“一带一路”背景下中欧港口航运网络的演化特征

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.05.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国与欧洲位于欧亚大陆的东西两端,中欧的贸易畅通是“一带一路”发展的重要内容。当前,中欧经贸联系仍主要通过海运完成,中欧港口航运网络的连通是贸易畅通的保障,因此,研究中欧港口航运网络的发展演变对于认识和保障中欧贸易的畅通具有重要意义。依据近20 a的3个时间断面(1995、2005、2015年）航运数据,构建中国与欧洲各港口航线联系网络,并通过刻画港口航运网络的复杂性特征,揭示不同港口节点可达性变化的空间分异,进而从中转港体系、网络组织结构两方面探讨中欧航运网络的演化特征。研究表明：① 1995年以来,中欧航线联系的港口节点显著增加,网络覆盖范围明显扩大。2005年和2015年网络均表现出明显的小世界特征和无标度特性;不同港口航线联系的广度、深度和可达性变化差异明显,其中84%的港口可达性增强,地中海和阿拉伯海沿岸少数港口可达性减小。② 中欧航运网络的中转港体系由“V”型转变为“U”型,核心中转港出现分化、中转节点逐渐体系化,中转路径趋于多元化,网络稳定性增强。③ 中欧航运网络的轴—辐组织结构不断优化,网络运行效率明显提升,航线联系更加多元化、复杂化。中欧港口航运网络的轴—辐空间结构经历了“三角型”“均衡哑铃型”和“非均衡哑铃型”3个阶段,最终形成以上海港和鹿特丹港为主枢纽的多层次轴—辐空间组织结构。

关键词: “一带一路”, 中欧, 复杂网络, 空间联系, 轴—辐系统

Abstract:

China and Europe are located at the east and west ends of Eurasia. The smooth flow of trade between China and Europe is an important part of the development of the Belt and Road region. At present, China-Europe economic and trade ties are still mainly maintained by sea. The connection between Chinese and European ports through shipping network is the guarantee of smooth trade. Therefore, studying the development and change of China-Europe port shipping network is of great significance for understanding and enhancing the supporting capacity of China-Europe trade links. Based on the shipping data of the past 20 years, the network of Chinese and European port routes is constructed. By portraying the complexity of the port shipping network, the spatial differentiation of the portability changes of different port nodes is revealed. Then we explored the characteristics of change of the China-Europe shipping network by the transit port system and the network organization structure. The result shows that: 1) Since 1995, the port nodes linked to the China-Europe routes have increased significantly, and the network coverage has expanded significantly. In 2005 and 2015, the network showed obvious small world and scale-free characteristics; the changes in the breadth and depth of connection and accessibility of the different ports were significantly different, with 84% of the ports being more accessible, and a few ports in the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea showed reduced accessibility. 2) The transit port system of the China-Europe shipping network has changed from V-shaped to U-shaped. The core transit ports have become differentiated, the transit nodes have gradually become systematic, the transit paths have become more diversified, and the network stability has increased. 3) The hub and spoke structure of the China-Europe shipping network is continuously optimized, the network operation efficiency is significantly improved, and the route links are more diversified and complicated. The hub-spoke spatial model of the China-Europe port shipping network has experienced three stages of change from triangular to balanced dumbbell type and unbalanced dumbbell type, which finally formed the multi-level hub-spoke spatial organizational structure, with Shanghai and Rotterdam as the main hubs.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, China and Europe, complex network, spatial association, hub and spoke system

郭建科, 侯雅洁, 何瑶. “一带一路”背景下中欧港口航运网络的演化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(5): 716-726.

GUO Jianke, HOU Yajie, HE Yao. Characteristics of change of the China-Europe port shipping network under the Belt and Road Initiative[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 716-726.

图/表 8

表1

常用复杂网络评价指标公式及含义

指标	公式	数学含义	地理意义
度	$k i = ∑ a ij$	节点v_i的度k_i表示该节点连接的边数;式中,i与j指网络中港口节点,N指网络中所有的节点,a_ij指港口节点间的航线数量	反映港口节点在网络中联系的广度
单位权	$U i = S i k i$	节点v_i的点权S_i表示与它相连边的权重之和;单位权表示节点连接的平均权重,表示节点v_i的点权S_i与其节点度k_i的比值	反映港口节点在网络中联系的深度
平均路径长度	$L = 1 C N 2 ∑ d ij$	网络中2个节点v_i和v_j之间的距离d_ij为连接这2个节点的最短路径上的边数; $C N 2$ 是排列组合,表示在N个中选2个的所以组合个数;平均路径长度表示任意2个节点之间距离的平均值	反映网络整体的连通性
聚类系数	$C = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N C i$	节点v_i的k_i个邻居节点之间实际存在的边数E_i和总的可能的边数 $C k i 2$ 之比就是节点v_i的聚类系数C_i;网络的聚类系数C就是所有节点v_i的聚类系数C_i的平均值	反映港口节点与相邻港口联系的紧密性和网路整体节点间联系的紧密性
接近度中心性	$Cc v i = N - 1 ∑ j = 1, j ≠ i N d ij$	指节点v_i到其他所有节点最短距离之和的倒数与其他节点数的乘积;d_ij为节点i和节点j之间的最短路径长度	反映港口节点在网络的重要性和可达性

表1

表2

表3

图1

表4

图2

图3

图4

参考文献 26

[1]	Levinson M. The Box: How the shipping container made the world smaller and the world economy bigger [M]. Princeton, USA: Princeton University Press, 2006: 56-89.
[2]	王成金 . 全球集装箱航运的空间组织网络 [J]. 地理研究, 2008,27(3):636-648.
	[ Wang Chengjin . Spatial organization networks of world marine container transportation. Geographical Research, 2008,27(3):636-648. ]
[3]	韩增林, 安筱鹏, 王利 , 等. 中国国际集装箱运输网络的布局与优化 [J]. 地理学报, 2002,57(4):479-488.
	[ Han Zenglin, An Xiaopeng, Wang Li , et al. Distribution and optimization of container transportation network in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002,57(4):479-488. ]
[4]	曹有挥 . 集装箱港口体系的演化模式研究: 长江下游集装箱港口体系的实证 [J]. 地理科学, 1999,19(6):485-490.
	[ Cao Youhui . On the evolution model of the container port system: A case study of the lower Changjiang River container port system. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1999,19(6):485-490. ]
[5]	Notteboom T E . Concentration and load centre development in the European container port system [J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 1997,5(2):99-115.
[6]	曹有挥, 李海建, 陈雯 . 中国集装箱港口体系的空间结构与竞争格局 [J]. 地理学报, 2004,59(6):1020-1027.
	[ Cao Youhui, Li Haijian, Chen Wen . The spatial structure and the competition pattern of the container port system of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004,59(6):1020-1027. ]
[7]	潘坤友, 曹有挥, 魏鸿雁 . 长三角地区集装箱航运网络演化与效应 [J]. 经济地理, 2018,38(2):90-97.
	[ Pan Kunyou, Cao Youhui, Wei Hongyan . Study on evolution and effect of container shipping network in Yangtze River Delta. Economic Geography, 2018,38(2):90-97. ]
[8]	郭建科, 陈园月, 于旭会 , 等. 1985年来环渤海地区港口体系位序-规模分布及作用机制 [J]. 地理学报, 2017,72(10):1812-1826.
	[ Guo Jianke, Chen Yuanyue, Yu Xuhui , et al. Rank-size distribution and mechanism of port system in the Bohai Rim during the past thirty years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(10):1812-1826. ]
[9]	Hayuth Y . Rationalization and concentration of the U.S. container port system [J]. The Professional Geographer, 1988,40(3):279-288.
[10]	Liu Z Y, Meng Q, Wang S A , et al. Global intermodal liner shipping network design [J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2014,61:28-39.
[11]	韩增林, 安筱鹏 . 东北集装箱运输网络的建设与优化探讨 [J]. 地理科学, 2001,21(4):308-314.
	[ Han Zenglin, An Xiaopeng . Research on the construction and optimization of container transportation network in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2001,21(4):308-314. ]
[12]	Fremont A . Global maritime networks the case of Maersk [J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2007,15:431-442.
[13]	Notteboom T E . Consolidation and contestability in the European container handling industry [J]. Maritime Policy and Management, 2002,29:257-269.
[14]	Rimmer P J . The Asia-Pacific rim's transport and telecommunications systems: Spatial structure and corporate control since the mid-1980s [J]. GeoJournal, 1999,48:43-65.
[15]	王成金 . 世界航运企业重组及其对航运网络结构的影响: 兼论对中国港口体系的影响 [J]. 世界地理研究, 2008,17(1):94-104, 118.
	[ Wang Chengjin . International reorganization of shipping liners and its effect on world network structure. World Regional Studies, 2008,17(1):94-104, 118. ]
[16]	王成金, 金凤君 . 中国海上集装箱运输的组织网络研究 [J]. 地理科学, 2006,26(4):392-401.
	[ Wang Chengjin, Jin Fengjun . Organization networks of Chinese marine container transportation. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2006,26(4):392-401. ]
[17]	Deng W B, Long G, Wei L , et al. Worldwide marine transportation network: Efficiency and container throughput [J]. Chinese Physics Letters, 2009,26(11):118-901.
[18]	Kaluza P, Kölzsch A, Gastner M T , et al. The complex network of global cargo ship movements [J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2010,7(48):1093-1103.
[19]	Ducruet C, Notteboom T . The worldwide maritime network of container shipping: Spatial structure and regional dynamics [J]. Global Networks, 2012,12(3):395-423.
[20]	Guo J K, Wang S B, Wang D D , et al. Spatial structural pattern and vulnerability of China-Japan-Korea shipping network [J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2017,27(5):697-708.
[21]	王列辉, 洪彦 . 直航背景下海峡两岸集装箱港口体系空间结构: 基于复杂网络的视角 [J]. 地理学报, 2016,71(4):605-620.
	[ Wang Liehui, Hong Yan . The spatial structure of container port system on both sides of the Taiwan straits under the background of direct navigation: From the perspective of complex network. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(4):605-620. ]
[22]	李振福, 史砚磊, 徐梦俏 , 等. 亚洲集装箱港口的全球班轮网络地位 [J]. 经济地理, 2016,36(3):91-98.
	[ Li Zhenfu, Shi Yanlei, Xu Meng , et al. Global liner network status of Asian container ports. Economic Geography, 2016,36(3):91-98. ]
[23]	陈芙英, 胡志华 . 海上丝绸之路东南亚航运网络空间格局研究 [J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2016,42(4):91-96, 104.
	[ Chen Fuying, Hu Zhihua . Study on the spatial pattern of shipping network in South-East Asia along the Maritime Silk Road. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2016,42(4):91-96, 104. ]
[24]	王成, 王茂军, 王艺 . 中国嵌入“21世纪海上丝绸之路”航运网络的关键节点识别 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2018,37(11):1485-1498.
	[ Wang Cheng, Wang Maojun, Wang Yi . Identification of Chinese key nodes in the shipping network of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Progress in Geography, 2018,37(11):1485-1498. ]
[25]	汪小帆, 李翔, 陈关荣 . 复杂网络理论及其应用 [M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006: 28-57.
	[ Wang Xiaofan, Li Xiang, Chen Guanrong. The theory and application of complex network. Beijing, China: Tsinghua University Press, 2006: 28-57. ]
[26]	孙玺菁, 司守奎 . 复杂网络算法与应用 [M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2016: 42-69.
	[ Sun Xijing, Si Shoukui. Complex network algorithms and applications. Beijing, China: National Defense Industry Press, 2016: 42-69. ]

指标	2005年		2015年
指标	L	C	L	C
同等规模随机网络	1.633	0.358	1.668	0.336
中欧航运网络	1.649	0.792	1.665	0.788
差值	0.016	0.434	0.003	0.452

指标变化			港口
可达性 (邻近中心性)	广度(度)	深度(单位权)		中国港口	欧洲港口	中转港口
↑	↑	↑	深圳、上海、宁波、青岛、天津、高雄		比雷埃夫斯、勒阿弗尔、福斯、巴塞罗那、泽布吕赫、南安普敦、热那亚、拉斯佩齐亚、康斯坦萨、不莱梅哈芬港、敖德萨、焦亚陶罗、奥尔胡斯、哥德堡	巴生港、塞得港、新加坡、吉达、苏伊士、贝鲁特
↑	↑	↓	厦门、大连、香港		安特卫普、马耳他、的里雅斯特	丹戎帕拉帕斯
↑	↓	↑	—		鹿特丹、汉堡、费利克斯托、瓦伦西亚	—
↓	↑	↓	—		科佩尔、伊斯坦布尔	—
↓	↓	↓	—		威尼斯、里耶卡、那不勒斯	科伦坡、海法