在重新阐述旅游本底趋势线理论及危机评估方法的基础上,依据1996年1月—2009年11月客流量统计值,采用月指数分解模型与本底线距平方法,分析了五大危机事件对美国出入境旅游的影响。结果显示：① 1998年亚洲金融危机,使来自日韩及港台的入境游客显著减少,对美国入境旅游影响期16个月,累计损失游客221.7万人次,旅游收入累计损失76.45亿美元；② 2001年9.11恐怖袭击事件对美国入境旅游影响持续26个月,累计损失游客1178.2万人次,出境旅游影响持续15个月,累计损失游客526.8万人次；旅游收入和旅游花费累计损失218.41亿美元和134.20亿美元；③ 2003年SARS危机与9.11事件相连,对入境旅游影响期12个月,损失游客773.6万人次,出境旅游影响期10个月,损失游客214.8万人次；旅游收入和旅游花费累计减少146.34亿美元和80.31亿美元；④ 2004-2006年间受到6次飓风灾害的影响,每次飓风对入境旅游影响期2~3个月,累计损失游客234万人次；出境旅游影响期2~3个月,累计损失游客106.8万人次。⑤ 2008年金融海啸对出境旅游的影响大于入境旅游,截至2009年11月,累计损失入境游客721.6万人次,出境游客463.9万人次；旅游收入损失168.66亿美元,旅游花费减少165.47亿美元。最后,本文还从事件性质、发生源地、影响机制和波形特征等方面,对五大危机事件的影响进行了横向比较,为清晰认识旅游危机提供了科学依据。

Based on the data from Jan. 1996 to Nov. 2009 and the tourism background trend line model, this paper restates the relevant theory and evaluation methods, and analyzes the influences of five crises on American inbound and outbound tourism by using monthly index. During the Asian financial crisis, tourists from Japan, South Korean, Taiwan and Hong Kong were obviously decreased, thus, US inbound tourism was affected for 16 months, with an accumulative loss of 2.22 million person-trips and 7.65 billion(receipts) dollars. The most serious crisis was 9/11 terrorist attacks, which caused tremendous impacts on US inbound tourism and outbound tourism, which were respectively affected for 26 and 15 months, with accumulative losses of 11.78 million and 5.27 million person-trips and 21.8 billion(receipts) and 13.4 billion(payments) dollars respectively. The power of SARS towards inbound tourism lasted for 12 months with an accumulative loss of 7.74 million person-trips and 14.6 billion dollars. Affected by 6 hurricanes from 2004 to 2006, US inbound tourism accumulatively lost 2.34 million person-trips and about 3 billion dollars (receipts), and outbound tourism accumulatively lost 1.07 million person-trips with almost no effects on tourism payments. Novel result is that the effects of every tsunami can only last for 3 to 4 months toward inbound tourism and 2 to 3 months for outbound tourism, while the accumulative damage of the undergoing global financial tsunami is, according to the on-hand data, respectively 7.22 million and 4.64 million person-trips for inbound tourism and outbound tourism, and 16.9 billion and 16.5 billion dollars respectively for tourism receipts and payments. Finally, comparing the influences of the five events from the aspects of characteristics, origins, affecting mechanism and wave forms, this paper provides a scientific basis for a clearer understanding of crisis management in tourism industry.