陈梦远
荷兰乌特勒支大学城市和区域规划系,乌特勒支 3508TC, 荷兰
CHEN Mengyuan
版权声明: 2017 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
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作者简介:
作者简介：陈梦远(1993-)，男，安徽芜湖人，硕士研究生，主要从事城市地理和经济地理研究，E-mail: bigdreamwq@hotmail.com。
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摘要
区域韧性在中国已成为新兴研究热点,然而国内学者依然将韧性研究局限于均衡论的认识论范畴内。本文首先通过回顾国际最新研究动态从认识论层面辨析均衡论和演化论这两种韧性认知视角的本质区别,由此介绍西方经济韧性的演化论转向。然后从宏观和微观角度阐述演化论视角下区域韧性的形成机制,介绍相关定量测度方法;在此基础上形成系统的西方最新有关研究经济韧性的理论分析框架。未来研究应该在演化论视角基础上强化演化经济地理、创新地理(区域知识网络)和区域韧性这三个研究分支的联系,还应该加强产业历史演化过程的案例研究,并利用专利数据等开放数据源构建产业空间基础数据库。
关键词：
Abstract
Regional resilience has become a trendy research branch. However, traditional Chinese research of resilience had been limited within the equilibrium-based epistemology. This article, based on a review of international literature, clarifies different definitions of economic resilience: engineering resilience, ecological resilience, and evolutionary resilience. The article rejects equilibrium-based epistemology of resilience and argues instead the evolutionary perspective. Then, it introduces the formation mechanism of economic resilience from macro and micro aspects; and introduces quantitative measurement of network analysis. This article concludes that resilience should be extended to the economic field and evolutionary-based perspective. Chinese researchers should notice connections between three research branches — namely evolutionary economic geography, innovation geography, and regional resilience. Future research should focus on case studies of urban and regional economies. They should also explore the existing open patent data source to establish the quantitative database of industry space.
Keywords：
在西方学界,区域韧性/弹性(Regional Resilience)的内涵已由传统基于均衡论(Equilibrium-based)的工程韧性(Engineering Resilience)和生态韧性(Ecological Resilience) 逐步朝基于演化论(Evolutionary-based)的演进韧性转变(Evolutionary Resilience)。应用研究的重点也从提升区域应对外部灾害的能力转向寻求区域长期可持续发展的能力(Davoudi, 2015; 邵亦文等, 2015)。经济韧性,作为韧性理论在社会—经济领域的重要应用(黄晓军等, 2015),已经成为研究经济复苏和可持续发展的工具而备受西方经济地理学者热捧(Pendall et al, 2009),并和演化经济地理和创新地理的核心概念紧密结合,形成较为完备的理论分析框架。
区域韧性也逐步受到中国城市学者重视。很多学者通过直接翻译原文或文献综述的形式积极引进西方理论,并对其本土化应用研究提出很多有益的思考(Campanella, 2015; 彭翀等, 2015; 邵亦文等, 2015; 翟国方, 2016)。然而,中国韧性研究总体仍然处在起步阶段,连韧性本身的概念内涵都需要更清楚的辨析：在很多文献中,韧性的概念依然被局限在均衡论范畴内,被狭义地理解为区域抗击自然或生态负面灾害(如气候变化,飓风,原子弹等)的能力(工程韧性);其应用研究也被局限在以“回归正常”为最终目标的综合防灾规划和市政基础设施规划内(吴浩田等, 2016)。当前,基于演化论的韧性研究虽有所涉及却鲜有详细论述和探讨(胡晓辉, 2012)。创新地理和演化经济地理在中国也属于新兴研究领域,中国学者虽然已经注意到西方创新地理的演化论转向(邓羽等, 2016),却鲜有学者意识到它们和区域韧性研究之间的紧密联系。此外,中国学者普遍渴求区域韧性的测度方法研究(尤其是定量化手段)(蔡建明等, 2012),但缺乏对西方已有的研究成果的系统介绍,甚至有部分学者认为区域韧性是缺乏测度方法的理论模型。
针对国内韧性研究目前存在的诸多问题,本文试图通过回顾国际研究文献,从认识论到空间实践系统地梳理国外最新的区域经济韧性的理论分析框架;并在其中穿插介绍区域韧性和和演化经济地理以及创新地理之间的联系,以期为国内区域韧性的理论和应用研究提供借鉴。首先将从均衡论和演化论两种韧性认知视角辨析区域韧性的概念内涵,并从认识论层面引出西方经济韧性的演化论转向;然后基于演化论,借助演化经济地理学和创新地理学的相关知识介绍相关理论分析框架及定量化测度方法,探讨其实践应用。最后展望未来该理论分析框架的本土化研究方向。
西方学界对区域经济韧性目前存在两种主流认知视角(Hassink, 2010; Pike et al, 2010),即：基于均衡论的视角(Equilibrium-based Perspective),包含工程韧性和生态韧性两种认知思维;基于演化论视角(Evolutionary Perspective),以演进韧性认知思维为代表。
从均衡论视角分析,工程韧性是最为传统、应用最广泛的韧性解释,即：区域在危机后成功恢复到初始平衡状态的速率或区域在外部危机下维持自身系统稳定的能力(Pendall et al, 2009; Fingleton et al, 2012)。该认知思维认为,区域具有单一(理想,健康)的均衡状态,因此任何短暂的外部经济危机都会激发区域固有的自我修复功能使其恢复到原有的均衡状态。高韧性区域意味其抗干扰能力或自我修复能力较强,经济危机也就不会对这些区域的长期经济演化造成深远影响(Martin, 2012)。生态韧性则摒弃工程韧性的单一均衡机制,容许区域是具有多种平衡态的自组织复杂体。这种认知思维认为经济危机虽然在区域长期演化的历史过程中仅仅是短暂的瞬间,但经济危机的冲击若超出区域承受的阈值,则可能会对未来经济结构和演化路径造成深远影响(Pendall et al, 2009)。持有生态韧性思维的经济地理学家普遍关注经济危机的迟滞 (Hysteresis)效应：指区域在遭受危机冲击过后区域经济长期演化的趋势(Martin, 2012)。高韧性区域能在危机过后通过内部经济要素的重组优化自身结构,从而获得更加持续高速的发展;低韧性区域则往往因未能响应外界环境变化实现成功转型而走向持续衰退。生态韧性相较工程韧性更强调区域由于自身地理特质,而在面临不同性质经济危机情况下会出现不同韧性表现;并强调区域在面临经济危机时通过各要素的结构重组所发挥的能动性。它强调经济危机有破除区域系统长期固化形成的锁定状态(lock-in)并调整区域未来发展路径的效应(Pendall et al, 2009; Simmie et al, 2010)。
然而,囿于均衡论视角,工程韧性和生态韧性都将韧性关注点放在区域从经济危机中迅速恢复的能力,以区域经济受影响程度为因变量(例如失业率,GDP变化率等)构建量化评价体系衡量区域韧性高低(Fingleton et al, 2012; Martin, 2012)。这种均衡论视角现在已遭到西方演化经济地理学家的批判。
从演化论视角分析,韧性是区域的固有属性,它独立于经济危机之外并根据外界环境不断调整而动态演变(Martin, 2012)。演进韧性认为区域没有稳定的均衡态(Pendall et al, 2009),因此,通过选取某时间节点测量其应对危机的表现不能作为分析区域韧性高低的依据。持有演进韧性思维的学者将区域视作不断由外界获取新知识并不断发展演化的复杂适应性系统。演进韧性因此被定义为区域不断调整自身社会经济和制度结构以适应长期外部环境变化并持续增长的能力。根据演化经济地理学者的描述,韧性作为区域固有属性蕴含在区域演化的过程中,是区域历史遗产(Historical legacy)和外界环境(包括危机在内)影响而不断自我强化表现出的历史路径依赖。这种历史路径依赖包括长期演化形成的产业结构、生产关系组织、制度安排、创新氛围等(Christopherson et al, 2010; Boschma, 2015)。历史路径依赖的形成最初具有偶然性;然而形成后对此进行转型调整将非常困难。根据Weitzman(1998)的重构增长理论(Recombinant Growth),新产业很难在没有任何基础的情况下在区域内部凭空孕育出来,它必基于区域长期历史演化已经形成的资源、知识禀赋和技能经验的重组(Martin et al, 2006)。这种观点在本质上和Schumpeter等创新地理学家所提出的毁灭性创造理论异曲同工。因此,在演化论视角下,演化经济地理、创新地理和区域韧性这三个研究分支其实有深远的内在联系。
演进韧性及其代表的演化论是较新的认识论,也是本文论述的重点。它代表着西方最新的研究动态;和传统均衡论视角的韧性解释有如下思维差异：
(1) 对稳定性的理解存在差异：传统意义上将稳定性(Robustness)解释为区域面对危机维持原有结构和组成的能力。演进韧性却将稳定性视为区域维持稳定表现和特定功能的能力,容许其内部结构和组成部分随外界环境变化不断变化调整(Martin et al, 2014)。
(2) 对经济危机的理解存在差异：虽然演进韧性和生态韧性两种认知思维都不仅将经济危机视为经济衰退的风险,更视作破除锁定效应的机遇;但演进韧性认为区域历史演化形成的锁定效应会阻碍区域创新演化出全新的路径;而非区域试图回到的均衡(健康)状态(Simmie et al, 2010)。
(3) 对危机的时空观理解存在差异：传统基于均衡论的韧性解释将关注点聚焦于危机这个短暂的时间节点而讨论危机对区域的长期或短期影响,因而方法上以横断面研究为主(Cross-sectional study)(Christopherson et al, 2010)。演进韧性则跳出危机研究本身,而着重于长期区域动态演化的知识网络结构和制度安排等变化是否能提高或降低区域应对潜在风险的能力(longitudinal Study)。
演化论视角和均衡论视角在认识论方面的差异,必然导致理论框架和研究方法与很多中国现有研究存在很大的差异。为帮助中国学者熟悉这种思维下的理论和实践研究,本文将详细阐述西方学者是如何从演化论的认识论角度出发构建理论分析框架,并进行定量化测度和应用于实践。
为了描述区域演化,西方学者将Holling在生态领域的四阶段适应性循环理论引入到经济领域 (Adaptive Cycle)(图1),区域这个复杂适应性系统发展演化可被视为由四个阶段组成的循环：它们分别为:再组织阶段(Reorganization Phase)、开发阶段(Exploitation Phase)、保守阶段(Conservation Phase)和释放阶段(Release Phase)。区域发展演化的各阶段都有不同的潜力(Potential)、关联度(Connectedness)和区域经济韧性(Simmie et al,2010)。
图1 四阶段的区域经济适应性循环模型(来源：Simmie 等(2010)
Fig.1 A four-phase adaptive cycle model of regional economic resilience (Source: Simmie et al, (2010))
如何从演化论的立场上理解适应性循环?如前文所述,基于此演化论立场,区域不存在均衡态;它不断的陷入”锁定”效应又在危机的影响下不断的破除原有要素结构而动态演化。西方学者认为区域演化有两种倾向：①模块化(Modularity)—适应能力(Adaptability)：适应能力较强的区域没有强烈的历史路径依赖,内在经济要素关联弱,面对外来经济危机时调整经济结构并演化到其他新路径的能力强。②冗余化(Redundancy)—适应性(Adaptation)：适应性较强的区域由于长期的历史路径依赖发展,内在要素关联强,经济效率较高。两者不可兼得又不可或缺,适应性循环描述它们之间此消彼长的权衡过程。再组织阶段和开发阶段是循环中的发展和稳定阶段——区域适应性增强而适应能力减弱。区域系统要素内在关联度不断提高,各种生产要素逐步积累使区域经济高效稳定地发展。然而各要素间过高的内在关联会使经济系统滑入锁定状态而缺乏对外界环境变化的适应能力,从而陷入韧性较低的保守阶段。区域若在保守阶段面对外部危机,可能遭遇严酷的结构性衰退。保守阶段和释放阶段是循环中区域经济的僵化和衰退阶段——区域的适应能力增强而适应性减弱。通过结构性调整,区域在释放阶段跳出固有发展模式,进入知识和经济结构的新一轮储备(Simmie et al, 2010)。
相关多样性(Related Variety)的产业结构是能兼顾区域的适应性和适应能力的理想状态(Boschma, 2015)：它既能确保这些产业在每个知识领域里高度相关而使得产业之间能进行充分有效的技术交流,又拥有多样性(多个知识领域)以确保来自不同知识领域的技术能相互组合创新并孕育新的发展路径(Frenken, Van Oortet al, 2007)。因此,拥有相关多样性产业结构的区域有较好的区域韧性。相关多样性理论的提出较好地解决Marshall-Arrow-Romer和Jacobs对区域产业结构的长期争论：专业化和多样化的产业结构究竟孰优孰劣(Boschma et al, 2006)。相关多样性理论指出:专业化的产业结构虽然经济效率高,但很容易因为各经济主体知识储备过于高度相关而进入锁定状态;锁定状态下各主体间因缺乏有价值的知识交换而创新能力缺乏,演化到新路径的能力较弱,在面对针对性较强(Sector-specific)的产业危机时易陷入长期衰退(高适应性—低适应能力)。多样化的产业配置虽然能分散经济风险;但彼此因缺乏技术联系使得产业之间各自为战而难以发挥其规模效应,危机到来时若某生产环节的公司崩溃也缺乏其他公司替代此职能(低适应性—高适应能力)(Boschma, 2015)。因此,持有演化论的经济地理学家认为,相关多样性能兼顾专业化—多样化产业配置的优点,是区域发展的理想状态。
相关多样性的概念非常宏观和抽象,西方学者试图从微观基础对此进行分析。他们发现,公司是区域经济演化的微观单元。它们的技术储备差异巨大并且形成各自独特的产品业务,这种多样化的知识和业务储备是区域创新演化的重要驱动力(Saviotti, 1996; Frenken, et al, 2007)。西方学者将区域演化视作各公司决策行为的动态集合:它们各自根据自身历史形成的不同业务知识储备而不断创新：逐步实现业务多元化(Diversification)以抵御剧烈的市场变化。业务多元化有三种主要路径(Frenken et al, 2007)：①凭公司自身技术储备创立新的业务部门;②接受区域内其他公司的知识溢出;③人才流动。但是,这三种路径都依赖公司现有知识储备(各部门之间的知识交换),或者通过和其他企业开展合作并进行知识交流才能获得。因此,从微观角度分析,区域演化是知识传播交流的建构过程。这种基于知识交流和传播分析区域产业演化的视角已引起了西方创新地理学者的关注。正如邓羽等(2016)所提出的,西方创新地理学者也在逐步走向演化论的方向并和演化经济地理学的理论相融合。
这种理论上的融合经历了漫长的过程。最初,西方学者通过研究创新地理特征发现,知识传播在空间上是高度集聚的。为解释这种地理分布特征,Polanyi (1962)根据知识特性和传播机制的不同将知识分为两类:显性知识——全球传播(Codified Knowledge-Global),缄默知识——地方化传播(Tacit Knowledge-Local)。显性知识以专业学术期刊和专利文献等具有清晰语言描述的文本形式呈现,有显著的公共品特征。通过信息化时代丰富的传播媒介,显性知识能轻易跨越地理距离约束在全球范围内自由迅速传播(Samuelson, 1954)。然而和显性知识不同,缄默知识则很难通过理性思维归纳总结并用符号化语言描述,它必须通过实践活动才能完全掌握(Gertler, 2003; Nelson et al, 2009)。缄默知识传播严重依赖面对面的人际交流,并受高度地方化的搜索成本和理解障碍限制(Howells, 2002)。因此,缄默知识传播高度地方化,但这种缄默知识溢出(Knowledge Spillovers)却是知识和技能重新组合进而创新的重要基础(Boschma, 2015)。这就可以解释为何在咨讯高度发达的信息时代,金融业和IT等信息服务产业却反而甘愿忍受高昂的租金而集聚在全球若干城市群内(Asheim et al, 2005)。
随后西方创新地理学家的研究表明,地理距离并非是技术交流学习所要克服的唯一阻碍(Boschma, 2005)。西方学者因而将距离概念推广成多维度的“关系距离”(Relational Proximity),以强调社会资本对有效沟通的影响(Martin, 2013)。关系距离包括认知距离(交流双方有相似的知识背景)、组织距离(交流双方由于正式或非正式的组织安排存在交流的机会)、社会距离(交流双方基于情感形成的信赖关系)、制度距离(交流双方的共同的社会价值,文化背景等(Boschma, 2005)。本文将着重讨论认知距离。认知距离虽然和地理距离存在正相关关系,但还受到除地理距离外很多社会因素的影响。研究表明,适度的认知距离是实现有效沟通的关键。知识寻求方若因关系距离过大而无法和知识提供方形成相互理解并有效沟通,将极大地限制其知识获取能力(Nooteboom, 2000)。
Boschma等(2010)提出亲近度悖论(Proximity Paradox)以理解所谓“适度”的认知距离：认知距离过近会使得公司个体很难通过交流获取新的知识或见解而落入认知锁定;认知距离过远会使得公司或个体很难获得来自其他领域关键知识和技能,即便真正获得也很难充分理解并转化成有竞争力的产品(Boschma et al, 2014)。亲近度悖论,及其所代表的“关系距离”转向有助于深入理解产业相关多样性的微观本质。它和相关多样性的内在逻辑相通即产业的相关多样性保证各主体间足够接近但不过分接近的认知距离,这是区域内部产业间知识交换创新所必需的微观基础(Frenken, Van Oort et al, 2007)。
网络分析方法在西方地理学界蓬勃发展,其中,创新地理学中的区域知识网络演化可以形象化地展示和分析区域产业结构演变。知识网络由节点(区域产业,公司)和联系(认知距离)构成。Neffke等(2011)指出,在区域知识网络自然演化过程中与知识网络核心紧密联系或成长较快的产业能获得较好发展,处于知识网络边缘或长期没有成长机会的产业更容易被淘汰。其发展演化是历史依赖的过程。
什么是理想的富有效率和韧性的区域知识网络? Crespo等(2014)通过比较不同高度相关性(Degree correlation) 的区域知识网络特征,发现具有韧性的知识网络往往有联系紧密的核心(适应性)和边缘相对适度松散的联系(适应能力)(表1)。因此,区域知识网络必须在节点高度集聚、富有效率的强联系和节点相对离散的、具备外生发展可能性的弱联系之间求得平衡。
表1 不同特征的区域知识网络比较 (来源：由
Tab.1 Regional knowledge networks based on different characters (Source:
| 区域网络结构名称 | 模型示例 | 优点 | 劣势 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 随机网络：高度相关性为0,知识网络节点随机分布 | 无论是由均衡视角还是演化视角,该区域知识网络都有很高的韧性 | 缺乏联系紧密的核心,而缺乏专业化生产效率 | |
| 核心—边缘网络：高度相关性为正值,区域节点之间联系呈现出高联系节点—高联系节点,低联系节点—低联系节点的特征 | 具备紧密的核心,和较强生产效率 | 区域边缘网络和核心联系不够紧密,区域演化到其他路径的能力不足,区域韧性较弱 | |
| 韧性网络：高度相关性为负值,区域节点之间联系呈现出高联系节点—低联系节点,低联系节点—高联系节点的特征 | 既具有紧密的核心,又具备演化到其他发展路径的能力 |
技术关联度(Technological Relatedness)能定量化测量区域知识网络节点(产业)之间的联系。实证研究表明,适宜的技术关联度作为区域的危机缓冲器能显著提高区域韧性(Balland et al, 2015)。如Broekel等(2012)对荷兰动漫产业的分析证明,将区域内产业技术关联度和区域公司的表现分别作为X,Y轴,得到函数图像为倒U型曲线,这表明,适度的技术关联度下的公司表现最佳。Holm等(2014) 通过对丹麦四座造船厂工人在面临经济危机冲击下转业去向以及新工作报酬情况的长期跟踪调查,发现这些劳工更倾向在和原岗位所需知识和技能类似的部门重新就业,以迅速找到有满意报酬的工作。
虽然演进韧性暗含的自组织内在逻辑(Davoudi, 2015)强调区域演化趋势的历史路径依赖,但这并非意味着政府将无所作为。现实生活中存在知识交流的限制(例如缺乏合作机会);产业并非均能凭借市场力量自发演化,政府干预是必须的(Boschma et al, 2014)。政府需要综合考虑其他因素主动介入区域未来演化路径,避免区域因长期历史依赖而滑入锁定效应。这意味着区域知识网络是”可塑”的。然而,由于知识网络各节点蕴含的技术复杂度不同,建设各知识节点投入的人力物力的成本和承担的风险亦有很大差异,建成后的收益也不相同。技术复杂度的差异意味着：政府需要综合考虑建成某个具体知识节点的风险和收益。以下将着重讨论如何将分析框架中提到的两个重要指标——技术关联度和复杂度进行定量化测度。
西方学者衡量技术关联度的定量指标很多。例如,经济地理学家会采用国民经济行业分类作为现成数据库分析技术关联度(Frenken, Van Oort et al, 2007)：若两个经济部门(小类)同属某个中类,则它们需要相似知识或技能,技术关联度较高。劳工在各部门之间的流动情况也是很好的衡量指标：若两经济部门间劳工流动数量显著超过同等产业规模和发展水平的基准数,则说明它们之间技术关联度高 (Neffke et al, 2013)。即使是西方学界流行的共生分析(Co-occurrence analysis)也有很多变种。本文仅以Neffke等(2011)提出的揭示关联度(RR) (Revealed Relatedness)举例说明：它预设公司必须使用标准化的机器,雇佣类似知识背景的员工生产相似产品,所需知识技能也类似。若隶属于不同的两个经济部门的公司会雇佣技术背景类似的员工生产类似的产品以共生数Lij衡量),则说明两个产业之间技术关联度较高。考虑到产业规模对Lij的显著影响,Lij必须与同等产业规模产品共生数的基准值(Qij)作比较。最终的计算公式为：
式中：
以技术关联度为基础,Neffke等(2011)构建了产业空间基础数据库(Industry Space)。它是巨型的知识网络分析图。知识网络中的每个节点代表某特定产业,如果某两个节点之间的技术关联度较高超过设定的阈值,则在它们之间建立联系。由此,关联度高的产业在二维平面聚集并形成若干集群。研究历史依赖的区域演化过程由此变为研究知识网络的成长过程(自然演化过程中新节点进入或旧节点退出;或在某次突发性危机中,通过对知识网络若干节点的冲击使网络重组等)。例如,图2是由Neffke等(2011)的产业空间基础数据库中提取出的部分网络。每个节点代表某个特定产业(共计24个)：蓝色节点代表某区域已经存在的产业,白色节点代表某区域尚未出现的产业。它们之间的联系表示技术关联度(部分技术关联度的数字已标明)。从图2分析可以提供如下政策建议：①遴选和区域其他产业技术高度关联,发展前景较好的产业。例如,政府若通过政策扶持植入产业5,将有很高概率存活并发展。反之若植入和区域原有技术禀赋无直接技术关联的产业10,则需要较高投入并承担较高的失败风险。②通过增强区域产业部门的相关多样性提高系统韧性。例如考虑到该区域拥有1、2、3、4、6为代表的良好产业集群基础,政府可考虑通过引入产业14(或8、13等)使得区域形成产业相关多样性,以避免锁定效应。③部分位于区域知识网络边缘的产业(如产业7、17)若陷入结构性衰退,政府应慎重投入资金支持。
图2 产业空间用于产业政策分析示意(来源：
Fig.2 Illustration of industry space used for industrial policies (Source:
知识复杂度的定量化测度在西方学界还是较新的研究课题,相关研究尚处于起步阶段。复杂度的测度首先需要对现有的网络分析方法进行扩展。笔者目前能追踪到的最新成果是由Balland等(2017)提出的城市—科技网络(City-tech Network)测度方法。他们使用美国的专利数据库中的属性数据分类出438个主要产业类型和366个城市,所有专利数据通过这两种分类构建为二维矩阵并生成可视化的知识网络分析图。与图2所展示的分析图不同的是,城市被嵌入到这个网络分析图中,它们在产业空间中的相对位置则反映了其技术优势领域及在知识网络中的地位。
Balland等(2017)指出,受制于认知距离的传播限制,若某知识领域复杂度较高,则它很难为其他城市所模仿。因此,它在知识网络分析图中会表现为某城市在某技术领域拥有垄断性的比较优势。Balland等(2017)根据此原则创建由两个变量所构成的二维矩阵,即①某领域内的知识在区域中的普遍程度。②某国家/区域拥有知识领域的多样性。衡量知识复杂度的指标KCI是其转为对角矩阵后的特征值。知识复杂度重视技术含量较高的产业对区域竞争力的影响,将复杂度引入产业空间基础数据库作为辅助指标分析,意味着政府不仅仅需要支持相关多样性产业的形成,更需要尽量诱导区域产业集群向着知识复杂度较高的方向发展。
演进韧性思维摆脱了传统思维对经济危机的重视,转而重视区域产业结构的漫长历史演化过程。通过访谈,政策文献等定性研究手段或网络分析等定量手段对区域历史演化分析的案例研究(个体案例研究或者比较案例研究,学者能梳理区域长期积累而形成的资源禀赋和知识技术(知识文脉),并掌握区域面临外界环境冲击下时知识网络的动态变迁,从而识别区域发展的“致胜秘诀”。例如,Glaeser(2005)以波士顿为案例梳理其自英国殖民时代以来的产业变迁并指出：尽管波士顿的主导产业已经历经渔业、工业和金融业、信息产业等不同发展阶段;在此过程中还有发展停滞、衰落和痛苦的产业结构调整,但波士顿依然能维持长期韧性。其原因为：波士顿能积极响应外界环境变化并具有重新组织其自殖民时代逐渐积累的技术资源禀赋(诸如贸易中心地位、教育、移民等等)的能力。而面对匹兹堡这样陷入锁定状态的城市,政府为区域复兴而植入与区域原有知识禀赋不相关的产业时,应慎重考虑其失败风险。Treado(2010)认为,钢铁行业曾经的辉煌为它留下丰沛的技术储备和声誉,这不应该被政府视作负担,而恰恰是匹兹堡实现高新技术转型和复苏的保障。
演进韧性告诉我们,未来新兴战略产业并非适合每个区域,而是高度地方性的。其成功与否和区域特定历史演化背景以及现有知识技术累积休戚相关。政府的最终目标不是刺激某特定战略产业发展,而是诱导区域形成良性演化的相关多样性产业基础;并诱导区域产业结构向着知识复杂度较高的方向发展。由于财政资源限制,政府往往期望能以较低的投资成本推动区域发展。该理论技术框架能帮助政府识别植入某产业的收益和风险,避免因不良政策而导致的盲目后果,即①区域产业过度专业化而陷入锁定风险;②新植入产业和区域原有技术积累技术关联度不够而难以存活 (Boschma et al, 2014);③财政资源不足以承担知识复杂度较高的产业发展风险等等。
通过梳理西方最新演化论视角的区域经济韧性研究可以发现：西方区域经济韧性研究已经超出区域面临经济危机冲击的事件本身,转而关注区域长期动态演化的内在机制。研究表明,区域的自然演化是历史依赖的,伴随着不断创造性破坏的跃迁;它是个体企业知识和技能储备动态集合构成的知识网络响应外部事件并不断调整其自身结构的结果。区域产业结构的理想状态为相关多样性,它能确保区域同时具备较强的适应性(专业化的高效率经济体系)和适应能力(各主体实现交流和创新并演化到其他产业路径的能力)。这要求各微观主体间必须拥有足够接近而又不过分接近的认知距离以确保知识的有效沟通。富有韧性的区域知识网络因此必须在以强联系为主、节点聚集紧密的核心和与弱联系为主的适度松散的边缘间求得平衡。此外,政府也需要引导区域向知识复杂度较高的产业发展。技术关联度和复杂度是衡量产业间联系的重要指标,经济地理学家可以运用网络分析方法构筑产业空间基础数据库,以指导区域产业政策制定。
经济韧性的理论技术框架对中国韧性研究具有重要的的理论和实践意义：①通过对三种韧性认知思维的深入辨析,极大地丰富区域韧性的理论内涵。国内地理研究者在未来应该摆脱基于均衡论的局限,尝试由演化论的角度理解区域韧性。②该理论技术框架打通演化经济地理、创新地理学和区域韧性这三个研究分支的联系,以期为它们的融合发展提供借鉴。传统的创新地理学主要关注创新的空间集聚和缄默知识的地方化传播特征。如今,演化经济地理和创新地理学已逐步实现融合。随着西方学界对“关系距离”的理解不断深化,以及网络分析方法的蓬勃发展,基于认知距离的区域知识网络演化分析已成为重要的创新地理学的研究内容,并和演化、韧性、产业结构等宏观经济地理学概念相结合。③该理论技术框架也具有实践层面的意义。根据演进韧性的观点,区域长期历史演化形成的技术储备应被视作宝贵的财富,政府不应抛弃原有技术积累而过分追逐毫无技术关联度的新兴战略性产业发展,而应通过思考区域自身鲜明地方化特色的技术积累,引导区域产业结构整体避免锁定危机并形成富有韧性的知识网络。地理学家在未来应加强基于演化论的区域韧性理解,并从创新地理学的视角探讨中国特殊背景下知识交换和创新的微观机制,在区域和产业规划的前期研究中加强对区域自身独特的演化路径研究,从地理学角度为中国在未来可能陷入长期衰退的区域,如东北老工业基地、资源枯竭城市或老龄化地区的经济转型升级提供富有针对性的对策。也期待国内学者充分利用日益开放的数据源和发达的计算机硬件设施,构筑适合中国国情的产业空间基础数据库,为区域产业政策制定者提供量化,可视化技术支撑。
经济韧性的理论技术框架今后尚有很大的提升空间。例如,Saxenian等(2001)对美国硅谷—中国台湾新竹创新科技园所形成的研发—OEM装配制造合作的实证研究表明,在全球化背景下,随着高科技产品的不断成熟,从研发到制造的垂直产业链(知识结构)被成功解构为模块,并在全球范围内按照各区域具有的比较优势条件进行配置(Hatch, 2001)。这说明区域演化并非孤立,全球和地方的产业演化其实是相互促进的(Simmie et al, 2010)。产业集群通过增强在特定产业链环节的专业化,提升它在全球的竞争力并激励全球产业集群的合作。因此,在全球产业链分工中各区域能承担的知识复杂度是不同的,这种全球-地方的联动性需要更加深入的研究。同时,知识复杂度的定量化测度方法也尚不成熟,需要更多地改进。此外,本文提出的经济韧性理论技术框架仅能解释区域渐进性的自然演化机制,对于“突变”型技术革命尚未加以很好的解释,不同类型的政府制度安排对区域演化的影响机制更有待进一步探讨(Boschma et al, 2015)。因此,期待中国学者今后能在本文基础上继续进行理论和应用研究的创新。
致谢：笔者撰写本文期间深受荷兰著名经济地理学家Ron Boschma教授的思想启发,并获得南京大学翟国方教授的宝贵意见。在此笔者对两位韧性研究领域的知名教授深表感谢。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Related variety, unrelated variety and regional economic growth [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400601120296 URL 摘要
Frenken K., Van Oort F. and Verburg T. (2007) Related variety, unrelated variety and regional economic growth, Regional Studies 41, 685–697. In economic theory, one can distinguish between variety as a source of regional knowledge spillovers, called Jacobs externalities, and variety as a portfolio protecting a region from external shocks. It is argued that Jacobs externalities are best measured by related variety (within sectors), while the portfolio argument is better captured by unrelated variety (between sectors). A methodology based on entropy measures is introduced to compute related variety and unrelated variety. Using data at the NUTS 3 level in the Netherlands for 1996–2002, it was found that Jacobs externalities enhance employment growth, while unrelated variety dampens unemployment growth. Productivity growth can be explained by traditional determinants including investments and research and development expenditures. Implications for regional policy follow. Frenken K., Van Oort F. et Verburg T. (2007) La variété connexe, la variété sans rapport et la croissance économique régionale., Regional Studies 41, 685–697. Dans la théorie économique, on peut distinguer entre la variété comme la source des retombées de connaissance régionales, dites les effets externes de Jacob, et la variété comme un portefeuille qui protège la région des chocs externes. On affirme que l'on peut mieux mesurer les effets externes de Jacob à partir de la notion de variété connexe (au sein des secteurs), tandis que l'argument qui pr00ne plut00t la notion de portefeuille est mieux saisi par la notion de variété sans rapport (entre les secteurs). On présente une méthodologie fondée sur des mesures d'entropie afin d'estimer la variété connexe et la variété sans rapport. A partir des données au niveau NUTS 3 auprès des Pays-Bas pour la période de 1996 à 2002, on trouve que les effets externes de Jacob augmentent la croissance de l'emploi, alors que la variété sans rapport atténue la croissance du ch00mage. La croissance de la productivité s'explique par des déterminants traditionnels, y compris l'investissement et les dépenses de recherche-développement. Il s'ensuit les implications pour la politique régionale. Variété Croissance; Effets externes de Jacob; Economies d'agglomération; Retombées Entropie Frenken K., Van Oort F. und Verburg T. (2007) Zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt, nicht zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt und regionales Wirtschaftswachstum, Regional Studies 41, 685–697. In der Wirtschaftstheorie unterscheidet man zwischen der Vielfalt als Quelle regionaler Wissensübertragung (den so genannten Jacobs-Externalit01ten) und der Vielfalt als Portfolio zum Schutz einer Region vor externen Erschütterungen. Wir stellen die These auf, dass sich die Jacobs-Externalit01ten am besten anhand der zusammenh01ngenden Vielfalt (innerhalb von Sektoren) messen lassen, w01hrend sich das Portfolio-Argument besser durch nicht zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt (zwischen verschiedenen Sektoren) darstellen l01sst. Mit Hilfe einer Methodologie auf der Grundlage entropischer Messungen ermitteln wir zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt und nicht zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt. Anhand von Daten auf dem NUTS 3-Niveau in den Niederlanden für den Zeitraum von 1996 bis 2002 stellen wir fest, dass die Jacobs-Externalit01ten zu einem Anstieg des Besch01ftigungsniveaus führen, w01hrend nicht zusammenh01ngende Vielfalt den Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit d01mpft. Der Anstieg der Produktivit01t l01sst sich durch traditionelle Determinanten wie Investitionen und Ausgaben für F&E erkl01ren. Im Anschluss werden die Konsequenzen für die Regionalpolitik beschrieben. Vielfalt; Wachstum; Jacobs-Externalit01ten; Agglomerationswirtschaften; U¨bertragung; Entropie; Frenken K., Van Oort F. y Verburg T. (2007) Variedad relacionada, variedad no relacionada y el crecimiento económico regional, Regional Studies 41, 685–697. En la teoría económica, podemos distinguir entre la variedad como una fuente de desbordamientos de conocimiento regionales, llamados externalidades Jacobs, y la variedad como una cartera que protege una región de choques externos. Sostenemos que las externalidades Jacobs se miden mejor según la variedad relacionada (dentro de los sectores), mientras que el argumento de la cartera se capta mejor con una variedad no relacionada (entre sectores). Para calcular la variedad relacionada y la variedad no relacionada, introducimos una metodología basada en las medidas de entropía. Usando datos en el nivel NUTS 3 en los Países Bajos para el periodo 1996–2002, observamos que las externalidades Jacobs aumentan el crecimiento de empleo mientras que la variedad no relacionada desestimula el crecimiento de desempleo. El crecimiento de productividad puede explicarse mediante determinantes tradicionales incluyendo las inversiones y los gastos en I + D. También explicamos las implicaciones para la política regional. Variedad; Crecimiento; Externalidades Jacobs; Economías de aglomeración; Desbordamiento; Entropía
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Tacit knowledge and the economic geography of context, or the undefinable tacitness of being (there) [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/3.1.75 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Within economic geography and industrial economics, interest in the concept of tacit knowledge has grown steadily in recent years. Nelson and Winter helped revive this interest in the work of Michael Polanyi by using the idea of tacit knowledge to inform their analysis of routines and evolutionary dynamics of technological change. More recently, the concept has received closer scrutiny. This paper offers a further contribution to this project by offering a critical analysis of the prevailing implicit and explicit economic geographies of tacit knowledge, focusing on the relationship between tacit knowledge and institutions. While much of the innovation literature focuses on a single question -- can tacit knowledge be effectively shared over long distances -- the paper argues that this issue cannot be properly addressed without considering a broader range of related questions. It highlights three tacit knowledge problems which, together, provide a more complete view of this issue. First, how is tacit knowledge produced? Second, how do firms find and appropriate tacit knowledge? Third, how is tacit knowledge reproduced or shared -- that is, how does tacit knowledge promote social learning processes, and must the participants be geographically proximate in order for effective learning to occur? The paper revisits Michael Polanyi's original conception of tacit knowledge, showing it to be limited by its experiential and cognitive emphasis, with insufficient attention devoted to the role and origins of social context. Alternatively, the paper argues that one cannot sort out the geography of tacit knowledge without inquiring into the foundations of context and culture, and the institutional underpinnings of economic activity, taking the work of another Polanyi -- Karl -- as the logical starting point. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.
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Reinventing Boston: 1630-2003 [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jnlecg/lbh058 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Regional resilience: A promising concept to explain differences in regional economic adaptability [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp033 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
One of the most intriguing questions in economic geography is why some regional economies manage to renew themselves, whereas others remain locked in decline. T
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Design rules, volume 1: The power of modularity [J].https://doi.org/10.2307/259400 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We live in a dynamic economic and commercial world, surrounded by objects of remarkable complexity and power. In many industries, changes in products and technologies have brought with them new kinds of firms and forms of organization. We are discovering news ways of structuring work, of bringing buyers and sellers together, and of creating and using market information. Although our fast-moving economy often seems to be outside of our influence or control, human beings create the things that create the market forces. Devices, software programs, production processes, contracts, firms, and market are all the fruit of purposeful action: they are designed. Using the computer industry as an example, Carliss Y. Baldwin and Kim B. Clark develop a powerful theory of design and industrial evolution. They argue that the industry has experienced previously unimaginable levels of innovation and growth because it embraced the concept of modularity, building complex products from smaller subsystems that can be designed independently yet function together as a whole. Modularity freed designers to experiment with different approaches, as long as they obeyed the established design rules. Drawing upon the literatures of industrial organization, real options, and computer architecture, the authors provide insight into the forces of change that drive today's economy.
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Destruction and reallocation of skills following large company closures [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12302 URL 摘要
This paper analyzes what happens to redundant skills and workers when large companies close down and whether their skills are destroyed or reallocated. The analysis is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative data of the closure of four companies. Getting a job in a skill-related industry or moving to a spinoff firm leads to skill reallocation. Thus, the result depends on regional idiosyncrasies such as industry structure and urbanization. If local policy makers and the owners exert a coordinated effort, it is possible to create success stories of less skill destruction in urban as well as peripheral regions.
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Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbr019 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
The notion of 070705resilience070705 has recently risen to prominence in several disciplines, and has also entered policy discourse. Yet, the meaning and relevance of the concept are far from settled matters. This article develops the idea of resilience and examines its usefulness as an aid to understanding the reaction of regional economies to major recessionary shocks. But in so doing, it is also argued that the notion of resilience can usefully be combined with that of hysteresis in order to more fully capture the possible reactions of regional economies to major recessions. These ideas are then used as the basis for a preliminary empirical analysis of the UK regions.
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Differentiated knowledge bases and the nature of innovation networks [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2012.755836 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
It is argued in this paper that the nature of innovation networks can vary substantially with regard to the type of knowledge that is critical for innovation. Subject to the knowledge base of an industry, networks between companies can differ in various aspects, such as their geographical configuration, their structure, the type of actors holding a strategic position and the type of relations between actors. The paper comprises a conceptual discussion on social capital theory and networks, followed by a theoretically informed discussion on differentiated knowledge bases and innovation networks, which is subsequently illustrated with empirical material. The empirical analysis is based on social network analysis in association with exclusive data about patterns of cooperation and knowledge exchange in a number of regional industries located in different parts of Europe. The findings suggest that networks in analytical industries are not much constrained by geographical distance; knowledge is exchanged in a highly selective manner between research units and scientists in globally configured epistemic communities. Synthetic industries source knowledge within nationally or regionally configured networks between suppliers and customers, and within communities of practice. Symbolic industries rely on knowledge that is culturally defined and highly context specific, resulting in localized networks that are temporary and flexible in nature.
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Path dependence and regional economic evolution [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbl012 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In recent years, economic geographers have seized on the concepts of ‘path dependence’ and ‘lock-in’ as key ingredients in constructing an evolutionary approach to their subject. However, they have tended in to invoke these notions without a proper examination of the ongoing discussion and debate devoted to them within evolutionary economics and elsewhere. Our aim in this paper, therefore, is, first, to highlight some of the unresolved issues surround these concepts, and, second, to explore their usefulness for understanding the regional economic evolution. We argue that in many important aspects, path dependence and lock-in are place-dependent processes, and as such require geographical explanation. At the same time, there has been little discussion of regional path creation: te assumption has been that new technological-economic paths emerge at random or spontaneously across space, an assumption that we find too simplistic. This leads on to the key question as to why some regional economies become locked into development paths that lose dynamism, whilst other regional economies seem able to avoid this danger and in effect are able ‘reinvent’ themselves through successive new paths or phases of development. We conclude that whilst path dependence is an important feature of the economic landscape, the concept requires further elaboration if it is to function as a core concept in an evolutionary economic geography.
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On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Over the past few years a new buzzword has entered academic, political and public discourse: the notion of resilience, a term invoked to describe how an entity or system responds to shocks and disturbances. Although the concept has been used for some time in ecology and psychology, it is now invoked in diverse contexts, both as a perceived (and typically positive) attribute of an object, entity or system and, more normatively, as a desired feature that should somehow be promoted or fostered. As part of this development, the notion of resilience is rapidly becoming part of the conceptual and analytical lexicon of regional and local economic studies: there is increasing interest in the resilience of regional, local and urban economies. Further, resilience is rapidly emerging as an idea ‘whose time has come’ in policy debates: a new imperative of ‘constructing’ or ‘building’ regional and urban economic resilience is gaining currency. However, this rush to use the idea of regional and local economic resilience in policy circles has arguably run somewhat ahead of our understanding of the concept. There is still considerable ambiguity about what, precisely, is meant by the notion of regional economic resilience, about how it should be conceptualized and measured, what its determinants are, and how it links to patterns of long-run regional growth. The aim of this paper is to address these and related questions on the meaning and explanation of regional economic resilience and thereby to outline the directions of a research agenda.
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Skill relatedness and firm diversification [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2014 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Because of the importance of human capital, a firm's choice of diversification targets will depend on whether these targets offer opportunities for leveraging existing human resources. We propose to quantify the similarity of different industries' human capital or skill requirements, that is, the industries' skill relatedness, by using information on cross-industry labor flows. Labor flows among industries can be used to identify skill relatedness, because individuals changing jobs will likely remain in industries that value the skills associated with their previous work. Estimates show that firms are far more likely to diversify into industries that have ties to the firms' core activities in terms of our skill-relatedness measure than into industries without such ties or into industries that are linked by value chain linkages or by classification-based relatedness. Copyright 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How do regions diversify over time: Industry relatedness and the development of new growth paths in regions [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2011.01121.x URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
abstract The question of how new regional growth paths emerge has been raised by many leading economic geographers. From an evolutionary perspective, there are strong reasons to believe that regions are most likely to branch into industries that are technologically related to the preexisting industries in the regions. Using a new indicator of technological relatedness between manufacturing industries, we analyzed the economic evolution of 70 Swedish regions from 1969 to 2002 with detailed plant-level data. Our analyses show that the long-term evolution of the economic landscape in Sweden is subject to strong path dependencies. Industries that were technologically related to the preexisting industries in a region had a higher probability of entering that region than did industries that were technologically unrelated to the region's preexisting industries. These industries had a higher probability of exiting that region. Moreover, the industrial profiles of Swedish regions showed a high degree of technological cohesion. Despite substantial structural change, this cohesion was persistent over time. Our methodology also proved useful when we focused on the economic evolution of one particular region. Our analysis indicates that the Link ping region increased its industrial cohesion over 30 years because of the entry of industries that were closely related to its regional portfolio and the exit of industries that were technologically peripheral. In summary, we found systematic evidence that the rise and fall of industries is strongly conditioned by industrial relatedness at the regional level.
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Resilience and regions: Building understanding of the metaphor [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp028 URL [本文引用: 5] 摘要
We survey literatures from disciplines including ecology, psychology, disaster studies, geography, political science and economics to understand how they see resilience. Some literature describes resilience as a return to conditions before a shock. Other resilience writing embraces a complex systems perspective. For other fields, resilience describes the ability of people, regions or ecosystems to thrive despite adversity. We conclude that although the resilience metaphor poses the danger of fuzziness and necessitates careful specification of space and time boundaries in studying resilience phenomena, it proves useful for illuminating regional change and linking different types of regional stresses to alternative resilience frameworks. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.
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Resilience, adaptation and adaptability [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsq001 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Tacit knowing: Its bearing on some problems of philosophy [J].https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.34.601 URL 摘要
We are able to carry out certain types of operation such as riding a bicycle and yet be quite unaware of how the individual small actions are co-ordinated. We may be able to perceive or infer something as a whole and yet be unaware of the multitude of small clues that have enabled us to form this impression. Various conclusions are drawn from the existence of this kind of knowledge. It is claimed for example that it disproves both behaviourism and the Laplacian view that all the observable properties of the Universe could be deduced if the positions and velocities of all the individual particles were known
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The pure theory of public expenditure [J].https://doi.org/10.2307/1925895 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
CiteSeerX - Scientific documents that cite the following paper: The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure
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The silicon valley-Hsinchu connection: Technical communities and industrial upgrading [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/10.4.893 URL 摘要
Silicon Valley in California and the Hsinchu-Taipei region of Taiwan are among the most frequently cited ‘miracles’of the information technology era. The dominant accounts of these successes treat them in isolation, focusing either on free markets, multinationals or the state. This paper argues that the dynamism of these regional economies is attributable to their increasing interdependencies. A community of US-educated Taiwanese engineers has coordinated a decentralized process of reciprocal industrial upgrading by transferring capital, skill, and know-how and by facilitating collaboration between specialist producers in the two regions. This case underscores the significance of technical communities and their institutions in diffusing ideas and organizing production at the global as well as the local level.
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The economic resilience of regions: Towards an evolutionary approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp029 URL [本文引用: 5] 摘要
In this paper, we review the different definitions of resilience and their potential application in explaining the long-term development of urban and regional e
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Pittsburgh's evolving steel legacy and the steel technology cluster [J].https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp027 URL 摘要
Using an industry studies approach, this article provides an assessment of a cluster of product and service providers that have leveraged regional expertise in a declining industry (steel) to continue to supply technology to a global industry. The formation of Pittsburgh’s steel technology cluster has depended on three main regional factors: location, labour and legacy. In particular, Pittsburgh’s expertise and long tradition in metallurgy and materials science has been the ultimate source of the cluster’s success and the region’s resilience. The results of this research have practical and theoretical implications for regional economic development policy and its relationship to path dependence.
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Recombinant growth [J].https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555595 URL |
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