利用潮白河五个水文站1956年以来的径流资料,应用多种数值分析方法,详细分析了潮白河径流的年际、年内分配规律,计算了人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明,潮白河径流的年际变化剧烈,丰水时段历时很短,而枯水时段历时很长。应用累积滤波器和肯德尔秩次相关法,对年径流变化趋势所作的定性和定量的结果表明,潮白河年径流总体呈减少趋势,且减少趋势显著。根据年径流累积曲线和回归分析,人类活动是引起潮白河径流减少的主要因素。

By the data of five hydrological observation stations, the paper analyzes the time-space distribution regulation of annual runoff. That is, for all of the hydrological observation, the annual runoff distributed unevenly. The runoff between July and October accounted for from 59.21%～76.03% of the total annual runoff. Besides, to annual runoff quantity, rich water period was very short, generally, only 1～3years; but low water period was very long, may last 13years. To analysis the variance of more than 40 years annual runoff, two methods are applied. The two results indicate that the variance tendency of the annual runoff show obviously decline.Using the data of the hydrological observation stations, the paper describes the accumulation curve of the annual runoff, which is divided into two parts in the various periods, one is not affected by human activity, and the other is affected by human activity. A correlation is founded between the annual runoff of affected by human activity and that of the stations unaffected by human activity. Through calculating accumulation value of affection by human activity of Daiying, Zhangjiafen, and Suzhuang hydrological observations, it accounts for 53.92%, 67.71%, and 71.23% of the total reduced value. The results demonstrate that human activity was the main factor leading to reduction of annual runoff compared with annual precipitation. Affected by human activity, especially the utilization of water resources, the natural ecology environment and the water recycle system had been deteriorating in recent several decade years. So reasonably utilization and optimal arrangements of water resources basing on systematic analysis are becoming more and more important. It will be urgent task to protect and use water resources rationally in the future.