山东沭河上游流域考古遗址预测模型
Predictive Model of Archaeological Sites in the Upper Reaches of the Shuhe River in Shandong
Online published: 2009-07-25
以山东莒县沭河上游流域地区为研究案例，通过对大汶口、龙山和岳石文化时期遗址空间结构及其与环境特征的关系分析，建立了基于GIS的沭河上游考古遗址预测逻辑斯蒂回归模型，较为精确地分析得出遗址分布与地形高度、河流分布等因子间的定量关系。研究结果表明，山东莒县沭河上游流域地区遗址点分布在高程较低和坡度低于3°的地方，说明遗址点多选择在较为适宜农业活动的地方；在遗址选择朝向上，整个研究区域的朝向分布比较均衡，但以西、西南、东和东南为主；史前人类的居住地主要沿支流分布，而远离干流，以避免洪水灾害的危害；随着时间的推进，遗址点所处位置的高程和坡度逐渐增高增大，距离河流的各种距离总体上也呈增加的趋势，这与人类克服环境限制能力的提高有关系。
倪金生 . 山东沭河上游流域考古遗址预测模型[J]. 地理科学进展, 2009 , 28(4) : 489 -493 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.04.002
Taking the upper reaches of the Shuhe River in Juxian County of Shandong Province as a case study, this paper analyses the spatial distribution and environmental characteristics of Dawenkou, Longshan and Yueshi cultural sites. Then a GIS-based logistic regression predictive model is built for the archaeological sites in the upper Shuhe River so that the quantitative relationships of the sites distribution with the altitudes and rivers distribution are identified. Results show that the archaeological sites in the upper Shuhe River were located in areas with lower elevation and slopes less than 3°, indicating that the sites were distributed in areas that were more suitable for local agricultural activities. In terms of the direction of the site selection, there was a more balanced distribution, with the west, southwest, east and southeast dominating the entire study area. The settlements in pre-historical periods were mainly located along the tributaries but far away from the mainstream so as to avoid flood disasters. With the elapse of time, the altitudes and slopes of the sites as well as their distances to the rivers tended to increase, which were related with the increased human ability to overcome environmental constraints.
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