地理科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 986-994.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.007
出版日期:
2017-08-31
发布日期:
2017-08-28
作者简介:
作者简介:徐媛媛(1991-),女,河南濮阳人,研究方向为产业经济与区域发展,E-mail:
基金资助:
Online:
2017-08-31
Published:
2017-08-28
Supported by:
摘要:
2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,不同区域在本轮危机中表现出不同程度的适应能力,即各地区域经济弹性大小不一。但学术界对到底什么因素影响区域经济弹性没有定论。本文以浙江省和江苏省为案例,采用统计年鉴、国家知识产权局和课题组调研数据,通过建立二元logistic回归模型对区域经济弹性的影响因素进行定量分析与定性解释。研究发现:①创新水平越高、非相关多样性越强及中小企业占比越大的区域越容易最小化甚至消除危机带来的损失;②财政支出较大、外贸依存度较高的区域抵御经济风险的能力较弱,更易受危机干扰;③相关多样性与区域经济弹性无显著关系。研究表明,财政支出对经济弹性与区域发展的影响不能一概而论,应充分考虑其支出结构特点;要正确认识中小企业占比对区域经济弹性的显著正向影响。为此,政府应鼓励创新,增加对科技研发的投入;注重产业多样化发展,促进产业转型升级;加大对中小企业的扶持,使中小企业自身的优势得以发挥;同时,优化财政支出结构,并健全鼓励消费机制以扩大内需。
徐媛媛, 王琛. 金融危机背景下区域经济弹性的影响因素——以浙江省和江苏省为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(8): 986-994.
Yuanyuan XU, Chen WANG. Influencing factors of regional economic resilience in the 2008 financial crisis:A case study of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(8): 986-994.
表2
二元logistic回归估计结果
变量 | B | S.E. | Wald | 自由度 | 显著性 | Exp(B) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人均生产总值 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.353 | 1 | 0.552 | 1.000 |
专利申请授权量 | 0.001** | 0.000 | 3.884 | 1 | 0.049 | 1.001 |
地方财政支出 | -0.012** | 0.006 | 4.805 | 1 | 0.028 | 0.988 |
进出口总额 | -0.003** | 0.001 | 3.951 | 1 | 0.047 | 0.997 |
中小型企业占比 | 0.499** | 0.210 | 5.611 | 1 | 0.018 | 1.646 |
非相关多样性UV | 0.635* | 0.343 | 3.417 | 1 | 0.065 | 1.886 |
相关多样性RV | -0.099 | 0.633 | 0.025 | 1 | 0.876 | 0.906 |
常量 | -50.804 | 21.018 | 5.843 | 1 | 0.016 | 0.000 |
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