基于多智能体的城市人口分布动态模拟与预测
网络出版日期: 2010-03-25
基金资助
湖南省重点学科建设项目(2008001)
The Dynamic Simulation and Forecast of Urban Population Distribution Based on the Multi-agent System
Online published: 2010-03-25
城市人口分布变化过程是复杂的动态系统，掌握其规律在城市规划和社会可持续发展中有重要意义。用相互作用的多智能体系统(MAS)、元胞自动机(CA)环境及城市人口密度模型构建精确到街道的城市人口分布模型，并以长沙为例，分析城市人口分布的演变过程，为相关的调控提供决策依据。研究结果表明，其模拟的城市人口分布格局与实际情况吻合较好，在多种因素的影响下，长沙市将形成“市中心人口快速增长，近郊区人口缓慢增长，沿湘江畔、沿五一大道及岳麓区高新技术开发区人口密集”的发展格局。与以往的模型进行相比，所获得的模拟结果精度更高，更接近于实际的空间分布格局。
肖洪1,2|田怀玉2|朱佩娟2|于桓凯3 . 基于多智能体的城市人口分布动态模拟与预测[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010 , 29(3) : 347 -354 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.03.014
The changing process of urban population distribution is a complicated dynamic system, so to learn its law is of great significance in urban planning and social sustainable development. Taking the interaction of the multi-agent system (MAS), cellular automata (CA) environment and urban population density model to build the urban population distribution model which can be accurate to the streets, this paper analyzes the process of urban population distribution in Changsha so as to provide a decision-making basis for related regulation. The research results show that the simulation of urban population distribution pattern is in agreement with the actual situations. Under the influence of various factors, Changsha’s population development will follow such a pattern: the downtown population grows rapidly while the suburban population increases slowly, and along the Xiangjiang river bank, the Wuyi road and the Yuelu high-tech development zone, the population will get very dense. Compared with the previous model, the simulation results obtain a higher precision, and therefore are much closer to the actual spatial distribution pattern.
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