我国正处于工业化、城镇化快速发展的关键阶段,但区域差异和城乡差异问题长期存在,已经引起学界和政府的高度关注。中央提出“统筹城乡发展,推进城乡一体化”的战略构想,如何在相对落后的西部地区做好统筹城乡发展工作值得认真研究。Granger因果关系检验法在时间序列因果关系检验方面有很多优点,有助于揭示变量之间的相关关系。本文用它来考察我国西部地区城乡收入差距与城镇化发展之间的关系。论文以城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入的差距作为考察对象,以青海省为例对我国西部地区城乡差距及其成因进行了分析。时间序列的协整性检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验表明,青海省城乡收入差距与城镇化之间存在长期均衡协整关系,城乡差距与城镇化之间存在着单向因果关系。在西部实施城镇化和城乡一体化的策略有利于缓解城乡收入差距的进一步扩大。

Abstract: Over the past decade, China has developed very fast. Great achievements have been made almost in every field, especially in urbanization. However, regional difference and urban-rural inequality are still a bottle neck problem for sustainable development. The urban-rural income inequality is evoking a heated discussion in China at present. The study area of this paper is Qinghai Province, a typical western province in China located on the Tibetan Plateau with an average altitude more than 3000 meters above the sea level, and more than half of the province is in arid and semi-arid areas. The urban-rural disparity is higher than the average level and much higher than eastern China. The Granger causality test and cointegration tests have many advantages in time series analysis. This paper uses them to analyze the urban-rural income inequality time series and urbanization time series from 1985 to 2008. By constructing the cointegration tests and error correction model of the urban-rural income inequality time series and urbanization time series, this paper argues that there exists a long term balanced relationship between the urban-rural income inequality and urbanization. The Granger causality tests suggest that the urban-rural income inequality has the Granger-causality with urbanization, but urbanization does not have the Granger-causality with urban-rural income inequality. Urbanization is indeed an important measure to reduce the increasingly urban-rural inequality. But there are many influencing factors in reducing urban-rural disparity, such as historical economic background, scale of central city, geographical environment and natural resources, level of market development, location and transportation, impact of globalization and climate change, quantity and quality of the population and regional development strategy. All of the factors mentioned above will have impacts on the development of urban economy and regional economy in Qinghai Province.