地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 695-706.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.016

• 研究综述 • 上一篇    下一篇

地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

熊琛然1,2, 王礼茂1,2,*(), 屈秋实1,2, 向宁1,2, 王博1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-26 修回日期:2019-09-23 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2020-06-28
  • 作者简介:熊琛然(1985— ),男,湖南永州人,博士生,主要从事能源经济/地缘政治研究。E-mail: xiongcr.17b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41971163);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010202);国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA041)

Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research

XIONG Chenran1,2, WANG Limao1,2,*(), QU Qiushi1,2, XIANG Ning1,2, WANG Bo1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-04-26 Revised:2019-09-23 Online:2020-04-28 Published:2020-06-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971163);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010202);Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(16ZDA041)

摘要:

地缘政治风险是影响全球和区域和平、稳定与发展的5大风险之一。如何识别、评估、预测和管理地缘政治风险成为国内外共同关注的问题。国内外学者对地缘政治风险这一术语的定义还不统一。当前地缘政治风险研究,在致险因素分析、风险影响刻画、风险量化与制图等领域都有一些新进展。针对地缘政治风险致险因子的时空差异性和多变性、各致险因子相互影响与反馈机制的复杂性以及地缘政治风险的突发性和不确定性,对致险因素的精准识别,地缘政治风险形成的机理,地缘政治风险监测与模拟等研究成为核心和前沿问题。中国未来地缘政治风险和重要研究方向包括:周边地区地缘政治风险研究;地缘政治风险的定量化与模拟研究;跨学科、大数据、多终端的地缘政治风险集成计算方法与预警服务平台建设;凝炼科学问题,提升对现实地缘政治问题的解释能力。

关键词: 地缘政治, 地缘要素, 风险, 量化与预估, 进展与展望

Abstract:

Geopolitical risk is one of the five categories of risk identified in the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report, with significant effects on the global and regional peace, stability, and development. How to identify, measure, forecast, and manage the impact that geopolitical risks on human well-being are taken into consideration by researchers worldwide. Global scientific researchers have not yet reached a consensus on the definition of geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risk research has made notable progress in the fields of 1) analyzing the causal factors of geopolitical risks; 2) identifying the impact of geopolitical risks; and 3) measuring and mapping geopolitical risks. Considering the fact that challenges come from the spatiotemporal differences and variability of geopolitical risk factors, the complexity of the various risk causing factors on interaction and response mechanisms, and the unpredictability and uncertainty of geopolitical risks, geopolitical risk research has made further progress on the following frontier issues: 1) identification of geopolitical risk causing factors; 2) occurrence mechanism of geopolitical risks; and 3) monitoring and simulation of geopolitical risks. Future directions of geopolitical risk research in China include: 1) research on national geo-security with spatial differentiation, especially forthesurrounding areas of China; 2) quantitative reconstruction and numerical simulation of the geopolitical risks across multiple scales and multiple geo-factors; 3) new computation ways supporting the interaction of other scientific disciplines and the use of big data, and new platform integrating early warning of geopolitical risks; 4) focusing on scientific issues and promoting the ability of theoretical and practical research output in dealing with geopolitical issues.

Key words: geopolitics, geo-factors, risks, assessment and forecast of geopolitical risks, progress and prospect