通过选取世界255 个大都会区城际轨道交通样本,对城际轨道交通的发展历程、空间分布和网络特征进行了规律性总结;在此基础上,进一步分析城际轨道交通规模与大都会区人口、用地、经济规模之间的相关关系,构建多个回归模型;最后,应用于珠江三角洲区域,对其城际轨道交通的规模和布局进行预测。模型显示,世界大都会区城际轨道交通的规模与经济的相关程度最高,其次是人口和用地,而人均城际轨道规模与人均GDP和人口密度呈指数相关,其中,与人均GDP正相关,与人口密度负相关。应用模型得到,珠三角城际轨道交通的规划规模超前于现有经济发展水平,但低于人口发展水平。近期应重点建设广州、佛山、深圳、东莞4 个城市重要节点的城际轨道交通,构建广佛和广深两条走廊,并联系珠海、中山、肇庆、惠州、江门的中心城区,形成以广州为中心的放射状布局;远期则需要进一步加大广州、深圳、佛山、东莞、珠海、中山的线网密度,扩大线网的覆盖范围,并对外围的肇庆、惠州和江门适当增加联系的节点,最终形成网络状布局。
Based on 255 worldwide intercity rail transit samples, this paper summarizes the spatial-temporal evolution and network characteristics of intercity rail transit, analyzes the correlation between intercity rail transit scale and metropolitan population, area and economic scale, and then constructs five regression models. Finally, it predicts the scale and layout of intercity rail transit in the Pearl River Delta of China by applying the models. The models indicate that that the scale of intercity rail is mostly related to regional economic scale, and less related to regional population and area scale. Meanwhile, there is exponential correlation between regional intercity rail scale per capita and regional GDP per capita as well as the population density. And the rail scale per capita is positively correlated to GDP per capita while negatively related to population density. According to the application of regression models, the planning scale of intercity rail transit in the Pearl River Delta is advanced comparing with the economic development while lagged comparing with the population development. In a short period of time, the intercity rail should connect the significant nodes in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan as well as the inner cities in other cities in the Pearl River Delta. In the long term, the rail line density should be increased in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai and Zhongshan, and the nodes number should be increased in the periphery cities including Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen.
[1] Henderson H. Light rail, heavy cost. Planning, 1994, 60 (5): 8-14.
[2] Priemus H, Konings R. Light rail in urban regions: What Dutch policymakers could learn from experiences in France, Germany and Japan. Journal of Transport Geography, 2001, 9(3): 187-198.
[3] Belzer D, Autler G. Transit oriented development: Moving from rhetoric to reality. 2002-06-15[2010-04-04]. http://www.ulisacramento.org/documents/tod/4.Implementation/IM6.pdf.
[4] Givoni M, Rietveld P. The access journey to the railway station and its role in passengers' satisfaction with rail travel. Transport Policy, 2007, 14(5): 357-365.
[5] Givoni M, Banister D. Airline and railway integration. Transport Policy, 2006, 13(5): 386-397.
[6] Nijkamp P, Reggiani Aa, Tritapepe T. Modelling inter-urban transport flows in Italy: A comparison between neural network analysis and logit analysis. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 1996, 4(6): 323-328.
[7] Mandel B, Gaudry M, Rothengatter W. A disaggregate Box-Cox Logit mode choice model of intercity passenger travel in Germany and its implications for high-speed rail demand forecasts. The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(2): 99-120.
[8] Martin J, Nombela G. Micro economic impacts of investments in high speed trains in Spain. The Annals of Regional Science, 2007, 41(3): 715-733.
[9] Sakanishi A. Commuting patterns in the Osaka Metropolitan area: A GIS-based analysis of commuter rail passengers. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 2006, 18(1): 41-59.
[10] Senior M L. Impact on travel behavior of Great Manchester's light rail investment (Metrolink Phase 1): Evidence from household surveys and Census data. Journal of Transport Geography, 2009, 17(3): 187-197.
[11] Froidh O. Market effect of regional high-speed trains on the Svealand line. Journal of Transport Geography, 2005, 13(4): 352-361.
[12] Bollinger C R, Ihlanfeldt K R. The impact of rapid rail transit on economic development: The case of Atlanta's MARTA. Journal of Urban Economics, 1997, 42(2): 179-204.
[13] Zhu X, Liu S. Analysis of the impact of the MRT system on accessibility in Singapore using an integrated GIS tool. Journal of Transport Geography, 2004, 12(2): 89-101.
[14] Ryan S. The value of access to highways and light rail transit: evidence for industrial and office firms. Urban Studies, 2005, 42(4): 751-764.
[15] 袁家冬, 李少星. 日本三大都市圈快速轻轨交通网的形成与发展. 世界地理研究, 2005, 14(3): 1-6.
[16] 陆化普, 王建伟, 陈明. 城际快速轨道交通客流预测方法研究. 土木工程学报, 2003, 36(1): 41-45.
[17] 王海强, 马国忠, 刘开元. 基于重要度的城际轨道交通空间出行分布预测的研究. 交通标准化, 2005, 2(3): 93-96.
[18] 曹小曙, 刘望保. 城际轨道交通规划建设对珠江三角洲区域空间的影响. 现代城市研究, 2005(12): 43-46.
[19] 边经卫. 大城市空间发展与轨道交通. 北京: 中国建筑工业出版社, 2006.
[20] 颜琼. 城际轨道交通沿线土地集约利用对区域经济发展的作用. 都市快轨交通, 2006, 19(2): 6-12.
[21] Wikipedia. Light rail. 2012-01-29[2012-01-29]. http://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_rail.
[22] Wikipedia. Commuter rail. 2012-01-18[2012-01-29]. http: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_rail.
[23] Wikipedia. High-speed rail. 2012-01-28[2012-01-29]. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail.
[24] Demographia. Demographic World Urban Areas & Population Projections. 5th ed. 2012-01-23[2012-01-29].www.demographia.com.
[25] Taplin M. The history of tramways and evolution of light rail. 2006-08-24[2010-04-04]. http://www.lrta.org/mrthistory.html.
[26] Rodrigue J P, Comtois C, Slack B. The Geography of Transport Systems. New York: Routledge, 2009.
[27] 吕韬, 姚士谋, 曹有挥, 等. 中国城市群区域城际轨道交通布局模式. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(2): 249-256.
