地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 770-784.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.05.003

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域产业相关多样化和非相关多样化对中国出口市场多样化的影响

蒋晟1,2(), 贺灿飞1,2,*()   

  1. 1.北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871
    2.北京大学—林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-26 修回日期:2021-11-26 出版日期:2022-05-28 发布日期:2022-07-28
  • 通讯作者: *贺灿飞(1972— ),男,江西永新人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事经济地理、产业与区域经济研究。E-mail: hecanfei@urban.pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:蒋晟(1994— ),男,浙江金华人,博士生,研究方向为贸易地理和跨国公司。E-mail: 1901111739@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731278)

Effects of related variety and unrelated variety on China’s export market diversification

JIANG Sheng1,2(), HE Canfei1,2,*()   

  1. 1. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2021-07-26 Revised:2021-11-26 Online:2022-05-28 Published:2022-07-28
  • Supported by:
    Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41731278)

摘要:

在出口环境下行的背景下,出口市场多样化成为应对贸易冲击的重要策略,也是中央的重要政策方向。近年来,经济地理学界开始关注产业多样化对于产业出口拓展的影响。基于以上背景,论文利用2002—2016年中国海关数据,构建产业相关多样化和非相关多样化指标,从HS四位数产业尺度分析区域产业多样化对于区域出口市场多样化的影响,并进一步构建中介变量来分析其中的影响机制。此外,考虑产业多样化对于不同产业影响的差异,将产业分为劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型3类进行分析。结果表明:① 产业多样化显著促进了区域出口市场多样化的提升;② 产业多样化主要通过降低企业的出口沉没成本来促进区域出口市场多样化,且产业相关多样化的促进作用更强;③ 相反,产业多样化会抑制企业生产效率和产品创新能力的提升,进而抑制产业的出口市场多样化;④ 产业多样化的影响存在明显的产业异质性,其中,劳动密集型产业能从两类产业多样化中获益,而资本密集型和技术密集型产业仅能从产业相关多样化中获益。研究一方面为区域贸易政策的制定提供了新思路,即通过提升本地产业多样化来强化区域的市场拓展能力;另一方面也为经济地理学理解产业多样化对于产业出口拓展的影响提供了新的证据和思考。

关键词: 相关多样化, 非相关多样化, 出口市场多样化, 产业创新, 产业出口拓展, 演化经济地理, 中国

Abstract:

Under the background of export depression, export market diversification is not only a useful strategy to resist external shocks, but also an important policy agenda. Recently, effects of industrial diversification on export extension have received plenty of attention from academic researchers. This study examined the effects of related and unrelated variety on regional export market diversification at HS 4-digit industry level based on China Customs data during 2002-2016 and explored the mechanisms of industrial diversification. In addition, heterogeneous effects of related and unrelated variety across different industries were empirically examined. Based on entropy proxy, this study constructed the proxies of export market diversification, related variety, and unrelated variety and found that both related and unrelated variety can enhance export market diversification. This study also constructed three mediating variables to capture the mechanisms of industry diversification and found that both related and unrelated variety can promote export market expansion by reducing firms' export sunk costs, but impede export market expansion by damaging firms' productivities and innovation capabilities. This study classified all the 4-digit industries into three types, including labor intensive industries, capital intensive industries, and knowledge intensive industries and found that labor intensive industries benefit from both related and unrelated variety; capital intensive industries benefit from related variety, but are negatively affected by unrelated variety; and knowledge intensive industries benefit from related variety, but not affected by unrelated variety. The results of this study not only afford a new perspective for trade policy making, but also provide new evidence and analysis for the research of industry diversification and export market diversification.

Key words: related variety, unrelated variety, export market diversification, industrial innovation, export expansion, evolutionary economic geography, China