FANG Jiayi, SHI Peijun.
A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change[J].
Progress In Geography,
A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change
FANG Jiayi1,2,3,, SHI Peijun2,3,4,5,*,
1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
2. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;
4. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
5. School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China
National Key Research and Development Program of China, No. 2016YFA0602404 and 2017YFE0100700; Shanghai Sailing Program, No. 19YF1413700; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No. 2019M651429;
The sea level rise under global climate change and coastal floods caused by extreme sea levels due to the high tide levels and storm surges have huge impacts on coastal society, economy, and natural environment. It has drawn great attention from global scientific researchers. This study examines the definitions and elements of coastal flooding in the general and narrow senses, and mainly focuses on the components of coastal flooding in the narrow sense. Based on the natural disaster system theory, the review systematically summarizes the progress of coastal flood research in China, then discusses existing problems in present studies and future research directions with regard to this issue. It is proposed that future studies need to strengthen research on adapting to climate change in coastal areas, including studies on the risk of multi-hazards and uncertainties of hazard impacts under climate change, risk assessment of key exposure (critical infrastructure) in coastal hotspots, and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures in coastal areas. Efforts to improve the resilience of coastal areas under climate change should be given more attention. The research community also should establish the mechanism of data sharing among disciplines to meet the needs of future risk assessments, so that coastal issues can be more comprehensively, systematically, and dynamically studied.
全球变暖背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响。1975—2016年间,全球80%因洪水死亡人数在距离沿海100 km的地区内(Hu et al, 2018)。2005年美国卡特里娜飓风-风暴潮灾害链使美国新奥尔良市防洪堤决口,经济损失达960多亿美元(Townsend, 2006)。2008年纳尔吉斯热带风暴横扫缅甸三角洲地区,导致13.8万人失踪死亡(Shibayama, 2015)。此外,菲律宾的台风海燕(2013年)、美国纽约的桑迪飓风(2012年)和美国得克萨斯州的哈维飓风(2017年)等都造成巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。中国沿海地区是极端天气和气候事件易发和频发的区域,也是重要的人口与经济聚集地。随着快速城镇化,沿海人口急剧膨胀,高强度的人类活动、城市化和土地开垦使得中国沿海土地利用覆盖变化巨大(Liu et al, 2015)。1989—2014年间中国因风暴潮引发的海岸洪水灾害造成约706亿美元损失,失踪死亡约4354人(Fang et al, 2017)。在“一带一路”倡议下,沿海地区继续快速发展,预期未来中国沿海暴露将会持续增加,未来沿海地区人口和经济灾害风险仍然趋高。
日益频发的沿海地区极端灾害事件已经引起了各国政府组织和学术界的高度重视。“未来地球计划”中确立了海岸带海陆相互作用核心研究项目(Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, LOICZ),现已发展为未来地球海岸国际计划(Future Earth-Coast, FEC),旨在全球变化背景下开发和集成多学科(自然科学+经济+社会)的分析方法,促进海岸带地区的可持续发展和提高对气候变化的适应性。欧盟也就该主题开展了多个大型科研项目(表1)。中国关于海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究也实施了一系列重大项目。中国科技部“十三五”重大科技专项提出,要求“评估海岸带和沿海地区变化综合风险,生成未来50~100 a全球变化情景下,空间分辨率优于1 km的中国海岸带及沿海地区的致灾因子分布图、承灾体脆弱性分布图及综合风险图”。减轻沿海地区自然灾害风险,已成为中国乃至国际社会面临的重大挑战之一。
Non-exhaustive list of EU funded research projects about coastal flood under climate change
应对气候变化及海平面上升全球沿海地区动态交互脆弱性评价(Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise)
海平面变化常被划分为因海洋水体总体质量变化和比容效应导致的绝对海平面变化和相对某一基准面(如大地基准或历史平均海平面)的相对海平面变化(陈美香等, 2013)。预测未来海平面变化趋势的常用方法分2类：一是利用奇异谱分析、灰色模型、经验模态法、自回归模型、小波分析等统计模型方法对历史观测数据进行分析,找出其规律进行外推预测(段晓峰等, 2014);二是使用全球耦合模式对未来不同温室气体排放情景下,对海平面变化进行模拟分析(左军成等, 2015)。利用统计模型的外推来预测未来变化,受数据序列长度和质量的影响较大,且假设未来海平面变化系统处于稳定状态,其变化规律保持不变,因此不能反映因气候变化导致的海洋系统变化的实际情况。相比而言,基于大型数值模式的全球海平面变化研究是当前研究的主流,也是IPCC系列报告采用的主要方法(Church et al, 2013; Jevrejeva et al, 2014; Kopp et al, 2014)。在IPCC AR5报告中,基于CMIP5全球气候模式对未来多种排放情景进行了模拟(温家洪等, 2018)。当前耦合数值模型存在对全球气候变化过程模拟刻画得不够完善、模型中不确定因素较多且模式的精度不够高等问题,全球大量的学者在试图改进模型模拟的物理机制,提高海平面上升数据产品的分辨率,使得模拟过程更合理,数据产品质量和精度更高。
承灾体脆弱性指社会经济系统和生态系统遭受到致灾因子打击的可能性大小,最常见的是物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性(UNISDR, 2009)。承灾体物理脆弱性侧重于致灾因子物理特性和承灾体的响应。物理脆弱性分析采用定量分析的手段,基于灾情数据、现场调研数据、保险数据、模型模拟等手段,获取损失与致灾因子之间的关系,给出定量风险评估结果(周瑶等, 2012)。通过构建淹没水深与沿岸承灾体(人口、房屋、海堤等)损失之间的函数关系,可以构造脆弱性损失矩阵或建立脆弱性曲线来确定不同致灾强度作用下承灾体的损失率(石先武等, 2016)。国外对洪水灾害脆弱性曲线开展了大量的研究,如美国、英国和荷兰已针对不同建筑物类型建立损失曲线(FEMA, 2015; Jonkman et al, 2008)。国内在上海等部分地区也开展了较为详细的研究(尹占娥等, 2012)。因物理脆弱性研究对历史灾情数据要求较高,需要大量的实地调研,而当前灾情数据公开较少或质量不高,资料获取困难,水深和损失之间的脆弱性曲线研究十分有限,难以构建出普适、实用的物理脆弱性曲线,使得在目前研究中较多依赖于国际的物理脆弱性曲线。社会脆弱性可以理解为社会系统遭遇致灾事件冲击的敏感性,以及应对灾害事件的适应能力(Cutter et al, 2008)。评价方法通常采用指标体系法,通过建立指标评价体系,用专家打分法、因子分析法等手段给因子赋予权重,对社会脆弱性等级进行划分。利用这些方法,就中国沿海地区不同尺度和不同研究区的社会脆弱性评价已有一定进展,如对沿海市级(谭丽荣, 2012; Su et al, 2015)和沿海县级为单元(方佳毅等, 2015)开展了社会脆弱性评价。但评价指标选取和建立,权重赋予方法各不相同,对结果影响较大,主观性较大。此外,指标体系法得到的是无单位的标量或相对值,可以用于识别高脆弱性区域,或脆弱性变化趋势,但它与损失之间的定量关系还不清晰,因此较难应用于定量风险评估中。
基于水动力演化的数值模型,如ADCIRC、DELFD3D等大型风暴潮数值模型,能够较好地模拟风暴潮增水和漫滩等过程,但应用于大尺度海岸洪水灾害风险评估中却较难实现,主要原因是：① 模型所需数据庞大复杂;② 求解过程复杂耗时;③ 对致灾因子强度有较好的模拟,但对风险评估中承灾体脆弱性等其他因素考虑不足。随着地形数据精度的提高,例如5 m及5 m以下的LiDAR高程数据,使得基于GIS栅格数据二维洪水模型的使用更为广泛,例如Lisflood(Bates et al, 2000)、JFLOW(Bradbrook, 2006)和Floodmap(Yu et al, 2006a; 2006b)等。该类二维洪水模型简化了物理过程,对求解效率有很大的提高,对小尺度研究有很好的表现(Yin et al, 2016)。为了提高极值水位模拟,简化求解过程,提高效率,一些学者采用其他研究团队开发的相关风暴潮产品,一般是基于大型风暴潮数值模式且针对某些特定区域的产品,如多种重现期下的极值水位高度,作为陆地上漫滩过程的输入,再使用基于GIS栅格数据的二维洪水模型作为洪水过程的演进(例如Yin et al, 2017)。但该方法目前也较难应用于大尺度海岸洪水风险评估中,主要由于对基础数据精度要求极高,而且就大尺度而言,基础数据量庞大也较难获得。
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With projected changes in climate, population and socioeconomic activity located in flood-prone areas, the global assessment of flood risk is essential to inform climate change policy and disaster risk management. Whilst global flood risk models exist for this purpose, the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on the current standard of protection to floods, with studies either neglecting this aspect or resorting to crude assumptions. Here we present a first global database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which comprises information in the form of the flood return period associated with protection measures, at different spatial scales. FLOPROS comprises three layers of information, and combines them into one consistent database. The design layer contains empirical information about the actual standard of existing protection already in place; the policy layer contains information on protection standards from policy regulations; and the model layer uses a validated modelling approach to calculate protection standards. The policy layer and the model layer can be considered adequate proxies for actual protection standards included in the design layer, and serve to increase the spatial coverage of the database. Based on this first version of FLOPROS, we suggest a number of strategies to further extend and increase the resolution of the database. Moreover, as the database is intended to be continually updated, while flood protection standards are changing with new interventions, FLOPROS requires input from the flood risk community. We therefore invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information to this evolving database by corresponding to the authors.
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61A regional database of multiple coastal and marine disaster impacts was built for China.61Substantial progress in coastal and marine disasters prevention and migration.61Regional variation exits in spatial patterns of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.61Growing risk from climate change and increasing human-induced pressures.
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Impacts of floods on human society have been drawing increasing human concerns in recent years. In this study, flood observations from EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and DFO (Dartmouth Flood Observatory) datasets were analyzed to investigate frequency and intensity of floods, and flood-induced mortality, flood-affected population as well during 1975 2016 across the globe. Results indicated that: (1) occurrence rate of floods, flood-induced mortality and flood-affected population were generally increasing globally. However, flood-induced mortality and flood-affected people per flood event were in slight decrease, indicating that flood-induced mortality and flood-affected people due to increased floods exceeded those by individual flood event; (2) annual variation of mortality per flood event is highly related to floods with higher intensity. Specifically, the flood frequency and flood-induced mortality are the largest in Asia, specifically in China, India, Indonesia and Philippine; while significantly increased flood-affected population and mean annual mortality was detected in China, USA and Australia; (3) tropical cyclones (TC) are closely related to flood-induced mortality in parts of the countries along the western coast of the oceans. The frequency of channel floods in these regions is the largest and large proportion of flood-induced deaths and the highest flood-induced mortality can be attributed to TC-induced flash floods; (4) Population density and GDP per unit area are in significantly positive correlation with the number of flood-related victims per unit area, number of deaths and economic losses with exception of low-income countries. However, the flood-affected population and flood-induced mortality increase with decrease of per capita GDP; while the per capita economic loss increases with the increase of per capita GDP, indicating that the higher the population density and GDP per unit for a region, the higher sensitivity of this area to flood hazards.
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JevrejevaS, GrinstedA, Moore JC.2014. Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100[J]. , 9, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008.
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century. (letter)
JongmanB, Ward PJ, Aerts J C J H.2012. Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes[J]. , 22(4): 823-835.
Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970 2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.
Jonkman SN, Vrijling JK.2008. Loss of life due to floods[J]. , 1(1): 43-56.
This article gives an overview of the research on loss of life due to floods. The limited information regarding this topic is presented and evaluated. Analysis of global data for different flood types shows that the magnitude of mortality is related to the severity of the flood effects and the possibilities for warning and evacuation. Information from historical flood events gives a more detailed insight into the factors that determine mortality for an event, such as flood characteristics and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation. At the individual level, the occurrence of fatalities will be influenced by behaviour and individual vulnerability factors. Existing methods for the estimation of loss of life that have been developed for different types of floods in different regions are briefly discussed. A new method is presented for the estimation of loss of life due to floods of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. It can be used to analyse the consequences and risks of flooding and thereby provide a basis for risk evaluation and decision-making. The results of this research can contribute to the development of strategies to prevent and mitigate the loss of life due to floods.
KangL, MaL, LiuY.2016. Evaluation of farmland losses from sea level rise and storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change[J]. , 26(4): 439-456.
The Pearl River Delta on China's coast is a region that is seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges induced by global climate change, which causes flooding of large areas of farmland and huge agricultural losses. Based on relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surges was established. In this model, the area of submerged farmland, area of crops, and per unit yield of every type of crop were considered, but the impact of wind, flooding time, changes in land use and plant structure were not considered for long-term prediction. Taking the Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong as the study area, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution and loss of farmlands for different scenarios in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, using a digital elevation model, land-use data, local crop structure, rotation patterns, and yield loss ratios for different submerged heights obtained from field survey and questionnaires. The results show that the proportion of submerged farmlands and losses of agricultural production in the Pearl River Delta region will increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan, and Dongguan show obvious increases in submerged farmlands, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai show slow increases. In agricultural losses, vegetables would sustain the largest loss of production, followed by rice and peanuts. The greatest loss of rice crops would occur in Jiangmen, and the loss of vegetable crops would be high in Shanwei and Jiangmen. Although losses of peanut crops are generally lower, Jiangmen, Guangzhou, and Shanwei would experience relatively high losses. Finally, some measures to defend against storm surges are suggested, such as building sea walls and gates in Jiangmen, Huizhou, and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to reduce destruction from storm surges, and strengthening disaster warning systems.
Kebede AS, Nicholls RJ.2012. Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: Population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania[J]. , 12(1): 81-94.
The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US$35 million (2005) to US$10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.
Klein R JT, Nicholls RJ.1999. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change[J]. , 28(2): 182-187.
The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides an elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This paper presents the concepts and ideas that underpin the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP Handbook. Particular emphasis is given to the conceptual framework, which is centered around the concept of vulnerability. Further, the IPCC Common Methodology for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise is evaluated and compared with the Technical Guidelines. One notable difference between the 2 approaches concerns the use of scenarios. In the Common Methodology scenarios are prescribed, while the Technical Guidelines allow users maximum freedom in selecting and developing scenarios. Finally, the paper discusses 3 levels of increasingly complex assessment in coastal zones. As more experience is acquired, coastal databases improve and better analytical tools and techniques are developed, more comprehensive and integrated assessments will become feasible.
Kopp RE, Horton RM, Little CM, et al.2014. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites[J]. , 2(8): 383-406.
Abstract Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.265m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.965m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.865m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.
LambR, KeefC, TawnJ, et al.2010. A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts[J]. , 3(4): 323-336.
To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.
Lemmen DS, Warren FJ, James TS, et al.2016. Canada's marine coasts in a changing climate [R].
LinN, EmanuelK, OppenheimerM, et al.2012. Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change[J]. , 2(6): 462-467.
Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 165m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–2065yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–24065yr by the end of the century.
Linham MM, Nicholls RJ.2012. Adaptation technologies for coastal erosion and flooding: A review[J]. , 165(3): 95-112.
LiuJ, WenJ, HuangY, et al.2015. Human settlement and regional development in the context of climate change: A spatial analysis of low elevation coastal zones in China[J]. , 20(4): 527-546.
Low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) in China is densely populated and economically developed, which is exposed to increasing risks of hazards related to climate change and sea level rise. To mitigate risks and achieve sustainable development, we need to better understand LECZ. As the first step, in this paper we define the extent of the LECZ in China, and analyze the spatial distribution of LECZ and its population, using a geographic information system software (ArcGIS) to combine elevation models and population data sets. Our findings show that, overall, this zone covers 2.002% of China’s land area but contains 12.302% of the total population, which is the largest population living in LECZ in the world. There are large regional variations in the distribution of both LECZ and LECZ population, with half of the LECZ within 3002km from the coastline, and Jiangsu Province having the largest LECZ area and population. The LECZ is also concentrated in three major economic zones in China, which accounts for 5402% of LECZ and three quarters of all LECZ population in China. The impact of future climate change on China’s LECZ is exacerbated by rapid economic and population growth, urbanization and environmental degradation. Coordinating development in coastal and inland China, enhancing adaptive capacity and implementing integrated risk management for LECZ are needed to reduce the risks related to climate change and to achieve sustainable development.
MarcosM, Tsimplis MN, Shaw A GP.2009. Sea level extremes in southern Europe[J]. , 114, doi: 10.1029/2008JC004912.
 Knowledge of sea level extremes is important for coastal planning purposes. Temporal changes in the extremes may indicate changes in the forcing parameters, most probably the storm surges. Sea level extremes and their spatial and temporal variability in southern Europe are explored on the basis of 73 tide gauge records from 1940. This study uses all data available to infer risks at the coast caused by extreme sea levels. Extreme values of 250 cm are observed at the Atlantic coasts with smaller values in the Mediterranean where, with the exception of the Strait of Gibraltar and the Adriatic Sea, the extreme values are less than 60 cm. At the Adriatic Sea values of up to 200 cm are found. When the tidal contribution is removed the differences between the various areas reduce. The spatial distribution of the extremes of the tidal residuals is well represented by the hindcast of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model forced by the atmospheric pressure and the wind, although the model underestimates the extremes. Higher return levels (200 300 cm for the 50-year return level) are observed in the Atlantic stations due to the larger tides. In the Mediterranean, higher values are found in the northern Adriatic (between 150 and 200 cm) while in the rest of the domain they vary between 20 and 60 cm. The nonlinear interaction between tides and surges is negligible in the Mediterranean, thus the joint tides-surges distribution can be applied. The interannual and decadal variability in time of extremes is caused by mean sea level changes.
Mawdsley RJ, Haigh ID.2016. Spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends in skew surges globally[J]. , 3. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2016.00029.
McleodE, PoulterB, HinkelJ, et al.2010. Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications[J]. , 53(9): 507-517.
Conservation managers and policy makers need tools to identify coastal habitats and human communities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal impact models can help determine the vulnerability of areas and populations to changes in sea level. Model outputs may be used to guide decisions about the location and design of future protected areas and development, and to prioritize adaptation of existing protected area investments. This paper reviews state-of-the-art coastal impact models that determine sea-level rise vulnerability and provides guidance to help managers and policy makers determine the appropriateness of various models at local, regional, and global scales. There are a variety of models, each with strengths and weaknesses, that are suited for different management objectives. We find important trade-offs exist regarding the cost and capacity needed to run and interpret the models, the range of impacts they cover, and regarding the spatial scale that each operates which may overstate impacts at one end and underestimate impacts at the other. Understanding these differences is critical for managers and policy makers to make informed decisions about which model to use and how to interpret and apply the results.
MuisS, VerlaanM, Winsemius HC, et al.2016. A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels[J]. , 7. doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969.
Extreme sea levels, caused by storm surges and high tides, can have devastating societal impacts. To effectively protect our coasts, global information on coastal flooding is needed. Here we present the first global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels (GTSR data set) based on hydrodynamic modelling. GTSR covers the entire world's coastline and consists of time series of tides and surges, and estimates of extreme sea levels. Validation shows that there is good agreement between modelled and observed sea levels, and that the performance of GTSR is similar to that of many regional hydrodynamic models. Due to the limited resolution of the meteorological forcing, extremes are slightly underestimated. This particularly affects tropical cyclones, which requires further research. We foresee applications in assessing flood risk and impacts of climate change. As a first application of GTSR, we estimate that 1.3% of the global population is exposed to a 1 in 100-year flood. Protection of coastlines from devastating flooding associated with sea-level extremes is impeded by a lack of continuous records. Here, the authors apply a hydrodynamic modelling approach and present the first reanalysis of tides, surges and extreme sea levels for the entire world's coastline.
Nicholls RJ.2004. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios[J]. , 14(1): 69-86.
This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘worlds’. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B1 world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis. The flood model predicts that about 10 million people/year experienced coastal flooding due to surges in 1990. The incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise, but these changes are strongly controlled by assumptions on protection. Assuming that defence standards improve with growth in GDP/capita (lagged by 30 years), flood incidence increases in all four cases to the 2020s due to the growing exposed population. Then to the 2080s, the incidence of flooding declined significantly to 815 million people/ year in the B2 world, 812 million people/year in the B1 world and 811 million people/year in the A1FI world due to improving defence standards. In contrast, flood incidence continues to increase in the A2 world to the 2050s, and in the 2080s it is still 18–30 million people/year. This reflects the greater exposure and more limited adaptive capacity of the A2 world, compared to the other SRES storylines. Sea-level rise increases the flood impacts in all cases although significant impacts are not apparent until the 2080s when the additional people flooded are 7–10 million, 29–50 million, 2–3 million and 16–27 million people/year under the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 worlds, respectively. Hence, the A2 world also experiences the highest increase in the incidence of flooding. This is true under all the realistic scenario combinations that were considered demonstrating that socio-economic factors can greatly influence vulnerability to sea-level rise. The trends of the results also suggest that flood impacts due to sea-level rise could become much more severe through the 22nd century in all cases, especially in the A1FI world. Note that impacts using a climate model with a higher climate sensitivity would produce larger impacts than HadCM3. Coastal wetlands will be lost due to sea-level rise in all world futures with 5–20% losses by the 2080s in the A1FI world. However, these losses are relatively small compared to the potential for direct and indirect human destruction. Thus, the difference in environmental attitudes between the A1/A2 worlds and the B1/B2 worlds would seem to have more important implications for the future of coastal wetlands, than the magnitude of the sea-level rise scenarios during the 21st Century. These results should be seen as broad analysis of the sensitivity of the coastal system to the HadCM3 SRES global-mean sea-level rise scenarios. While these impact estimates are only for one climate model, for both impact factors they stress the importance of socio-economic conditions and other non-climate factors as a fundamental control on the magnitude of impacts both with and without sea-level rise. The A2 world experiences the largest impacts during the 21st century, while the B1 world has the smallest impacts, with the differences more reflecting socio-economic factors than climate change. This suggests that the role of development pathways in influencing the impacts of climate change needs to be given more attention.
Nicholls RJ, CazenaveA.2010. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones[J]. , 328: 1517-1520.
Abstract Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.
Nicholls RJ, Hanson SE, Lowe JA, et al.2014. Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts[J]. , 5(1): 129-150.
Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) factors. A major concern remains about the possibility of significant contributions from the major Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and this must be factored into the assessments, despite the uncertainty. This paper reviews the different mechanisms which contribute to sea-level change and considers a methodology for combining the available data to create relative (or local) sea-level rise scenarios suitable for impact and adaptation assessments across a range of sophistication of analysis. The methods that are developed are pragmatic and consider the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision making. This includes the requirements of strategic decision makers who rightly focus on low probability but high consequence changes and their consequences. Hence plausible high end sea-level rise scenarios beyond the conventional Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) range and which take into account evidence beyond that from the current generation of climate models are developed and their application discussed. Continued review and development of sea-level scenarios is recommended, starting with assimilating the insights of the forthcoming IPCC AR5 assessment. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:129 150. doi: 10.1002/wcc.253Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans F MJ, MarchandM.1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses[J]. , 9: S69-S87.
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an bility-to-pay parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the ommitment to sea-level rise irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits
Nicholls RJ, MimuraN.1998. Regional issues raised by sea-level rise and their policy implications[J]. , 11(1): 5-18.
Global sea levels are rising and this change is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. Any rise in sea level promotes land loss, increased flooding and salinisation. The impacts of and possible responses to sea-level rise vary at the local and regional scale due to variation in local and regional factors. Policy responses to the human-enhanced greenhouse effect need to address these different dimensions of climate change, including the regional scale. Based on global reviews and analyses of relative vulnerability, 4 contrasting regions are selected and examined in more detail using local and national assessments. These regions are (1) Europe, (2) West Africa, (3) South, South-East and East Asia and (4) the Pacific Small Islands. Some potential impacts of sea-level rise are found to have strong regional dimensions and regional cooperation to foster mitigation approaches (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, hence, the magnitude of climate change) and adaptive solutions to climate change impacts would be beneficial. For instance, in South, South-East and East Asia subsiding megacities and questions about long-term deltaic management are common and challenging issues. The debate on mitigation and stabilisation of greenhouse forcing also requires information on regional impacts of different emission pathways. These results will be provided by integrated models, calibrated against national assessments
Parris AS, BromirskiP, BurkettV, et al.2012. Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment [R].
PellingM, BlackburnS.2014. Megacities and the coast: Risk, resilience and transformation[M].
RahmstorfS.2017. Rising hazard of storm-surge flooding[J]. , 114(45): 11806-11808.
Eve Mosher's art project known as HighWaterLine, was aimed at increasing public awareness about climate change in the US. Eve Mosher undertook this project, as she knew that artists could create visceral and emotional connections that could make change possible in ways that data and reports were unable to accomplish. Her art project covered and included the neighborhoods of Chinatown, Coney... [Show full abstract]
Rowley RJ, Kostelnick JC, BraatenD, et al.2007. Risk of rising sea level to population and land area[J]. , 88(9): 105-107.
Low-elevation land areas and their populations are at risk globally from rising sea level. Global sea level has risen by about 2 millimeters per year over the past century. About half of this rise may be attributed to thermal expansion of the ocean and the melting of temperate-latitude glaciers [Dyurgerov and Meier, 1997]. The remainder of the rise is believed to come from a net loss of mass from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, although the exact contribution is unknown.
Sayers PB, HorrittM, Penning-RowsellE, et al.2017. Climate change risk assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK [R]. London, UK: Committee on
ShibayamaT.2015. Field surveys of recent storm surge disasters[J]. , 116: 179-186.
In these ten years since 2004, there were more than ten big disasters in coastal area including six storm surge events and five tsunami events. The author performed post disaster surveys on all these events as the team leaders of survey teams. Based on those experiences, the author describes lessons of these events. Tsunami is now generally well known to coastal residents. Evacuation plans gradually become common for tsunami disasters. Storm surges arise more frequently due to strong storms but coastal residents are not well protected and not informed how to evacuate in case of surge emergency. From the field surveys conducted, it appeared that the damage depend on the geographical and social conditions of each of the areas that were visited by the author. It is now clear that such issues play important roles in disaster mechanisms. Therefore disaster risk management should carefully include local topography and social conditions of each area during the formulation of disaster prevention plans. In order to establish a reliable disaster prevention system, appropriate protection structures should be constructed, and these should be accompanied by a clear and concise evacuation plan for residents of a given area.
SpencerT, SchuerchM, Nicholls RJ, et al.2016. Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA wetland change model[J]. , 139: 15-30.
61Database identifies estimated (in 2011) 756×103km2global coastal wetland stock.61With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, losses of 46–59% of global coastal wetlands61Under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100), global wetland losses may reach 78%.61Under low sea-level rise, micro-tidal wetlands more vulnerable to loss61Wetland loss likely to be exacerbated by non-climate related, anthropogenic impacts
SterrH.2008. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise for the coastal zone of Germany[J]. , 24(2): 380-393.
Germany's coast extends over 3700 km on both the North and Baltic Seas and is shared by five coastal states. Major seaport cities, Hamburg and Bremen, form two of these states, whereas rural areas and small and medium-size coastal towns comprise the other three coastal states. Along the coast large low-lying areas are already threatened by recurring storm flood events and erosion. Accelerated sea-level rise therefore exacerbates a high-risk situation. It is estimated that under a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise scenario the recurrence of devastating storm floods that presently have a probability of 1 in 100 will decrease to a 1 in 10 or even 1 in 1 probability. Vulnerability assessments have been carried out in Germany at three scales: (i) the national level, i.e., for all coastal areas lying below 5 m (Baltic Sea Coast) and 10 m (North Sea Coast), (ii) the regional level for the coastal state of Schleswig-Holstein, and (iii) the local level for selected communities within this state. When comparing findings from these analyses, the results show that the economic risks of flooding and erosion are highest when detailed studies covering the full range of infrastructure assets are used. However, the actual risk areas in detailed studies may be more confined when considering local topography and infrastructure such as road dams. Nationally, an accelerated sea-level rise of 1 m would put more than 300,000 people at risk in the coastal cities and communities, and economic values endangered by flooding and erosion would amount to more than 300 billion US$ (based on 1995 values). This is why German coastal states are following a strategy based on hard coastal protection measures against flooding, although authorities realize that maintaining and/or improving these defence structures might become rather costly in the long-term. Although additional investment in flood and erosion protection will be considerable (estimated at more than 500 million US$) this seems manageable for the national and regional economies. On the other hand, hard coastline defence and accelerated sea-level rise will increase "coastal squeeze" on the seaward side, endangering important coastal ecosystems such as tidal flats (Wadden Sea), saltmarshes, and dunes. Currently there is no strategy to remedy this increasing ecological vulnerability.
WahlT, Chambers DP.2015. Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records[J]. , 120(3): 1527-1544.
Abstract We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50–200 year return periods) ranging from 6510 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the “MSL offset method,” assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.
WahlT, Haigh ID, Nicholls RJ, et al.2017. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis[J]. , 8. doi: 10.1038/ncomms16075.
Abstract One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.
Ward PJ, JongmanB, Aerts J C J H, et al.2017. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas[J]. , 7(9): 642-646.
Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today's levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.
Willis HH, NarayananA, Fischbach JR, et al.2016. Current and future exposure of infrastructure in the United States to Natural Hazards[M].
Woodruff JD, Irish JL, Camargo SJ.2013. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise[J]. , 504: 44-52.
Abstract The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.
Woodworth PL, MenéndezM, Gehrels WR.2011. Evidence for century-timescale acceleration in mean sea levels and for recent changes in extreme sea levels[J]. , 32(4-5): 603-618.
Two of the most important topics in Sea Level Science are addressed in this paper. One is concerned with the evidence for the apparent acceleration in the rate of global sea level change between the...
YinJ, YinZ, XuS.2013. Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China's coastal area[J]. , 69(3): 1423-1434.
Typhoons, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in China's coastal area, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage throughout history. An indicator system which included two aspects of hazard and vulnerability with 14 indicators was built up for composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster. The analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the weight of each indicator, and the composite risk assessment model was then built up. The results indicated that there were no very high- or very low-risk areas in China's coastal area. Out of the 18,000-km-long China land coastline, 30.99 % was at low risk, mostly along the coastal hill-mountain zone, Hainan and Guangxi coast; the major part (62.71 %) of the coastal area was classified as at moderate risk. Although only 6.30 % of the total was at high risk, the affected area was mainly distributed in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the three main deltas with low topography, a highly developed economy, and a very dense population.
YinJ, YuD, LinN, et al.2017. Evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York City[J]. , 555: 648-658.
This paper describes a scenario-based approach for evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding on emergency responses. The analysis is applied to Lower Manhattan, New York City, considering FEMA 100- and 500-year flood scenarios and New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) high-end SLR projections for the 2050s and 2080s, using the current situation as the baseline scenario. Service areas for different response timeframes (3-, 5- and 8-minute) and various traffic conditions are simulated for three major emergency responders (i.e. New York Police Department (NYPD), Fire Department, New York (FDNY) and Emergency Medical Service (EMS)) under normal and flood scenarios. The modelling suggests that coastal flooding together with SLR could result in proportionate but non-linear impacts on emergency services at the city scale, and the performance of operational responses is largely determined by the positioning of emergency facilities and the functioning of traffic networks. Overall, emergency service accessibility to the city is primarily determined by traffic flow speed. However, the situation is expected to be further aggravated during coastal flooding, with is set to increase in frequency and magnitude due to SLR.
YinJ, YuD, YinZ, et al.2016. Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China[J]. , 537: 138-145.
Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity uration requency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.
YuD, Lane SN.2006a. Urban fluvial flood modelling using a two-dimensional diffusion-wave treatment, part 1: Mesh resolution effects[J]. , 20(7): 1541-1565.
High-resolution data obtained from airborne remote sensing is increasing opportunities for representation of small-scale structural elements (e.g. walls, buildings) in complex floodplain systems using two-dimensional (2D) models of flood inundation. At the same time, 2D inundation models have been developed and shown to provide good predictions of flood inundation extent, with respect to both full solution of the depth-averaged Navier-Stokes equations and simplified diffusion-wave models. However, these models have yet to be applied extensively to urban areas. This paper applies a 2D raster-based diffusion-wave model to determine patterns of fluvial flood inundation in urban areas using high- resolution topographic data and explores the effects of spatial resolution upon estimated inundation extent and flow routing process. Model response shows that even relatively small changes in model resolution have considerable effects on the predicted inundation extent and the timing of flood inundation. Timing sensitivity would be expected, given the relatively poor representation of inertial processes in a diffusion-wave model. Sensitivity to inundation extent is more surprising, but is associated with: (1) the smoothing effect of mesh coarsening upon input topographical data; (2) poorer representation of both cell blockage and surface routing processes as the mesh is coarsened, where the flow routing is especially complex; and (3) the effects of (1) and (2) upon water levels and velocities, which in turn determine which parts of the floodplain the flow can actually travel to. It is shown that the combined effects of wetting and roughness parameters can compensate in part for a coarser mesh resolution. However, the coarser the resolution, the poorer the ability to control the inundation process, as these parameters not only affect the speed, but also the direction of wetting. Thus, high-resolution data will need to be coupled to a more sophisticated representation of the inundation process in order to obtain effective predictions of flood inundation extent. This is explored in a companion paper. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
YuD, Lane SN.2006b. Urban fluvial flood modelling using a two-dimensional diffusion-wave treatment, part 2: Development of a sub-grid-scale treatment[J]. , 20(7): 1567-1583.
This paper develops and tests a sub-grid-scale wetting and drying correction for use with two-dimensional diffusion-wave models of urban flood inundation. The method recognizes explicitly that representations of sub-grid-scale topography using roughness parameters will provide an inadequate representation of the effects of structural elements on the floodplain (e.g. buildings, walls), as such elements not only act as momentum sinks, but also have mass blockage effects. The latter may dominate, especially in structurally complex urban areas. The approach developed uses high-resolution topographic data to develop explicit parameterization of sub-grid-scale topographic variability to represent both the volume of a grid cell that can be occupied by the flow and the effect of that variability upon the timing and direction of the lateral fluxes. This approach is found to give significantly better prediction of fluvial flood inundation in urban areas than traditional calibration of sub-grid-scale effects using Manning's n . In particular, it simultaneously reduces the need to use exceptionally high values of n to represent the effects of using a coarser mesh process representation and increases the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in n . Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Zheng FF, WestraS, LeonardM, et al.2014. Modeling dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge to estimate coastal flooding risk[J]. , 50(3): 2050-2071.
for dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge can be critical for correctly estimating coastal flood risk. Several statistical methods are available for modeling such extremal dependence, but the comparative performance of these methods for quantifying the exceedance probability of rare coastal floods is unknown. This paper compares three classes of statistical methods hreshold-excess, point process, and conditional n terms of their ability to quantify flood risk. The threshold-excess method offers approximately unbiased estimates for dependence parameters, but its application for quantifying flood risk is limited because it is unable to handle situations where only one of the two variables is extreme. In contrast, the point process method (with the logistic and negative logistic models) and the conditional method describe the full distribution of extremes, but they overestimate and underestimate the dependence strength, respectively. We conclude that the point process method is the most suitable approach for modeling dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge when the dependence is relatively strong, while none of the three methods produces satisfactory results for bivariate extremes with very weak dependence. It is therefore important to take the bias of each method into account when applying them to flood estimation problems. A case study is used to demonstrate the three statistical methods and illustrate the implication of dependence to flood risk.
ZscheischlerJ, WestraS, Hurk BJ, et al.2018. Future climate risk from compound events[J]. , 8: 469-477.
Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation, and crop yields variability.... [Show full abstract]