地理科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 249-259.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.02.004

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带经济韧性空间分异与驱动因素

袁丰1(), 熊雪蕾2, 徐紫腾2, 于灵慧1,3   

  1. 1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,南京 210008
    2.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,河南 开封 475001
    3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-04 修回日期:2022-11-15 出版日期:2023-02-28 发布日期:2023-02-24
  • 作者简介:袁丰(1982— ),男,江苏无锡人,副研究员,主要从事城市和区域发展研究。E-mail: fyuan@niglas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42171189);国家自然科学基金项目(42001138);国家自然科学基金项目(42101178);中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所自主部署项目(NIGLAS2022GS06)

Spatial differentiation and driving factors of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

YUAN Feng1(), XIONG Xuelei2, XU Ziteng2, YU Linghui1,3   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2022-05-04 Revised:2022-11-15 Online:2023-02-28 Published:2023-02-24
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171189);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001138);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101178);Science and Technology Planning Project of NIGLAS(NIGLAS2022GS06)

摘要:

2008年金融危机对中国实体经济造成了巨大冲击,考察危机后区域经济恢复过程的不平衡性和差异化机制,有利于为推动区域高质量和可持续发展提供参考借鉴。论文基于多维韧性测度框架,全面考察国际金融危机后长江经济带经济韧性动态演变过程,重点分析了抵抗力、恢复力的时序变化特征和空间分异格局。在此基础上,采用固定效应面板回归模型,重点考察经济结构特征对不同阶段区域经济韧性的影响。研究发现:从总体层面来看,长江经济带遭受冲击后的抵抗力呈先上升后下降的趋势,整体表现为高水平抵抗力,而恢复力呈明显的波动特征;出口韧性的抵抗力和恢复力的波动远大于GDP、工业、消费、就业维度的波动;回归模型表明,多样化和相关多样化、区域创新能力等因素,虽然在危机初期抵御风险的过程中作用有限,但有利于区域在危机过后尽快实现恢复增长。研究有助于探索建立适应中国高质量发展的经济韧性测度框架,可以为推动长江经济带高质量发展提供参考。

关键词: 区域经济韧性, 抵抗力, 恢复力, 相关多样化, 非相关多样化, 长江经济带

Abstract:

The 2008 global financial crisis had a huge impact on China's real economy, and inspecting the imbalance and differentiation mechanism of the regional economic recovery process after the crisis is conducive to providing a reference for promoting regional high-quality and sustainable development. Based on the multidimensional resilience measurement framework, this study comprehensively investigated the dynamic evolution process of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt after the 2008 global financial crisis, and focused on the temporal variation characteristics and spatial differentiation patterns of resistance and resilience. On this basis, the fixed effect panel regression model was used to analyze the role of factors such as industrial development status, regional development foundation, level of opening up, government management level, and innovation environment on economic resilience. The study found that at the overall level, the resistance of the Yangtze River Economic Belt after the impact showed a trend of first rising and then declining and the overall performance was high, but the resilience showed a trend of decline-rise-decline and the overall performance was low. The fluctuations in export resistance and resilience were much greater than the fluctuations in the dimensions of GDP, industry, consumption, and employment. Regression models showed that diversity and related diversity and regional innovation capabilities, although limited in the process of resisting risks in the early stage of the crisis, were conducive to the rapid regional resumption of growth after the crisis, areas with strong government management capabilities may hinder economic recovery to a certain extent, and the ability to open up to the outside world has no significant impact on resistance and resilience.

Key words: regional economic resilience, rebound, recovery, related diversity, unrelated diversity, the Yangtze River Economic Belt