李卫江
, 温家洪, 李仙德
上海师范大学地理系, 上海 200234
LI Weijiang, WEN Jiahong, LI Xiande
收稿日期: 2017-09-26
修回日期: 2018-01-11
网络出版日期: 2018-03-28
版权声明: 2018 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：李卫江(1976-),男,河南灵宝人,博士,副教授,主要从事自然灾害影响评估、GIS开发与应用研究,E-mail：lwj@shnu.edu.cn。
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摘要
开展产业网络灾害经济损失评估研究,是理解产业网络脆弱性和潜在风险,科学指导灾前风险防范及灾后恢复重建决策的关键环节。本文从产业网络中灾害扩散的角度,对其造成的经济损失类型及研究进展进行了系统梳理。结果表明,产业物理损失方面,主要通过建立灾害强度参数与厂房建筑、生产设备及存货等物理损失程度间的脆弱性曲线进行评估。受灾产业中断损失方面,应关注其组合投入要素物理受损情景下的生产能力损失程度(PCLR)。产业网络灾害波及损失方面,主要存在微观“企业供应链网络”和宏观“产业链网络”二种研究尺度。其中,前者以微观企业个体为基本粒度,利用复杂网络分析方法,模拟灾害依托企业供应关系扩散的空间过程及其造成的供应链中断损失;后者以聚合的产业部门或区域为基本粒度,利用投入产出(IO)、可计算一般均衡(CGE)等宏观经济计量模型,模拟灾害在产业部门或区域间的扩散过程及其造成的宏观区域经济损失。最后,从情景分析的视角,构建包括灾害事件场景、产业网络暴露、节点物理损失和中断损失、供应链网络中断损失、宏观产出损失于一体的多过程、多尺度经济损失集成评估体系,以综合模拟灾害损失在产业网络中的放大效应。
关键词：
Abstract
Assessing the economic losses induced by disasters in complex industrial networks is fundamental for understanding the vulnerability and potential risks in industrial networks, and for making decisions on pre-disaster risk reduction and post-disaster reconstruction. From the perspective of disaster impact propagation in industrial networks, we systematically reviewed the types of disaster-induced economic losses and the remarkable research advances in recent years. The main method used in asset damage assessment is to establish the fragility curves between hazard intensity and damage degree of assets such as buildings, equipment, and inventory. For business interruption loss assessment, more research should be focused on production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors resulting from the physical damages of various input factors. Two distinctive analysis scales are often adopted for ripple loss assessment in industrial networks: micro-scale supply chain network and macro-scale industrial chain network. The former takes individual firms as basic units of analysis and utilizes complex network analysis to model the disaster impact spreading through inter-firm transactions and estimate the resulting supply chain disruption losses. In contrast, the latter considers industrial sectors or administrative regions as basic units and employs macro-scale econometric models, such as Input-Output (IO), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), and so on, to simulate disaster impact propagation among industrial sectors or administrative regions, and evaluate the resulting gross output losses. Finally, from the perspective of scenario analysis, we proposed a multi-process, multi-scale integrated assessment methodology that combines hazard scenario, industrial network exposure, asset damages and business interruption losses at local nodes, supply chain disruption losses, and gross output losses, to comprehensively simulate the amplification effect of disasters in industrial networks.
Keywords：
经济全球化,使得地方企业、产业和市场高度依赖,构成一个复杂的供应链和价值链网络。同时,准时制和精益生产准则(Just-in-time & Lean principles),使得供应链上各节点对中间产品流转的时效性更为严格。局部关键节点、基础设施或道路网络一旦直接遭受损坏而失效,关联影响都可能通过供应链前向和后向作用扩散到整个产业经济系统,从局部受灾地区波及到更广泛的地域空间,引发系统性风险(Rose et al, 2002; Wagner et al, 2006; Helbing, 2013)。特别是,近年来日益频发的极端自然灾害事件,例如2005年卡特里娜飓风、2011年日本地震、2011年泰国洪水等,对地方制造业的破坏及其导致的全球经济间接波及影响,使得产业网络的灾害扩散和经济损失问题日益受到关注。如何有效进行产业网络灾害风险建模,揭示灾害扩散路径和机理,定量评估灾害事件对产业网络造成的直接损失和间接影响,构建兼具效率和韧性(Resilience)的产业经济系统,成为灾害风险研究和管理领域亟待解决的热点和难点问题(Levermann, 2014; Okuyama et al, 2014; 李宁等, 2017)。
开展灾害经济损失评估研究,有助于理解产业网络的脆弱性和潜在风险,从而为合理的灾前风险防范和灾后恢复重建决策提供科学依据。少数研究(Khazai et al, 2013; Merz et al, 2013)从生产设施依赖性、劳动力依赖性、基础设施依赖性、供应网络依赖性等方面探讨了产业网络灾害脆弱性的驱动因素,利用指标体系法定性评估区域产业潜在受损的程度和相对高低排序。大多数研究则基于数据驱动的定量方法,在综合考虑自然灾害事件情景、产业暴露以及脆弱性的基础上,试图估算灾害造成的产业网络直接和间接损失。但是,产业网络是由生产节点以及物流、资金信息流构成的地理空间网络,作为特殊承灾体,同时存在直接暴露和间接暴露,个体之间具有复杂关联性。受到灾害冲击后,由于影响持续时间不确定性、波及地理空间的广域性、网络关联结构复杂性、灾害影响传递机理认识的有限性,以及研究立场和服务主体的不同,对于灾害经济损失的理解、模拟方法、空间尺度(粒度)、结果可靠性和意义等方面都存在很大差异性(苏桂武等, 2003; 张继权等, 2007; 刘希林等, 2008; 叶珊珊等, 2010; 赵思健, 2012)。例如,由于研究主体和立场的不同,对于损失评估的范围会有所侧重。政府管理部门从宏观区域角度,需要综合评估灾害所导致的区域环境、经济产出、居民就业和收入等一系列影响;企业从微观角度,则更多考虑灾害对自身生产系统的物理损坏及生产经营过程中断所造成的停产损失;单一小企业仅关注自身的物理损失和停产损失,跨国企业则更关注局部地区生产节点受损对整个供应链网络中断的影响。研究空间尺度的不同,承灾体建模的精细程度也会存在很大差异。精细尺度研究通常以企业层面数据库或实地调查数据为主要来源,以物理设施个体(企业、工厂、建筑或基础设施)为基本粒度;中观或宏观尺度研究通常利用公开的、聚合的统计数据为主要来源,以完整的产业部门、行政区或土地利用功能区为基本单元。
由于立场角度、空间尺度、数据来源和方法等的差异,造成经济损失评估结果往往存在很大不确定性,并且导致防灾工程规划、灾害保险设计、企业业务连续性计划(BCP, Business Continuity Planning)以及政府宏观区域规划等实际应用决策出现偏差(Meyer et al, 2013)。针对现有研究存在的问题,本文从产业网络中灾害扩散的角度,厘清经济损失的概念范畴和最新研究进展,并构建动态情景化、多过程、多尺度的经济损失集成评估体系,为国内外产业经济领域灾害影响评估提供思路和方法借鉴。
在早期,学者分别从不同角度对灾害经济损失进行概念界定和类型划分,如直接损失和间接损失,存量损失与流量损失,直接损失、一阶损失与高阶影响等(Parker et al, 1987; National Research Council, 1999; Rose, 2004)。针对以上不同划分方法,Hallegatte (2015)立足于灾害在产业网络从局部节点到整体扩散的角度,对其不同阶段造成的经济损失类型进行了厘定。首先,灾害(特别是极端灾害)直接造成局部地区生产节点的厂房建筑、生产设施、存货等物理受损(Asset damages),供电、供水、供气等基础设施破坏,以及劳动力供给受阻等;以上因素的综合影响,导致直接受灾节点自身运行中断而形成停产或减产损失(Business interruption losses);同时,生产节点之间道路、港口等运输联系物理受损与中断,也将导致原材料、部件及信息供应流受阻;由于直接受灾节点和运输道路被整合在复杂供应链网络中,停止期间会导致整个供应链网络运行的中断,形成供应链中断损失(Supply chain disruption losses),并且依托供应链使灾害影响从局部的直接受灾地区扩散到外部空间甚至全球范围;企业个体及供应链网络中断损失构成了所在产业部门损失(Sector losses),产业部门损失通过部门之间的投入产出关系波及到整个产业网络形成总产出损失(Output losses);产出损失引发宏观市场供求关系发生变化,使企业、政府、金融机构及终端消费者受到影响,进一步导致长期的宏观经济反馈影响等(Macro-economic feedbacks)。
根据Hallegatte (2015)界定,并参考Rose (2004)提出的存量和流量损失分类方法,本文把受灾节点物理损失(Asset damages)归结为直接经济损失。受灾节点的停产减产损失(Business interruption losses),企业之间交易关联性所导致的其他节点及整个供应链网络运行中断损失(Supply chain disruption losses),产业部门之间投入产出依赖性所导致的总产出波及损失(Output losses),以及长期宏观经济反馈影响(Macro-economic feedbacks)归结为间接经济损失。
自然灾害导致的产业物理设施损失评估已形成许多成熟方法。通常基于详细的灾害危险性数值模拟(如洪水淹没深度、地震烈度),探究不同强度灾害事件对物理设施损坏、劳动力伤亡以及其依赖的关键基础设施运行中断影响等。主要研究方法是基于历史灾情调查或工程模拟的方法建立灾害强度参数与物理损失程度间的脆弱性曲线,但是这些曲线在具体的灾害强度参数、韧性指标、评估内容、损失表达形式等方面有所差异。
以洪水灾害为例,表1对比了针对产业部门洪灾物理脆弱性的3种典型模型。在洪水强度参数方面,3个模型都选择了水深指标,但是水深等级划分上存在较大差异;FLEMOcs还考虑了浑浊度,并量化为3个等级;Multicoloured Manual还考虑了淹没时间,并划分为2个等级。除3种模型之外,其他一些针对山洪、风暴洪水的损失评估模型(Ernst et al, 2010; Pistrika et al, 2010)还考虑了流速、水位升降速度等指标。承灾体类型划分方面,HAZUS-MH考虑年代、地基类型、离地高度、材料和结构(分为木、钢、混凝土、砖、活动房)、体积等因素分类建立厂房建筑的脆弱性模型,并按照使用功能划分为重工、轻工、食品/医药/化工、金属/矿物加工、高新技术和商务办公等,分类建立生产设备和存货的脆弱性模型;FLEMOcs参照欧盟经济活动分类标准,仅粗略划分为工厂制造、公共服务、企业服务、商业贸易4大类,没有进一步的行业细分;Multicoloured Manual则按照使用功能自行划分为工厂、仓库、零售、办公及其他等5大类,并且给出每种类型单位面积资产价值。承灾体规模等级划分方面,HAZUS-MH根据设施实际尺寸划分等级;FLEMOcs根据员工数量划分等级;Multicoloured Manual则没有考虑规模因素。在物理损失表达方面,HAZUS-MH和FLEMOcs表示为相对损失率,Multicoloured Manual则表示为绝对损失金额。在评估内容方面,HAZUS-MH和FLEMOcs把厂房建筑、生产设备和存货分类评估,Multicoloured Manual仅给出1个综合值。除以上3个模型外,de Moel等(2014)还从土地利用的角度,将承灾体划分为工业、基础设施等36大类,给出每类用地的单位面积资产价值,并基于历史洪灾资料建立淹没水深与损失率的关系。
表1 产业部门洪灾物理脆弱性模型比较
Tab.1 Comparison of flood damage functions for the industrial sector
| 模型 | 国家 | 建立方式 | 损失形式 | 洪水强度参数 | 韧性因素 | 损失评估内容 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAZUS-MH (Scawthorn et al, 2006) | 美国 | 灾损统计与 工程模拟 | 损失率 | 水深 | 承灾体类型、尺寸 | 分为厂房建筑、生产设备、存货3个值 |
| FLEMOcs (Kreibich et al, 2010) | 德国 | 灾损统计 | 损失率 | 水深、浑浊度 | 承灾体类型、员工数量、防灾措施 | 分为厂房建筑、生产设备、存货3个值 |
| Multicoloured Manual(Penning-Rowsell et al, 2005) | 英国 | 灾损统计与 工程模拟 | 损失绝对值 | 水深、持续时间 | 承灾体类型、提前预警时间 | 1个综合值 |
以地震灾害为例,HAZUS-MH在进行厂房建筑脆弱性评估时,与洪灾有所不同,重点根据建筑材料与结构、建筑高度、设计标准等指标划分类型;生产设备和存货的划分类型则与洪水模型相同。日本内阁府在建立本国的房屋建筑地震脆弱性曲线时,则重点考虑建筑年代和结构2个因素,按照建筑年代划分为旧(1971年以前)、中(1972-1980年)、新(1981以后)3类;按照材料和结构划分为木制和非木制结构2类;分别建立其不同烈度下的半损和全损概率曲线,并形成全国通用标准。
近年来,我国引入自然灾害风险管理的概念后,由于风险评估和灾害保险等领域应用需求的增加,定量的物理脆弱性曲线(模型)才逐步受到重视,针对住宅和室内财产损失评估方面的脆弱性模型构建和实证研究日益增多(尹占娥等, 2010; 李卫江等, 2014)。在产业经济领域,主要集中在气象灾害对农作物脆弱性和产量损失的影响,而针对制造业和商业等领域的实证研究较少。殷杰等(2012)从土地利用的角度,通过小样本灾损调查,尝试构建面向工业仓储、道路交通等7大类用地的风暴洪水脆弱性曲线,但其把工业仓储用地作为一个类型的划分方法较为粗略,没有考虑内部各门类暴露和脆弱性的差异。
虽然自然灾害物理损失评估已经形成了较为成熟的方法,但是针对产业经济部门仍然存在若干问题需要解决：①不同类型灾害对产业设施的致灾机理差异较大。目前针对河流洪水、地震、暴雨内涝灾害的相关研究较多,定量的物理脆弱性曲线较为丰富,而对于近年来沿海地区频率、强度和影响日益上升的台风(飓风)、风暴洪水等灾害研究相对不足。沿海地区往往是人口和产业活动最为密集的地区,使得物理损失评估缺少可靠的脆弱性曲线作为依据。②与居民住宅等灾害损失评估相比,由于产业经济部门类型繁杂,不同类别产业的厂房建筑、生产设备和库存结构差异性较大,韧性因素不尽相同,而且相关的灾损样本资料非常缺乏,导致适合各行业门类的资产价值折算及灾损曲线构建非常困难。因此,有必要借助政府机构、保险公司及企业共同调查获得大规模样本,或者通过情景模拟、工程试验等方法评估产业物理脆弱性,以缓解灾损资料不足的瓶颈。③由于所处区域社会经济条件的不同,在引入和使用国际上已有脆弱性曲线时,需要做深入、细致的本地化验证和修正。
相关研究主要从灾后(Ex-post)损失统计的角度,通过3种方法估算直接受灾地区的产业中断损失(Meyer et al, 2013)：①利用特定行业部门的参考指标值和实际中断时间评估,例如每个员工每天的增加值损失。②通过比较受灾年份和非灾年份的产出(产量)减少值。③利用物理损失乘以经验系数,例如,刘希林等(2008)面向工业等8大门类,建立地貌灾害(泥石流)造成的直接损失与间接经济损失的比例系数,利用经验系数法估算间接损失。上述评估方法简单、快速,但是存在较大的主观性。
对于产业系统而言,应该从灾前(Ex-ante)角度,关注不同灾害情景下,组合投入要素物理受损可能导致的生产能力损失程度(PCLR)变化(Kajitani et al, 2014; Okuyama et al, 2014; Hallegatte, 2015; Koks et al, 2015)。作为关键性指标因子,PCLR能综合反映直接受灾产业功能和产出水平受破坏程度,并影响其灾后生产中断时间及恢复过程,同时能为IO、CGE等宏观间接损失评估模型提供必要的输入参数(Kajitani et al, 2014)。通常认为自然灾害对产业造成的物理损失就是产出损失(Koks et al, 2015),这种利用单要素的物理损失表示产出损失的方法缺乏合理性,它忽视了各种投入生产要素转换为最终生产能力或产出水平的过程。
相关研究尝试基于特定的灾害情景,构建物理损失与产出损失的转换模型,估算灾区不同类型产业PCLR变化。如Nakano等(2013)重点考虑震后灾区厂房建筑和生产设施受损2个因素,面向基础材料、加工组装、食品、纺织以及其他日用消费品等产业部门,分别建立地震动强度与PCLR变化的关系模型。Kajitani等(2014)在Nakano研究的基础上,进一步考虑产业所依赖的基础设施(包括电力、供水和燃气)中断以及劳动力受损程度。以2011年日本东北地震为例,建立灾区不同类型产业PCLR及空间分布的估算模型。该方法较周全地考虑了各种损失情景对产业生产能力的影响,但以实证调查为主,需要大量历史灾损数据为基础。Koks等(2015)以荷兰鹿特丹港区洪水灾害为情景,考虑固定资产和劳动力2个生产投入要素,分别基于de Moel建立的资产脆弱性曲线和Jonkman等(2008)建立的人口脆弱性曲线,模拟洪水造成的资产和劳动力损失额,并结合本地区投入产出表中各产业部门的要素投入构成关系和Cobb-Douglas生产函数,定量模拟不同频率洪灾情景下各类产业的生产能力损失。该方法虽然基于定量模型,但其利用水深与不同类别产业用地单位面积价值损失关系作为资产脆弱性曲线较为粗略。
不同类别产业都具有其自身的灾害脆弱性,对原材料、生产设施、劳动力、基础设施等生产要素投入依赖程度也呈现差异性。例如,冶金、石油冶炼、机械制造等重工业部门生产设备投入大,水、电能源消耗量高,劳动力依赖性小。汽车制造等加工组装型产业,生产设备精密程度高,劳动力需求量大,大量部件的空间网络化生产对交通物流联系依赖性大。同一自然灾害情景,对不同类别产业造成的生产能力损失程度和中断时间会存在很大的差异性。因此,综合考虑物理损坏、劳动力供给受阻以及关键基础设施中断等情形,细分不同类型产业,构建生产能力损失程度及空间分布估算模型,仍是亟待解决的难点问题。
由于产业网络节点之间的直接或间接关联性,受灾节点的不利影响会逐级传导到其他关联节点并且扩散到整个网络,形成灾害扩散效应和波及损失(Helbing, 2013)。相关研究表明,即使自然灾害造成的局部节点物理破坏很有限,停产时间很短,但是由于产业网络的高度延伸性和关联性,其造成的间接损失却可能非常严重,甚至波及到整个产业经济系统,间接损失通常在总损失中占有显著甚至主导性份额(Noy, 2009; Przyluski et al, 2011; 吴吉东等, 2012)。
根据前述第2节Hallegatte(2015)界定,灾害在产业网络中的扩散过程可归结为 “企业供应链网络” 和“产业链网络”2个层面,反映了对产业网络认知及建模研究的多尺度性。“企业供应链网络”是以微观企业个体为节点(或者基本粒度),灾害影响依托企业之间的复杂交易和供应关系网络进行扩散。例如,汽车制造工厂包括发动机、动力传动、车体、内外饰等部件制造工厂和整车组装厂,某个节点一旦受损就会造成相关联的整车供应链中断。整车生产线通常是基于全国甚至全球范围内的零部件供应工厂组织生产,因此灾害影响会间接扩散波及到更广域的空间。相互交织的整车生产线构成了汽车产业网络,整车生产线的中断会进一步导致汽车产业部门损失。“产业链网络”是以聚合的产业部门(或行政区域)为节点,灾害影响依托产业部门间投入产出依赖关系进行扩散。例如,汽车产业受损后,进一步间接波及到关联的钢铁、塑料等产业。
4.2.1 基于“企业供应链网络”的灾害扩散与中断损失评估研究
该类评估主要从企业的立场和角度出发,以微观企业个体为节点,利用企业之间的复杂交易和供应关系,构建供应链网络,定量模拟灾害依托供应链网络的空间扩散过程,并评估可能造成的供应链网络经济损失,目的是为合理制定企业业务连续性计划(BCP)和韧性策略提供科学依据。
企业是产业经济系统最基本的承灾体单元,灾害造成的宏观区域经济损失取决于微观企业个体的预警、备灾、应急响应行为(Haraguchi et al, 2014)及企业之间相互关联的网络结构(Henriet et al, 2012; Hallegatte, 2015),微观层次灾害损失是宏观经济损失的基础和最终决定因素(郑功成, 2010)。近年来,随着海量数据库技术及数据密集型计算科学的发展,可利用经济普查数据和各个行业领域企业层面数据库的逐步公开(如全球性汽车产业数据库—Marklines、中国经济普查基础数据库、日本帝国数据库—TDB、日本东京商工调查数据库—TSR、美国物流调查数据库—CFS等),基于大体量的企业个体数据及其复杂交易关系,从精细尺度构建企业供应链网络,利用复杂网络分析方法(Complex network analysis)模拟灾害扩散效应成为一种新的趋势(Henriet et al, 2012; Haraguchi et al, 2014; Saito, 2015),它更强调从结构的角度分析网络性能,能更好地模拟产业网络的结构可靠性、关键性节点,以及灾害扩散的因果机理及依赖路径等。
现有相关研究利用社会网络(Kim et al, 2011)、贝叶斯网络(Garvey et al, 2015)、人工神经网络(Teuteberg, 2008)、Agent (Bierkandt et al, 2014)、复杂适应性系统(Pathak et al, 2007)等,从供应链网络的层面进行结构可靠性、灾害扩散等关键问题的理论模拟研究,并提出不同调控策略以优化网络整体抗灾韧性。但是这些研究仅仅针对网络拓扑结构进行分析,没有考虑网络要素(节点和边)所处特定地理环境及空间结构关系对其脆弱性或者韧性的影响,无法模拟灾害的空间扩散过程并提出有效的空间应对措施。
现有相关研究着重探讨供应链网络的拓扑结构和地理空间因素对灾害扩散的影响。如Saito (2015)基于2011年日本地震后企业交易网络的调查发现,小世界(Small-world)和无标度(Scale-free)交易结构对灾害扩散和传导具有加速作用;在企业交易网络中,枢纽(Hub)节点是决定灾害扩散和结构韧性的关键性因素;在经济全球化背景下,枢纽节点的空间分散趋势,会进一步加剧局部灾害损失向外部空间的扩散。Todo等(2015)探讨了企业交易网络的空间结构对其韧性影响,通过对2011年日本地震灾后企业的实地调查发现,企业的地理空间集聚程度会影响供应的多渠道性和抗灾韧性,对灾害的直接和间接损失呈现不同效应。Haraguchi等(2014)对2011年泰国洪水事件后不同企业供应链损失进行比较后得出,依赖性(对关键节点的依赖程度)、可视性(对上下游关联节点空间位置和脆弱性的认知)、可替代性(关键部件的标准化程度及其可替代性)和便携性(生产设施灾时的空间可移动性)是影响网络韧性的关键因素。李卫江等(2016)通过空间映射模型,把企业交易关系网络转换为所属生产工厂实体及其运输道路构成的地理空间网络,并模拟关键节点和边要素物理受损情景下的灾害空间扩散效应。
现有相关研究系统分析了自然灾害对企业及供应链网络的致灾机理及造成的间接损失 (唐彦东等, 2011; Abe et al , 2013)。研究表明,除了直接物理损失外,自然灾害短期(对应于灾后的应急响应阶段和恢复阶段)还可能造成更为严重的间接损失。例如,由于生产节点或者运输联系受损,导致部件生产和供应短缺,影响网络整体运行而形成中断损失;灾害引发区域原材料、劳动力、公共设施供给稀缺性以及价格上涨,间接增加企业成本支出;如果受灾产品在区域市场供给中占有较大比重,将导致市场供求关系发生变化,其他替代产品可能使企业丧失市场竞争力;灾害导致交通中断,改变原有部件产品运输方式或运输线路,增加企业运输成本;受灾节点增加应急与恢复重建支出等。Abe等(2013)从企业供应链网络的层面,构建了自然灾害对关联企业、政府、金融保险机构及终端消费者影响的概念流程图。ASimchi-Levi等(2015)综合考虑网络节点暴露和关键性、网络结构以及恢复时间(TTR, Time To Recover)等因素,构建了供应链网络中断损失评估的概念模型。唐彦东等(2011)从经济学供求曲线及弹性角度,从理论上探讨了灾后供求关系及价格变化对企业产出的动态影响。
从企业供应链网络层面,利用复杂网络分析和GIS方法,可有效模拟拓扑和空间结构特征以及企业个体行为对于网络脆弱性的影响,有效识别网络关键性节点以及灾害扩散的因果机理及依赖路径等。但是,精细尺度研究仍受到几方面限制：①该方法属于数据密集型方法,需要大量的微观企业及其复杂交易关系数据做支持,全面获取这些基础数据较为困难。由于受到数据可获得性的限制,目前相关的实证研究仍主要限定在某一特定的局部区域、企业网络或行业部门。基于Web文本、企业年报、行业统计资料等大数据方法快速、准确挖掘相关海量信息,可以在一定程度上缓解基础数据不足的瓶颈。②企业供应链网络属于一种复杂网络,不仅企业之间存在复杂的组织结构、股权结构和资金信息交易结构,而且企业所属工厂实体之间还存在复杂的产品供应和物流空间结构,这些都是影响其灾时脆弱性和灾后恢复力的关键性因素。如何针对大体量的企业交易和供应关系数据,利用复杂网络分析方法和GIS技术,构建拓扑和地理空间网络、评估网络韧性、模拟灾害的扩散效应等,仍然是亟待解决的关键技术问题。
4.2.2 基于“产业链网络”的灾害扩散与产业波及损失评估研究
该类评估主要从宏观区域及政府管理的角度,以完整的产业部门、行政区(包括国家、省、城市等)作为节点,构建产业链网络,利用产业部门之间或者行政区域之间的投入产出关联系数,以及投入产出法(IO)、可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE)、社会核算矩阵模型(SAM)或者基于特定灾害事件的混合模型(ARIO)等方法,定量模拟灾害在产业部门间或区域间的扩散过程及其造成的区域经济产出、居民就业和收入等一系列间接影响,目的是为灾后关键产业部门的恢复重建提供决策依据(Brookshire et al, 1997; Rose et al, 2005; Steenge et al, 2007; Hallegatte, 2008)。
Okuyama等(2014)对IO、CGE模型的优缺点进行了比较,认为IO模型结构简单、计算方便,但存在线性模拟、缺乏行为响应、市场价格缺失等不足;CGE是在IO基础上的非线性改进模型,考虑了各行为主体(如生产者、消费者、政府等)的经济行为,如价格关系、供需关系、商品要素的替代关系等,能更真实地刻画灾害冲击在不同经济部门和宏观经济领域的传导机制,但存在模型复杂、数据和计算技术要求高等问题。国内学者也针对IO、CGE模型进行了适用性探讨(王海滋等, 1998; 徐嵩龄, 1998; 路琮等, 2002),并开展了一系列评估实证研究,如1998年长江流域大洪水对湖南省各个部门的经济影响(张鹏等, 2012);2008年汶川地震对四川省各部门经济生产和恢复的影响(丁先军等, 2010; Wu et al, 2012; 李宁等, 2012; 吴先华等, 2015; 魏本勇等, 2016; Wu et al, 2017);2008年雨雪冰冻灾害对湖南省各产业部门的经济影响(解伟等, 2012);2011年长三角流域洪灾对流域范围内不同行业和区域的间接影响(姜玲等, 2016);2011年日本地震对世界各国各个部门的经济影响(孟永昌等, 2015)等。IO、CGE作为宏观经济计量模型,在模拟灾害的产业部门或者区域间的扩散效应、评估灾害造成的宏观经济影响、指导政府灾后恢复重建和资金分配等方面起到了非常关键的作用,也是目前使用最为广泛的方法。
但是,IO、CGE宏观模型存在几个方面问题需要解决：①模型主要应用在聚合的产业或区域尺度,把产业部门或者行政区域(如国家、省、城市等)作为整体单元,反映它们之间的关联性,由于对区域产业经济中微观企业个体关注较少,在一定程度上忽视了特定产业网络物理、拓扑及地理结构的复杂性(Schweitzer et al, 2009; Haraguchi et al, 2014),难以自下而上模拟微观企业个体行为及相互作用可能导致的系统非均衡动力学机制(Farmer et al, 2015),并进而回答“自然灾害对于单个关键生产节点或基础设施的物理损坏是如何放大演变为对宏观产业经济系统的影响?”这一风险防范领域中迫切需要解决的关键问题(Meyer et al, 2013)。② IO、CGE模型需要直接受灾产业部门的产能损失作为关键性输入参数,目前主要依靠灾后统计或者某种假设来得到这一参数,这使得模型主要局限应用在灾后的恢复重建阶段。在企业供应链网络全球化背景下,受灾产业部门的经济损失不仅仅局限在直接受灾地区,还可能会通过供应链网络波及到其他外部行政区域(空间溢出效应),这使得准确获取模型参数的难度非常大,也造成IO、CGE模型间接损失评估结果的不确定性。如何从灾前风险分析的视角,设定不同强度的灾害情景,叠加企业空间网络和脆弱性模拟,合理评估主要受灾产业部门的经济损失,为IO、CGE提供必要输入参数,实现直接损失和间接损失的集成评估,是亟待解决的关键问题(Kajitani et al, 2014; Koks et al, 2015)。③由于受到可利用投入产出表限制,IO、CGE模型通常应用在宏观的行政区域尺度,模拟结果难以反映灾害损失在行政区单元内部的空间变化,空间粒度不能有效满足精细化灾害风险管理的应用需求。因此,如何提高区域投入产出表(区域间投入产出表)中行业部门、区域单元的细分程度,是解决问题的关键。
传统上,防洪、防震等工程领域主要关注灾害的物理损失,企业BCP主要关注供应链网络灾害脆弱性和中断经济损失,政府公共管理部门主要关注灾害对区域宏观产业经济影响。由于分属于不同的研究领域,处于相对分割状态(Meyer et al, 2013),导致难以从整体上模拟和理解灾害影响从局部关键节点的物理损失扩散波及到整个产业网络的过程和机理(Przyluski et al, 2011),并难以综合评估灾害事件造成的经济损失。因此,亟待从灾前情景分析的视角,构建包括灾害事件场景、产业暴露、节点物理损失与中断损失、供应链网络中断损失到产业部门波及损失于一体的动态、多过程、多尺度经济损失集成评估体系(图1)。
图1 产业网络灾害经济损失集成评估体系
Fig.1 Integrated assessment system of economic losses induced by disasters in industrial networks
作为特殊类型的承灾体,产业网络可能覆盖全球范围,远超出直接受灾区域;节点之间的关联网络具有特定的拓扑和地理空间结构特征;具有多层级性,属于网络中的网络;网络节点分布具有非均衡性,某些关键节点的受损可能会导致整个网络功能崩溃等。因此,针对产业网络的建模较为复杂,需要同时考虑直接和间接暴露,兼顾个体节点资产暴露及其关联网络的整体结构韧性,注重自下而上的空间多尺度性。
针对局部脆弱性区域或关键性产业,可利用各种企业层面基础数据,构建精细尺度的产业暴露。主要思路为：根据企业地址信息,通过地理编码(Geocoding)建立企业节点的点状分布数据,并得到固定资产、存货、从业人员、产出规模等资产清单;利用企业之间的多层级交易关系和图(Graph)模型构建供应链拓扑网络;根据各企业节点的地理坐标和供应关系,依托区域道路网络和部件物流信息,利用GIS方法把拓扑网络映射为地理空间网络。
同时,利用复杂网络分析和GIS技术评估网络结构的韧性。基本思路为：利用社会网络分析(SNA),计算网络节点的拓扑属性(例如,节点度、所处网络等级),评估网络拓扑结构特征对其韧性影响;利用GIS空间分析模型,计算不同等级节点的空间集聚特征和空间关联结构,评估网络空间结构对灾害空间扩散的影响;从节点的部件生产属性(如标准化及可替代性)、部件类型关键性、拓扑学属性等多个维度,识别网络关键性节点;利用Agent模型,把不同类型节点抽象为具有一定属性和行为特征的主体,模拟关键节点在不同响应行为和韧性策略下,如改变节点的上下游供应关系、增加节点的多源供给及可替代性、提高节点库存水平、提高节点的备灾和灾后恢复水平、改变节点的空间布局、调整部品运输联系的空间结构等,对灾害扩散的阻滞效应及其对网络整体韧性的影响。
对国内外已有成熟的厂房建筑、生产设施、基础设施、道路网络、人口等物理脆弱性曲线进行本地化验证和修正;根据物理脆弱性曲线,选择某一强度自然灾害情景,评估受灾地区产业节点的物理损失程度;综合考虑节点物理设施和劳动力损失,以及基础设施中断的影响,利用区域投入产出表及Cobb-Douglas生产函数,把有形资产及劳动力等生产要素的物理损失转换为生产能力损失,估算其生产能力受损程度(PCLR)变化;根据PCLR,推演其停产(减产)时间及恢复进程,评估其潜在的运行中断损失。
基于网络中直接受损关键节点的生产能力损失程度和中断时间,估算整个供应链网络运行中断及恢复时间(TTR),并建立其灾后产出(产量)水平随时间变化函数;利用Simchi-Levi等(2015)提出的供应链风险评估模型,考虑中断时间和产出变化2个因素,定量评估灾害造成的供应链网络中断损失;由于供应链网络跨区域组织生产,通过区域聚合模型计算供应链网络中断损失的空间分布特征;产业部门是由微观企业个体及供应链网络构成,根据企业供应链网络中断损失进一步估算主要受灾产业部门的经济损失及空间分布,为IO、CGE模型提供必要输入参数。
从产业部门尺度,以主要受灾产业部门的产值(产量)损失作为输入变量,利用区域投入产出表和IO、CGE模型,估算对其他关联产业部门和区域所造成的间接波及损失;分析区域产品市场格局,参考产品市场需求和供给弹性曲线,评估灾后市场供求和价格变化对产出损失的动态影响。
深入理解产业网络脆弱性(包括节点/边要素物理脆弱性和网络结构脆弱性),情景化模拟和理解灾害在产业网络扩散的动态过程、依赖路径与形成机理,是科学进行关键节点保护、网络结构优化、增强韧性并防范系统性风险的重要依据。同时,针对复杂产业网络,定量、精细、合理评估灾害造成的直接和间接经济损失,是科学进行灾害风险计算、费用效益分析和空间应对的重要性基础工作。
(1) 产业物理设施损失评估已形成较为成熟方法,主要是基于历史灾情调查或工程模拟方法建立灾害强度参数与厂房建筑、生产设备、存货等物理损失程度间的脆弱性曲线,但是这些曲线在灾害强度参数、韧性因素、评估内容、损失表达形式等方面有所差异。
(2) 现有研究主要从灾后评估受损产业的运行中断损失。今后应进一步从灾前角度,关注不同灾害情景下,组合投入要素物理受损可能导致的产业生产能力损失程度(PCLR)及空间变化。
(3) 产业网络灾害扩散过程模拟及波及损失评估,主要有微观“企业供应链网络”和宏观“产业链网络”2种研究尺度。其中,“企业供应链网络”以微观企业为基本粒度,利用复杂网络分析和GIS方法,能有效考虑网络拓扑和地理空间结构的复杂性,识别网络关键性节点以及灾害扩散的因果机理及依赖路径,并提高灾害损失评估结果的空间精度。“产业链网络”以聚合的产业部门或区域为基本粒度,利用IO、CGE等宏观经济计量模型,模拟灾害在产业部门或区域间的扩散过程及其造成的宏观区域经济影响。
(4) 未来亟待从情景分析的视角,构建包括灾害事件场景、产业暴露、局部节点物理损失和运行中断损失、供应链网络中断损失、宏观产出损失于一体的,多过程、多尺度的产业网络灾害经济损失集成评估体系,以深入模拟和揭示灾害损失从局部关键节点或基础设施扩散放大到整个产业经济系统的过程和机理。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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A method based on input-output model to evaluate economic impact of disasters [J].
在前人研究的基础上，对灾害经济影响进行了分析，并介绍了ARIO（adaptive regional inputoutput）模型，最终提出了一种考虑产品供需平衡和灾后生产能力限制的灾害经济影响评价投入一产出模型，并利用该模型对汶川地震经济影响做了尝试性的计算。该模型克服了传统投入一产出模型生产结构不变的约束，同时也避免了可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型过度优化社会资源的现象。
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Assessment of indirect economic loss of flood disaster based on multi-regional CGE model: A case of Yangtze River Delta Basin [J].
<p>全面分析洪灾对流域内各子行政区的经济损失可以为精准化灾害管理政策和防洪减灾措施的制定提供科学依据。本文以长江三角洲流域(简称长三角流域)为例,建立了长三角流域内多区域可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)模型,深入分析了2011年长三角流域洪灾对流域内上海、浙江和江苏经济影响的空间和行业特征,并且构建间接影响系数来反映流域内不同区域和行业受洪灾的间接波及程度。结果表明:洪灾对长三角流域内3个省市经济冲击幅度明显不同,农业和房地产业是受到冲击最大的行业;从波及程度来看,上海受洪灾的间接影响波及程度要高于流域内江苏和浙江;食品制造加工业和纺织工业间接影响波及程度要高于其他行业。本文认为,多区域CGE模型不但能够定量化评估洪灾的对流域内经济的间接影响,并且可以细致地反映间接影响在流域内部的区域和行业特征。</p>
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本文就当前国内外对灾害经济损失的认识、损失评估在灾害管理中的重要作用、灾害直接经济损失和间接经济损失评估存在的问题进行了综合分析,论证了灾害损失评估研究的重要性,区分了直接损失和间接损失的差异,阐述了间接损失评估的必要性和可行性。研究结果表明,直接损失和间接损失的评估同等重要、通过合理的评估方法得到的直接和间接损失的评估结果既是防灾减灾的迫切需求,也有利于提高防灾减损的管理水平。灾害学与经济学相结合是有效改进评估方法并提高灾害经济损失评估水平的有效途径。
Importance of economic loss evaluation in natural hazard and disaster research [J].https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.02.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
本文就当前国内外对灾害经济损失的认识、损失评估在灾害管理中的重要作用、灾害直接经济损失和间接经济损失评估存在的问题进行了综合分析,论证了灾害损失评估研究的重要性,区分了直接损失和间接损失的差异,阐述了间接损失评估的必要性和可行性。研究结果表明,直接损失和间接损失的评估同等重要、通过合理的评估方法得到的直接和间接损失的评估结果既是防灾减灾的迫切需求,也有利于提高防灾减损的管理水平。灾害学与经济学相结合是有效改进评估方法并提高灾害经济损失评估水平的有效途径。
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以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。
Risk assessment of industrial geographical network in the scenario of seismic disaster: A case study of Toyota in Japan [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201608008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。
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<p>泥石流是地貌灾害的一种主要类型，泥石流灾害损失目前还无法准确统计，其一是因为对灾害损失的统 计还没有分灾种细化，往往是按大类例如地质灾害甚至是按总类自然灾害来统计；其二是因为灾害损失统计也即 灾情定量评估本身还存在一些科学技术问题尚未解决。灾害损失中的直接经济损失评估只是技术问题，而间接经 济损失评估不仅涉及到技术问题，更重要的是尚有一些科学问题仍未解决。因此，目前还没有一种普遍认同的灾害 间接经济损失评估方法。本文提出了两种方法，调查分析法：理论上可行，操作上困难，实际上只是一种设计方案； 比例系数法：操作上可行，经验成分多，仍然是一种比较粗略的方法。就目前灾害研究水平和防灾减灾实际需要来 考虑，比例系数法仍不失为一种有实用价值的灾害间接经济损失的评估方法。</p>
Estimation on indirect economic losses of geomorphic hazards: Taking debris flow as an example [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.002 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>泥石流是地貌灾害的一种主要类型，泥石流灾害损失目前还无法准确统计，其一是因为对灾害损失的统 计还没有分灾种细化，往往是按大类例如地质灾害甚至是按总类自然灾害来统计；其二是因为灾害损失统计也即 灾情定量评估本身还存在一些科学技术问题尚未解决。灾害损失中的直接经济损失评估只是技术问题，而间接经 济损失评估不仅涉及到技术问题，更重要的是尚有一些科学问题仍未解决。因此，目前还没有一种普遍认同的灾害 间接经济损失评估方法。本文提出了两种方法，调查分析法：理论上可行，操作上困难，实际上只是一种设计方案； 比例系数法：操作上可行，经验成分多，仍然是一种比较粗略的方法。就目前灾害研究水平和防灾减灾实际需要来 考虑，比例系数法仍不失为一种有实用价值的灾害间接经济损失的评估方法。</p>
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灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.03.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。
Quantitatively analytic model for the impact of natural disaster on national economy [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.03.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。
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巨灾影响的全球性:以东日本大地震的经济影响为例 [J].Global economic impacts of large-scale disasters: Case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake [J]. |
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自然灾害风险的行为主体特性与时间尺度问题 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2003.01.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
文章认为:要正确理解灾害风险的概念内涵,首先必须深刻认识灾害风险的行为主体特性,即,自然灾害风险是相对于行为主体--人类及其社会经济活动而言的;灾害风险依赖风险载体某种"价值"的存在而存在;灾害风险随人类某种社会经济活动目标的变化而变化.文章还认为:时间尺度问题,尽管比较复杂,但却是深刻认识、正确评价和有效管理灾害风险所必须澄清的基本问题,灾害风险中的时间尺度可通过如下几方面加以理解和认识,即,不同类别的风险载体具有不同的灾害风险有效时间尺度;不同种类的灾害风险具有不同的时间尺度特性;在不同的时间尺度上,同类灾害风险具有不同的形式和特点.
Behavior subject-oriented qualities and time scale issues of natural disaster risk [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2003.01.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
文章认为:要正确理解灾害风险的概念内涵,首先必须深刻认识灾害风险的行为主体特性,即,自然灾害风险是相对于行为主体--人类及其社会经济活动而言的;灾害风险依赖风险载体某种"价值"的存在而存在;灾害风险随人类某种社会经济活动目标的变化而变化.文章还认为:时间尺度问题,尽管比较复杂,但却是深刻认识、正确评价和有效管理灾害风险所必须澄清的基本问题,灾害风险中的时间尺度可通过如下几方面加以理解和认识,即,不同类别的风险载体具有不同的灾害风险有效时间尺度;不同种类的灾害风险具有不同的时间尺度特性;在不同的时间尺度上,同类灾害风险具有不同的形式和特点.
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地震灾害产业关联间接经济损失评估 [J].The measurement of indirect economic loss of seismic disaster due to the linkage of the sectors [J]. |
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基于投入产出分析的汶川地震灾害间接经济损失评估 [J].Assessment on indirect economic loss of Wenchuan earthquake disaster based on input-output analysis [J]. |
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浅析灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 [J].Elementary discussion about importance of indirect economic loss estimation of disasters [J]. |
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自然灾害后应对口支援多少: 基于间接经济损失评估的视角 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
中国的对口支援对灾后重建具有重要意义。但各支援方应支付多少？按照何种标准进行援助？鲜有相关研究。所以应考虑灾害给支援方带来的间接经济损失等因素。通过构建支援金额与间接经济损失之比的指标，评价了汶川8.0级地震中各支援省市的对口支援行为。结果表明：北京、福建、江西、山东、上海等省市的支援额“过多”，黑龙江、天津、河南、重庆、河北等省市的支援额“过少”，均有失公平。还以2013年发生的芦山7.0级地震为例，就各省市的对口支援额给出了建议值。最后就如何完善对口支援政策提出了相应的建议。
The amount of counterpart support that should be given after natural disasters: Based on an estimation of indirect economic loss [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
中国的对口支援对灾后重建具有重要意义。但各支援方应支付多少？按照何种标准进行援助？鲜有相关研究。所以应考虑灾害给支援方带来的间接经济损失等因素。通过构建支援金额与间接经济损失之比的指标，评价了汶川8.0级地震中各支援省市的对口支援行为。结果表明：北京、福建、江西、山东、上海等省市的支援额“过多”，黑龙江、天津、河南、重庆、河北等省市的支援额“过少”，均有失公平。还以2013年发生的芦山7.0级地震为例，就各省市的对口支援额给出了建议值。最后就如何完善对口支援政策提出了相应的建议。
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基于CGE模型的环境灾害经济影响评估: 以湖南雪灾为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.11.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
环境灾害《比如，气象灾害、荒漠化等）不仅仅造成直接损失（比如，厂房、设备破坏和粮食欠收等），而且会导致经济系统产业链中断，进而影响到区域经济的正常运行。本文以2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害为例。基于CGE模型，评估交通中断对湖南省的间接经济影响。为刻画灾害冲击，CGE模型的改进包括：为反映灾害的区域性，将全国CGE模型降尺度为区域模型；为反映灾后应急情景。选择资本市场宏观闭合规则为资本在部门之间不流动；为反映货物周转量变化，在生产模块增加效率参数；为反映旅客周转最变化，选择劳动力宏观闭合规则为新古典闭合。研究表明：①对于重大环境灾害，间接经济损失甚至比直接损失大：②2008年雪灾引起的湖南省交通瘫痪，造成的间接经济损失为50．4亿元（以增加值表示），约占湖南省前两个月GDP的3％；⑧值得注意，由手产业之间相互关联，简单叠加各产业单独破坏造成的经济损失。往往夸大整个行业同时破坏造成的经济损失。
Assessing the economic impact of environmental disaster: A computable general equilibrium analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.11.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
环境灾害《比如，气象灾害、荒漠化等）不仅仅造成直接损失（比如，厂房、设备破坏和粮食欠收等），而且会导致经济系统产业链中断，进而影响到区域经济的正常运行。本文以2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害为例。基于CGE模型，评估交通中断对湖南省的间接经济影响。为刻画灾害冲击，CGE模型的改进包括：为反映灾害的区域性，将全国CGE模型降尺度为区域模型；为反映灾后应急情景。选择资本市场宏观闭合规则为资本在部门之间不流动；为反映货物周转量变化，在生产模块增加效率参数；为反映旅客周转最变化，选择劳动力宏观闭合规则为新古典闭合。研究表明：①对于重大环境灾害，间接经济损失甚至比直接损失大：②2008年雪灾引起的湖南省交通瘫痪，造成的间接经济损失为50．4亿元（以增加值表示），约占湖南省前两个月GDP的3％；⑧值得注意，由手产业之间相互关联，简单叠加各产业单独破坏造成的经济损失。往往夸大整个行业同时破坏造成的经济损失。
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灾害经济损失概念及产业关联型间接经济损失计量 [J].https://doi.org/10.1088/0256-307X/15/12/025 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
从三个方面拓展了对自然灾害经济的理解，它们是：承灾体，经济损失中的价格与价值，间接经济损失类型。评述了国内迄今提出的关于自然灾害产业关联型间接经济损失的计算方法，同时提出了作者对这一问题的处理，并以中国９０年代的水旱灾害为例，计算了这一期间的平均年度产业关联型间接经济损失及经济损失总值。
The concept of economic loss by disasters and measuring the sector-related-type indirect economic loss [J].https://doi.org/10.1088/0256-307X/15/12/025 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
从三个方面拓展了对自然灾害经济的理解，它们是：承灾体，经济损失中的价格与价值，间接经济损失类型。评述了国内迄今提出的关于自然灾害产业关联型间接经济损失的计算方法，同时提出了作者对这一问题的处理，并以中国９０年代的水旱灾害为例，计算了这一期间的平均年度产业关联型间接经济损失及经济损失总值。
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地震经济损失评估研究综述 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>地震经济损失评估是地震风险分析研究的重要组成部分，也是政府制定地震风险防范管理措施的基础和 依据，因此如何准确评估地震造成的经济损失，具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章回顾了国内外地震经济损失评估 研究的发展进程，对地震造成的直接经济损失、间接经济损失的评估方法进行了概括和总结，并通过分析指出运用 模型评估时存在的困难和以待解决的问题。从总体上来看，国内外对于地震直接经济损失的研究均已形成了较为 稳定的、系统的评估方法，但仍然存在无法整合社会经济这一整体进行评估的不足；而在间接经济损失评估时由于 涉及领域广泛、受影响时间较长、各经济体间联系复杂等原因，很难得出较为精准的结果，因而其评估方法也仍然 处于探索和研究之中。文章最后展望了今后地震经济损失评估研究的发展方向。</p>
A review on seismic economic loss estimation [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>地震经济损失评估是地震风险分析研究的重要组成部分，也是政府制定地震风险防范管理措施的基础和 依据，因此如何准确评估地震造成的经济损失，具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章回顾了国内外地震经济损失评估 研究的发展进程，对地震造成的直接经济损失、间接经济损失的评估方法进行了概括和总结，并通过分析指出运用 模型评估时存在的困难和以待解决的问题。从总体上来看，国内外对于地震直接经济损失的研究均已形成了较为 稳定的、系统的评估方法，但仍然存在无法整合社会经济这一整体进行评估的不足；而在间接经济损失评估时由于 涉及领域广泛、受影响时间较长、各经济体间联系复杂等原因，很难得出较为精准的结果，因而其评估方法也仍然 处于探索和研究之中。文章最后展望了今后地震经济损失评估研究的发展方向。</p>
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风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析: 黄浦江案例 [J].
<p>脆弱性分析是自然灾害风险研究的热点问题之一。风暴洪水是上海黄浦江流域所面临的最主要自然灾害类型, 历史上对该区域造成极为严重的灾害损失。通过多次灾后调查, 结合前人研究成果, 构建该区域7 种主要承灾体经济损失脆弱性方程和人口脆弱性方程。基于前期黄浦江风暴洪水多情景危险性成果, 开展实证研究, 结果显示:经济损失和人口脆弱性分布自黄浦江上游地区向下游逐渐降低。最后, 提出未来脆弱性研究中有待进一步完善和发展的工作。</p>
Vulnerability analysis for storm induced flood: A case study of Huangpu River Basin [J].
<p>脆弱性分析是自然灾害风险研究的热点问题之一。风暴洪水是上海黄浦江流域所面临的最主要自然灾害类型, 历史上对该区域造成极为严重的灾害损失。通过多次灾后调查, 结合前人研究成果, 构建该区域7 种主要承灾体经济损失脆弱性方程和人口脆弱性方程。基于前期黄浦江风暴洪水多情景危险性成果, 开展实证研究, 结果显示:经济损失和人口脆弱性分布自黄浦江上游地区向下游逐渐降低。最后, 提出未来脆弱性研究中有待进一步完善和发展的工作。</p>
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基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估 .https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201005005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害情景模拟与风险评估是灾害研究的核心内容和热点问题之一,但城市自然灾害风险评估至今却缺乏统一的程序与范式。本文选择了城市频发的暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象,结合上海市静安区实证研究,提出了一套基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的思路与方法。基于灾害风险的基本理念,从致灾因子分析、脆弱性分析和暴露分析三方面入手,探讨不同情景下的小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险表达方式;提出了小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估宜采用情景模拟和综合分析方法,充分考虑城市的内部地形特征、降水、径流和排水等因素,创建一个基于GIS栅格的城市内涝模型,并基于多种重现期灾害情景,更客观地模拟内涝积水深度和淹没面积;采用多次实地调查获得的内涝损失数据,拟合出居民房屋和室内财产的灾损曲线;利用灾损曲线评估脆弱性、暴露要素和损失,建立超越概率-损失曲线,创建了基于GIS栅格城市暴雨内涝灾害的风险评估模型与范式,为制订城市暴雨内涝灾害风险管理和规划奠定了基础。这亦为进一步开展小尺度城市自然灾害情景模拟和风险评估研究提供了一种新探索。
Small-scale based scenario modeling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm water-logging [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201005005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害情景模拟与风险评估是灾害研究的核心内容和热点问题之一,但城市自然灾害风险评估至今却缺乏统一的程序与范式。本文选择了城市频发的暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象,结合上海市静安区实证研究,提出了一套基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的思路与方法。基于灾害风险的基本理念,从致灾因子分析、脆弱性分析和暴露分析三方面入手,探讨不同情景下的小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险表达方式;提出了小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估宜采用情景模拟和综合分析方法,充分考虑城市的内部地形特征、降水、径流和排水等因素,创建一个基于GIS栅格的城市内涝模型,并基于多种重现期灾害情景,更客观地模拟内涝积水深度和淹没面积;采用多次实地调查获得的内涝损失数据,拟合出居民房屋和室内财产的灾损曲线;利用灾损曲线评估脆弱性、暴露要素和损失,建立超越概率-损失曲线,创建了基于GIS栅格城市暴雨内涝灾害的风险评估模型与范式,为制订城市暴雨内涝灾害风险管理和规划奠定了基础。这亦为进一步开展小尺度城市自然灾害情景模拟和风险评估研究提供了一种新探索。
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基于投入产出模型的区域洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估 [J].
<p>重大自然灾害的恢复重建的时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关，因而影响灾害造成的总损失。因此评估灾害的间接经济损失是灾后制定减灾政策的重要内容。投入产出模型是灾害经济影响评估应用最为广泛的模型，基于区域投入产出模型，结合湖南省经济状况和救灾政策，以月为时间间隔，模拟了1998年湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况，并用建筑业灾后恢复数据进行了比较验证。模拟结果表明在洪涝灾害中湖南省的间接经济损失为17846亿元，占直接经济损失的39%。不同部门灾后恢复模拟结果有利于制定减灾战略、优化救灾和重建资源的分配，最大限度地减少灾害对经济系统的冲击。尽管该模拟结果还存在一定的不确定性，结果表明投入产出模型在模拟灾害间接损失影响及恢复重建期的预估上能够发挥很好的作用</p>
Assessment of regional flood disaster indirect economic loss based on input-output model [J].
<p>重大自然灾害的恢复重建的时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关，因而影响灾害造成的总损失。因此评估灾害的间接经济损失是灾后制定减灾政策的重要内容。投入产出模型是灾害经济影响评估应用最为广泛的模型，基于区域投入产出模型，结合湖南省经济状况和救灾政策，以月为时间间隔，模拟了1998年湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况，并用建筑业灾后恢复数据进行了比较验证。模拟结果表明在洪涝灾害中湖南省的间接经济损失为17846亿元，占直接经济损失的39%。不同部门灾后恢复模拟结果有利于制定减灾战略、优化救灾和重建资源的分配，最大限度地减少灾害对经济系统的冲击。尽管该模拟结果还存在一定的不确定性，结果表明投入产出模型在模拟灾害间接损失影响及恢复重建期的预估上能够发挥很好的作用</p>
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自然灾害风险分析的时空尺度初探 [J].A preliminary study on the spatial and temporal scales of natural disaster risk analysis [J]. |
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Building resilient supply chains against natural disasters: The cases of Japan and Thailand [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150913501606 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Emerging global supply chains not only increased efficiency in production and delivery but also natural-disaster risks. Based on two recent major natural disasters in Japan and Thailand, this article discusses the increasing natural disaster risks due to the development of global supply chains and identifies the impact of natural disasters on global supply chains. The results indicate that the risk of natural disasters is not confined by geographical boundaries, as negative effects can spill over globally throughout the supply chains and affect all the entities involved including firms, governments, financial institutions and end consumers. The article argues that enhancing disaster resilience becomes increasingly important in this context for maintaining the competitiveness of firms and the health and strength of the whole economy. Both firms and governments need to take disaster risks into consideration in supply-chain management to avoid supply-chain disruptions and subsequent negative effects. The article proposes some strategies to build resilient supply chains against natural disasters, emphasizing collaboration between the public and private sectors.
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Acclimate -a model for economic damage propagation: Part 1: Basic formulation of damage transfer within a global supply network and damage conserving dynamics [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-014-9523-4 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Climate extremes are expected to become more frequent and intense under future warming. In a globalized economy, outages of productive capital and infrastructure have the potential to spread around the world. In order to address those repercussions in the framework of a risk analysis or a resilience strategy, a disaster’s indirect consequences on the economic supply network need to be understood. We developed a numerical model to simulate these indirect effects along global supply chains for time scales of days to months. This article is the first in a series of four, which describes the damage-propagation model. In this first paper, we describe the pure damage propagation within the network and focus on the fundamental propagation of supply failure between production sites including their input and output storages and transport-related time delay. Idealized examples are presented to illustrate the dynamic damage propagation. Further articles will extend the dynamics to include demand changes due to the perturbation in the supply, the possibility to extend production to compensate for production failure, price responses and adaptive changes in the economic supply network. The underlying global supply network is based on data from multi-regional input–output tables. Transportation times are derived from geographic distances. In the initial model version presented here, indirect production losses are caused by cascading effects. They are propagated within the network without significant reduction in loss (damage conservation). They can thus be observed within the different storages or they “leak out” of the system through reduced consumption of the final consumer. As an example, we investigate the cascading behavior of losses for the machinery sector in Japan.
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Direct and indirect economic losses from earthquake damage [J].https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585975 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Evaluating the effect of flood damage-reducing measures: A case study of the unembanked area of Rotterdam, the Netherlands [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0420-z URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage amage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level.
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Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution geographic data [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9520-y URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The paper presents a consistent micro-scale flood risk analysis procedure, relying on detailed 2D inundation modelling as well as on high resolution topographic and land use database. The flow model is based on the shallow-water equations, solved by means of a finite volume scheme on multi-block structured grids. Using highly accurate laser altimetry, the simulations are performed with a typical grid spacing of 2m, which is fine enough to represent the flow at the scale of individual buildings. Consequently, the outcomes of hydraulic modelling constitute suitable inputs for the subsequent exposure analysis, performed at a micro-scale using detailed land use maps and geographic database. Eventually, the procedure incorporates social flood impact analysis and evaluation of direct economic damage to residential buildings. Besides detailing the characteristics and performance of the hydraulic model, the paper describes the flow of data within the overall flood risk analysis procedure and demonstrates its applicability by means of a case study, for which two different flood protection measures were evaluated.
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A third wave in the economics of climate change [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9965-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.
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An analytical framework for supply network risk propagation: A Bayesian network approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.034 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
There are numerous examples of supply chain disruptions that have occurred which have had devastating impacts not only on a single firm but also on various other firms in the supply network. We utilize a Bayesian Network (BN) approach and develop a model of risk propagation in a supply network. The model takes into account the inter-dependencies among different risks, as well as the idiosyncrasies of a supply chain network structure. Specific risk measures are derived from this model and a simulation study is utilized to illustrate how these measures can be used in a supply chain setting.
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An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01046.x URL PMID: 18643833 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.
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The indirect cost of natural disasters and an economic definition of macroeconomic resilience [R/OL]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1-37. |
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Flood risks and impacts: A case study of Thailand’s floods in 2011 and research questions for supply chain decision making [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.09.005 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
This paper investigates the impact of floods on the global economy through supply chains, and proposes measures for the related supply chain risk. We examine Thailand’s 2011 flood since it is a notable example of the impact of floods both on industries and the whole economy. The protracted floods affected the primary industrial sectors in Thailand, i.e., the automotive and electronics industries, with a devastating impact on the whole economy. The impact of natural hazards on the global supply chain is increasing. However, the impact on each firm that is exposed is different depending on how well they are prepared and how they respond to the risks. Designing supply chains in a more resilient way will ultimately reduce risks to the economy. Comparing different supply chains and industries’ structure in Thailand, this study identifies the factors in private investment decision- making, such aslocations of facilities, alternate locations of production, the diversified sources of procurement, emergent assistance from other partner companies in the same supply chain,anddegree of the recovery of customersand proposes a hypothesis and related questions for future research.
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Globally networked risks and how to respond [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12047 URL PMID: 23636396 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Today’s strongly connected, global networks have produced highly interdependent systems that we do not understand and cannot control well. These systems are vul
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Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.10.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article proposes a theoretical framework to investigate economic robustness to exogenous shocks such as natural disasters. It is based on a dynamic model that represents a regional economy as a network of production units through the disaggregation of sector-scale input–output tables. Results suggest that disaster-related output losses depend on direct losses heterogeneity and on the economic network structure. Two aggregate indexes02– concentration and clustering02– appear as important drivers of economic robustness, offering opportunities for robustness-enhancing strategies. Modern industrial organization seems to reduce short-term robustness in a trade-off against higher efficiency in normal times.
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Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.12.022 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
This paper presents a model developed in the Netherlands for the estimation of damage caused by floods. The model attempts to fill the gap in the international literature about integrated flood damage modelling and develop an integrated framework for the assessment of both direct hazard-induced damages and indirect economic damages such as the interruption of production flows outside the flood affected area, as well as loss of life due to flooding. The scale of damage assessment varies from a specified flood-prone area in a river basin or a coastal region to the country's entire economy. The integrative character of the presented model is featured by the combination of information on land use and economic data, and data on flood characteristics and stage-damage functions, where the geographical dimension is supported by modern GIS to obtain a damage estimate for various damage categories. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated in a case study estimating expected flood damage in the largest flood-prone area in the Netherlands.
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Estimation of production capacity loss rate after the great East Japan earthquake and tsunami in 2011 [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2013.872081 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This research aims to investigate a method for estimating the production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors damaged by a disaster, such as an earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear radiation, particularly the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. PCLR is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by a disaster. In particular, this paper proposes a method of PCLR estimation that considers the two main causes of capacity losses as observed from past earthquake disasters, namely damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems. To achieve the quantitative estimation of PCLR, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors for capturing the impact of lifeline disruptions have been adopted, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to the case study of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the PCLR in various industrial sectors is estimated; the estimated PCLR in the manufacturing sectors are then compared to the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of the individual sectors.
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An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0551-z URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively.
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Structural investigation of supply networks: A social network analysis approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2010.11.001 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
A system of interconnected buyers and suppliers is better modeled as a network than as a linear chain. In this paper we demonstrate how to use social network analysis to investigate the structural characteristics of supply networks. Our theoretical framework relates key social network analysis metrics to supply network constructs. We apply this framework to the three automotive supply networks reported in Choi and Hong (2002). Each of the supply networks is analyzed in terms of both materials flow and contractual relationships. We compare the social network analysis results with the case-based interpretations in Choi and Hong (2002) and conclude that our framework can both supplement and complement case-based analysis of supply networks.
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Integrated direct and indirect flood risk modeling: development and sensitivity analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12300 URL PMID: 25515065 [本文引用: 2] 摘要
In this article, we propose an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small- and large-scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modeling of total economic losses from a flood event to a full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken that translates direct losses of both capital and labor into production losses using the Cobb-Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistency in loss accounting. The recovery of the economy is modeled using a hybrid input-output model and applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using six different flood events (1/10 up to 1/10,000). This procedure allows gaining a better insight regarding the consequences of both high- and low-probability floods. The results show that in terms of expected annual damage, direct losses remain more substantial relative to the indirect losses (approximately 50% larger), but for low-probability events the indirect losses outweigh the direct losses. Furthermore, we explored parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and varied critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, among others, flood duration and labor recovery, using a scenario approach. Our findings have two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners. First, high-probability events are qualitatively different from low-probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period. Second, there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high-probability and low-probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region.
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Development of FLEMOcs: A new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.529815 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.
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Climate economics: Make supply chains climate-smart [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/506027a URL PMID: 24499903 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Society's infrastructure is hit hard by extreme weather. Networks of trade, transport and production need to adapt globally, says Anders Levermann.
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A composite indicator model to assess natural disaster risks in industry on a spatial level [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2012.737820 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
In the event of natural disasters, industrial production sites can be affected by both direct physical damage and indirect damage. The indirect damage, which often exceeds the direct ones in value, mainly arises from business interruptions resulting from the impairment of information and material flows as well as from domino effects in interlaced supply chains. The importance of industry for society and the domino effects often result in severe economic, social, and environmental consequences of industrial disasters making industrial risk management an important task for risk managers at the administrative level (e.g. civil protection authorities). Since the possible industrial disaster damage depends not only on hazard and exposure but also on the vulnerability of a system, an effective and efficient industrial risk management requires information about the system regionalized vulnerability. This paper presents a new methodology for structural industrial vulnerability assessment based on production factors that enables to assess the regional industrial disaster vulnerability. In order to capture industry-specific vulnerability factors and to account for the processes underlying regional industrial vulnerability, a two-stage approach is developed. This approach combines a composite indicator model to assess sector-specific vulnerability indices (Vs) with a new regionalization method. The composite indicator model is based on methodologies from the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MultiAttribute Value Theory) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method is applied to correct the (Vs) for interdependencies among the indicators. Finally, the developed approach is applied to an exemplar case study and the industrial vulnerability of 44 administrative districts in the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is assessed.
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Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards: State of the art and knowledge gaps [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Functional fragility curves for a production facility of industrial sectors in case of earthquake disaster [J].https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejseee.69.57 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper proposes "functional fragility curves" for a production facility of industrial sectors, which represent conditional probabilities of reduction of production capacities given a ground motion. This is an extension of the method of fragility curves for structural vulnerability. The present paper conducts a questionnaire survey regarding economic impacts on business activities of firms after the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake and estimates the functional fragility curves by using the data. The estimation is conducted for different industrial sectors and the results imply that functional fragility curves are different between sectors. The information of functional fragility curves in this paper are helpful for conducting quick estimation of economic impacts on business sectors in case of large scale earthquake. In addition, the functional fragility curves can be used by individual firms for understanding the potential impacts of future disasters on their businesses and preparing countermeasures for the risk such as business continuity plan (BCP).
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The macroeconomic consequences of disasters [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.02.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro-economy in the short-run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production. Yet, interestingly, developing countries, and smaller economies, face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies. A close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns. Countries with a higher literacy rate, better institutions, higher per capita income, higher degree of openness to trade, and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro-economy. These all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction. Financial conditions also seem to be of importance; countries with more foreign exchange reserves, and higher levels of domestic credit, but with less-open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters, with less adverse spillover into domestic production.
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Disaster impact and input-output analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2013.871505 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Macroeconomics models, such as the input utput model, the social accounting matrix, and the computable general equilibrium model, have been used for impact analysis of catastrophic disasters for some time. While the use of such models to disaster situation, which may quite differ from the ordinary economic setting, has been critiqued (for recent example, see Albala-Bertrand, 2013), there are still valuable reasons for the use of such models. In particular, such models can be used in order to quickly provide a ballpark estimate of the system-wide impact for recovery plan and finance and/or to evaluate disaster countermeasures in the pre-event period. This paper presents how these methodologies have evolved to incorporate with disaster-specific feature and discusses how far they still need to go from the current stage. This paper also serves as a preface to this special issue, which encompasses several papers devoted to the use of macroeconomic data and models to assess economic losses from disasters.
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Complexity and adaptivity in supply networks: Building supply network theory using a complex adaptive systems perspective [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.2007.00170.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Supply networks are composed of large numbers of firms from multiple interrelated industries. Such networks are subject to shifting strategies and objectives within a dynamic environment. In recent years, when faced with a dynamic environment, several disciplines have adopted the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) perspective to gain insights into important issues within their domains of study. Research investigations in the field of supply networks have also begun examining the merits of complexity theory and the CAS perspective. In this article, we bring the applicability of complexity theory and CAS into sharper focus, highlighting its potential for integrating existing supply chain management (SCM) research into a structured body of knowledge while also providing a framework for generating, validating, and refining new theories relevant to real-world supply networks. We suggest several potential research questions to emphasize how a CAS perspective can help in enriching the SCM discipline. We propose that the SCM research community adopt such a dynamic and systems-level orientation that brings to the fore the adaptivity of firms and the complexity of their interrelations that are often inherent in supply networks.
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Damage to residential buildings due to flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9476-y URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This article analyzes the direct damage to residential buildings caused by the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina in the year 2005. A public dataset has been analyzed that contains information on the economic damage levels for approximately 95,000 residential buildings in the flooded area. The relationship between the flood characteristics and economic damage to residential buildings has been investigated. Results of hydrodynamic flood simulations have been used that give insight in water depths and flow velocities in the study area. In general, differences between the three polders in the observed distributions of damage estimates are related to differences in flood conditions. The highest damage percentages and structural damage mainly occurred in areas where higher flow velocities occurred, especially near the breaches in the Lower 9th Ward neighborhood. Further statistical analysis indicated that there is not any strong one-to-one relationship between the damage percentage and the water depth or the depth elocity product. This suggests that there is considerable uncertainty associated with stage-damage functions, especially when they are applied to individual structures or smaller clusters of buildings. Based on the data, a more general approach has been proposed that could be used to distinguish different damage zones based on water depth and flow velocity for an area that is affected by flooding due to breaching of flood defenses. Further validation of existing damage models with the dataset and further inclusion of information on building type in the analysis of damage levels is recommended.
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Indirect costs of natural hazards[R/OL] . 2011-09-01[2018-01-07]. . |
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Economic principles, issues, and research priorities in hazard loss estimation [M]//Okuyama Y, Chang S E.
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Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.2005.45.issue-1 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Business interruption losses from natural hazards: Conceptual and methodological issues in the case of the NCorthridge earthquake [J].https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2002.0401 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents several refinements in a hazard loss estimation methodology and applies it to measuring business interruption losses from utility lifeline disruptions following the Northridge Earthquake. The analysis indicates that losses are highly sensitive to business resiliency. The results are then compared with survey-based estimates in an attempt at model validation.
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Geographical spread of interfirm transaction networks and the Great East Japan Earthquake [M]//Watanabe T, Uesugi I, Ono A. |
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HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology: II: Damage and loss assessment [J].https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2006)7:2(72) URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Part I of this two-part paper provided an overview of the HAZUS-MH Flood Model and a discussion of its capabilities for characterizing riverine and coastal flooding. Included was a discussion of the Flood Information Tool, which permits rapid analysis of a wide variety of stream discharge data and topographic mapping to determine flood-frequencies over entire floodplains. This paper reports on the damage and loss estimation capability of the Flood Model, which includes a library of more than 900 damage curves for use in estimating damage to various types of buildings and infrastructure. Based on estimated property damage, the model estimates shelter needs and direct and indirect economic losses arising from floods. Analyses for the effects of flood warning, the benefits of levees, structural elevation, and flood mapping restudies are also facilitated with the Flood Model.
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Economic networks: The new challenges [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173644 PMID: 19628858 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract The current economic crisis illustrates a critical need for new and fundamental understanding of the structure and dynamics of economic networks. Economic systems are increasingly built on interdependencies, implemented through trans-national credit and investment networks, trade relations, or supply chains that have proven difficult to predict and control. We need, therefore, an approach that stresses the systemic complexity of economic networks and that can be used to revise and extend established paradigms in economic theory. This will facilitate the design of policies that reduce conflicts between individual interests and global efficiency, as well as reduce the risk of global failure by making economic networks more robust.
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Identifying risks and mitigating disruptions in the automotive supply chain [J].https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.2015.0804 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Firms are exposed to a variety of low-probability, high-impact risks that can disrupt their operations and supply chains. These risks are difficult to predict and quantify; therefore, they are difficult to manage. As a result, managers may suboptimally deploy countermeasures, leaving their firms exposed to some risks, while wasting resources to mitigate other risks that would not cause significant damage. In a three-year research engagement with Ford Motor Company, we addressed this practical need by developing a novel risk-exposure model that assesses the impact of a disruption originating anywhere in a firm's supply chain. Our approach defers the need for a company to estimate the probability associated with any specific disruption risk until after it has learned the effect such a disruption will have on its operations. As a result, the company can make more informed decisions about where to focus its limited risk-management resources. We demonstrate how Ford applied this model to identify previously unrecognized risk exposures, evaluate predisruption risk-mitigation actions, and develop optimal postdisruption contingency plans, including circumstances in which the duration of the disruption is unknown.
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Thinking about imbalances in post-catastrophe economies: An input-output based proposition [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310701330308 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In this paper we focus on the consequences of a major catastrophe for a modern economy, where ‘major’ means that a significant part of the economy's productive capacity is lost. In the aftermath of the catastrophe, authorities have to address a great number of issues. We show, using basic principles, that input–output methodology offers a flexible set of tools to address three fundamental issues: (1) obtaining a systematic insight in the imbalances that exist in the non-affected area after the catastrophe, (2) determining the nature of these imbalances and the way they affect options in the recovery process, and (3) introducing the elements of a cost-benefit analysis in the context of prevention and precautionary policies. Our approach strongly supports the need for extensive contingency planning in the presence of major natural hazards. A numerical example accompanies the various steps of the exercise.
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Supply chain risk management: A neural network approach [M]//Ijioui R, Emmerich H, Ceyp M. |
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How do supply chain networks affect the resilience of firms to natural disasters. Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12119 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This paper examines how supply chain networks affected the resilience of firms to the Great East Japan Earthquake, particularly looking at the effects on the time period before resuming operations after the earthquake and sales growth from the pre- to the post-earthquake period. The results indicate that the expansion of supply chain networks has two opposing effects on the resilience of firms to disasters. On the one hand, when firms are connected with more firms through supply chain networks, they are more likely to experience disruptions in supply and demand, which delay recovery. On the other hand, firms can benefit from diversified networks with suppliers and clients because they can substitute the surviving firms in the network for the damaged partners and receive support from them. Our results indicate that the latter's positive effect on recovery exceeds the former's negative effect for many types of network, implying that diversified supply chain networks lead to the resilience of firms to natural disasters.
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An empirical investigation into supply chain vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pursup.2007.01.004 URL 摘要
A growing number of academicians and practitioners have put supply chain risks on their agendas, particularly triggered by a recent series of catastrophic events that have disrupted economies and supply chains around the globe. Given the increasing awareness of this important topic, the purpose of this research was to study supply chain risks in more detail and to investigate the relationship between supply chain vulnerability and supply chain risk. Responses from 760 executives from firms operating in Germany reveal that supply chain characteristics such as a firm's dependence on certain customers and suppliers, the degree of single sourcing, or reliance on global supply sources are relevant for a firm's exposure to supply chain risk. Overall, this research represents the first large-scale investigation of this important relationship and provides a finer understanding of the antecedents of supply chain vulnerability.
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| [67] |
Regional indirect economic impact evaluation of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1078-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Disaster loss estimates are helpful for managing post-disaster reconstruction and for designing disaster-risk mitigation strategies. However, most of these estimates in China merely consider direct losses, and only a few include indirect economic losses. As the most destructive earthquake since the founding of the People Republic of China in 1949, the Wenchuan Earthquake that occurred in 2008 resulted in direct economic damages reached Chinese Yuan (CNY) 845 billion (US $124 billion). The aim of the study was to estimate indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province through the Adaptive Regional Input utput (ARIO) model, which can reflect disaster-related changes in production capacity, ripple effects within the economic system, and adaptive behaviors of economic actors. The results showed that indirect economic losses in the production and housing sectors were estimated at 40% of the direct economic losses, i.e., approximately CNY 300 billion; moreover, the model predicted an 8-year reconstruction period. Several factors contributed to these losses, including significant damages to key sectors, financial constraints on reconstruction, post-earthquake investment instability, and limits in reconstruction capacity. Active government support policies post-earthquake are a useful strategy to mitigate the adverse economic impact of an earthquake in developing countries.
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| [68] |
On the amount of counterpart assistance to be provided after natural disasters: From the perspective of indirect economic loss assessment [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2016.1229655 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
China090005s counterpart assistance policy is of vital importance in providing guidance for emergency management and post-disaster reconstruction. However, the amount of assistance that partner provinces should provide as well as the criteria that partners should abide by in offering counterpart assistance remain a main challenge. The goal of this research is to fill this gap by proposing a new framework consisting of an interregional input090009output (IRIO) model and a resilience index. Subsequently, the indirect economic loss is obtained by utilizing the index system of provincial economic resilience assessments, with measures of indirect economic loss developed from the IRIO. Furthermore, to examine the internal validity and systematic error, the reliability of the adopted models, the calculation methods, and the index systems are investigated. To assess the external validity of the proposed measures and resilience index of the framework, data from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake are applied for estimating parameter values of the framework, and a follow-up investigation was conducted for examining the fairness and enhanced effectiveness of the new counterpart assistance criteria. In summary, this paper attempts to present some new ideas about the analysis of economic motivations of mutual aid and the improvement of the counterpart assistance policy.
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