土地利用变化及其效应是目前全球变化研究的热点之一。本文以山东省为例,在分析土地利用结构特点和粮食总产量的时间变化趋势的基础上,进一步探讨了土地利用变化对粮食生产的影响。其影响主要表现在:土地利用类型变化与粮食播种面积、土地利用程度变化与粮食总产、土地利用集约度与粮食单产等三个方面。针对上述影响进一步探讨了保障粮食生产可持续发展的措施及土地利用分区,可为区域土地利用取向和制定粮食发展政策提供科学依据。

Land use change and its effects are important contents of global change study.Taking Shandong Province as a case,land use structure and temporal variation of total grain yield are analyzed in this paper.Based on the results of analysis,the effects of land use on grain production are further discussed.As a result,it is found that:the changes of land use type directly influence grain crop sown area and the sown structure variation of different grain crop;the degree of land use directly influences multiple crop index,which causes the variation of total grain yield;the intensive degree of land use causes the variation of grain yield per unit area.Lastly,the measures of realizing the sustainable development of land and grain production are put forward.For example,we must control the increase of population strictly and protect arable land in order to level off grain crop sown area, and increase the intensive degree of land use and soil productivity for enhancing grain yield per unit areaAccording to the status and characters of land use,Shandong Province could be classified as five groups,and every group has different direction in land use.These measures will provide an important basis for making policies on the sustainable development of land use and grain production of Shandong Province.