地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 266-276.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.001

• 研究专题：资源环境承载力 • 上一篇    下一篇

全国资源环境承载能力预警(2016版)的基点和技术方法进展

樊杰1,2,3(), 周侃1,2, 王亚飞1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    3. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-01 出版日期:2017-03-20 发布日期:2017-03-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：樊杰(1961-),男,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事区域可持续发展问题研究,E-mail:fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn。

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41630644);中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)项目(KFJ-STS-ZDTP-021)

Basic points and progress in technical methods of early-warning of the national resource and environmental carrying capacity (V 2016)

Jie FAN1,2,3(), Kan ZHOU1,2, Yafei WANG1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-01-01 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41630644;Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KFJ-STS-ZDTP-021

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摘要：

本文探讨了资源环境承载能力预警机制的设计基点,阐释了资源环境承载能力、承载能力评价和预警的基本概念,创建了资源环境承载能力预警的理论模型,并制定了2016版全国资源环境承载能力预警的技术流程、评价体系、集成方法与类型划分等技术要点,为全国资源环境承载能力预警全面试行提供技术参考。研究表明：增长极限论是资源环境承载能力预警的理论基础;以县级行政区为评价单元的资源环境承载能力预警,分别开展陆域评价和海域评价,二者均包括基础评价和专项评价两部分,基础评价采用统一指标体系对所有县级行政区进行全覆盖评价,专项评价根据主体功能区规划选取特征指标对优化开发、重点开发和限制开发区域进行评价;采取“短板效应”原理确定资源环境超载、临界超载和不超载3种类型,结合资源环境耗损过程评价划分红色(极重警)、橙色(重警)、黄色(中警)、蓝色(轻警)和绿色(无警) 5个预警等级,通过陆海统筹校验确定资源环境承载能力“三类五级”评价方案。

关键词: 资源环境承载能力, 预警, 技术流程, 评价体系, 主体功能区

Abstract:

This article discusses the design basis of the early-warning system of resource and environmental carrying capacity, explains the basic concepts of resource and environmental carrying capacity and its evaluation and early-warning mechanism, and builds the theoretical model and develops key technical points of the early-warning of the national resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation (2016 version), including technical process, evaluation system, integration methods, and classification approaches, which can provide an important technical reference for carrying out the early-warning of national resource and environmental carrying capacity overloading. This research shows that "the limits to growth" is the theoretical basis of the early-warning of resource and environmental carrying capacity. Based on the county-level administrative regions, this work carries out evaluation of terrestrial and marine resource and environmental carrying capacity respectively, both include basic and specific evaluations. The basic evaluation adopts unified basic indicators to conduct an overall regional evaluation; and the specific evaluation is conducted for different major functional zones, including optimized development zones, priority development zones, and restricted development zones, with corresponding characteristic indicators. Then the worst performing one of all indicators is used to classify the evaluated units, which separates the evaluated regions into resource and environmental overloading, critical overloading, and non-overloading areas. Combining with the evaluation results of resource and environmental consumption, five early-warning levels—red (extremely serious warning), orange (serious warning), yellow (medium-level warning), blue (slight warning), and green (no warning) are divided based on the classification results. Finally, the three carrying capacity types and five early-warning levels of resource and environmental are verified through the terrestrial-marine coordinated test.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity, early-warning, technical process, evaluation system, major function oriented zone