农地规模经营是促进农民增收、粮食增产和低碳生态经济发展的重要条件。利用山东省利津县137 个农户抽样调查数据,基于风险厌恶理论和生产边际报酬递减规律,构建Logistic 模型,分析影响农户农地规模经营的主要因素,进而运用柯布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas) 生产函数对利津县农地适度经营规模进行模拟分析。结果表明：①根据预期效用最大化的原则,利津县农户农地规模经营意愿强烈,64.86%的农户选择农地规模经营的生产决策；②户主就业类型、农地租赁行为、农地资源禀赋、收入非农化程度是影响农地规模经营意愿的主要因素,其中就业非农化程度越高、收入非农化比重越大、农地资源越为匮乏,农户农地规模经营意愿越弱；已经发生农地租赁行为的农户,其农地规模经营意愿相对较强；③当前生产力条件下的农户适度经营规模为22.2 亩,据此推算出农村劳动力转移率为65.02%。农村劳动力的有效转移和家庭土地承包使用权的流转是推进农地适度规模经营的重要前提,创新机制和政策是实现农地适度规模经营的关键。
Scale operation of farmland favors farmer's income and grain yield rise and development of low-carbon economy. Based on the data collected from 137 rural households in Lijin of Shandong Province, abiding by the theory of risk aversion and appended bonus regressive rule of production, interesting insights are obtained into farmer's willingness to accept scale operation of farmlands. A logistic regressive model, which includes such variables as personal characteristics of the household, family conditions, economic features, and external factors is established. Furthermore Cobb-Douglas' production function is applied to determine the suitable scale when farmers benefit most from optimal allocation of arable land, capital and labor. The results are obtained as follows. Most of the households strongly desire to expand farmland operation, and 64.86% of them make that decision based on the law of risk aversion. Household master's vocational status, land renting experience, land resource potentials and off-farm income level are the dominant influential factors for farmers to carry out scale operation. The conclusion is that households with higher off-farm income and more job opportunities and scarcer land resources are less willing to rent anyway. However, households that have already rented show stronger aspiration for more farmlands. This paper finds that under the current productivity, the appropriate scale of farmland operation is 22.2 mu per capita, and the rural labor transfer index is 65.02%. The key to farmland scale operation is to transfer rural surplus labor to the urbanized areas. It is very important to establish mechanisms and policies for innovation to guarantee farmland scale operation.
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