基于居民健康的城市高温热浪灾害脆弱性评价——研究进展与框架

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全球气候变化和城市热岛效应增强,近年来城市高温热浪灾害在世界各地频繁发生,给城市居民健康和社会经济带来了极大的负面影响。目前,国内已有的高温热浪灾害研究大多关注热浪强度、发生频率、持续时间等灾害特征,以城市居民健康作为承灾体的城市高温热浪灾害脆弱性研究尚不多见,相关的评价框架和方法亟待梳理和完善。本文从高温热浪灾害脆弱性的研究主题、脆弱性框架和定量化方法三个方面系统梳理了高温热浪灾害脆弱性国内外研究进展;在广义脆弱性概念框架的基础上完善了基于“暴露—敏感—适应能力”的高温热浪灾害脆弱性评价概念框架,并梳理了相应的指标体系;强调通过自然环境、社会经济、居民感知等多角度的定性、定量数据综合表征城市居民高温热浪灾害脆弱性,以期为高温热浪灾害脆弱性评价提供理论与方法支持,并为规避高温热浪灾害风险、响应高温热浪紧急事件及适应气候变化等提供科学指引。

关键词: 城市高温热浪灾害, 脆弱性评价, 居民健康, 适应能力

Abstract:

With global climate change and urbanization, nature hazards such as extreme heat, rainstorm, water-logging, and fog and haze pollution have become much more frequent in urban areas during the past decades. As a part of the urban hazards, heat wave has been a leading cause of weather related human mortality in many countries and given rise to dramatic negative effects on the health of urban residents and the economy. Heat wave events are attracting widespread attention of the academic research community. In China, existing studies on heat waves mainly focused on the intensity, frequency, duration as well as the spatial patterns of the events and seldom explored the impacts of the heat waves on the health of vulnerable urban residents. Adverse health effects of heat waves can be avoided by identifying populations that are vulnerable to heat waves and providing targeted assistance, thus the improvement of the assessment framework and methodology for health related urban heat wave vulnerability is of great significance. This article reviews the development in research themes, assessment framework, and quantitative methods about health related urban heat wave vulnerability in China and abroad during the past decades and presents a new research framework. Most of the conventional vulnerability assessments contain the elements of exposure and sensitivity. However, in this research, adaptive capacity at both individual and community scales has been taken into account in addition to exposure and sensitivity. An index system combining environmental indicators (such as air temperature, land surface temperature, and land use), demographic indicators (such as age, gender, and education level), and socioeconomic indicators (such as household income, employment, and neighborhood stability) has been built for quantitative vulnerability assessment. Meanwhile, qualitative data from questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews are recommended to be added to the framework for first hand information of the residents and local governments. This research provides theoretical support for health related heat wave vulnerability assessment, as well as help focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazards mitigation, and climate change adaptation strategies.

Key words: urban heat wave hazard, vulnerability assessment, resident health, adaptive capacity

谢盼, 王仰麟, 彭建, 刘焱序. 基于居民健康的城市高温热浪灾害脆弱性评价——研究进展与框架[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(2): 165-.

Pan XIE, Yanglin WANG, Jian PENG, Yanxu LIU. Health related urban heat wave vulnerability assessment:research progress and framework[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(2): 165-.

图/表 2

图1

表1

基于居民健康的城市高温热浪灾害脆弱性评价指标体系

综合指标	要素指标	要素指标描述	增加（+）或减缓（-）脆弱性	文献出处
暴露	气温	温度越高,健康威胁越大	温度高（+）	Reid et al, 2012
	地表温度	反映城市内部温度差异	温度高（+）	Johnson et al, 2012
	地表覆盖	与地表温度相关性强,反映城市内部温度差异	不透水比例高（+）; 植被覆盖度高（-）	Johnson et al, 2012; Uejio et al, 2011
	人体舒适度	人在不同环境下舒适程度	舒适度高（-）	Harlan et al, 2006
敏感性	年龄	老人和小孩相对于青壮年来说身体抵抗能力差;自我保护和灾害应对能力弱	老人（+）;小孩（+）	Cutter et al, 2008
	性别	女性对于男性来说身体抵抗能力弱,女性经济实力一般不如男性,灾后恢复难	女性（+）	Semanza et al, 1996; Cutter et al, 2003; Yip et al, 2008
	种族/民族	文化障碍及语言障碍使得灾害发生时少数民族疏散和救助所受阻碍较大	少数民族（+）	Reid et al, 2009; Uejio et al, 2011; Johnson et al, 2012
	疾病状况	患病的人身体抵抗能力弱	患病（+）	Reid et al, 2009
	受教育水平	受教育水平高者灾害认知能力强;灾害适应和灾后恢复的经济实力强	受教育水平高（-）	Reid et al, 2009; Uejio et al, 2011; Johnson et al, 2012
	收入	收入低者无力购买降温设施,灾后恢复也难展开	收入低（+）	Cutter et al, 2008; Reid et al, 2009
	职业	从事农林牧渔职业者,可支配收入较少	农林牧渔职业（+）	Cutter et al, 2008
	家庭结构	人口较多的家庭或单亲家庭往往需要在工作和照顾家庭之间权衡,经济压力较大	家庭规模大（+）; 单亲家庭（+）	Cutter et al, 2008; Johnson et al, 2012
	独居	独居者与周围联系较少,灾害发生时可能得不到有效救助	独居（+）	Reid et al, 2009
适应能力	高温感知	对高温的全面认知和主动避灾行为有助于减缓灾害威胁	高温感知强（-）	Wilhelmi et al, 2010
	降温设备	空调等降温设备能在一定程度避免高温伤害	有空调（-）	Semanza et al, 1996; Klinenberg, 2003
	基础设施	绿地、湖泊等降温基础设施能减少高温热浪灾害发生可能性	绿地、湖泊比例大（-）	Johnson et al, 2012
	医疗资源	医疗资源（如医院、医生人数等）越多,灾后救助越有利	医疗资源丰富（-）	Cutter et al, 2003
	宣传教育	提高居民高温认知	宣传教育广泛（-）	Janssen, 2006; Wilhelmi et al, 2010

表1

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