地理科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 1277-1290.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.09.010
收稿日期:
2018-01-09
修回日期:
2018-06-02
出版日期:
2018-09-28
发布日期:
2018-09-28
作者简介:
作者简介:申犁帆(1987-),男,北京人,博士研究生,研究方向为城市轨道交通与空间规划、城市可持续发展,E-mail:
基金资助:
Lifan SHEN1(), Chun ZHANG2,*(
), He LI3, Ye WANG4
Received:
2018-01-09
Revised:
2018-06-02
Online:
2018-09-28
Published:
2018-09-28
Supported by:
摘要:
随着城市的扩张,人们的就业—居住空间跨度不断扩大。通勤方式的多样化和通勤效率的提高会对就业者的职住状况产生影响。以通勤时间作为通勤成本能从就业者的角度辨析个体的职住失衡状况。本文基于贝叶斯-tobit的统计分析方法,结合北京市7个街道和地区的问卷调查数据,分析了慢行交通、机动车、轨道交通、地面公交等4种通勤方式与职住失衡的相互关系。同时,引入就业可达性和用地混合度作为调节变量,考察其对不同通勤方式与职住失衡之间原有关系的影响。研究发现:①慢行交通的通勤方式与职住失衡程度存在负相关性;②机动车、轨道交通和地面公交的通勤方式与职住失衡程度存在正相关性;③就业可达性和用地混合度会弱化慢行交通、轨道交通、地面公交通勤方式与职住失衡程度的原有关系,即在低就业可达性和用地混合度条件下,慢行交通通勤者的职住失衡度更低,而轨道交通和地面公交通勤者的职住失衡度更高;④就业可达性和用地混合度的差异对机动车通勤与职住失衡之间的关系没有影响。上述结果表明:低就业可达性和用地混合度能够缓解慢行交通通勤者的职住失衡程度;但对于轨道交通和地面公交的通勤者来说,低就业可达性和用地混合度会加剧其职住失衡的程度。此外,机动车通勤者不易受外部客观因素的影响而改变出行方式。
申犁帆, 张纯, 李赫, 王烨. 大城市通勤方式与职住失衡的相互关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(9): 1277-1290.
Lifan SHEN, Chun ZHANG, He LI, Ye WANG. Interaction between commuting modes and job-housing imbalance in metropolis: An empirical study by Bayesian-tobit analysis in Beijing[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(9): 1277-1290.
表1
变量构成及其定义和表达方式
变量 | 定义和表达方式 | 数据来源 |
---|---|---|
过剩通勤 | 表示职住失衡的程度。用平均实际通勤时间(min)和理论最小通勤时间(min)之差与平均实际通勤时间(min)的比值表示 | 调查问卷 |
慢行交通 | 是否主要使用慢行交通的通勤方式,包括步行和自行车 | 调查问卷 |
机动车 | 是否主要使用机动车的通勤方式,包括私家车、出租车、公车、摩托车 | 调查问卷 |
轨道交通 | 是否主要使用轨道交通的通勤方式,包括地铁和轻轨 | 调查问卷 |
地面公交 | 是否主要使用公交车的通勤方式,包括公交(电)车、校车、班车 | 调查问卷 |
就业可达性 | 街道的就业可达性。用加权后的街道就业岗位密度(个/ km2)表示,据式(6)计算得出 | 调查问卷,第二次全国经济普查,第六次全国人口普查 |
用地混合度 | 街道的用地混合度。用下文式(7)计算得出 | 谷歌地图,实地调查 |
年龄 | 具体值(岁) | 调查问卷 |
性别 | 男/女 | 调查问卷 |
户口状况 | 有/无本地户口 | 调查问卷 |
教育状况 | 研究生及以上/本科或大专/高中或中专/初中/小学/小学以下 | 调查问卷 |
家庭规模 | 家庭人口数(人) | 调查问卷 |
家庭收入 | <2000元;2001~5000元;5001~10000元;10001~20000元;>20000 | 调查问卷 |
住房状况 | 自有房/租住房 | 调查问卷 |
人口密度 | 街道的人口密度,用街道常住人口数(人)与街道面积(km2)的比值表示 | 第六次全国人口普查 |
公服设施密度 | 街道的商业和公共设施密度,用街道内商业和公共设施(综合商场、医院、卫生服务站、中小学校)数(个)与街道面积(km2)的比值表示 | 高德地图 |
可达性 | 轨道站点的可达性,用受访者从居住地到最近轨道站点的步行时间(min)表示 | 调查问卷 |
表3
不同通勤方式与职住失衡度的关系
变量 | 相关系数(标准误差) | 95%的置信区间 | |
---|---|---|---|
慢行交通 | -14.43 (1.71) | -17.77 | -11.06 |
机动车 | 7.54 (1.74) | 4.15 | 10.96 |
轨道交通 | 10.30 (1.61) | 7.15 | 13.48 |
地面公交 | 6.67 (1.23) | 4.28 | 9.10 |
年龄 | 0.11 (0.08) | -0.03 | 0.26 |
性别 | 1.82 (1.12) | -0.37 | 4.01 |
户口状况 | 0.94 (1.18) | -1.38 | 3.24 |
教育状况 | -0.29 (0.59) | -1.46 | 0.87 |
家庭规模 | -0.44 (0.45) | -1.33 | 0.44 |
收入状况 | 1.48 (0.61) | -0.29 | 2.69 |
住房状况 | 0.07 (1.38) | -2.64 | 2.75 |
可达性 | 0.33 (0.09) | 0.16 | 0.51 |
人口密度 | 0.00 (0.00) | -0.00 | 0.01 |
公服设施密度 | -0.83 (1.36) | -3.49 | 1.80 |
表4
高就业可达性时通勤方式对定性职住失衡度的影响
变量 | 相关系数(标准误差) | 95%的置信区间 | |
---|---|---|---|
慢行交通 | -7.14 (16.80) | -40.46 | 25.81 |
机动车 | 0.03 (10.94) | -21.29 | 21.61 |
轨道交通 | 7.68 (6.78) | -5.60 | 21.05 |
地面公交 | -0.28 (11.73) | -23.32 | 22.82 |
年龄 | 0.14 (0.09) | -0.04 | 0.32 |
性别 | 1.47 (1.35) | -1.19 | 4.12 |
户口状况 | -0.63 (1.43) | -3.40 | 2.18 |
教育状况 | -1.16 (0.71) | -2.56 | 0.23 |
家庭规模 | -0.75 (0.55) | -1.84 | 0.33 |
收入状况 | 2.89 (0.73) | 1.45 | 4.31 |
住房状况 | 1.03 (1.68) | -2.26 | 4.33 |
可达性 | 0.25 (0.11) | 0.04 | 0.47 |
人口密度 | 0.00 (0.00) | -0.00 | 0.00 |
公服设施密度 | -2.89 (1.66) | -6.12 | 0.34 |
表5
低就业可达性时通勤方式对定性职住失衡度的影响
变量 | 相关系数(标准误差) | 95%的置信区间 | |
---|---|---|---|
慢行交通 | -16.46 (1.64) | -19.65 | -13.26 |
机动车 | 1.72 (1.32) | -0.86 | 4.30 |
轨道交通 | 4.90 (1.30) | 5.19 | 10.30 |
地面公交 | 7.74 (1.23) | 2.50 | 7.30 |
年龄 | 0.08 (0.07) | -0.06 | 0.23 |
性别 | 2.12 (1.11) | -0.06 | 4.29 |
户口状况 | 1.47 (1.19) | -0.82 | 3.82 |
教育状况 | -0.18 (0.60) | -1.35 | 0.99 |
家庭规模 | -0.49 (0.45) | -1.38 | 0.40 |
收入状况 | 1.89 (0.62) | 0.70 | 3.09 |
住房状况 | 0.37 (1.39) | -2.33 | 3.11 |
可达性 | 0.35 (0.09) | 0.17 | 0.53 |
人口密度 | 0.00 (0.00) | -0.00 | 0.00 |
公服设施密度 | 0.21 (1.40) | -2.54 | 3.00 |
表6
高用地混合度时通勤方式对职住失衡度的影响
变量 | 相关系数(标准误差) | 95%的置信区间 | |
---|---|---|---|
截距 | 76.05 (5.22) | 65.82 | 86.19 |
慢行交通 | -1.18 (17.81) | -36.24 | 33.40 |
机动车 | 6.07 (17.73) | -28.77 | 41.27 |
轨道交通 | -0.18 (9.64) | -19.15 | 18.88 |
地面公交 | -0.29 (18.78) | -37.05 | 36.38 |
年龄 | 0.14 (0.09) | -0.04 | 0.31 |
性别 | 1.35 (1.35) | -1.31 | 4.00 |
户口状况 | -0.42 (1.43) | -3.24 | 2.38 |
教育状况 | -1.16 (0.71) | -2.56 | 0.23 |
家庭规模 | -0.75 (0.55) | -1.84 | 0.33 |
收入状况 | 2.98 (0.73) | 1.53 | 4.43 |
住房状况 | 1.08 (1.68) | -2.72 | 4.41 |
可达性 | 0.25 (0.11) | 0.03 | 0.46 |
人口密度 | 0.00 (0.00) | -0.00 | 0.00 |
公服设施密度 | -3.23 (1.69) | -6.53 | 0.10 |
表7
低用地混合度时通勤方式对职住失衡度的影响
变量 | 相关系数(标准误差) | 95%的置信区间 | |
---|---|---|---|
截距 | 66.76 (4.77) | 57.45 | 76.04 |
慢行交通 | -16.05 (1.64) | -19.26 | -12.82 |
机动车 | 2.05 (1.32) | -50.55 | 4.64 |
轨道交通 | 8.11 (1.29) | 5.56 | 10.60 |
地面公交 | 5.09 (1.21) | 2.73 | 7.47 |
年龄 | 0.09 (0.07) | -0.08 | 0.23 |
性别 | 2.21 (1.12) | 0.02 | 4.40 |
户口状况 | 1.28 (1.17) | -1.03 | 3.57 |
教育状况 | -0.14 (0.60) | -1.32 | 1.02 |
家庭规模 | -0.51 (0.46) | -1.40 | 0.39 |
收入状况 | 1.83 (0.61) | 0.63 | 3.03 |
住房状况 | 0.33 (1.38) | -2.37 | 3.02 |
可达性 | 0.36 (0.09) | 0.18 | 0.54 |
人口密度 | -0.00 (0.00) | -0.00 | 0.00 |
公服设施密度 | 0.28 (1.39) | -2.46 | 3.03 |
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