因此，本文主要讨论了以人口变化为衡量标准的Hall的城市演变模型和Van den Berg等[3]的城市生命周期模型，为叙述方便，本文统称为城市生命周期理论。
1.1 城市演变模型(model of urban change)
Hall将熊彼特的“创造性破坏”过程整合到对空间问题的思考中，指出城市是创新的产生地，因此，技术的产生与消亡会带来城市空间的变化。根据对英格兰及威尔士大都市人口与就业趋势的研究，他认为城市的增长和衰退遵循四阶段的规律，且每个阶段都大致对应一个经济发展阶段[1-2]。在19世纪，人口开始向城市集中，也就是第一阶段。在1900—1950年，城市核心人口持续增加，但随着流动性的提升及自有住房者的增加，部分人口开始向郊区迁出，进入相对分散的第二阶段。在第三阶段中，出于对清理贫民窟等目的而进行的内城重建，促使人口进一步向郊区迁移，核心区人口出现绝对下降。而第四阶段在当时仅存在于伦敦，即整个城市开始失去人口，这一阶段也被视作大城市的独有特征。在这个模型中，就业的增长和分配也遵循着类似的模式，只是有一定程度的时间滞后[1,11]。
1.2 城市生命周期模型(the urban life cycle model)
Van den Berg等[3]首次运用Klaassen等阐述的模型，将“周期”定义为城市总人口出现一个上升及下降的时间段，对欧洲100多个城市核心区及外围区人口增长方向和速度正负的变化进行实证分析，提出了城市生命周期模型。根据这一模型，城市生命周期由4个阶段组成：首先是城市化阶段，在工业化的背景下，城市快速扩张，整个城市人口呈增长趋势，由于交通的限制，更多的移民居住在近工厂的核心区；当外围地区增长占据主导且城市人口仍在上升时，进入郊区化阶段，这主要源于家庭对更舒适环境的追求、交通设施的扩大，以及工厂的外迁；在交通拥堵加剧、生育率下降及负迁移率的影响下，整个城市尤其是核心地区开始出现人口负增长，即逆城市化阶段；当城市总人口仍在下降，但通过政策的吸引，核心的人口停止流失并重新增长时，便进入了再城市化阶段[3]。城市政策实际上始终促进从一个阶段到另一个阶段的过渡，是城市发展的内生动力。4个阶段可以根据绝对趋势和相对趋势进一步细分为8个小阶段(图1)。
图1
相比于Hall的模型，Van den Berg等[3]的模型在4个“发展阶段”的背景下，仅从人口角度提出了8个潜在“阶段”的完整周期，比Hall的阶段划分更具体(表1)。Van den Berg的模型将城市化定义为第一个阶段，这与Hall模型的第一阶段相对应，但他根据郊区人口的增加与否，将其进一步细分为绝对集中和相对集中两个阶段。而其第二阶段的郊区化则根据核心区人口是否增加分别对应Hall模型的第二和第三阶段。第三阶段的逆城市化则与Hall模型的第四阶段对应。与第一阶段相似，Van den Berg等[3]将第三阶段逆城市化也划分为相对和绝对两个阶段。Hall[1]在他的研究中指出，当整个城市的人口下降时，城市的核心区很可能出现相对或绝对的转变。Van den Berg等[3]在此基础上对模型进行了扩展，预测了一个新的阶段——再城市化阶段。
表1 Van den Berg模型与Hall模型的比较
Tab.1
| 发展阶段* | 阶段* | 人口数量变化 | Hall对应 阶段** | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 核心 | 外围 | 城市 | ||||
| 总体增长阶段 | 城市化 | 1. 绝对集中 | ++ | - | + | 1 |
| 2. 相对集中 | ++ | + | +++ | |||
| 郊区化 | 3. 相对分散 | + | ++ | +++ | 2 | |
| 4. 绝对分散 | - | ++ | + | 3 | ||
| 总体下降阶段 | 逆城市化 | 5. 绝对分散 | -- | + | - | 4 |
| 6. 相对分散 | -- | - | --- | |||
| 再城市化 | 7. 相对集中 | - | -- | --- | ||
| 8. 绝对集中 | + | -- | - | |||
注：*根据Van den Berg等[
1.3 研究方法
首先是城市核心区和外围区的划分标准。关于城市生命周期的研究多采用功能性城市(functional urban region，FUR)的概念，类似于通勤区[17]。核心区一般指城市经济及社会发展的焦点，通常小于“建成城市”范围，拥有较高的人口密度或数量[16]。外围区则是与城市核心相连的边缘地区，与核心之间存在较强的经济、通勤、人口迁移关系[1]。在美国，“大都市统计区”(metropolitan statistics area，MSA)大致相当于功能性质的城市，核心是中心(政治)城市，外围地区由中心城市所在县的其余部分组成，有时还包括一个或多个相邻的县；而在西欧，外围通常是自治市、公社或其他类型的地方政府区[16]。在经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,OECD)定义的功能性城市(functional urban area，FUA)中，核心区是指高人口密度的相邻地理单元(即市镇、选区、人口普查区等)的集合，并根据通勤路线，将就业人口中15%以上到核心区就业的地理单元定义为通勤区[18]，亦即外围区。
图2
2 对城市生命周期理论的应用、批判与发展
2.1 城市生命周期理论的验证和应用
2.2 对城市生命周期理论的批判
随着城市的不断发展，对于城市生命周期的研究不断增加，质疑和批判的观点也开始出现，主要包括以下几个方面。
第二，由于对异质性的考虑不足，理论存在一定局限性。首先，城市生命周期理论是基于北欧和西欧国家1990年以前的城市发展历程而提出的，并不能代表其他地区的特征[42]。其实，Hall等[2]的研究也显示，南欧的城市集中化与北欧和西欧呈现出完全不同的趋势，东西欧之间也存在较大差异[17]。对中国城市的研究也显示，在人口和就业不断向郊区迁移的同时，中国城市中心的发展并不是停滞或衰退的，反而更加繁荣，显示出与经典理论不同的特征[26,34]。其次，传统模型的研究对象仅为20万以上居民规模的大城市[10]，并未对通勤和劳动力市场的功能做出特别规定[19]，因而忽略了中小城市的发展[43]。再者，当经济周期的范围从局部范围转变为全球范围时，由于研究对象间的巨大差异，很难捕捉到普遍的周期现象[9]。已有研究表明，城市的进化路径是多样和复杂的，不能包含在单一的城市生命周期模型中[19,44]。
第三，阶段的划分存在争议。根据对美国的研究，Elliott[45]认为城市发展经历了城市化、郊区化和分散化3个过程，分散已成为都市发展进程中更加常见的子过程，但并没有在城市生命周期理论中完全体现。也有学者认为城市的发展轨迹并不需要分为8个阶段之多，大多数城市要么持续增长，要么持续萎缩[46]。Kabisch等[6]在对欧洲城市人口趋势的分析中发现了城市化与再城市化并存的现象，二者在定量描述和驱动力方面具有相似性，可以合并为一个阶段。还有学者认为某些过程并不足以构成一个单独的阶段，如20世纪美国人口空间分布变化最重要的特征是郊区人口的快速增长，郊区化的特征非常明显，比较而言，“逆城市化”和“再城市化”并不足以构成独立的城市发展阶段[47]。孙群郎[14]根据对战后美国郊区化的分析认为，所谓“逆城市化”并不真实存在，只是大都市区的空间扩散越过大都市区的统计边界所导致的；如果重新调整大都市区的界限，就会发现大都市区的时代并没有结束。他还认为再城市化并不是主流趋势，质疑将其作为单独发展阶段的合理性。Nyström[43]也认为再城市化这一阶段完全可以被省略掉。
2.3 对城市生命周期理论的发展
针对传统城市生命周期理论的局限性，不少研究对其进行了一定程度的扩展或深化，如对不同阶段特征及驱动力的补充。20世纪上半期，资金、人才和技术不断向城市中心集中，先进工业国家率先进入快速城市化阶段，这一过程首先出现在英国[43-44]，二战后在世界范围内扩展[51]。而城市化阶段是由多种因素共同引起的，如城市地区第二和第三级经济活动的兴起、城市核心新的生活方式的推广、金融和制度力量的增加以及基础设施的发展等[20]。20世纪50年代后，由于城市人口激增、市区地价上涨以及环境恶化，人们收入增加并对低密度的独立住宅产生需求，以及汽车的广泛使用和交通网络设施的改进，大量人口从城市核心迁移到周围的农村和中小型城镇[3,19]，郊区化进程加快[30]。西方发达国家的大都市主要经历了4次郊区化浪潮，分别是人口、制造业、零售业和办公就业的郊区化[34]。逆城市化，首先出现在20世纪60年代的英国，而后逐渐扩散至欧洲其他国家及美国[51]。20世纪90年代以来，再城市化已经成为城市发展中日益频繁的阶段，在政策(如市区重建政策、郊区化控制政策)，高科技和第三产业、金融和商业服务的发展，以及能源和交通成本上升的驱动下，市中心住房供应上升，经济活动也被带回城市中心，吸引人口返回城市[20,24-25]，尤其是小型家庭及年轻人的迁入，极大程度上推进了再城市化的进程[6,23]。
也有一些研究针对城市发展的特征归纳出更加细分的城市发展模式。Cheshire[52]指出在具有历史核心、古老的大学和受过高等教育人口的中型城市，其城市衰退的速度会放缓；但其他地区，尤其是老工业城市，城市仍在持续衰退甚至难以逆转。Wolff[10]将城市分为集中化和分散化发展两类，发现了分散化城市的共性，即它们的发展趋势很少遵循Van den Berg等[3]的城市生命周期模型的连续顺序，反而会显示出一些阶段间的短暂波动。Tikoudis 等[53]基于对1100多个城市的分析，发现人口稀少的城市地区总体上倾向于通过提高密度来增长，而相对密集的城市地区则倾向于通过郊区化来增长。中国学者在城市生命周期理论的基础上，结合不同类型城市的特征提出了煤炭城市、矿业城市生命周期模型，他们都认为资源型城市在经历了发展初期、扩展期和鼎盛期后，最终将以衰退告终[54-55]；但通过资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设，城市可以实现向精明增长的转型，进而延长生命周期，以避免城市过早衰退[56]。Humer等[48]针对多中心城市的生命周期作了更具体分析，发现核心和外围的人口分布差异逐渐缩小，呈现出均匀分布格局，并将其命名为“同步化”时期。
与批判相伴的还有一些新模型的提出。周春山[57]基于Hall模型对广州人口分布模式展开研究，提出包括向心期、绝对向心期、相对向心期、相对离心期和绝对离心期5个阶段在内的中国大城市人口变动模式。孙群郎[14]根据对以美国为代表的西方城市的研究，提出了新的城市空间发展理论——聚集扩散论，认为在城市发展的过程中，集聚与分散不是非此即彼的，而是始终存在着聚集与扩散两种“相反相成、对立统一”的运动，共同推动了城市空间的发展演进。Geyer等[58]则提出差异城市化的理论假说，指出人口迁移首先影响主要城市，并逐步扩散到中型城市和小型城市，以此将城市发展划分为6个阶段，认为第一个周期以主要城市城市化开始，以小型城市的逆城市化结束，而中型城市可能会转变为第二个周期中的主要城市。因此，当城市周期发展到某一阶段时，不同规模的城市可以处于不同但相互联系的阶段[44]。
3 城市生命周期理论的未来发展方向
城市生命周期理论自提出以来，遭到不少质疑和批判，也有很多改进和发展。从既有的质疑出发，重新审视城市生命周期理论，在以下4个方面仍有突破和发展的空间。
3.1 对新城市现象的总结
由于历史的局限，经典城市生命周期理论并没有考虑上述这些新现象。未来的研究需要将新城市现象纳入传统生命周期模型之中，并建立两者之间的关系，深化机制探讨，以进一步补充、丰富和发展传统的理论框架。
3.2 多样化类型的扩展
对传统城市生命周期理论的批判很大一部分是关于异质性的，对此需要辩证理解。这些研究大多在自身研究时点和研究对象的局限性和特殊性基础上对城市生命周期理论进行批判，是否客观和准确仍有待考证。不过，首先需要指出的是，不同的研究对象势必存在异质性，但并不能因此去否定城市发展所具有的一般性规律。客观来讲，高度凝练的理论本身就是强调共性特征，需要忽略一些具体差异。如Burgess[70]提出的同心圆城市结构，是建立在城市在一个均质土地的假设之上的，在扇形、多核模型提出时，才考虑到城市空间结构受交通、地形、资源等要素的影响。而城市生命周期理论是基于多个城市的分析研究，剔除了一部分的差异，如东西欧城市的不同特征以及不同的城市规模等，从而得出的一个关于城市发展阶段的共性结论。因此，在经典理论的框架依然合理的前提下，个别城市的异质性并不能成为否定经典模型的依据。
3.3 人口因素的扩展
城市作为人口的聚集居住地，根据人口因素来讨论城市的演变是必要的。不过，传统的模型简单地根据核心与外围地区的人口绝对数量变化来对城市的发展历程进行划分，从除数量以外的其他人口要素理解城市生命周期同样是未来值得深入探索的方向。20世纪80年代，第二次人口转型的迹象在全球不少国家逐渐显现，出现了初婚年龄推迟、结婚率下降、同居率上升、婚姻稳定性下降等新特征，引起了人口结构的多样变化，尤其是小型家庭数量的增加[6,75]和大范围的人口老龄化[76]。这些变化并不能完全从数量变化上体现出来，但同样对城市变迁产生了重大的影响，如人口结构变化引起的人口减少会导致区域的整体收缩，同时带来社会资本流失和公共活动的减少，使得城市失去活力[77]，但相关研究却十分匮乏。此外，绅士化等现象的出现还表明人口的经济社会特征也是一个值得考虑的因素[68]。由此可见，对城市的人口结构作进一步的挖掘，将其应用于表征城市生命周期的因素之一，将是一个有前途的方向。
3.4 超越城市生命周期理论：走向城市空间演化理论
表2 产品生命周期、邻里生命周期和城市生命周期比较
Tab.2
| 阶段 | 微观 | 中观 | 宏观 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 产品生命周期 | 邻里生命周期 | 城市生命周期 | |||
| 阶段1 | 创新：新的生产，本地产品 | 增长：新的单户同质住房 | 城市化：城市空间集聚 | ||
| 阶段2 | 增长或扩张：需求增加，本地产品扩张 | 稳定：更高的密度、公寓建设、少数族裔 涌入 | 郊区化：增长分散到城市核心区之外的地区 | ||
| 阶段3 | 成熟：竞争加剧，产品生产标准化 | 下降：空置率增加、出租房屋、高失业率 | 逆城市化：城市分散和衰退，郊区持续 增长 | ||
| 阶段4 | 停滞或衰退：产品被淘汰，需求下降，生产停滞 | 更新：严重破旧、高贫困和犯罪率、公共 干预 | 再城市化：城市中心再集中，郊区减少 |
城市中不同领域的生命周期理论可以归纳为微观(家庭生命周期、产品生命周期、建筑生命周期等)、中观(邻里生命周期、产业生命周期等)和宏观(城市生命周期等)3个维度。人作为具有周期性的生命体，将周期性带入了多个领域，个人、家庭和建筑的周期变迁影响着邻里的周期性发展，进而推动城市生命周期演变的进程。因此，微观的周期构成并促进中观乃至宏观层面的周期现象，甚至可以无缝衔接于解释其他领域的现象。工业产品和建筑的生命周期与阶段变更也会引起邻里住房结构或属性以及城市产业的变化，并进而影响到城市生命周期，例如生产要素的减少导致城市收缩[9-10]。由此可见，城市作为人口的聚集地和经济活动的主要发生地，城市的周期性变化的确是存在的。此外，拓展微观城市生命周期的微观机制研究也是未来值得研究的方向，尤其是借助个体居住地或企业选址在不同阶段的空间迁移变化，不仅可以为理解城市周期的长期变化填补微观视角的理论参考，还可以从个体动态性角度进一步挖掘城市演变的深层动力。
不同学科的不同周期理论所描述的对象不同，每个阶段所经历的时间不尽相同，阶段也并不完全是一一对应的。但抽离他们所表述的对象后，可以观察到很多相似之处，即某一事物从产生后，都会经历一个上升趋势，然后趋于平稳，进而走向衰落，但在某些因素的驱动下，最后可能会产生一个新的上升阶段，形成一个周期发展的态势。即城市地理中的每一个要素(人口、家庭、建筑、邻里、产业等)似乎都在经历一个自我创新、发展，不断震荡并调整的周期过程。由此可以在基于人口的城市周期理论的基础上，发展出更加系统、综合的城市生命周期理论。值得思考的是，尽管在空间形式上存在着集聚与分散的摆动，但不是简单的循环往复，在内容上存在螺旋上升的发展。因此，可以超越周期的概念，发展更加一般化的城市空间演化理论，探讨城市构成要素空间分布变化和城市空间结构演替规律。
4 结论
随着人类社会进入城市社会，城市问题不断凸显，洞悉城市空间演化规律显得越来越迫切。在此背景下，对经典的城市生命周期理论的审视和发展显得尤为重要。基于此，本文对该理论的起源、观点、应用、批判以及修正方面进行了系统的梳理，得到以下结论：① 城市生命周期理论仍是描述当代城市空间演化的主要模型及参考框架，其阶段的更迭得到了相关研究的证实，并被广泛应用于识别和研究城市发展阶段。② 与所有理论一样，传统的城市生命周期理论由于其历史局限性而受到批判，包括：仅仅通过人口数量这一城市要素区分发展阶段，对其他城市要素考虑不够；研究对象缺乏广泛性，对城市异质性和演化模式多样化考虑不足；面对新的发展现象和趋势特征，城市发展阶段的划分与演化方向也都遭到质疑。③ 在批判的同时，也对传统理论进行了修订和发展，包括：深化了演化阶段的特征和驱动力；提出了特定情境下的城市发展模式；对传统研究方法进行了完善和改进；提出了聚集扩散论、差异城市化等新的理论假说。
城市生命周期理论仍然存在着发展的潜力，未来可以取得突破的地方体现在：① 与时俱进，在原来理论框架内纳入边缘城市、收缩城市、绅士化以及后危机、后疫情时期出现的新城市现象，考虑人们生活方式与理念、社会经济背景等变化，扩展城市演化阶段。将具有普遍性的新现象用来深化城市生命周期阶段的特征，发展更加符合城市现实、更具普适性的城市生命周期理论。② 细分城市类型，将城市生命周期理论的研究对象扩展到不同的制度背景、社会经济环境、历史文化下的典型城市案例，归纳城市生命周期的多样化演变模式。尤其是展开对比研究，辨析中西发展异同，总结兼容中国情境的城市生命周期模型，更好地指导中国城市发展。③ 在人口数量要素基础上加入人口结构变化作为表征城市生命周期的共同因素，综合数量、年龄、家庭规模及经济社会特征等多方面的数据划分城市演化阶段，探究城市空间演化的深层次路径。④ 增加有关城市中居民或企业迁移分析，拓展城市生命周期理论的微观视角；整合城市系统要素，把人口迁移与家庭、建筑、邻里、产业的规律性变化相关联，超越以人口为主的城市生命周期理论，发展更加系统、更加综合的城市空间演化理论。
致谢
感谢北京大学周一星教授在历史文献原稿提供方面给予的无私帮助。
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回溯中国生态城市研究的缘起,利用历史分析、文献检索等方法,分析中国生态城市研究的主要领域、发展过程及其影响因素等问题,探讨城市生态理论研究、城市化率、国家宏观环境政策等对生态城市研究与建设实践的影响效果,在系统梳理1989年以来国家宏观环境政策的基础上总结中国生态城市建设实践的基本特征,并指出了中国生态城市建设中存在的主要问题。结果表明：① 北京、天津、上海、江苏等省份是中国生态城市研究力量分布的核心地区,研究者以高级职称者居多;② 从论文成果看,中国生态城市研究获得资助的类型以国家级科学基金项目和省部级项目为主,研究成果以工程技术（自科）、行业指导（社科）为主;实践中,包括地方政府在内的其他项目也对生态城市给予了很大关注;③ 生态城市建设、生态城市规划设计、生态城市与可持续发展、生态城市与生态环境等是研究热点领域中的重点;④ 对中国生态城市研究具有极大引导与促进作用的主要有城市化率、生态城市发展、国家生态环境管理水平、宏观管理政策导向等因素;⑤ 认识水平的深化、注重环境要素建设、住居与生产功能的综合、城市与区域协调、从定性到定量评估等是中国生态城市建设实践的五大基本特征;⑥ 中国生态城市建设中的问题主要存在于发展定位、区域环境影响、主体功能区划、规划与管理等四个方面。
Overview of theoretical research and practical considerations on eco-cities of China
DOI:10.11821/dlyj2015120002
[本文引用: 2]
This paper presents necessity for researching urban ecological problems and eco-city problems, analyses development process and influencing factors of the eco-city using historical analysis and document retrieval methods, and discusses the effect of urban ecological theory, urbanization rate, national macro environment policy and construction of eco-city. This paper introduces basic features of ecological city construction in China and raises the main problems of ecological city construction, through analyzing national macro environment policy since 1989. The results are listed as follows: (1) Beijing City, Tianjin City, Shanghai City and Jiangsu Province are the core areas of eco-city study, and most of researchers have senior professional titles. (2) Most programs on eco-city study are the projects from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, or provincial and ministerial projects. The achievements are mostly focusing on engineering technology, industry guidance and many other projects. (3) The most focused fields are related with eco-city construction, ecological urban planning and design, ecology and sustainable urban development, urban ecology and ecological environment. (4) To strengthen the eco-city study in China, we should place emphasis on some aspects such as urbanization, eco-city development, national environmental management ecology, macro-management policy orientation. (5) There are five basic features of eco-city construction in China, including raising awareness, emphasizing environmental factor construction, integrating residence and production function, coordinating urban and local areas, and assessing qualitatively and quantitatively. (6) This paper summarizes four aspects concentrating on development orientation, regional environmental impact, main function regionalization, planning and management in the construction of eco- city in China.
Beyond polycentricity: The dispersed metropolis, Los Angeles, 1970-1990
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DOI:10.1191/0309132505ph558oa
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During the last three decades, the household has become the focus of a wide range of sociodemographic processes, including the destabilization of traditional patterns of marriage, cohabitation and divorce; the growing fluidity of ties of kin and friendship; and increasingly complex transitions through the life course. However, these dynamics - which are often summarized under the common heading of the `second demographic transition' - have been marginalized in the mainstream geographical literature. In this paper, we draw attention to the extensive, albeit fragmented, body of sociological, economic, feminist and geographical insights into the changing social geometry of the household. Recent developments in these domains have affirmed the pivotal role of the household in shaping the geographies of gender, home and everyday life. We underline the importance of households as agents of urban transformation, arguing in favour of the further incorporation of household demography into the interpretation of contemporary urban problems and trends.
中国的第二次人口转变
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The second demographic transition in China
In the past two decades, the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) has become a major theoretical framework in explaining changes in family behaviors in many countries in the world. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we present an overall evaluation of the indicators of the SDT in mainland China, including marriage timing, cohabitation rate, divorce rate, and fertility behavior. Our results suggest that different aspects of the SDT have had varying trajectories in China, in comparison to the West. A rapid change has been observed among more individualized family behavior like marriage and cohabitation: both men and women postpone the timing of transition to first marriage; cohabitation increases rapidly. In terms of childbearing, the extramarital childbirth rate and childless rate among married women are still rare. Divorce rate experienced a slow increase across cohorts, yet our prediction implies that it will remain relatively low in the near future. This study suggests that we should integrate local social, historical and cultural backgrounds in understanding family changes in China.
国土空间规划下城市收缩与复兴中的空间形态调整
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Spatial adjustment of shrinking cities in the territorial spatial planning
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Study on life cycle methodology
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DOI:10.1080/00420989320080851
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During the past decades, large cities in advanced industrialised countries have experienced different demographic and economic trajectories. Some are continuing to grow in population and jobs; many have experienced decline. To account for the process of decline and its consequences, a general model of urban decline is proposed. It specifies the relationship between employment, population, political élites and urban fiscal revenues. Constructs and propositions are drawn from economic and ecological theorems. Empirical evidence is based on literature predominantly from Germany and the US.
