青藏高原全新世降水变化对于过去全球变化研究有重要意义。在过去全球变化研究中, 大尺度区域降水序列重建缺乏可行、有效的方法, 本文以青藏高原作为研究区, 构建了分区古降水空间模拟－多区面积加权的集成方法, 重建全新世青藏高原降水序列。本研究以孢粉为环境证据, 选取有空间代表性的10 条由孢粉重建的高原样点降水序列, 获得716 条具有年代的定量降水记录, 建立全新世古降水记录数据集。借助GIS分析, 基于现代高原降水空间分布的地理因子模拟, 并与古降水记录相集成, 定量重建了高原全新世200 年分辨率的降水序列。结果显示:早全新世高原降水迅速增多, 并在9.0 kaBP达到极大值500 mm, 较现代高170 mm;9.0~5.6 kaBP是旺盛的湿润期, 降水总体比现代高出80 mm, 但呈现明显的下降趋势;5.6 kaBP以来降水减少, 降水与现代相当, 但波动幅度较小;集成序列与其他高低分辨率环境记录有很好的可比性, 说明集成序列有很好的代表性和一定的准确性。
The precipitation change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Holocene is of great importance to the study of global change in the past. There is a lack of practical and effective methods to reconstruct precipitation in a large-scale region in the previous studies on global change, and in order to solve this problem, this study takes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research area and combines the method of partitioned space simulation of ancient precipitation and multi-area weighted method for the purpose of reconstructing the precipitation series of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Holocene. As the vegetation variation of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau can well reflect the precipitation change, this study mainly takes pollen as the circumstantial evidence, selects ten pollen reconstructed precipitation series of sampling points on the plateau, acquires 716 signaled quantitative precipitation records and reconstructs the precipitation series of the plateau in Holocene. With the help of GIS analysis, based on the geographical simulation of spatial distribution of modern plateau precipitation, and integrated with the ancient precipitation records, this paper quantitatively reconstructed the 200-resolution precipitation series of the plateau during the Holocene. The results indicated that during the Holocene the precipitation went up rapidly, reaching a peak of 500 mm at 9 ka BP, 170 mm more than that in modern times. The period 9-5.6 ka BP was a moist period with the total precipitation 80 mm more than that at present. However it showed a downward trend. Since 5.6 ka BP the precipitation went down compared with the present time with small fluctuation. Synthetic series are comparable to the other records in a high or low resolution, which means synthetic series are representative and accurate.
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