由于大气中温室气体的不断增加， 全球气候发生了巨大变化。据最新气候模式模拟研究表 明未来全球气候将发生更为剧烈的变化， 这必将对很多部门产生显著的影响特别是对气候变化 十分敏感的农业。尤其对于中国这样的人口大国， 农业作为社会最基本也是最重要生产部门之 一， 气候变化将对中国的农业生产带来巨大的影响。小麦是中国的第二大作物， 其中冬小麦占全 国小麦总产量近90%， 因此评价气候变化对中国小麦生产影响是十分必要的。为了分析在未来气 候变化情景下中国小麦生产可能遇到的风险， 以15 年ECMWF 再分析实验数据(1979~1993)作为 边界条件驱动PRECIS 区域气候模式模拟产生作物模型所需要的气候资料并输入CERES-Wheat 模型， 验证CERES-Wheat 模型与区域气候模式PRECIS 结合的模拟能力。在以上验证工作的基 础上， 将区域气候模式PRECIS 的模拟结果与作物模型CERES-Wheat 相连接， 同时考虑到CO2 对小麦的直接施肥作用， 模拟了两个小麦站点(定西和合肥)在IPCC SRES A2 和B2 情景下雨养 和灌溉小麦的变化趋势。得到如下结论: 无论是在A2 情景还是B2 情景， 定西和合肥的小麦产量 都会有所增加， 但增加的幅度相差很大。A2 情景的增产效应一般要大于B2 情景的增产效应， 灌 溉小麦比雨养小麦更加受益于气候变化， 冬小麦(合肥) 产量的增长幅度要大于春小麦(定西) 增 长幅度。CO2 对小麦生长的肥效作用十分明显， 产量增幅很大。以上结果说明未来气候变化可能 会对我国的小麦生产带来益处， 但由于未来气候情景模拟的不确定性以及CO2 肥效作用通常是 在作物过程中的水肥条件完全满足的情况下才充分体现， 这都给研究结果带来了不确定性， 但本 项研究为评价未来气候变化对中国小麦生产影响提供了一种全面的评价方法。

The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate change will be more severe in this century based on climate models project. And it will have significant impacts on many human sectors, especially on agriculture. Agriculture is the foundation of society, especially for China with large population. Wheat is the second most important crop in China. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impacts of climate change on wheat in China. In order to predict the future risk of climate change on Chinese wheat production, firstly, fifteen- year ECMWF re- analysis data (1979~1993) is used as quasi- observed boundary conditions to drive regional climate modeling system- PRECIS, then the dataset is employed to test the effects of feeding CERES-Wheat model with RCM daily outputs directly via comparing the simulated results and the station observation. Based on the above validation, two wheat stations (Ding Xi and He Fei) were selected to assess the possible changes of future two production under IPCC SRES A2 & B2 scenarios. The rained and irrigated wheat production without and with CO2 fertilization effect, were simulated respectively. It is shown that: regardless of A2 or B2 scenarios, the future climatic change will increase wheat yield both in Dingxi and Hefei to some extent, but the range increased differs greatly. The yield increasing effect of A2 scenario will be generally greater than B2 scenario, the irrigated wheat will benefit more than rainfed wheat, the winter wheat (Hefei ) has larger increasing degree than spring wheat (Dingxi ). With the directly fertilizer effect of CO2, all the treat will increase by a large margin.