地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 567-576.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.009

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

乡镇尺度上的山东省人口老龄化空间格局演变与影响因素研究

李少星1,2(), 王先芝3, 纪小乐2,4, 张烨2   

  1. 1. 山东大学山东发展研究院,济南 250100
    2. 山东大学经济研究院,济南 250100
    3. 山东省建设发展研究院,济南 250001
    4. 山东省国土测绘院,济南 250102
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-28 修回日期:2019-01-09 出版日期:2019-04-28 发布日期:2019-04-28
  • 作者简介:

    第一作者简介:李少星(1983— ),男,河北宁晋人,博士,副教授,研究领域为城市地理、城市与区域规划。E-mail: lisx_198327@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41201163);国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAL04B01)

Spatial change and influencing factors of population aging in Shandong Province at the township scale

Shaoxing LI1,2(), Xianzhi WANG3, Xiaole JI2,4, Ye ZHANG2   

  1. 1. School of Shandong Development, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
    2. Center for Economic Research, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
    3. Shandong Institute of Construction and Development, Jinan 250001, China
    4. Shandong Institute of Land Surveying and Mapping, Jinan 250102, China
  • Received:2018-06-28 Revised:2019-01-09 Online:2019-04-28 Published:2019-04-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41201163;National Science and Technology Support Program, No. 2014BAL04B01

摘要:

基于第五次和第六次人口普查数据,研究了乡镇尺度上山东省人口老龄化的空间格局及其演变特征,并采用空间计量方法定量探讨了其影响因素。研究发现:① 山东省人口老龄化发展迅猛,但乡镇街道之间在老龄化水平、老年人口密度和增长速度等方面均存在非常显著的地域差异。② 按照不同的分析维度,山东省乡镇街道涵盖了丰富的人口老龄化地域类型,其中的2个类型形成了典型的空间分异格局。一类主要聚集在县级以上城市及其周边地域,总体上具有老年人口低占比、高密度、高绝对增长、低相对增长的特点;另一类是主要分布在胶东地区、黄河三角洲地区、沂蒙地区和鲁西地区等4个区域的一般乡镇,大体表现为高占比、低密度、低绝对增长、高相对增长特征。③ 空间滞后模型回归结果显示,老龄化动态演变过程的不确定性更强、影响因素更为复杂,基期老龄化基础对其影响效应不显著,经济增长速度有显著负向影响,但经济发展水平对老龄化静态格局的影响却不显著,使得乡镇尺度上老龄化空间格局的演变机制呈现出特殊性。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 空间格局, 乡镇尺度, 空间计量模型, 山东省

Abstract:

Based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses, this study examined the change of the spatial pattern of population aging of Shandong Province and its influencing factors by spatial statistical analysis and spatial econometric model at the township scale. It concluded that population aging is developing rapidly in the province, but the differences between the towns are very significant. Two types of territories with clear spatial agglomeration trends are recognized. One type is concentrated near cities and their surrounding areas, characterized by lower proportion, higher density, higher absolute growth rate, and lower relative growth rate of elderly population. The other type is towns located in the Jiaodong Peninsula area, the Yellow River Delta area, Yimeng Mountain area, and the West Shandong area, and mainly featured by higher proportion, lower density, lower absolute growth rate, and higher relative growth rate of elderly population. In contrast with the previous studies, we obtained several new findings on the driving forces of population aging in Shandong Province, reflecting the particular mechanism of change at the township scale. According to the regression results of the spatial econometric model, the population aging foundation does not have evident influence on the range of change, although it affects the static pattern in the next period, which means that the process of change is more complex and uncertain to predict than its spatial distribution. In addition, economic growth has a significantly negative effect on the spatial evolution of population aging, but the relationship between economic development level and the static aging level is unnoticeable.

Key words: population aging, spatial pattern, township scale, spatial econometric model, Shandong Province