土地利用系统动态变化模拟研究进展
收稿日期: 2010-03-01
修回日期: 2010-06-01
网络出版日期: 2010-09-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目((40701009)
Land Use System Dynamic Modeling: Literature Review and Future Research Direction in China
Received date: 2010-03-01
Revised date: 2010-06-01
Online published: 2010-09-25
土地利用/覆被变化与环境要素的动态作用过程自LUCC相关研究计划开展以来一直是重点内容，并且愈来愈受到重视。将土地利用主体的决策过程和环境要素变化过程综合起来研究土地利用系统动态变化，是实现土地自然生态系统与社会经济系统藕合研究的途径与方法。本文在对土地利用系统复杂性分析的基础上，提出口前土地利用系统变化模拟需要解决的基本科学问题，主要包括土地自然环境要素对土地利用主体决策的影响、不同空间尺度土地利用主体及主体间相互作用及在此基础上的区域土地利用动态变化模型研究。土地利用模型是分析土地利用系统结构与功能的有力工具，通过分析土地利用系统模拟研究进展发现国内外真正实现了自然生态系统和社会经济系统综合研究的模型尚不多见。基于主体的土地利用模拟方法综合了土地利用变化中空间变化和主体决策过程，适合于分析土地利用系统变化的空间过程、空间相互作用和多尺度现象。本文在对国际上基于多主体模型进行土地利用系统模拟的相关进展、模拟平台等分析评述的基础上，提出未来我国开展基于多主体模型进行土地利用变化研究的建议。
裴彬, 潘韬 . 土地利用系统动态变化模拟研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010 , 29(9) : 1060 -1066 . DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.09.006
The dynamic inter-relationship of land use/cover change (LUCC) and its environment has been one of the major issues since the LUCC study started in the 1980x. To integrate both processes of land user’s decision making and environmental change to investigate land use system dynamics is one of the feasible approaches to couple physical system and social syetem into a more complicated land use system. Based on the complexity analysis of land use system, this paper summarizes the major research problems in LUCC modeling, including (1) how to analyze the influence of physical characteristics on decision making process, (2) how to quantify the interaction between different user, and (3) how to build regional land use dynamic models. Models are recongnized as one of the powerful methods to study the structure and function of land use system. Till now, few models can truly intergrate the physical subsystem and socio-economic subsystem into more comprehensive models to simulate more realistically the land use change processes. While the agent based modeling (ABM), which considers the spatial dimension and the decision making process of land use change, is more suitable for simulating land use change process on spatial, interactive and multi-scale dimensions. Based on the review of the researches on agent based modeling of land use change, this paper proposes some suggestions for such works in China.
Key words： agent based modelling; complexity; dynamic change; land use system
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