基于广西4 个典型站点52 年气侯资料的Morlet 小波分析,对广西低温阴雨天气灾害波动频率规律进行研究,结果表明：①广西2-4 月平均气温逐渐增高,低温阴雨的年总天数逐渐减少,结束日期逐渐提前;②广西2-4 月平均气温变化存在30 年、18-19 年、12 年和3 年的振荡周期,其中30 年周期为温度变化的主控周期;低温阴雨年总天数变化存在30 年左右、10 年左右和2-5 年左右的振荡周期,主控周期南北分布不一致,由北向南,主控周期的尺度也逐渐变小;③广西2-4 月平均气温和低温阴雨总天数在大尺度(30 年)的振荡上表现出了一致性。研究表明,利用小波理论研究灾害天气波动规律具有很好的效果。
Based on the analysis of the 52-year climatic data from four typical stations in Guangxi with the method of Morlet wavelet, the frequency features of the cold rainy weather in Guangxi have been investigated. The results show that (1) the average temperature between February and April in Guangxi increases gradually, the annual number of cold rainy days decreases gradually and the end dates of this kind of weather have become earlier; (2) the average temperature of Guangxi between February and April has the robust periods of 30 years, 18-19 years, 12 years and 3 years, and among them, the 30-year period is dominant. The annual number of cold rainy days has the robust periods of 30 years, 10 years and 2-5 years, but the dominant period is different meridionally with the value decreasing southward; (3) the robust period of the average temperature and the annual number of cold rainy days in Guangxi between February and April is consistent in the large-scale (30a) oscillations. These results show the advantage of the wavelet theory in the research on the frequency structure of the disaster weathers.
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