应用遥感和GIS技术及数理统计学的方法，利用1972年MSS遥感影像、1986年和2000年的TM遥感影像，在总结了目前使用较广泛的土地利用类型动态度模型的基础上，提出了转出速度、转入速度、综合动态度、状态指数等模型，并指出唯有将这些模型综合运用，才能更好地理解土地利用类型的动态变化。利用上述模型以及LUCC的幅度、区域差异模型，深入而全面的研究了自上世纪70年代初期以来嘉陵江中下游地区14个县市区LUCC的过程。

In combination with the methods of RS, GIS and Statistics, the process and trend of LUCC in the Area of Middle and Lower Reach of Jialingjiang River are thoroughly studied by establishing mathematical models in the range, speed, trend index and regional differences of LUCC based on the remote sensing imagery data of 1972, 1986 and 2000. The main results are as follows. (1) From 1972 to 2000, the areas of grassland, farmland and unused land are respectively decreased by 26834.18 hm²、6886.68 hm² and 217.84 hm², while those of woodland, cultivated land and water area are respectively increased by 19844.89 hm²、12964.45 hm² and 1129.36 hm². Disconnecting the period by 1986, the area of cultivated land and water area increased at all times, while those of grassland and unused land decreased, and woodland decreased in the first period and then increased in the second period. The farmland was in reverse considering the change of area. (2) From 1972 to 1986, based on the order of the output speed, the six kinds of these land-uses were arranged by grassland, woodland, farmland, unused land, water area and cultivated land. As to the input speed, the order is cultivated land, woodland, grassland, farmland, water area and unused land. In view of general change index, these land-uses were ranked as grassland, cultivated land, woodland, farmland, water area and unused land. The input speed of cultivated land and water land was beyond their output speed remarkably, while that status of woodland was on the contrary, which was in the state of balance. From 1972 to 1986, to separately calculate the indexes in the same way as above, the respective arrangement of the results were unused land>grassland>farmland>water area>woodland>cultivated land, cultivated land>unused land>woodland>water area>grassland>farmland, and cultivated land>unused land>grassland>woodland>water area>farmland. Cultivated land was not quite stable, whose input speed was beyond output speed notably. (3) The land use of Chongqing, Jiangbei and Hechuan had changed mostly in the period according to the change index, and the results were from 0.231% to 0.272%. The values in Gungyuan, Wangcang were from 0.114 to 0.126%. The values in Jiange, Cangxi, Langzhong, Nanbu, Xichong, Nanchong Pengan, Yuechi and Wusheng were from 0 to 0.090%.