新疆天山北坡干旱区GDP时空模拟
网络出版日期: 2009-07-25
基金资助
国家973重点研究项目(2009CB421301)；国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAH12B03)；新疆主体功能区区划项目
GIS Based Space-time Simulation of GDP in Arid Regions: Taking the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains as an Example
Online published: 2009-07-25
针对资源环境研究领域对空间型社会经济数据的需求，本文以新疆天山北坡为试验区，在分析区域经济发展特征的基础上，根据分县控制、分产业建模的思路，建立基于土地利用的1 km栅格GDP空间化模型对统计型经济数据进行空间分布仿真模拟。对第一产业产值采用面积权重的方法进行拟合；对第二产业建立基于道路的反距离加权模型；第三产业则以城镇规模为基础，通过引入城市边缘距离概念建立多中心的距离衰减加幂指数模型。结果表明，天山北坡GDP空间分布模拟在分产业和分县水平上具有较高精度，模拟值与真实值间的相对误差均在1%以内。从研究区GDP的空间分布来看，高值区主要集中在米泉至沙湾一线，以乌鲁木齐市、石河子市以及克拉玛依市为核心向周围地区辐射；城市内部GDP密度由城市中心向外围递减，建成区GDP密度明显高于城郊及农村地区。1995、2000和2007年三期GDP模拟结果的对比较真实地反映了区域经济发展的历程，对准确把握区域经济动态具有一定的实用价值。
黄莹1, 2, 3|包安明1, 4|陈曦1|刘海隆1|杨光华1, 2 . 新疆天山北坡干旱区GDP时空模拟[J]. 地理科学进展, 2009 , 28(4) : 494 -502 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.04.003
The traditional economic data expression is based on the administrative regions at county or province level, which conceals the inner difference of the calculation area. It cannot satisfy the requirement of the study of resources and environmental sciences.Land use data integrate lot of information of factors affecting economic distribution. A close spatial relation between land use and economic distribution can be established using the data of the nature of land, the production mode of primary industry, the input and output of industry, and the proportion of service in China. After analyzing the characteristics of the regional economic development, we consider the GDP of counties separately and constructed the model based on land use for three types of industries to simulate the difference of GDP in arid area using 1 km × 1 km grid-cells. To the primary industry, we considered the influence of land-use type and land quality, the area weightiness method is adopted, using linear equation to fit it; According to the influence of road on secondary industry, a road-based counter-distance weighted model is built to calculate the secondary industry output indices, and then the spatialization of the secondary industry output is implemented. For the output of tertiary industry, a power exponential model based on the scale of town and the distance from the center of town is derived from distance decay function. We take the GDP data in the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang in 1995, 2000, 2007 as a case. The results show that the precision of each simulation result is high both at industries and counties level, the relative errors between the simulation results and the statistical ones are all below 1%. From the distribution map, we can see that the high value areas are mainly distributed from Miquan to Shawan, and dispersed radially from Urumqi, Karamay and Shihezi to their surrounding areas. In city area, the GDP density is decreased from the inner city to the outskirts, and the downtown GDP density is much higher than the suburban one. This is highly matched the fact. The time series analysis reflected the process of regional economic development and fit the distribution characteristics of regional economy well. Compared with other models, the simulation method we used in this case is more practicable and effective.
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