利用云南气温和降水资料， 分析了云南气候变化特征及强降水极端天气和高温干旱事件对全球气候变暖的响应。以云南香格里拉、西双版纳、昆明地区为代表， 分析了区域气象要素变化趋势。结果表明: 云南近50 年气温变化与全球、北半球、中国变化趋势基本一致， 气温变化幅度略大于全球， 弱于北半球和全国变化。云南20 世纪80 年代中后期以后出现增暖现象， 以90 年代后期增温最明显， 1986 年以来出现13 年暖冬， 大部分地区冬春季降霜日数减少。随气候变暖， 香格里拉地区降雪日数呈下降趋势， 西双版纳地区雾日明显减少， 全省降雨日数逐渐减少， 大雨频率变化不大， 暴雨、大暴雨频率上升， 高温干旱事件频率增加。进入21 世纪以后， 云南降水减少， 高温干旱事件有增强增多趋势， 由2～3 年一遇变为1～2 年一遇。2005 年春夏连旱和2006 年春旱是云南近50 年和20 年来最严重的旱灾。

Some features of the climate change and response of extreme strong rainfall events and droughts to global climate warming over Yunnan Province have been analyzed by using temperature and rainfall data. The regional climate changing trend also has been explored respectively in the areas of Shangri- la, Xishuangbanna and Kunming. The results shows Yunnan temperature changing trend in recent 50 years behaved nearly in paralleling with the global, Northern Hemisphere and China, Yunnan temperature changing range is slightly more than the global and a little less than the Northern Hemisphere and China. The average temperature over Yunnan Province has been increasing since the late 1980s and has become most obviously warmed since the 1990s, and 13 warm winters have occurred since 1986. The number of frost days in winter and spring has gradually decreased in many areas over Yunnan. With the climate warming in recent years, the number of snow days in Shangri- la and fog days in Xishuangbanna has been decreased most obviously and the number of rain days also has decreased gradually, the change of heavy rain occurrence frequency was not obviously, but rainstorm appeared frequently, the occurrence frequency of heat wave and drought events increased. Upon entering the 21st century, the changing trend of rainfall over Yunnan has been reduced, the number of heat wave and drought events has been changed frequently and increased, and the occurrence frequency interval changed from 2- 3 years to 1- 2 years. The spring and summer continuous drought in 2005 and spring drought in 2006 were respectively most severe drought events over Yunnan Province in recent 50 and 20 years.