Polypharmacy is the administration of an excessive number of medicines and a significant irrational medicine use practice. Little is known about this practice in South Africa. This study aimed to determine the level of polypharmacy and potential drug–drug interactions amongst the geriatric patient population in a facility in South Africa.

Medicine counterfeiting is a serious worldwide issue, involving networks of manufacture and distribution that are an integral part of industrialized organized crime. Despite the potentially devastating health repercussions involved, legal sanctions are often inappropriate or simply not applied. The difficulty in agreeing on a definition of counterfeiting, the huge profits made by the counterfeiters and the complexity of the market are the other main reasons for the extent of the phenomenon. Above all, international cooperation is needed to thwart the spread of counterfeiting. Moreover effort is urgently required on the legal, enforcement and scientific levels. Pharmaceutical companies and agencies have developed measures to protect the medicines and allow fast and reliable analysis of the suspect products. Several means, essentially based on chromatography and spectroscopy, are now at the disposal of the analysts to enable the distinction between genuine and counterfeit products. However the determination of the components and the use of analytical data for forensic purposes still constitute a challenge. The aim of this review article is therefore to point out the intricacy of medicine counterfeiting so that a better understanding can provide solutions to fight more efficiently against it. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The World Health Organization has reported that counterfeit medicines potentially make up more than 50% of the global drug market, with a significant proportion of these fake products being encountered in developing countries. This occurrence is attributed to a lack of effective regulation and a weak enforcement capacity existing in these countries, with an increase in this trade resulting from the growing size and sophistication of drug counterfeiters. In addition, due to both cost and lack of availability of medicines, consumers in developing countries are more likely to seek out these inexpensive options. The World Health Organization is mindful of the impact of counterfeit drugs on consumer confidence in health care systems, health professionals, the supply chain, and genuine suppliers of medicines and medical devices. Antibiotics, antituberculosis drugs, and antimalarial and antiretroviral drugs are frequently targeted, with reports of 60% of the anti-infective drugs in Asia and Africa containing active pharmaceutical ingredients outside their pharmacopoeial limits. This has obvious public health implications of increasing drug resistance and negating all the efforts that have already gone into the provision of medicines to treat these life threatening conditions in the developing world. This review, while focusing on counterfeit medicines and medical devices in developing countries, will present information on their impact and how these issues can be addressed by regulation and control of the supply chain using technology appropriate to the developing world. The complexity of the problem will also be highlighted in terms of the definition of counterfeit and substandard medicines, including gray pharmaceuticals. Although this issue presents as a global public health problem, outcomes in developing countries where counterfeit drugs to treat malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome not only result in drug resistance, but a number of deaths from the untreated disease, is in stark contrast with the developed world, where lifestyle drugs such as sildenafil (Viagra) are most commonly counterfeited.© 2014 Glass.

Counterfeit drugs are a menacing and deadly problem worldwide. The proliferation of fake drugs is astounding, with over 100 countries reporting incidents of fake drugs, according to a 2008 report from the Pharmaceutical Security Institute. And incidents of drug counterfeiting show no evidence of declining: some industry insiders suggest that the number of counterfeit medicines on the market has increased as much as 25% each year over the past several years.

犯罪地理学以社会问题为导向,关注犯罪现象的格局、过程与机理,沿着“揭示问题、服务安全、解决问题”的思路,去破解复杂的社会难题,并在公共安全和犯罪防控领域贡献力量。本文基于地理学视角,从犯罪出行、犯罪空间决策、重复犯罪三大研究主题出发,综述了国内外犯罪者行为的研究进展。结果表明,国外研究取得了较多成果,如：①犯罪出行方面发现了就近掠夺和外出犯罪的空间模式;不同犯罪类型的出行距离存在显著差异;以及犯罪出行距离受犯罪者个体特征、地理特征、犯罪收益和情感因素的影响。②犯罪空间决策受经济因素、社会因素以及犯罪者空间意识的影响。③重复犯罪存在时空聚集性和时空临近性。国内研究主要集中在国外理论与经验引介,犯罪时空分布、形成机理与空间防控,以及犯罪模拟与预测方面,而地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究尚处于初始阶段,有许多空白亟需填补。总体而言,在犯罪者研究领域,仍存在以下3点不足：①在犯罪出行方面,综合的视角不多;②在犯罪空间决策方面,尚未涉及犯罪空间决策的时间差异及形成机制;③在重复犯罪方面,尚未考虑过去的犯罪活动和经验。最后,论文从视角、内容、方法及应用上提出未来的研究重点：注重综合性视角的实证分析;开展针对犯罪团伙的研究;合理利用大数据分析犯罪者行为的规律、过程和机理,避免导致推理错误;注重理论研究成果的转化,满足国家社会治安的重大需求,并提升犯罪地理学的学科价值。

With widening income gaps and excessive concentration of wealth, China faces serious challenges in developing comprehensive measures to maintain law and order and create a social environment with a desirable level of public safety and social stability. Geography of crime is oriented to social problems—it pays attention to the patterns, processes, and mechanisms of crime phenomenon and aims to contribute to the improvement of public safety and crime prevention. Based on the geographical perspective, this article reviews the progress of research in China and internationally on criminal behavior with regard to crime travel, offender spatial decision, and repeated crime, and makes some recommendations for future research. The review shows that the study of criminal behavior has been developed for many years and has obtained a large amount of results, but there are still some research gaps. (1) With regard to journeys to crime, previous studies have mainly considered individual characteristics of offenders, geographical features, and influencing factors such as the proceeds of crime, without considering the dynamic effects of the environmental factors. Therefore, future studies need to adopt a comprehensive perspective by taking into account the social environment, the built environment, and the ambient population (such as regional flow, commuter population, daily activities, and so on) comprehensively to examine whether a crime is affected by these factors under different spatial and temporal scenarios. (2) With regard to criminal spatial decision, international research examines separately the spatial and temporal aspects of decision making of various types of criminals. Therefore, future research in China on geography of crime should not only consider spatial factors, but also integrate the temporal aspect of crime to improve our understanding of the mechanism of the crime phenomenon. (3) The impact of past activities and experiences on sequential crimes by repeat offenders is largely overlooked. Hence, systematic analysis of repeat offenders should be strengthened. Future research should focus on, but not limited to (1) comprehensive empirical analysis of crimes; (2) research on co-offending groups; (3) the use of big data to analyze the patterns of offenders’ behavior and processes and mechanisms of crimes to provide a solid foundation for crime prediction. Meanwhile, deficiencies of big data should not be underestimated; (4) theoretical research and technological development to meet the need of social security in China, and to provide recommendations for the modernization of the governance system and governance capacity, while enhance the value of research of geography of crime.

The neighbourhood contexts in which former offenders live following their release from prison has been relatively neglected in recidivism studies. Moreover, the relationship between neighbourhood-level crime and parolee recidivism has received little scholarly attention. This oversight is of concern since high-crime neighbourhoods may influence newly-released prisoners' ability to assimilate and reintegrate effectively within society. In this study, we examine whether neighbourhood-level crime across four different categories (dishonesty, violence, property damage, and drugs and anti-social) predicts individual-level short-term recidivism. Using data from 280 high-risk male parolees returning to neighbourhoods throughout New Zealand between 2010 and 2013 we examine whether neighbourhood-level crime is associated with their reconviction. Results showed no significant associations between crime and short-term recidivism after controlling for various potential individual and neighbourhood-level confounds. We contrast the surprising results of the research with the predominantly US-centric recidivism literature, and identify and discuss possible explanations for our non-significant findings.

以往关于作案地选择的研究,缺乏考虑不同属性群体间的空间差异。以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,基于不同年龄属性的视角,进行街头抢劫者作案地选择及影响因素的对比分析,并据此提出犯罪防控建议。研究发现：① 不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择存在显著的空间差异。即少年抢劫者趋向在劳动密集型产业集聚区和中小学密集区作案,而年轻的成年抢劫者仅趋向于劳动密集型产业集聚区,但成年抢劫者的作案地却偏向于客运站所在社区及其周边地区。② 年龄相关的活动节点、周围人口的监护作用和青少年人口比例是形成这种空间差异的主要因素。研究结果对犯罪防控与社会治理具有重要的参考意义,如：① 在青少年抢劫者频繁作案的劳动密集型产业集聚区,调控网吧、酒吧等年龄相关活动节点的数量。② 在成年抢劫者作案密集的客运站及其周边社区,规划一定数量周围人口的持续存在,以发挥出更好的监护作用。③ 在青少年人口比例较高的社区,通过问题青少年的摸底调查,加强精准引导与帮扶。论文首次验证了不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择差异及成因,并在理论上弥补了犯罪者作案地选择缺乏细分人群的不足。

Crime location choice has been a central theme of crime geography research. However, the current research reveals little about the spatial differences among different age groups of criminals when they choose crime locations. Using kernel density estimation and discrete spatial choice models in ZG City, China, this study aims to explore the spatial variation in crime location choices of street robbers at different ages. We also examine the different influences of activity nodes, supervision role, and social disorganization on crime location choice. The results demonstrate that there are significant spatial differences in crime location choices by street robbers at different ages. Juvenile robbers tend to commit crimes in labor-intensive industrial clusters and primary and secondary school areas, young adult robbers tend to commit crimes only in labor-intensive industrial clusters, and adult robbers prefer urban areas with transportation hubs. Additionally, this study demonstrates that age-related activity nodes, the supervision role of the ambient population, and the proportion of youngsters are the main factors for such spatial differences. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Cybercafés have impact on crime location choices of juvenile and young adult robbers, while transportation hubs affect those of young adult and adult robbers, and bars and schools influence all the three age groups, but with a marginal age decay effect. (2) The supervision role exerted by the ambient population is greater for young adult and adult robbers compared with juvenile robbers. (3) Young adult robbers are more likely to target communities with more youngsters but juvenile and adult robbers are not. (4) Journey to crime has a significant negative effect on target choices, especially on juvenile robbers. In addition, these findings have great informative value for crime prevention and social governance. For example, (i) in labor-intensive industrial clusters where juvenile robbers frequently commit crimes, we can regulate the number of age-related activity nodes such as cybercafés and bars; (ii) in transportation hubs and their surrounding communities where adult robbers commit crimes intensively, we can encourage the persistence of the ambient population to persist and play a better supervision role; (iii) in communities predominated by youth population, we can survey delinquent juveniles to enhance the precise guidance and support.

对比分析了2008年和2018年长春市犯罪空间格局的变化特征，进而构建了贝叶斯时空分析模型，整合了犯罪时空格局演化中的固定效应、空间随机效应和时间随机效应，基于R环境中的INLA程序包对模型的各个参数进行了拟合，结合GIS制图，识别出异于总体趋势的犯罪相对风险高值区，并进一步解析了犯罪格局形成和演化的过程和规律。研究发现，犯罪总量在10 a间显著下降，犯罪数量较高的警区数量明显减少。长春市周边地区犯罪率有所提高，而城市中心区域的多数警区则明显下降。贝叶斯时空模型表明，虽然城市犯罪相对风险的平均水平较低，但其总体上却呈现出显著的增加趋势。空间效应的高值区主要集中在城市中心核心区域，特别是传统的商业网点或经济活动较为集中的警区。时间效应的高值区主要集中在城市外围地区，尤其是国家级开发区所在的警区。综合空间效应和时间效应，城市中心区域存在既是空间效应的高值区也是时间效应高值区的时空共同高风险区。贝叶斯方法在数据整合、区域异质性识别以及灵活性方面具有明显的优势，对于犯罪时空格局形成和演化规律的理解和把握上均有所助益。

This study firstly compares and analyzes the changes in terms of the spatial and temporal patterns of crimes in Changchun between 2008 and 2018. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model integrating the fixed effects, the spatial random effects and the temporal random effects is built and fitted using the R-INLA package in R program. Combining with the maps of different effects of the model which are made used the software of ArcGIS 10.5, we identify the areas with higher relative risks of crime different from the general level or trend and further analyze the process and spatio-temporal patterns of crimes in Changchun. The study shows that the total amount of crimes displayed an obvious decreasing trend and the numbers of police precincts with higher crimes declined apparently. The crime rates showed an obvious increasing trend in the peripheral areas of the city while it went down dramatically in the inner city during the two years. The results of the Bayesian spatio-temporal model shows that the average trend of relative risk of crimes shows a significant increase in spite of the lower basic average relative risk of crimes. The police precincts with higher spatial effects were predominantly concentrated in the core area of the inner city. Especially, the highest spatial effects were mostly located in the precincts with those major traditional commercial area or the intensive economic activities. The higher differential time effects were mainly located in the peripheral areas. Particularly, those precincts where the three major national development zones located possess the higher relative risks represented by the differential time effects. After integrating the spatial and differential time effects, several higher relative risks regions are identified through both spatial and temporal effects within the inner city, deserving more attentions in the work of crime control and countermeasures in the future. Bayesian method show obvious advantages on data integration, area-specific heterogeneity identification and degree of flexibility and can provide more insights into the formation and evolution of the crime pattern.

选取N市作为研究区域,以该市2013年全年的入室盗窃案件作为研究对象。将研究区域内入室盗窃与地理因子在不同空间尺度上进行关联性对比分析。首先,从环境犯罪学理论和现有犯罪地理特征研究两方面出发,分析现有研究中的尺度依赖性。每一套环境犯罪学理论均有其适用的空间尺度,在犯罪地理特征研究中会有相应的地理因子与之关联;其次,引入似不相关回归模型获取入室盗窃与地理因子在小区、街区、社区、街道以及区等多个空间尺度上的关联性。并用瓦尔德检验来测试各个关联系数之间差异的显著性。实验结果表明,随着尺度的变化,有些地理因子与入室盗窃的关联性并未变化,有些则发生了显著变化。这些变化可用不同尺度的犯罪地理学理论进行解释;最后,将多个尺度地理因子反演入室盗窃空间分布的结果进行综合,并将之与单一尺度的反演结果进行比较。结果证明,与单一尺度的地理因子反演犯罪空间分布的精度相比,利用多个尺度地理因子解释犯罪空间分布的精度更高。研究表明：在犯罪地理学研究中,环境犯罪学理论、地理因子分析以及犯罪空间分布反演均存在尺度依赖性。综合多个尺度的结果进行分析,不仅有利于准确认识犯罪的地理因子及其对应理论,对于犯罪反演精度也有所提高。

Current theoretical and empirical literature provides abundant knowledge about why and where crime takes place. However, few empirical studies analyze the scale applicability of the existing research. In order to get a better understanding of the relationship between burglary and sociodemographic and economic characteristics, this paper applies multiscale analysis to assess the stability of model parameters on different spatial scales. First, this paper summarizes the existing theories of environmental criminology, and concludes that each kind of theory can only be employed in a certain spatial scale. Thus, a more comprehensive explanation of crime needs more than one crime theory. Geographical factors associated with burglary also distinct between the results from different spatial scales. Therefore, multiscale analysis method may offer a more comprehensive and accurate analysis than single scale analysis in crime modelling. Second, using a recent burglary dataset from N city in southeast China, the current research applies a seemingly unrelated regression model to assess the stability of correlation coefficients between burglary and geographical factors among five spatial scales (residential area, neighborhood, community, street and district). After Wald's test for a significant test of correlation coefficients, the experimental result shows that, some correlation coefficients do not vary, while others vary significantly. Environmental criminology theories at different spatial scales explain the changes of these correlation coefficients. Finally, compared with the inversion results from single spatial scales, those integrating five spatial scales show a higher accuracy. The result demonstrates that, in the research of environmental criminology, the theories, geographical factors and spatial distribution inversion all depend on scale change. Multiscale analysis method performs better in geographical analysis, theory research and crime inversion than single scale analysis.

以中国H市DP半岛为例,分析城市入室盗窃犯罪的多尺度时空格局特征与成因,以探索推进区域内犯罪者画像研究。基于标准化犯罪强度指数和核密度估计的分析表明,DP半岛在中部和西部具有两个相对稳定的犯罪热点;但在年内月尺度上,年末犯罪高发并向交通可达性较好的商品房社区集聚;月内日尺度上,犯罪热点呈现出“振荡式”空间转移;日内时尺度上,犯罪热点沿道路进行空间转移,夜间覆盖范围最广。基于时空格局成因理论和实地调研资料的分析表明,DP半岛内以“理智型”入室盗窃者为主,主体与环境因素在不同时空区位上的耦合差异导致了犯罪空间格局的演变。总体来看,基于案件数据的多尺度犯罪时空格局研究,能够揭示特定区域内犯罪者的行为特征。

With an aim of exploring main behavioral patterns of criminals in a specific region, this research analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution and shift patterns of urban burglary hotspot in the DP peninsula of H city, China. Calls for service data on burglary crime during 2006-2010 were obtained from the Public Security Bureau of H city, and several field investigations on residents' behavior and geographic environment were carried out. Based on the 1068 burglary incidents geocoded in space, the temporal, spatial, and spatial-temporal patterns of burglary were depicted with standardized crime intensity index and kernel density estimation. Thereafter, a theoretical framework for analyzing the causes of these spatial-temporal patterns of burglary was constructed, which was then examined based on the materials collected from field investigations. Apart from qualitative analysis, the box-plot was used to discern the impact of "attractiveness" and "accessibility" on burglary occurrence. The empirical results showed that burglary incidents were not evenly distributed in time and space in the DP peninsula, and obvious spatial-temporal patterns of crime shift at multiple scales can be consistently observed. At the "month of year" scale, burglaries were most concentrated in commercial communities along the main roads at the end of the year, while at the "time of day" scale, the burglary hotspots shifted along the roads as time goes on. At the "day of month" scale, two crime shift patterns can be clearly observed around the main hotpots in the western and central parts of the DP peninsula. In particular, the centripetal distribution of shifting crime hotspots in space highly resembles the shift patterns of individual burglars' movement patterns. These spatial-temporal crime patterns indicated that most burglars in DP peninsula were rational, as these patterns were generated from the heterogeneous couplings of agents and environment in different spatial-temporal locations. Most burglaries happened in the communities with relatively high expected value and relatively low guardianship level. The conjunctive analysis of the impacts of "attraction" and "accessibility" showed that the accessibility factor played a much more important role in the occurrence of burglary, which further demonstrated the critical role of "opportunity" for potential burglars. Overall, this study showed the promise of criminal profiling based on aggregate crime incidents data in a specific region.

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题,但以往研究侧重考虑建成环境和社会环境的影响,缺乏研究周围人口与视频监控的作用。为弥补这一不足,论文以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,检验周围人口和视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择的影响,并尝试验证其时间效应。结果表明：① 周围人口与视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择均存在显著负影响,但两者的作用强度有所差异,即它们均能抑制街头抢劫的发生,但周围人口的监护作用大于视频监控的威慑作用;② 在周内日变化上,周围人口和视频监控的监护作用具有时间平稳性;但在日内时变化上,周围人口的影响呈现出时间波动性,而视频监控的影响却保持时间稳定特性。研究结果对警务防控和犯罪研究具有重要的参考意义,如：① 开展社会治安视频监控系统防控效果的实验评估,并对其布设位置进行动态优化与调整;② 在城市规划或城市更新时安排适量的混合功能用地,以在规划或管理上加强对周围人口的适度调节;③ 未来时间效应研究应重点关注日变化规律。

Explaining how offenders choose a crime location is one of the central themes of crime geography. However, previous research on offenders' crime location choice mostly considers the impact of the built environment and social environment, without considering the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbery and its temporal difference. To fill this gap, this study integrated ambient population and surveillance cameras in assessing street robbers' decision making and its time effects in ZG City of China, by using the discrete spatial choice modeling. The results demonstrate that ambient population and surveillance cameras have a significant negative impact on street robbers' crime location choice, and they play a protective role in preventing street robbers' criminal activities. Interestingly, we found that the protective effect of ambient population is greater than that of surveillance cameras. The protective role of ambient population and surveillance cameras is stable daily through the week, but diurnally, the influence of ambient population shows temporal fluctuation, while the impact of surveillance cameras is temporally stable. These findings can be of some reference for police control and crime geography research by: 1) Carrying out the experimental evaluation of surveillance camera system's prevention and control effect, and dynamic optimization and adjustment of surveillance cameralocations. 2) Arranging a suitable amount of mixed functional land in urban planning or urban renewal to strengthen the moderation of ambient population through planning or management. 3) Focusing on diurnal variability in future studies of the time effects.

犯罪地理研究与时空行为领域的研究有着共同的理论基础,二者都强调时空间环境与人类行为的相互作用。犯罪行为是人类特殊行为的一种,相关实证前沿已开始重视不同犯罪相关主体（犯罪者、潜在受害者、警察等）时空行为规律的挖掘、日常活动的动态衡量及不同主体行为的交互等方面对犯罪发生的影响;时空行为研究中的活动空间、环境暴露、群体分异、活动交互等维度的成果可拓展至犯罪地理研究。近年来,两大领域的前沿成果不断涌现,但目前仍缺乏从时空行为视角对犯罪地理学研究进行系统梳理,并对两者的融合创新进行深入探讨。为此,本研究在梳理犯罪地理中时空行为的理论基础和评述犯罪者、潜在受害者、警察时空活动对犯罪时空格局的影响研究基础上,基于犯罪地理和时空行为领域的交叉维度构建犯罪时空行为创新研究的框架,尝试推进该交叉领域在理论、方法与应用等方面的发展。

The study of crime geography has a common theoretical foundation in the study of space-time behavior, both emphasizing the interaction between spatio-temporal environment and human behavior. Crime is one kind of human behavior, relevant empirical frontiers have paid attention to revealing the space-time behavior rules and measuring the daily activities of different criminal subjects (offenders, potential victims, police, etc.) as well as the interactions between different subjects' behaviors on crime occurrence. The achievements of research on activity space, environmental exposure, group differentiation and activity interaction in spatio-temporal behavior can be extended to crime geography research. In recent years, there are increasing interdisciplinary innovations in crime geography and time geography. However, there is still a need to systematically review crime geography from the perspective of space-time behavior and discuss how to integrate and innovate both of them. Therefore, based on reviewing the theoretical basis of spatio-temporal behavior in crime geography and commenting on the influence of space-time activities of offenders, potential victims and police on the spatio-temporal pattern, this article proposes an innovative research framework of space-time behavior and crime geography based on the cross dimension. The framework would help promote the progress of the theories, research methods and application of this interdisciplinary field.

犯罪出行是犯罪地理学的重要研究议题,在犯罪防控、侦破等警务实践中具有突出的技术贡献。受制于研究数据的限制,中国犯罪出行实证研究较为缺乏。论文研究了2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行的空间模式与影响因素,并指出：① 2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行平均距离为5.74 km,存在明显的空间衰减效应,空间模式为就近掠夺,在距离犯罪者居住地2 km处出现犯罪缓冲区。② 南关区扒窃犯罪高发区与犯罪群体主要聚居地在空间上呈现重叠,该区域犯罪以就近掠夺的空间模式为主。③ 回归模型验证了犯罪者人口属性中性别、户籍地、是否就业和具有前科劣迹、涉案金额、犯罪地点所属类型对于出行距离的显著影响,其中户籍地变量为理解转型期中国大城市犯罪行为具有一定意义。

Journey-to-crime is a behavioral process of criminals searching for the targets and places that meet the needs of crime. It measures the spatial distance of the criminal from the initial location to the predetermined location. This is an important technical contribution of criminal geography in crime prevention, case detection and other police practices. Restricted by the limited research data, empirical research on journey-to-crime in China is relatively lacking. This paper studies the spatial pattern and influencing factors of journey-to-crime in pickpocketing in Nanguan District of Changchun from 2010 to 2016. The paper points out that: 1) The average distance of journey-to-crime in the study area from 2010 to 2016 is 5.74 kilometers, which shows an obvious spatial attenuation effect. The spatial pattern is plunder nearby, and there is a crime buffer zone, 2 kilometers away from the criminal′s residence; 2) There is an overlap in space of the areas with high incidence of pickpocketing crime and the residence of crime groups. And the spatial pattern of crime in this area is mainly plunder nearby; 3) By constructing a sequencing logit model, the influence of the uncertainty of measuring journey-to-crime distance on analysis results can be weakened. The regression model verifies the significant impact of gender, domicile, employment and criminal record, amount of money involved and type of crime location on journey-to-crime distance. Among them, the positive correlation between the amount of money involved and the travel distance verifies the prediction of the rational choice theory on criminal motivation. Based on the case study of pickpocketing crime in China′s big cities, this paper indicates that the average journey-to-crime distance, spatial pattern and influencing factors of pickpocketing crime in China and western cities are similar or consistent, which further promotes the combination of criminal geography on criminal behavior research between China and Western countries. Through analyzing the influence of the residence of crime groups on their journey pattern, the urban crime phenomenon and the social management problems of floating population in China under the background of high-speed urbanization can be hopefully reflected upon, thereby expanding the current literature on journey-to-crime. This paper is of a practical significance to criminal profiling, crime risk assessing in residential space, guiding crime prevention and assisting case detection.

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者“前案件”作案地选择对他们“后案件”作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在“前案件”中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现：街头抢劫者在“前案件”中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其“后案件”作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即“前后案件”的犯罪间隔越临近、“前案件”犯罪出行距离越短,以及“前案件”未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现“前案件”未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的“事前防控”与“主动处置”提供一定的参考。

Explaining the choice of crime location is one of the central themes of crime geography. The existing research on the choice of the location where street robbers commit crimes mainly focuses on the following two aspects: analyzing the spatial pattern and influencing factors from a comprehensive perspective, and analyzing the time difference from a comparative perspective. In general, these studies not only enrich the research perspectives, but also clarify the spatiotemporal patterns and their formation mechanisms. Therefore, they have important theoretical and practical significance. The literature also shows that offenders' subsequent crime location choices are affected by their prior crime location choices. However, the published studies have focused on the influences of time and place of a previous crime, and have not yet verified the role of crime experiences of the former offense. Therefore, this study further examined the influence of the prior individual robbery experiences on the subsequent street robbery location choices by using a mixed logit model and data on arrested robbers in ZG City, China. The results suggest that the individual criminal experiences of street robbers such as the interval of crimes, criminal travel, and arrest on the spot have a strong effect on subsequent street robbery location choices, that is, a shorter time interval, a shorter distance of journey to prior crime location, and less possibility of being arrested in the act of a prior street robbery significantly increase the likelihood of a robber returning to the previous location. Finally, through police interviews and theoretical analysis, it is found that the last situation is formed by the offenders' fear of being arrested on the spot, the special ways of police intervention, as well as the social cohesion and crime prevention of communities. Therefore, the extension of the results may well provide references for the police departments' work on prevention and pre-event control and active intervention.

Immigrants and natives are generally comparable in committing violent crimes in many Western cities. However, little is known about spatial differences between internal migrant offenders and native offenders in committing violence in contemporary urban China. To address this gap, this research aims to explore spatial variation in violent crimes committed by migrant and native offenders, and examine different effects of ambient population, crime attractors, crime generators, and offender anchor points on these crimes. Offender data, mobile phone data, and points-of-interest (POI) data are combined to explain the crime patterns of these offenders who committed offenses and were arrested from 2012 to 2016 in a large Chinese city by using box maps and negative binomial regression models. It is demonstrated that migrant and native violent crimes vary enormously across space. Ambient population is only positively related to migrant violent crimes. Crime attractors and generators have more significant and stronger correlations with migrant violent crimes, while offender anchor points have a stronger association with native violent crimes. The results reveal that migrant offenders tend to be attracted by larger amounts of people and more affected by crime attractors and generators than native offenders.

基于面域汇总数据的犯罪地理分析不仅存在MAUP局限,还会制约理论发展。本文将基于距离测度方法的DO指数用于犯罪地理研究,在连续空间上揭示2013—2018年北京盗窃、抢夺抢劫、暴力犯罪与32类城市功能的分布关系。研究表明：① 98%的“犯罪-功能”组合呈共聚分布,单一尺度分析极易低估犯罪发生地的种类数;② 由于罪犯在中等尺度上选择收益、风险、成本适中的概率最高,“犯罪-功能”组合的共聚尺度与程度多为倒U型关系,该规律有助补足日常活动理论和理性选择理论的空间视角;③ 随着监管加强,三种犯罪与所有功能的总体共聚程度渐趋下降,暴力犯罪的共聚尺度大于“两抢一盗”;④ 较之犯罪模式理论中的单一共聚类型,共聚组合可细分成大、中、小尺度强共聚型以及弱共聚型等小类。本研究将犯罪空间形成机制简化为犯罪点与功能点的几何关系,未来需克服混淆因素干扰、功能点均质化假设等。

Existing criminal geographical research mainly relies on cluster-based methods and aggregated data according to pre-defined geographic limits, which not only causes modifiable areal unit problem, but also restricts the development of classical criminal geography theory. Consequently, this paper pioneered the use of DO index, a new distance-based method, to Chinese criminal geographical research, in order to reveal the spatial distribution relationship between theft, robbery, violent crime and 32 main urban functions in continuous space of Beijing from 2013 to 2018. Firstly, the research demonstrated that even distribution of economic and social activities was controlled, 98% of the “crime-function” combinations were significantly colocalized. The traditional method judging merely on a single spatial scale would probably underestimate the number of types of crime generators. Secondly, most pairs of “crime-function” combinations inverted U-shaped relationships between the scale and degree of colocalization, because criminals were more likely to choose medium returns, risks, and costs in the medium spatial scale. This finding made up the spatial perspective blind spot of routine activity theory and rational choice theory. Thirdly, with improvement of supervision intensity, the degree of colocalization between crimes and all urban functions were gradually decreasing. Owing to obvious ways of committing crimes and higher capture probability, the colocalization spatial scale of violent crime was greater than that of theft or robbery. Fourthly, compared with single colocalization type in existing criminal pattern theory, there were many sub-types such as strong colocalization in large, medium, small spatial scales and weak colocalization, which showed the necessity of subdivisions of crime generators. All in all, nearly half of the “crime-function” combinations have always belonged to the same subgroup, which proves that the crime prevention and control work is evidence-based. Limited resources should be given priority to bus stations, arterial road junctions, foreign-related sites, high-end communities, and factories. Additionally, for the crime prevention work, it is important to formulate specific measures according to the type of crime generators, and break through traditional control concepts of fixed points and fixed jurisdictions. All in all, this study simplified the complex crime space formation mechanism into the geometric relationship between crime points and function points. It should be pointed out that the distance-based method was difficult to control the interference of confounding factors and needed to be addressed in future research.

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。

Fraud crime is a widespread social problem that should be taken seriously in modern city. Previous studies mainly focused on personal attributes of victims at the micro level from the perspective of sociology, rather than the environmental factors at the macro level from the perspective of geography. Using methods such as average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density and negative binomial regression, this paper aims to discuss spatial-temporal characteristics of five types of fraud crime in ZG city, and explore the influencing factors of physical and socioeconomic environment based on the perspective of crime geography. The main results are as follows: (1) Each type of fraud crime has its own characteristics of temporal distribution. However, on the whole, fraud crime takes place on workdays more than on weekends, in the afternoon and evening more than in the morning. It reaches the minimum before dawn. (2) Similar to other urban crimes, the spatial distribution of fraud crime reveals significantly polycentric patterns that follow the trend of distance decay, and hot spots of various fraud crimes are mostly alike except minor differences. Diverse fraud crimes are mostly distributed in the old city, CBD, railway stations, bus stations, urban villages, or around colleges and universities. Each type of fraud crime shows different trends of aggregation and dispersion. (3) Different fraud crimes are influenced by disparate factors, but all of them are highly correlated with physical environment, such as bank branches, tourist attractions, road networks, mixed land use and college or university campuses. Moreover, house ownership, education level, age and urbanization level also have significant effects on fraud crime. The study expands the research of fraud crime to the spatial context and proves that fraud crime conforms to the theoretical assumptions of routine activity theory, which could potentially help reduce fraud.

当前,学界从犯罪人之间的关系模式、关系结构等方面对共同犯罪现象进行了一系列的研究,但缺少对犯罪人地域关系的稳定性分析。论文根据北京市2005、2010、2014年街头诈骗案件数据,利用社会网络原理构建了基于共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络模型,并利用网络分析等方法对参与共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络的结构特征及其变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：在2005—2014年间,参与北京市共同犯罪的犯罪人籍贯地域的空间分布逐渐集中,并形成了以华北地区为主、多个地域中心并存的格局;犯罪人的地域关系网络小世界效应逐渐增强,并从幂律分布模式向指数分布模式发展;参与共同犯罪的犯罪人群中,北京籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐下降,而河北籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐上升;犯罪人地域关系网络的凝聚子群结构逐渐发生两极分化,出现了少数共同犯罪关系异常密切的犯罪人地域子群结构。针对犯罪人地域关系网络形成及演化的原因,论文从外来人口社会关系重构与亚文化的角度进行了分析和解释,对进一步开展犯罪人的共同犯罪关系模式研究具有一定的启示。

A series of studies have been conducted on the phenomenon of co-offending from the aspects of relationship and relationship structure of offenders, but there is a lack of stability analysis on the regional relationship between offenders. Based on the data of the street fraud cases in Beijing in 2005, 2010, and 2014, this study constructed a regional relation network model of offenders based on the principle of social network, and analyzed the structural characteristics and changing trend of the regional relation network of offenders participating in co-offending by means of network analysis. The main results are as follows. The spatial distribution of origins of offenders participating in the co-offending in Beijing was gradually concentrated, and a pattern of coexistenting multicenters was formed with North China as the main area. The small-world effect of regional relation network of offenders gradually strengthened and developed from power-law distribution mode to exponential distribution mode. Among the offenders who participated in the co-offending, the influence of offenders from Beijing gradually decreased, while that of offenders from Hebei Province gradually increased. The cohesive subgroup structure of the regional relation network of offenders gradually polarized, and a few offender regional subgroup structures that are closely related to co-offending appeared. This study also explored the reasons for the existence and evolution of the cross-area co-offending network from the perspectives of social relation reconstruction and subculture of floating population. The results of this study have some implications for the further research on the relationship pattern of the offenders' co-offending.

拐卖儿童犯罪对社会和家庭产生重要影响,成为近年来社会关注的焦点。目前相关实证研究较少,整体认识不足。基于公益平台的成功案例库,借助数理统计与空间分析方法,从犯罪地理学的视角管窥中国拐卖儿童犯罪的时空特征与形成机制。研究发现：被拐年龄与性别关系密切,易拐儿童低龄化,被拐几率与找回几率随年龄波动明显;拐出地与拐入地均乡村多于城镇,拐卖迁移主要发生在乡—乡之间;被拐人数年变化呈现“倒勺状”,可分为四个阶段;年内变化受气温及空气质量影响,也与人口迁移流动频率和范围等有关;平均被拐时长为21.82年,年龄与被拐时长之间存在微弱的负相关;识别了拐出拐入的主体省（市）域及其路径组对,揭示了拐卖的“回流”与地理邻近效应;地区间各要素的“梯度”差异有利于“推—拉”作用产生拐卖迁移。同时,从不同角度和层面提出防控建议。

Criminal child trafficking has caused huge losses and damage to society and families, which, in recent years, has drawn considerable attention. Current studies on the topic have made little progress because of the lack of relevant empirical research and overall knowledge, particularly about the macroscopic features of child trafficking in China. Consequently, based on 647 pieces of data for children who have successfully found their relatives, including parents, through the online public platform "Baobeihuijia", the sociodemographic and spatiotemporal features and formation mechanism of child trafficking in China were examined. SPSS and ArcGIS analysis methods were used from the perspective of crime geography. This study found that the main purpose of trafficking was for forced adoption, and the total number of trafficked male children is higher than that of female children. The trafficking ages are closely related to sex, with younger ages at higher risk. The probability of being abused and the probability of recovery fluctuates notably with age. Trafficking migration happens more frequently between rural areas. The number of child trafficking cases since 1930 generally increased with some fluctuations and peaked during the 1980s and 1990s. The monthly changes are affected by temperature and air quality, and are related to the frequency and intensity of population migration. The average period of captivity of a trafficked child is 21.28 years, and there is a weak negative correlation between age and length of captivity. The core areas of supply are concentrated in Southwest China, while those of demand are mainly in South China and North China. The two crime flows have formed between the three crime areas: the southern route was from Southwest to South China and the northern route was from Southwest to North China. Much larger flows of child trafficking occurred on the southern route than on the northern route. Both supply and demand crimes were found in the country's half southeast of the Heihe-Tengchong Line. Child trafficking presented a geographical proximity effect, and reflux phenomena occurred in several provinces and cities. The "gradient" difference of the factors between different regions is favorable to the "push-pull" effect of trafficking migration. Finally, recommendations are offered from different aspects and levels for crime prevention and control.

拐卖儿童犯罪作为一种影响恶劣的社会现象,已引起公众和学界的广泛关注。基于犯罪地理学视角的相关研究起步较晚且侧重宏观分析,当前亟须聚焦犯罪热区作精细解析。本文以中国拐卖犯罪主要源区贵州省为研究区,采用文本分析、数理统计、空间计量等方法,揭示被拐儿童的社会人口学特征及拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局与影响因素。结果表明：① 1~6岁男童为核心受害对象,拐卖导致的儿童迁移以城乡间交叉流动为主。② 犯罪在1944—2018年间呈“中段高发、首尾低发”态势,空间上集中于贵州西北半壁,尤以贵阳为最,微观地点上高发于人员流动频繁的开放型空间。③ 犯罪路径以“黔入东部”和“川滇入黔”为主,以省内跨市流动为辅。④ 犯罪主要受人口自然变动、生育政策、流动人口和经济发展水平等的影响。

Child trafficking is a long-term criminal phenomenon in China. As one of the serious crimes and complex social problems, it has attracted extensive attention from the public and academic community. Since related studies from the perspective of crime geography started late and most of these studies worked on the pattern of the country, it is urgent to concentrate on high-risk areas and key groups. In this research, we take Guizhou province, one of the major origins of child trafficking in China, as the study area. We use a series of techniques including text analysis, mathematical statistics, and spatial analysis to examine the social-demographic characteristics, spatio-temporal patterns, and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou. Major findings include: (1) more males than females are trafficked in Guizhou, with males aged 1-6 as the main group, followed by aged 12-15, aged 0 and aged 7-11. The trafficked children from Guizhou to other provinces, mainly flow from urban to rural areas while children flow into Guizhou mainly from rural to urban areas. The cross-flow between urban and rural areas is the highest crime flow mode. (2) From 1944 to 2018, the crimes of child trafficking in Guizhou can be divided into three stages: extremely low growth stage (from 1944 to 1984), high fluctuation growth stage (from 1985 to 2000), and low and medium growth stage (from 2001 to 2018). At the same time, the summer half-year and the weekday witness higher incidences of child trafficking months and weeks. (3) At the city level, the crime is predominantly found in the northwestern half of Guizhou, especially in Guiyang city. At the county level, the crime shows a pattern of divergent decline in Guiyang and its surrounding areas. At the site level, it is more common in the open space where people move frequently. The overall crime path is “from Guizhou to the eastern regions of China” and “from Sichuan and Yunnan into Guizhou”, and there is an intercity flow in Guizhou. (4) The crime of child trafficking in Guizhou is mainly affected by the natural population change, family planing policy, floating population, and economic development level.

随着互联网的发展和普及，违法犯罪活动逐渐向网络空间渗透，网络诈骗作为一种典型的网络犯罪，严重威胁社会治安稳定。基于裁判文书网数据库的25 597份网络诈骗一审判决书，采用自然语言处理技术提取了2017—2020年中国县域尺度网络诈骗案件，分析了网络诈骗的时空分布特征。空间自相关分析结果表明，网络诈骗案件多集中在东南沿海地区，包括江苏、浙江、上海、福建以及广东一带。随着时间的变化，2019年安徽、河南的聚集区逐渐消失，而湖南、重庆等地形成了明显的聚集区。网络诈骗犯罪者主要来自福建、湖北、河南、广东、湖南，不同省份的网络诈骗犯罪者分布模式有显著差异，江苏、浙江的网络诈骗犯罪者来源较为分散，广东、福建、河南的网络诈骗犯罪者来源相对集中。

With the development and popularization of the Internet, illegal and criminal activities have gradually penetrated cyberspace. Cyber fraud, as a typical cybercrime, has been causing property losses and seriously threatening social stability. Based on 25 597 first-instance written judgments of cyber fraud cases obtained from the China Judgments Online Database (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), this study used Natural Language Processing (NLP) method to extract county-level cyber fraud cases in China from 2017 to 2020 and analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of cyber fraud. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis show that cyber fraud mostly happens in the southeast coastal areas, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. Over time, the clusters of cyber fraud cases in Anhui and Henan gradually disappeared in 2019, while some other noticeable clusters appeared in Hunan, Chongqing, etc. Nationwide, cyber fraud criminals mainly come from Fujian, Hubei, Henan, Guangdong, and Hunan. There are significant differences in the distribution patterns of cyber fraud criminals in different provinces. Cyber fraud criminals inflow to Jiangsu and Zhejiang are relatively scattered, coming from Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Guangdong, Anhui, etc. Cyber fraud criminals inflow to Guangdong, Fujian, and Henan are comparatively concentrated, mainly come from local province and neighboring provinces.

利用空间统计方法,对于1993~2008年中国省域刑事犯罪率的分布及演变进行分析,结果发现：① 在空间整体分布上,高刑事犯罪率地区逐渐向沿海地区转移。② 在空间关系上,刑事犯罪率的空间集聚程度不断加强,高犯罪率区域集聚在沿海地区,低犯罪率区域集聚在中部地区,形成两极分化。③ 就刑事犯罪率增长而言,存在“俱乐部趋同”现象。同时,构建空间面板计量模型,研究刑事犯罪率影响因素,结果发现：① 在考虑时间和空间异质效应的条件下,流动人口与刑事犯罪率之间没有显著相关;但在与行业收入差距共同作用的情况下,流动人口与刑事犯罪率显著相关。② 行业收入差距对刑事犯罪率影响显著,其稳健性极强;城乡收入差距和省域收入差距对刑事犯罪率没有影响。③ 空间邻近效应是影响刑事犯罪率的极重要因素,其作用程度和稳健性都比流动人口和收入差距对刑事犯罪率的影响来得更为强烈。

By the methods of ESDA, Markov Chains, and based on the data of crime rates at province evel in China from 1993 to 2008, the spatio-temporal pattern change of crime rates were discussed. The results are shown as follows. First, on the overall distribution of space, the higher criminal rates gradually transferred to coastal areas. Second, The crime rates showed a strong trend of spatial correlation, the similar units cluster in space, the higher level spatial units were concentrated in the provinces of eastern China, and the lower level spatial unites were mainly in the provinces of middle China. There was an obvious trend in the “Polarization” of crime rates development level. Third, there exited a phenomenon of “Club Convergence” in crime rates development level in the study area, spatial discrepancy of crime rates development level has become greater. Referring to the previous studies, the relationship among income inequality, floating population and crime rates. In order to improve the overall predicting ability for crime rates at province level, the “spatial effect” is incorporated into the panel econometric model. The panel econometric model includes two effects, fix effect and random effect. Generally speaking, the fixed effect model is favored when the regression analysis is applied to a precise set of regions; random effect, instead, is an appropriate specification if a certain number of individuals are randomly drawn from a large region of reference. For this reason, the fixed effect panel model is chosen, which is extender to include spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable autocorrelation. This article uses spatial lag fixed effect panel regression model to analyze the relationship between macro factors and crime rates. The regression results show that considering the effect of time and spatial heterogeneity of conditions, there is no significant correlation between floating population and crime rates; but under the common role of the industry and the income gap, the floating population and the crime rates has significantly correlation. The correlation between industry income inequality and crime rates is much bigger than the correlation between urban-rural income inequality and regional income inequality and crime rates, and, the result is robust in a series of sensitivity tests, it means that industry income inequality has a leading effect on crime rate. The neighborhood spatial effect is the most important factor when explain crime. The construction of transportation infrastructure leads to time-space compression, and the time-space compression has a profound influence on neighborhood spatial effect.

Historically, informal adoption has been a prevalent Chinese social phenomenon that has altered typical family structures and the lives of children. Due to ambiguous definitions and the scarcity of data on informal adoption, the patterns and processes of informal adoption are not well understood. Therefore, in this study, data from commonwealth websites were used to explore the temporal and spatial patterns and network evolution of informal adoption from 1924 to 2018. The results indicate that severe famine and birth control campaigns increased the number of informal adoptions. Son preference was highlighted during the strict implementation of the one-child policy. From a spatial perspective, the data are distributed in provinces and zones with higher population densities. Major cities also play a key role in information transfer. We expect the findings to provide basic knowledge on informal adoption in China and serve as a reference for the protection of children’s rights.

根据科技资源的内涵与结构,利用全国286 个地级以上城市2001-2010 年科技资源的相关数据,应用改进的数据包络分析方法(DEA) 计算出各城市在不同时期的科技资源配置效率,在此基础上,借助探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA) 对研究期内各城市科技资源配置效率的空间分布格局及演变态势进行分析和探讨。结果表明:① 全国地级以上城市的科技资源平均配置效率一直处于较低水平,且在高低交错中呈现逐年递减趋势,东部地区与中西部地区的科技资源平均配置效率差距逐渐扩大。② 在空间分布上,科技资源平均配置效率与城市群存在较好拟合。从空间的演变格局来看,科技资源配置效率空间自相关显著,呈现出相似值(高高或低低) 之间的空间集聚,空间分布的集聚现象逐步增强,在地理空间上总体差异具有变小的趋势。③ 科技资源配置相对效率的差异是区域发展的普遍现象,它的存在与演变是地理位置、科技资源禀赋、科技环境等诸多方面直接或间接的影响和反映。

The scientific and technological (S&T) resources allocation efficiency of China's 286 cities at prefecture-level during 2001-2010 is measured from both input and output perspectives in this paper. From an input perspective, employees in scientific research and technical services (ten thousand persons), financial expenditure on science (ten thousand yuan), total social investment in fixed assets (a hundred million yuan) and the number of Internet users (household) represent scientific human resources, scientific financial resources, scientific material resources and scientific information resources respectively, while the number of scientific thesis and the numbers of three types of patents which can be retrieved represent the output of technological resources allocation efficiency. The S&T resources allocation efficiency of each city is calculated by the improved data envelopment analysis (DEA) in different periods, while differences of distribution and change rule of it are revealed from spatial and temporal dimensions. Based on this, the spatial-temporal distribution pattern and evolution trend of S&T resources allocation efficiency in prefecture-level cities during the research period are analyzed and discussed with the method of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). The results show that: (1) the average allocation efficiency of S&T resources in prefecture-level cities has been at low level, decreasing annually in a process of high-low crisscross, and the gap between the eastern and central-western China gradually expands. (2) In the aspect of spatial distribution, S&T resources allocation efficiency in prefecture-level cities remains unevenly distributed, and basically presents downtrend from East China, Central China to West China. The cities whose S&T resources allocation efficiency is at high level and higher level present a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China. (3) In terms of spatial evolution trend, S&T resources allocation efficiency of prefecture-level cities illustrates significant spatial autocorrelation and has positive correlation in every stage. The S&T resources allocation efficiency of adjoining cities with similar values (high-high or low-low) is featured by spatial agglomeration. The phenomenon of spatial distribution agglomeration is gradually increasing, while the general geographic difference changes in the trend of diminishing. (4) By observing the LISA map of S&T resources allocation efficiency at different stages, we can find that the spatial location and spatial agglomeration range of four agglomeration types of S&T resources allocation efficiency have changed in different degrees with the elapse of time. The geographical space continuity of S&T resources allocation efficiency progressively enhances. (5) Economic development has been found to be positively correlated with S&T resources allocation efficiency to some extent. However, the improvement of S&T resources allocation efficiency does not depend only on economic development. The differences of S&T resources allocation relative efficiency appears universally. Geographic location, S&T resource endowment, innovation environment and other aspects are directly and indirectly influencing and reflecting the existence and evolution of those differences.

随着地理空间观测数据的多年积累,地球环境、社会和健康数据监测能力的增强,地理信息系统和计算机网络的发展,时空数据集大量生成,时空数据分析实践呈现快速增长。本文对此进行了分析和归纳,总结了时空数据分析的7类主要方法,包括：时空数据可视化,目的是通过视觉启发假设和选择分析模型;空间统计指标的时序分析,反映空间格局随时间变化;时空变化指标,体现时空变化的综合统计量;时空格局和异常探测,揭示时空过程的不变和变化部分;时空插值,以获得未抽样点的数值;时空回归,建立因变量和解释变量之间的统计关系;时空过程建模,建立时空过程的机理数学模型;时空演化树,利用空间数据重建时空演化路径。通过简述这些方法的基本原理、输入输出、适用条件以及软件实现,为时空数据分析提供工具和方法手段。

Following the emergence of large numbers of spatiotemporal datasets, the literatures related to spatiotemporal data analysis increase rapidly in recent years. This paper reviews the literatures and practices in spatiotemporal data analysis, and classifies the methods available for spatiotemporal data analysis into seven categories: including geovisualization of spatiotemporal data, time series analysis of spatial statistical indicators, coupling spatial and temporal change indicators, detection of spatiotemporal pattern and abnormality, spatiotemporal interpolation, spatiotemporal regression, spatiotemporal process modelling, and spatiotemporal evolution tree. We summarized the principles, input and output, assumptions and computer software of the methods that would be helpful for users to make a choice from the toolbox in spatiotemporal data analysis. When we handle spatiotemporal big data, spatial sampling appears to be one of the core methods, because (1) information in a big data is often too big to be mastered by human physical brain, so has to be summarized by statistics understandable; (2) the users of Weibo, Twitter, internet, mobile phone, mobile vehicles are neither the total population nor a random sample of the total population, therefore, the big data sample is usually biased from the population, and the bias has to be remedied to make a correct inference; (3) the data quality is usually inconsistent within a big data, so there should be a balance between the variances of inferences made by using data with various quality and by using small but high quality data.

及早发现异常健康事件的苗头是有效进行传染病早期预警的关键.现有的传染病聚集性探测仅限于时间、空间或时空维度,往往容易忽略病例个人情况从其他方面反映的信息,从而造成过度预警.论文结合蚁群聚类算法和Bayesian Gamma-Poisson 模型,提出一种全新的传染病多维度聚类探测技术.研究区麻疹爆发案例证明该技术在继承以往时空聚集性探测技术思想的基础上,考虑了病例的属性信息,能更为灵敏、准确地找出传染病聚集区域.此方法在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值.

To indentify early signs of unusual health events is critical to early warning of infectious diseases. A new method for detecting multi-dimensional clusters of infectious diseases is presented in this paper. Ant colony clustering algorithm is applied to classify the cases of specified infectious diseases according to their crowd characters; then the cases belonging to the same class in terms of the space adjacency is separated; finally, the prior information about previous diseases outbreaks in the study area is applied to test the hypothesis that there was no disease cluster at various sub-regions. The detection ability of the method shows that this method does not need to accumulate case data within a long time period to detect irregular-shaped hot spots. It is useful for introducing spatial analysis to detection of infectious disease outbreaks.

近年来,细颗粒物污染尤其是PM_2.5受到人们越来越多的关注,研究PM_2.5的时空分布规律也具有越来越重大的意义。传统的遥感反演方法模型复杂,且不能揭示近地表面的PM_2.5分布规律。地面监测站的建设为PM_2.5的研究提供了更实时的观测数据,但由于测量噪声的影响,观测数据存在不准确的极端异常值。为了揭示中国PM_2.5的时空分布特征,本研究采用Kalman滤波对2015年中国338个城市的空气质量监测网络大数据进行最佳估计,并分析其时空特征。同时,根据中国各城市的PM_2.5浓度的时序分布,采用基于DTW的K-Medoids聚类方法将其分为4个等级,并采用q统计量来评估PM_2.5浓度分布的空间分层异质性。结果表明,采用Kalman滤波能有效去除数据噪声,峰值信噪比（PSNR）明显增大。在时空分布上,中国PM_2.5时间分布曲线呈现“U”形,冬季PM_2.5浓度明显高于夏季,且日变化曲线呈现“W”形;秋冬季PM_2.5浓度的空间分层异质性非常显著,且空间分布呈现“双核分布”,重污染区主要分布在华北平原、新疆等地,西藏、广东、云南等地是稳定的空气质量优良区。

As terabyte time series data pour into the world, more and more attentions have been paid to the technique of analyzing this data. To understand discrepancy between these data, time series clustering methods have been used to divide them into different groups by similarities. Due to high dimension of time series, the traditional clustering methods for static data is not valid for time series clustering problem when they are susceptible to noise, and can hardly define suitable similarity which are prone to a meaningless result. It is also vexatious for many other methods to solve the clustering problem with missing or unequal data. Time series clustering methods based on characteristics could deal with these problems and discover the essential similarities of time series in all directions. According to characteristics of time series, this paper aimed to review the research progress of characteristics-based clustering methods for time series. Firstly, we introduced the definition and classified the different characteristics of time series. Then we reviewed different time series clustering methods based on characteristics and summarized the generality of each method. Finally we discussed some deficiencies of existing methods, and predicted the future of the relative research.