怒江流域地处中国云南的边境， 是全球生物多样性和生态景观保护的重要地域， 但由于人 口的增加， 粮食需求的扩大及城市的扩展， 流域林地生态系统面临着强烈的人类干扰。文中使用 中国资源环境数据库中， 用Landset TM解译获取的怒江流域1985， 1995， 2000 年1∶10 万土地利 用/覆被数据， 在GIS 空间分析基础上， 通过建立动态度和变化转移概率矩阵， 系统地研究了怒江 流域林地与其他土地覆被类型之间以及不同林地类行之间的动态变化规律及其空间格局特征， 并对造成变化的驱动力因子进行了定性分析。

Forest ecosystem, the main terrene ecosystem, plays a key role in balancing the carbon budget and keeping the water and soil in global climate change. Nujiang basin, located in Yunnan Province in southwestern China, is the main passageway and refuge for migrating species in Eurasia and is famed for its rich biodiversity. The data used in this paper is 1∶100000 scale land use and land cover maps in 1985, 1995 and 2000, which are provided by Resource and Environment Database of Chinese Academy of Science. According to natural attributes, the forest was classified to four kinds, which are forestland, shrubbery, woodland, and orchard. By using spatial intersect analysis of ARCGIS 9.0, the index of relative change degree of forest land and transition matrix of forestland change type was calculated. The researches found out: the forestland landscapes of Nujiang basin have taken great changes. The rate of forest decrease during 1995 to 2000 was much more than the rate of forest increase during 1985 to 1995, and there were 35.6% forest land which had transferred into cultivated land, glass land and construction land. Further analysis shows that the forestland change in Nujiang basin is restricted by social economy factor.