区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和潜力定量认证的方法及其不确定性分析是国家应对气候变化的重要基础工作。目前国内外对于陆地生态系统碳汇以及增汇潜力计量方法已经开展了大量的研究，提出了温室气体排放清单的计量方法，CDM(清洁发展机制)造林再造林项目碳汇的计量方法，以及土地利用变化碳汇计量等方法，国家温室气体清单的方法仅适用于国家范围的碳汇计量，对于区域碳汇计量却十分粗略。CDM造林再造林项目仅局限于森林管理等项目，而未涵盖将来可能列入碳汇目标的其它生态系统增汇管理措施。目前，关于森林、草地、农田等区域尺度生态系统碳汇计量还没有形成统一的、标准化的方法体系。本文对IPCC 国家尺度的碳排放和陆地增汇技术评估方法体系、土地利用对陆地碳源汇影响的评价方法、以及人为管理措施下陆地生态系统增汇效应计量方法进行了详细的阐述，并对每种计量方法的不确定性进行分析，期望为中国陆地生态系统固碳速率、增汇潜力的计量、报告、认证和核查方法论和技术体系的建立提供依据。
任伟, 王秋凤, 刘颖慧, 何念鹏, 刘迎春, 付超, 于贵瑞
. 区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和潜力定量认证方法及其不确定性分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011
, 30(7)
: 795
-804
.
DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.07.003
Carbon inventory certified methods of carbon sequestration rate and potential in terrestrial ecosystem at region scale and their uncertainty analysis are the scientific foundational work of taking practices to mitigating the global warming potential. A large number of studies have been carried out on the measuring methods of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink and the carbon sequestrating potential ,and the national greenhouse gas inventory methods, CDM (Clean Development Mechanism projects) afforestation and reforestation project methods, carbon inventory method in land-use and land-cover change and some other methods were proposed. National greenhouse gas inventory was applicable to state-wide measurement of carbon sequestration, and was not suitable for regional carbon inventory. CDM afforestation and reforestation project focused on the carbon sequestration potential of forest management, and did not take the practices of increasing carbon sinks carried on other ecosystems into account. To date carbon sequestration measurement for forest, grassland, farmland and other regional- scale of ecosystems do not have a uniform and standardized methodology yet. In this paper, we first introduced national greenhouse gas inventory methods, CDM afforestation and reforestation project methods, carbon inventory method in land-use and land-cover change and analysis their uncertainty in detail. Then we proposed a carbon inventory method applicable to farmland, grassland, forests and other terrestrial ecosystems, aiming to provide scientific basis for establishing the methodology for measuring, reporting, and verifying the carbon sequestration rate and potential in regional terrestrial ecosystems.
[1] IPCC. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis// Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M. eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2] IPCC. 2003 Good Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme//Jim Penman, Michael Gytarsky, Taka Hiraishi, Thelma Krug, Dina Kruger, Riitta Pipatti, Leandro Buendia, Kyoko Miwa, Todd Ngara, Kiyoto Tanabe and Fabian Wagner. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan, 2003.
[3] IPCC. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan, 2006.
[4] 国家林业局应对气候变化和节能减排工作领导小组办公室. 中国绿色碳基金造林项目碳汇计量与监测指南. 北京: 中国林业出版社, 2008: 1-67.
[5] 陈泮勤, 王效科, 王礼茂. 中国陆地生态系统碳收支与增汇对策. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008: 97-244.
[6] Houghton R A. The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850-1990. Tellus B, 1999, 51(2): 298-313.
[7] 于贵瑞. 全球变化与陆地生态系统碳循环和碳蓄积. 北京: 气象出版社, 2003: 139-303.
[8] IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidlines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Workbook (Volume 2) Land Use Change and Forestry. Paris, 1996: 1-54.
[9] 于贵瑞, 王秋凤, 刘迎春, 等. 区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和增汇潜力概念框架及其定量认证科学基础. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 771-787.
[10] Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P. Global consequences of land use. Science, 2005, 309(5734): 570-574.
[11] Watson R.T, Noble I. R, Bolin B, et al. Land Use, Land Use Change,and Forestry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000: 23-51.
[12] Whittaker R H, Likens G E. Methods of assessing terrestrial productivity//Lieth H, Whittacker R H. eds. Primary productivity of the biosphere.New York, USA: Springer- Verlag, 1975: 305-328.
[13] Houghton R A. Why are estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance so different? Global Change Biology, 2003, 9 (4): 500-509.
[14] 潘嫄. 近300 年中国部分省区农林土地利用及其对陆地碳储量的影响[D]. 北京: 中国科学院研究生院, 2005: 22-31.
[15] Houghton R A. Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000, Tellus B, 2003, 55(2): 378-390.
[16] DeFries R, Houghton R A, Hansen M, et al. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and regrowth based on satellite observations for the 1980s and 90s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2001, 99(22): 14256-14261.
[17] Achard F, Eva H D, Mayaux P, et al. Improved estimates of net carbon emissions from land cover change in the tropics for the 1990s. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2004, 18, GB2008, doi:10.1029/2003GB002142.
[18] Ellis E, Pontius R. Land-use and land-cover change, 2007. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Land-use_and_landcover_change, [2009-12-04].
[19] 唐俊梅, 张树文. 基于MODIS数据的宏观土地利用/土地覆盖监测研究. 遥感技术与应用, 2002, 17(2): 104-107.
[20] 葛全胜, 戴军虎, 何凡能, 等. 过去300 年中国土地利用， 土地覆被变化与碳循环研究. 中国科学: D辑, 2008, 38 (2): 197-210.
[21] Heistermann M, Mülle C, Ronneberger K. Land in Sight: Achievements, deficits and potentials of continental to global scale land-use modeling. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2006, 114(2-4): 141-158.
[22] 冉有华, 李文君, 陈贤章. TM图像土地利用分类精度验证与评估: 以定西县为例. 遥感技术与应用, 2003, 18 (2): 81-86.
[23] 黄耀. 地气系统碳氮交换: 从实验到模型. 北京: 气象出版社, 2003: 1-254.
[24] IPCC. Climate change 2001. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[25] 李怒云, 吕佳. 林业碳汇计量. 北京: 中国林业出版社, 2009: 1-330.
