田富强
, 程涛
TIAN Fuqiang, CHENG Tao
收稿日期: 2017-12-23
修回日期: 2018-01-13
网络出版日期: 2018-01-28
版权声明: 2018 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：田富强(1975-),男,河南人,副教授,从事流域水文过程及模拟、水资源管理等研究,E-mail：tianfq@tsinghua.edu.cn。
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摘要
进入人类纪尤其是近数十年来,人类活动对水文过程的影响愈来愈突出,愈来愈强烈,许多新的问题用传统水文学理论难以给出合理的分析和解释,因此,作为两个关注人类活动影响的水文学分支学科,社会水文学和城市水文学受到越来越多的关注。随着人水互动关系的增强,水文系统和人类系统逐渐演变为一个耦合系统,为研究其互馈关系和协同演化过程,社会水文学应运而生。城市是人类活动与自然系统相互影响最剧烈的部分之一,城市区域水循环问题日趋复杂,由此诞生了城市水文学。这两个学科的研究,对水资源和与其相关的经济社会发展的中长期规划和管理,指导城市规划建设、增强城市水安全和改善城市水环境具有重要意义。本文梳理了两个学科的发展规律,总结了研究特点。分析了两个学科的研究现状和发展趋势,包括社会水文学对社会因子的研究、典型流域的案例研究、不同案例的对比研究、模型模拟研究;以及城市水文学中城市化对降水和洪涝灾害的影响研究,城市化与生态环境响应关系的研究。本文探讨了两个学科的重点研究领域,如社会水文学中的本构关系研究、比较社会水文学研究、交叉学科研究等;城市水文学中的城市化对水文过程影响机理及模拟研究、城市暴雨洪水监测与预测预警技术研究、城市雨洪管理和资源化利用技术研究等。
关键词：
Abstract
The impact of human activities on hydrological processes becomes remarkable in Anthropocene, and many problems go beyond the scope of traditional hydrology. As two important sub-disciplines in hydrology that focus on human interventions, socio-hydrology and urban hydrology have attracted increasingly more attention. With the strengthened interactions between human and water, hydrological and human systems are becoming tightly coupled, and socio-hydrology emerged to investigate the feedbacks between the two systems and their coevolution processes. Cities are places where human activities and the natural system interact most intensively, and the hydrological processes in urban regions are becoming more complicated, therefore urban hydrology has been developed. The two disciplines are of great importance for the medium- and long-term planning and management of water resources and related socioeconomic development, as well as for guiding urban planning and construction, enhancing urban water security, and improving urban water environment. This article reviewed the patterns of development and characteristics of research of the two disciplines. It also analyzed the research status and development trends, including the study of social factors, case study in representative basins, comparative study of different cases, and model simulation in socio-hydrology, as well as the impact of urbanization on precipitation and flood, and the response relationship between urbanization and environment in urban hydrology. Key study areas in the two disciplines are discussed. For socio-hydrology, the key study areas include constitutive relation study, comparative socio-hydrology, and interdisciplinary study while the key study areas of urban hydrology include the mechanism and simulation of urbanization impact on hydrological processes, monitoring and forecasting technology of urban rainstorm and flood, and urban rain-flood management and resource utilization technology.
Keywords：
人与水之间的互动自古以来就存在。一方面,人们逐水而居,也有研究表明水文过程的变异性、冰期与间冰期的交替对社会结构、王朝更迭产生重要影响(孙秋梅等, 2005);另一方面,人类利用水资源并改造自然(谢丽, 2001)。在社会生产力较低的情况下,人水互动的关系相对较弱,传统的水文学研究将水文系统和人类系统视为两个独立的系统,将人类活动影响视为水文系统的外生变量。进入人类纪,人水互动关系增强,水文系统和人类系统演变为一个耦合系统(Blair et al, 2016)。传统的水文学无法刻画水文系统和人类系统的互馈关系和协同演化过程,无法对耦合系统的变化作出合理预测(Srinivasan et al, 2017),针对这一问题,社会水文学应运而生。社会水文学基于传统水文学和交叉学科,将人类系统的社会驱动力和水文系统的自然驱动力视为“人—水”耦合系统的内生变量,运用历史分析、比较分析和过程分析并采用定量化的方法,理解和预测“人—水”耦合系统的协同演化过程(Sivapalan et al, 2012)。
气候变化导致了水文情势的剧烈变化,水文系统的不确定性增加(Milly et al, 2008)。同时,人类活动对水文系统的影响逐渐增强,对水文系统的研究不得不更多地考虑人类活动的影响,人类因应环境变化而对自身经济社会发展模式进行调整的可能性也大大增加(丁婧祎等, 2015)。传统水文学的研究方法中,水文系统和人类系统相对独立,人类活动的影响被视为水文系统的外生变量,因之对社会因素考虑不够,预测的作用不足,需要新的理论方法来进行研究(徐宗学等, 2010)。将人类活动视为系统的内生变量,考虑“人—水”耦合系统的协同演化过程,从而对“人—水”耦合系统进行更好地刻画和预测,成为水文科学的热点问题和关注焦点(刘攀等, 2016)。水资源的规划与管理要解决人类用水需求与自然供水之间的矛盾,最终目的是通过合理的管理来实现经济社会的可持续发展。对自然供水和人类用水需求进行合理准确地预测和规划,可为社会经济发展规划提供重要参考(顾圣平等, 2009)。社会水文学重点研究“人—水”耦合系统的互馈关系和协同演化,增强了对“人—水”耦合系统演化的长期预测能力,对水资源和与水资源相关经济社会发展的中长期规划和管理具有重要意义(Sivapalan et al, 2014)。
城市作为地球系统的一部分,在发展过程中时刻与自然环境相互影响、相互联系。随着城市化进程的加快,城市与自然环境之间的相互影响逐渐加大,城市区域的水循环相关研究面临的问题也日趋复杂,并逐渐形成城市水文学分支学科(Fletcher et al, 2013)。城市水文学研究囊括了城市化水文效应以及城市化伴生的水环境与水生态效应、城市水文过程机理解析和过程模拟等内容,通过降雨观测、水文序列分析以及水文模型等一系列研究方法,揭示城市化对城市水文过程和自然生态环境的影响特征和机理(刘家宏等, 2014; 张建云等, 2014)。在全球气候变化条件下,全球大尺度水循环过程发生改变,极端气候事件频发,引发严重的城市水资源短缺和洪涝灾害等问题(IPCC, 2014),给城市水文学研究带来了新的机遇和挑战。
城市的水文效应十分复杂,涉及水循环、水热交换、物质迁移以及城市本体功能等多个过程,因此,城市水文效应成为水科学研究的热点问题,关系到城市发展和水安全(宋晓猛等, 2013; 张建云等, 2013)。根据IPCC报告(IPCC, 2014),全球气候在未来一段时间内(50~100年)仍将保持继续变暖的态势,气温升高无疑将对包括城市在内的水文和生态系统产生深远的影响。同时,城市未来人口将持续增加,城市化进程继续加快,发展中国家和地区尤其如此(Grimm et al, 2008),城市的水文效应将愈加凸显。城市化改变了地形、地貌、地质条件,引起水文过程演变,造成更加频繁的极端气候事件,增大了城市暴雨洪涝风险(Hallegatte et al, 2013)。同时,城市化使生产、生活污废水增加,造成水质污染与水生态系统退化等环境问题(Grant et al, 2012; Peng et al, 2017)。城市人口急剧增长还会造成水资源供需关系紧张,城市供水安全面临新的挑战(Rogers, 2008)。城市水文效应以及城市水文学的相关研究对于指导城市规划建设、增强城市水安全和改善城市环境具有重要意义。
随着近代以来人类活动的加剧,人对自然水文过程的影响逐渐成为热点,人和水之间的互动逐步引起研究者的关注。Falkenmark(1997)提出要从人水交互的角度来认识水问题,引发了关于人水相互作用的宏观规律和分析框架的讨论。王浩等(2006)提出“自然—社会”二元水循环理论,从自然、社会两个系统来认识水循环过程,提出了驱动力二元化、循环路径二元化、结构和参数二元化、服务功能二元化的认知模式,辩证地认识自然系统和社会系统的相互关系,为协调人类用水和生态用水关系、合理开发利用水资源提供了理论基础(秦大庸等, 2014)。有关学者还从水资源管理的角度、制度分析与发展框架的角度等对研究人水相互影响进行了探索(Schlüter et al, 2007; Ostrom, 2009)。
Sivapalan等(2012)在前人的研究基础上,最终明确提出了社会水文学。社会水文学将人类和人类活动视为水循环动力的一部分,基于传统水文学及其交叉学科,重点关注人类系统与水文系统的反馈作用,研究“人—水”耦合系统及其协同演化动力学(Elshafei et al, 2014)。社会水文学提出以来,不同学者从不同的角度丰富了社会水文学的研究。Liu等(2014)提出了耦合演化分析的理论框架,确定了社会水文系统的要素结构、动态反馈和驱动机制,并在一些研究中得以应用(Han et al, 2017)。有些学者对典型流域的耦合演化情况进行案例分析(Kandasamy et al, 2014; Liu et al, 2015; 陆志翔等, 2015; Srinivasan, 2015),对不同流域进行对比并总结耦合演化规律的异同(Troy et al, 2015)。一些学者尝试基于社会学、经济学等学科的研究方法,对与水文系统相互作用的社会因子进行定量研究(Elshafei et al, 2016)。有些学者还尝试构建定量化的“人—水”耦合模型(Viglione et al, 2014; Elshafei et al, 2015; Chen et al, 2016),对系统协同演化规律进行刻画和预测。随着大数据和知识挖掘技术的发展,交叉学科的不断融合(Zlinszky et al, 2013; Shang et al, 2015; Wei et al, 2015),社会水文学的研究方法和研究领域不断创新(Wei et al, 2017)。
社会水文学的研究特点包括以下几方面：一是定量化研究(陆志翔等, 2016)。以往研究中对水文系统的定量刻画有较好的研究基础,对人类系统中社会因子的定量刻画,可更准确地理解和预测“人—水”耦合系统的协同演化。二是与其他学科的交叉(王雪梅等, 2016)。社会水文学注重与社会学、经济学、管理学等学科的交叉(Blume et al, 2016; Roobavannan et al, 2017),运用这些学科的研究方法,定量研究社会因子。三是探究“人—水”耦合系统的相互作用(秦大庸等, 2014),并支持水资源可持续管理(陆志翔等, 2015),特别是不仅仅考虑人类活动对水循环的影响,也考虑人类对水文变化作出的调整和响应。
20世纪60年代以前,曾经积累了一些有关城市用水排水方面的工程实践和经验。随着此后工业化和城市化快速发展,带来了一些新的城市水文问题,利用传统的水文学理论和方法很难给出合理的分析和解释,由此产生了较为系统的有关城市水文问题的研究。然而,由于当时科学认识和技术水平的局限性,许多研究一般仅仅基于试验观测以及历史数据分析等,因为早期的观测精度和时空分辨率较低,这些研究工作往往局限于城市化流域或市区等小尺度范围(Delleur, 2003; 刘家宏,等 2014; 张建云等, 2014)。近年来,随着遥感和地理信息系统等现代科学技术的广泛应用和分布式水文模型的快速发展,城市水文学研究进入高速发展阶段,并诞生了一系列城市水文模型。通过广泛开展水科学相关研究计划,提升观测和模拟技术水平,初步揭示了变化环境下的城市水循环演变机理和规律,探讨了城市水文效应并研究了城市水环境、水生态问题。然而,由于城市水环境水生态系统的持续恶化,城市水文学研究仍然面临着很大的挑战(Niemczynowicz, 1999; Sarma et al, 2016)。另一方面,全球气候变化加剧了城市水安全问题,城市极端降雨和洪涝灾害事件显著增加。当前,全球气候变化和快速城市化影响下的水循环响应机制研究有待深入,对于二者综合影响的应对措施研究方面仍待加强。变化环境下的城市水循环响应机制与城市水资源综合管理将成为未来城市水文学研究的重点方向(刘家宏等, 2014; 张建云等, 2014)。
城市水文学主要聚焦于城市水循环问题,作为水文学的一个分支学科,具有多学科交叉、综合性强的特点,涉及到水文学、水力学、环境科学、生态科学、气象学、城市规划等学科和水利、城建、环保、园林等部门,涉及到城市水循环、城市化水文效应、城市水文气象、城市供排水、城市防洪排涝、城市水资源与水环境问题以及城市水文模拟与预测预报等(Hall, 1984; Andrieu et al, 2004; 拜存有等, 2009)。早期的研究主要关注城市排水系统设计相关的水文学问题,进入21世纪,随着城市化进程不断加快,城市水文学面临更加复杂的城市水问题,进一步拓展了其研究范围,逐步扩展至城市化伴生的水环境与水生态效应等相关领域(Fletcher et al, 2013; 刘家宏等, 2014; 张建云等, 2014)。
社会水文学定性和定量地考虑经济、环境、制度、政策和意识等诸多社会因子,并将这些社会因子耦合在“人—水”系统中,成为内在的社会驱动力。学者提出的考虑政策、技术、经济、人口等社会驱动的社会水文学研究框架(Liu et al, 2014),定义了社会水文学的研究要素和系统边界。学者提出的“人类—洪水”动态反馈模型框架考虑了社会认知、堤防技术等因素,研究“堤防效应”和“适应效应”带来的复杂反馈过程(Di Baldassarre et al, 2013; O'Connell et al, 2013)。有学者聚焦意识、态度、信任等社会因子,分析公众应对风险文化、洪水危害和经济发展的相互作用(Viglione et al, 2014)。Elshafei等(2014)提出了用“社群灵敏度”来定量刻画“人—水”系统的回馈过程,并在不同流域取得了较好的模拟效果(van Emmerik et al, 2014; Elshafei et al, 2015)。相比传统水文学中水文系统和人类系统的相对独立,社会因子在社会水文学中得到了重视和表达。但现有的研究普遍存在定量研究不足、定量关系物理性不足、方程与实际问题尺度不匹配、社会因子数据难以获取等困难(Sivapalan et al, 2015),有待进一步深入研究。还有学者为改进对社会决策过程的刻画,定义了表征政策决策者进行耕地—节水政策调控意愿的“决策者敏感度”概念,对政策变量进行结构化定量表达,从而实现对政策演变过程的动态模拟(刘烨等, 2016)。
在资料相对完整的典型流域进行案例研究,是对“人—水”耦合系统研究的有效探索和示范。根据可获取资料的多少,不同学者因地制宜地分析“人—水”耦合系统协同演化的特征和规律,极大地丰富了社会水文学的研究。Kandasamy等(2014)在资料相对丰富的墨累达令河流域,研究了农业灌溉和生态环境保护之间的“钟摆现象”,用实例有效地证实和刻画了“人—水”耦合系统的互馈作用和演化过程,为其他流域的案例研究提供了分析的范式和方法。近年来,国内外学者在塔里木河(Liu et al, 2015)、黑河(Lu et al, 2015)、基西米河(Chen et al, 2016)等不同流域开展了案例研究,特别是对“人—水”矛盾较为突出的干旱区流域进行研究。今后应继续收集不同来源的资料数据,进一步加强对不同流域的研究,丰富社会水文学的研究案例库。
基于不同的流域案例,对不同流域进行对比研究,分析在不同气候条件和人类社会条件下,以及在不同时间和空间尺度上,“人—水”系统协同演化的相同点和不同点,有利于更好地发现和总结“人—水”耦合系统演化机理和特征,为“人—水”耦合系统模型提供依据。有学者对比了美国、西班牙和智利的三个不同流域,分析了“灌溉效率悖论”现象(Scott et al, 2014)。有学者交叉对比了美国、玻利维亚、斐济和新西兰不同经济和政治条件下人类对水资源问题解决路径的偏好差异(Wutich et al, 2014)。有学者通过模型模拟的方法对比了不同政治条件和社会发展条件下的“人—水”耦合系统协同演化特征(Elshafei et al, 2016)。今后应加强国内外学者的沟通合作,建立社会水文学案例数据库,在不同时空尺度上对比和研究“人—水”系统演化特征。
模型模拟是研究系统演化规律特征、作用机理和进行预测的重要工具。基于社群灵敏度的“人—水”系统耦合模型的提出,是建立定量的“人—水”系统耦合模型的重要尝试,其在不同流域的运用证明了定量模型刻画“人—水”系统演化特征的可行性。有关学者还基于此模型进行了参数的不确定性分析,总结了“人—水”系统演化过程中的关键影响因子(Elshafei et al, 2016)。有学者以新疆巴音郭勒州为例,建立了包含灌溉面积、灌溉用水、政策组合、环境评价的“人—水”耦合模型,分析了灌溉效率现象的机理,并对比了不同政策组合下的“人—水”系统演变特征(刘烨等, 2016)。有学者建立了“人—水”系统耦合模型,用于研究Maya Collapse中水文变异性对系统演化的作用(Kuil et al, 2016)。这些模型尝试用定量方法对“人—水”系统的演化进行模拟和预测,具有重要的意义,但也存在参数选取困难、方程机理性不足等问题,模型的物理性有待加强,预测的不确定性也有待进一步分析。
作为研究城市水循环的一门学科,城市化所带来的水问题,都是城市水文学的研究对象。具体涉及到城市化对城市水热循环过程、城市暴雨洪涝、水生态环境以及水资源等方面的影响机制,研究内容包括城市水文气象变化归因、洪涝灾害预测预报、水污染事件防控、景观生态系统建设和城市雨洪资源化利用与管理等(刘家宏等, 2014)。城市化主要影响之一是不透水表面增加,使城市水循环时空特征发生变化,进而改变了城市水量平衡,引起局部降水增加和蒸发量减少(刘珍环等, 2011)。城市的横向扩张和纵向发展改变了城市小气候特征,自然水循环过程受到干扰,蒸散发过程发生变化,降雨入渗量减少,地表径流量增加,地下径流以及地表地下的水量交换减少(张建云等, 2014)。
有关城市化对降雨的影响研究结果表明,城市化对降水的影响主要表现为降水的时空分布、降雨频次等发生改变(Shepherd, 2005; 徐光来等, 2010; Yan et al, 2016),如市区及其下风向一定距离内的降水强度比郊区大(Shepherd et al, 2002; 薛丽芳, 2009; Wang et al, 2015; Zhong, Qian et al, 2015);降水时空分布趋势明显,受下垫面变化及地形等因素影响较大(Wang et al, 2012; Zhong, Yang, 2015);城市化导致夏季易形成短历时的低频降雨(陈秀洪等, 2017);城市化对降水的影响也具有季节性,冬季受城市化降水影响较为显著(Wang et al, 2009; Kug et al, 2013)。蒸散发是水循环过程的重要环节,自然条件下的蒸散发比例较大,城市化造成不透水面增加、使蒸发量减少,城市水热过程、空气流动机制等发生巨大变化,对蒸散发也造成了较大影响(黄国如等, 2011; 张建云, 2012; Schirmer et al, 2013; 张建云等, 2014)。水文过程机制的改变是城市化影响的主要方面,由于不透水面积增加,地表截留、蒸发、下渗等减少,产流量增加;同时,由于城市建设改变下垫面分布,城市汇流路径发生改变,不透水面的分布对城市河湖连通性也产生了一定影响(Han et al, 2009; Schueler et al, 2009; Ebrahimian et al, 2016; Pumo et al, 2017)。目前,城市化对于地下水文过程的影响方面,由于研究问题的角度不同,相关结论仍存在一定的争议。有学者分析地表产汇流变化的结果表明,随着城市不透水面积增加,地表水下渗量减少,从而使地下径流减少;但也有研究结果显示,城市排水管网的渗漏、人为补给以及各种调控措施可能会增加地下径流量(Lerner, 2002; Del Campo et al, 2014; Minnig et al, 2017)。
最近十几年来,由于全球城市洪涝灾害事件频发,城市化与洪涝灾害的关系得到越来越多的关注(Jiang et al, 2018)。城市化使洪涝灾害的成灾条件发生变化,主要包括孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体等几个方面的变化(Jha et al, 2012; 徐宗学等, 2017)。在孕灾环境方面,由于硬化表面的透水性能变差,自然产汇流过程遭到破坏,加之排水系统管网化和河道渠化导致汇流速度加快,峰现时间提前;同时城市建设与水争地,侵占河湖湿地,区域雨水滞蓄能力和汇流连通性降低;而城市微地形和人为因素也容易诱发城市内涝,如下凹式立交桥下易形成积水洼地,雨水口的意外堵塞往往成为城市区域性洪涝的主要因素(徐宗学等, 2017)。在致灾因子方面,主要表现为城市化使降雨形成条件和特征改变,极端暴雨发生概率增大,城市洪涝灾害风险也随之增加。在承灾体方面,主要表现在城市人口、财富和资源高度集中,一旦发生极端暴雨洪涝事件,除了直接的人员伤亡和经济损失外,城市基础设施如道路、电力、通信等被破坏将造成次生灾害,其影响往往更为持久和严重(张建云等, 2014; 刘子龙等, 2015)。
城市发展对生态环境会产生显著影响,一些研究开始关注城市化与生态环境之间的关系(Walsh et al, 2005; Wenger et al, 2009; 孙艳伟等, 2012)。城市化改变了区域地形、地貌和地质条件,造成城市水生态系统的物理、化学与生物特性发生变化,使河流生态环境面临被破坏的风险。如城市化表面植被覆盖面积减少,道路和屋面等硬化表面颗粒物和污染物直接进入水体,引起河道沉积和污染物聚集;城市河道的渠道化、截弯取直和棚盖作用造成河道生态功能严重弱化,河道景观消失,生态系统遭到破坏。随着城市化进程加快,城市化对于水资源的影响主要表现在随着城市规模和人口数量的快速增长,城市需水量、用水结构及效率等发生变化,加之日益突出的城市水环境问题造成的水质型缺水,导致城市水资源供需关系受到破坏,城市供水安全面临更大的挑战(United Nations, 2012; 张建云, 2012)。
城市化导致的城市水循环变化和水问题恶化引起了上述诸多研究和思考,人们开始关注于城市生态系统的健康发展和合理规划(张建云等, 2014),提出了一系列应对措施,如LID、BMPs、WSUD、SUDs等,在城市雨洪利用和水问题治理方面开展了大量的研究(Tedoldi et al, 2016; Eckart et al, 2017; Liu et al, 2017; Zhang et al, 2018)。中国在新型城镇化背景下,基于水生态文明理念,推行“海绵城市”建设,为城市高效、健康、可持续的发展奠定良好的基础。然而,前期的“海绵城市”建设具有“大干快上”的盲目性特点(夏军, 石卫, 等, 2017)。今后海绵城市建设必须立足于水文科学基本理论,以水文学为主要支点,结合环境、水利、市政、园林、建筑等多学科和多部门的知识和技术(徐宗学等, 2017),在对城市水循环机理的清晰认识的基础上,从全流域、水循环的高度开展顶层设计和工程建设(徐宗学等, 2016; 夏军, 张永勇, 等, 2017)。另外,由于“海绵城市”建设中一系列的人为改造作用将导致水文过程更加复杂,城市流域进一步碎片化为更小的单元,如何定量描述单元尺度的城市水文过程模拟以及与城市流域尺度进行耦合成为需要解决的难题(左其亭, 2016)。
(1) 社会水文学中的本构关系。构建“人—水”耦合系统模型的一个重大挑战在于社会因子的定量化研究和与社会因子相关的方程构建。确定社会因子的本构关系,对参数进行选取和敏感度分析,增强参数的物理性,对发展“人—水”耦合系统模型具有重要意义。
(2) 比较社会水文学。不同自然和社会条件下的流域,在“人—水”系统协同演化的过程中,表现出一定的相同点和不同点。识别和了解不同流域之间的异同点,利用基本的“气候—景观—人类活动”的术语来进行解释,能有效地发现和理解“人—水”系统演化的特征和机理。
(3) 交叉学科研究。对社会因子的刻画和对社会水文学中本构关系的研究,需要借助于社会学、经济学、管理学等学科的理论、研究范式和研究方法,获取更多有效数据,加强学科的交叉融合,更好地理解“人—水”系统的协同演化机理。
(4) 社会水文学的数据收集。完善历史分析,基于水文重建方法、“大数据”和知识挖掘技术、社会调研等,为社会水文学提供更多资料和数据,从而更合理有效地定量刻画社会因子,为模型的构建和模拟预测奠定基础。
(1) 城市化对水文过程的影响机理与模拟研究。建立新的观测体系,耦合多源信息,深入研究城市水文效应,总结相关规律;结合多源遥感数据,探究城市不透水面空间分布特征对城市产汇流规律及其响应机制的影响;城市水文模型中水文机理的深入研究和应用以及城市水文模型不确定性问题。
(2) 城市暴雨洪水监测与预测预警技术方法研究。城市暴雨临近预报技术和城市水文过程监测体系;开发多过程耦合、集成多种方法的城市水文模型,系统研究城市水循环规律和城市产汇流特征;缺资料和无资料信息条件下的城市雨洪模型参数化与不确定性评估以及集合预报方法。
(3) 城市雨洪管理和资源化利用技术研究。城市雨洪消减和雨水利用设施的科学布设与模拟技术,以及雨洪资源的处理与利用;城市雨水污染处理,包括初雨的收集处理系统、合流制管道的雨污分离系统等;城市雨洪管理体制、政策、法律、法规的研究以及新型雨洪管理模式的应用和推广。
(4) 城市水文学相关的跨学科交叉研究。城市水文学与大气科学交叉,开展区域“城市化—气候变化—水文过程”耦合机理研究,将城市水文学与生态科学、环境科学等学科相结合,研究城市河流健康、城市生态系统健康等;与城市规划、社会科学、人文科学等学科相结合,研究自然—社会二元城市水循环和城市水管理等。
(5) 气候变化对城市水文过程的影响研究。气候变化背景下城市极端事件的发展特征和变化规律;气候变化和城市化综合作用下的城市水循环变化机理;气候变化下的城市水安全(洪涝灾害、水资源短缺、水生态环境破坏等)问题。
基于传统水文科学和交叉学科的“人—水”系统耦合演变的机理研究将成为社会水文学研究的热点和关键点。进一步挖掘不同来源的数据和资料,丰富不同流域的社会水文学案例研究,并对不同自然和社会条件下的流域在不同时间尺度和空间尺度上进行对比研究,有利于揭示“人—水”系统协同演变机理。采用不同学科的研究方法和理论,对社会因子进行更好地定量刻画,增强模型中社会部分方程的机理性和参数的物理性,能有效提高模型的模拟和预测能力。在机理性和预测能力更强的模型基础上,用“人—水”系统协同演化理论和结果,预测指导水资源管理和其他与水资源相关的社会经济规划,也是社会水文学的重要方向。
结合新技术、新方法开展城市化水文过程的演化机理研究和城市雨洪精细化模拟是当今研究的热点,如多源遥感技术能提供大范围、多时相、高精度的城市表面信息,考虑城市下垫面异质性特征的水文水动力学耦合模拟可更加全面地描述城市水文过程,基于高性能计算技术则能进一步推动精细化模拟和快速洪涝预测预报。随着全球气候变化影响加深,城市洪涝问题的进一步凸显,城市水文气象极值的定量描述、基于低影响开发和“海绵城市”技术的雨洪资源利用及其水文响应特征方面的研究,将为城市洪涝问题科学化解决提供依据,同时,基于多学科、多部门的交叉和协同研究,将为更好地解决城市水问题、保障城市水安全奠定基础。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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城市水文学是水文学的一个重要分支,20世纪80年代正式独立成为一门学科.城市水文学发展早期重点关注城市供排水工程设计等水文计算问题.随着全球城市化进程的推进,城市水文过程演化及其伴生效应日益凸显,城市水循环机理发生了深刻变化.城市＂雨岛效应＂、＂干/湿岛效应＂等现象日益明显,城市暴雨内涝、水污染等事件频繁发生,这些新问题使城市水文学研究出现了新任务和新领域.目前城市水文学基础研究大体可分为两大主要方向：城市化的水文过程及其伴生效应识别与描述;城市水文过程机理解析与模拟计算.城市化的水文效应方面的研究较多,对＂雨岛效应＂产生机理的认识也较统一,但对城市＂干/湿岛效应＂的研究结论在不同地区并不一致.城市化伴生效应方面,近些年对水环境以及水生态效应的研究得到了重视和加强,建立了城市水质模型和生态承载力理论等.城市水文过程机理解析与模拟方面,＂自然侧＂的降水-产汇流研究比较系统,已建立了包括城市屋面、硬化地面、城市绿地等复杂城市下垫面的降水-蒸发-径流定量模拟模型;＂社会侧＂对城市用水规律和需求预测研究比较充分,然而对城市人工取用水的耗水机理研究较少.总的来看,城市水文学未来的发展需从城市耗用水机理、城市水文极端事件模拟与综合应对,以及城市群叠加水文效应的定量评估和预测等方面寻求突破.
Review on urban hydrology [J].https://doi.org/10.1360/n972014-00327 URL [本文引用: 6] 摘要
城市水文学是水文学的一个重要分支,20世纪80年代正式独立成为一门学科.城市水文学发展早期重点关注城市供排水工程设计等水文计算问题.随着全球城市化进程的推进,城市水文过程演化及其伴生效应日益凸显,城市水循环机理发生了深刻变化.城市＂雨岛效应＂、＂干/湿岛效应＂等现象日益明显,城市暴雨内涝、水污染等事件频繁发生,这些新问题使城市水文学研究出现了新任务和新领域.目前城市水文学基础研究大体可分为两大主要方向：城市化的水文过程及其伴生效应识别与描述;城市水文过程机理解析与模拟计算.城市化的水文效应方面的研究较多,对＂雨岛效应＂产生机理的认识也较统一,但对城市＂干/湿岛效应＂的研究结论在不同地区并不一致.城市化伴生效应方面,近些年对水环境以及水生态效应的研究得到了重视和加强,建立了城市水质模型和生态承载力理论等.城市水文过程机理解析与模拟方面,＂自然侧＂的降水-产汇流研究比较系统,已建立了包括城市屋面、硬化地面、城市绿地等复杂城市下垫面的降水-蒸发-径流定量模拟模型;＂社会侧＂对城市用水规律和需求预测研究比较充分,然而对城市人工取用水的耗水机理研究较少.总的来看,城市水文学未来的发展需从城市耗用水机理、城市水文极端事件模拟与综合应对,以及城市群叠加水文效应的定量评估和预测等方面寻求突破.
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城市不透水表面的水环境效应研究进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.03.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
快速城市化导致的生态环境变化是当前城市生态环境研究的热点问题，而城市化的水环境效应则是其中的重要方向之一。本文通过梳理城市化过程对水环境效应的影响机制，总结和归纳城市不透水表面的水环境效应研究的核心内容与主要方法，指出当前城市化过程的水环境效应研究所面临的诸多难点，并对未来研究趋势进行展望。研究认为，城市化的显著特征之一是不透水表面的不断增加，以不透水表面指数(ISA)为表征的地表覆被参数日益受到城市土地利用/覆被变化研究的重视，成为城市化过程水环境效应研究的热点指标。不透水表面对水文效应的影响主要表现在两个方面，即短时间内增大降雨的径流量，长时间内增加洪水频率和径流总量。同时，不透水表面对水质的影响主要表现为增加水体的非点源污染负荷，目前的研究方法主要依靠城市水文水质监测及模型模拟，对水环境效应的影响机制方面尚缺乏对非点源污染负荷影响机制的深入研究，同时还需要进一步构建适用于城市地区的水文水质模型。可以预见，不透水表面指数将会是城市化过程水环境效应研究的重要参数，并将推动城市土地利用/覆被变化的水环境效应研究向参数简单化与精确化方向发展。
Progress and perspective of the research on hydrological effects of urban impervious surface on water environment [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.03.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
快速城市化导致的生态环境变化是当前城市生态环境研究的热点问题，而城市化的水环境效应则是其中的重要方向之一。本文通过梳理城市化过程对水环境效应的影响机制，总结和归纳城市不透水表面的水环境效应研究的核心内容与主要方法，指出当前城市化过程的水环境效应研究所面临的诸多难点，并对未来研究趋势进行展望。研究认为，城市化的显著特征之一是不透水表面的不断增加，以不透水表面指数(ISA)为表征的地表覆被参数日益受到城市土地利用/覆被变化研究的重视，成为城市化过程水环境效应研究的热点指标。不透水表面对水文效应的影响主要表现在两个方面，即短时间内增大降雨的径流量，长时间内增加洪水频率和径流总量。同时，不透水表面对水质的影响主要表现为增加水体的非点源污染负荷，目前的研究方法主要依靠城市水文水质监测及模型模拟，对水环境效应的影响机制方面尚缺乏对非点源污染负荷影响机制的深入研究，同时还需要进一步构建适用于城市地区的水文水质模型。可以预见，不透水表面指数将会是城市化过程水环境效应研究的重要参数，并将推动城市土地利用/覆被变化的水环境效应研究向参数简单化与精确化方向发展。
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基于GIS的城市建筑内涝损失和风险定量计算方法 [J].https://doi.org/10.11936/bjutxb2014040067 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
从城市内涝的致灾因子、承灾体暴露性和承灾体脆弱性属性出发，研 究基于GIS的城市建筑内涝损失及风险定量计算方法。方法整合了来自内涝模拟淹水深度、建筑物空间分布以及其脆弱性属性多方面风险影响因素，对城市内涝风 险进行定量评估。对北京左安东路片区的建筑内涝损失计算实例表明，该计算方法能建立单个建筑物尺度、具有空间分布属性的内涝损失和风险量化结果，为工程减 灾和制定内涝管理对策提供基础依据。
Approach of building content damage assessment and risk quantification by urban local flooding based on GIS [J].https://doi.org/10.11936/bjutxb2014040067 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
从城市内涝的致灾因子、承灾体暴露性和承灾体脆弱性属性出发，研 究基于GIS的城市建筑内涝损失及风险定量计算方法。方法整合了来自内涝模拟淹水深度、建筑物空间分布以及其脆弱性属性多方面风险影响因素，对城市内涝风 险进行定量评估。对北京左安东路片区的建筑内涝损失计算实例表明，该计算方法能建立单个建筑物尺度、具有空间分布属性的内涝损失和风险量化结果，为工程减 灾和制定内涝管理对策提供基础依据。
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社会水文学研究进展 [J].[本文引用: 1] 摘要
为了推动新兴学科——社会水文学的发展及其在流域水资源管理中的应用,有必要对有关社会水文学的研究工作进行阶段性总结,并对未来的研究方向进行展望。回顾了水文学的发展历程,理解社会水文学产生的背景,阐述社会水文学的概念及其内涵;辨析其与传统水文学、生态水文学和水文经济学等学科在研究内容、方法和理论等方面的异同点;介绍社会水文学的研究进展:本阶段着重于制度、政策和文化等社会因子在水文研究中的表达以及流域示范研究的开展,但大多数研究仍基于传统水文学背景、共进化背景或者水资源管理背景,社会水文学的理论和方法还不够成熟。未来应从以下方面加强社会水文学研究:1深入开展社会水文学社会部分的定量研究、综合历史分析和水文重建方法、充分利用现有不同流域案例促进过程社会水文学、历史社会水文学和比较社会水文学研究;2开展社会水文系统社会驱动力的研究,探寻社会水文学的动力机制;3引入非线性动力学理论刻画人-水耦合系统的复杂反馈机制,提高社会水文学的普适化数学表述;4积极推进"大数据"和知识挖掘技术在社会水文学研究中的应用。
Progress on socio-hydrology [J].[本文引用: 1] 摘要
为了推动新兴学科——社会水文学的发展及其在流域水资源管理中的应用,有必要对有关社会水文学的研究工作进行阶段性总结,并对未来的研究方向进行展望。回顾了水文学的发展历程,理解社会水文学产生的背景,阐述社会水文学的概念及其内涵;辨析其与传统水文学、生态水文学和水文经济学等学科在研究内容、方法和理论等方面的异同点;介绍社会水文学的研究进展:本阶段着重于制度、政策和文化等社会因子在水文研究中的表达以及流域示范研究的开展,但大多数研究仍基于传统水文学背景、共进化背景或者水资源管理背景,社会水文学的理论和方法还不够成熟。未来应从以下方面加强社会水文学研究:1深入开展社会水文学社会部分的定量研究、综合历史分析和水文重建方法、充分利用现有不同流域案例促进过程社会水文学、历史社会水文学和比较社会水文学研究;2开展社会水文系统社会驱动力的研究,探寻社会水文学的动力机制;3引入非线性动力学理论刻画人-水耦合系统的复杂反馈机制,提高社会水文学的普适化数学表述;4积极推进"大数据"和知识挖掘技术在社会水文学研究中的应用。
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黑河流域近两千年人—水—生态演变研究进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.03.0396 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>理解流域历史时期的人—水—生态演变过程和规律,对其当前和未来的管理规划极为重要。通过梳理近几十年来有关学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域过去2 000年的水环境、人类活动、生态环境演变及其耦合研究等方面的成果,发现单个方面的研究均已较为普遍和成熟,并且积累了大量的素材和数据,但是缺乏以流域为单元,从长时间尺度综合考虑人—水—生态相互作用,定量分析人—水—生态协同演化过程的研究成果。今后的研究,一是应当着重于数据挖掘方法的探索,对已有成果进一步挖掘并进行对比和校正,构建一套长时间序列的可靠的人类活动、水文和生态数据集;二是应当着重于动力学模型的构建,增加生态—水文系统与人类活动的互馈机制描述,刻画人—水—生态的协同演化过程,从而达到通过揭示流域过去2 000年的人—水—生态协同演化过程,为流域当前和未来的管理提供历史镜鉴,为国内外的其他类似流域提供参考。社会水文学的提出无疑将极大地促进流域人—水—生态演变研究的发展。</p>
Advances in the study on the human-water-ecology evolution in the past two thousand years in Heihe River Basin [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.03.0396 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>理解流域历史时期的人—水—生态演变过程和规律,对其当前和未来的管理规划极为重要。通过梳理近几十年来有关学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域过去2 000年的水环境、人类活动、生态环境演变及其耦合研究等方面的成果,发现单个方面的研究均已较为普遍和成熟,并且积累了大量的素材和数据,但是缺乏以流域为单元,从长时间尺度综合考虑人—水—生态相互作用,定量分析人—水—生态协同演化过程的研究成果。今后的研究,一是应当着重于数据挖掘方法的探索,对已有成果进一步挖掘并进行对比和校正,构建一套长时间序列的可靠的人类活动、水文和生态数据集;二是应当着重于动力学模型的构建,增加生态—水文系统与人类活动的互馈机制描述,刻画人—水—生态的协同演化过程,从而达到通过揭示流域过去2 000年的人—水—生态协同演化过程,为流域当前和未来的管理提供历史镜鉴,为国内外的其他类似流域提供参考。社会水文学的提出无疑将极大地促进流域人—水—生态演变研究的发展。</p>
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流域“自然-社会”二元水循环理论框架 [J].
<p>流域水循环的“自然-社会”二元演变是导致近年来水问题和水危机的本质原因. 实现缺水地区供用水、水环境、水生态安全的国家目标， 必须依靠以流域水循环为统一基础的水资源科学调控， 其首要的科学基础是对高强度人类活动干扰下的流域水循环与水资源演变的内在机理及其规律的认知. 本文从我国二元水循环演进历史、流域二元水循环理论、典型流域水资源演变规律、流域二元水循环模式与概念模型4 个方面进行探讨， 为变化环境下水循环的基本认知模式、现代环境下水资源衰减规律等提供研究参考.</p>
Theoretical framework of dualistic nature-social water cycle [J].
<p>流域水循环的“自然-社会”二元演变是导致近年来水问题和水危机的本质原因. 实现缺水地区供用水、水环境、水生态安全的国家目标， 必须依靠以流域水循环为统一基础的水资源科学调控， 其首要的科学基础是对高强度人类活动干扰下的流域水循环与水资源演变的内在机理及其规律的认知. 本文从我国二元水循环演进历史、流域二元水循环理论、典型流域水资源演变规律、流域二元水循环模式与概念模型4 个方面进行探讨， 为变化环境下水循环的基本认知模式、现代环境下水资源衰减规律等提供研究参考.</p>
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气候变化和人类活动对水文循环影响研究进展 [J].Review for impacts of climate change and human activities on water cycle [J]. |
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全球气候变化与塔里木盆地古城绿洲演变关系 [J].The augment on the relations between the global environment changes and the evolution of the ancient oasis towns of Tarim Basin [J]. |
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城市化生态水文效应 [J].
研究城市化的生态水文效应对于指导河流的保护与生态修复实践具有重要意义。基于河流径流情势在维持河道生态系统完整性方面的重要性,在分析现有生态水文指标体系的特征及可操作性的基础上,建立了以径流历时曲线、洪峰流量频率超出曲线和<em>T</em><sub>0.5</sub>(区域径流超出天然状态下重现期为0.5年的降水所产生的洪峰流量的时间占区域有径流总时间的比例)为代表的生态水文指标体系。利用SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)来模拟不同城市化程度下的降雨径流过程,并利用所建立的生态水文指标体系模拟其生态水文效应。结果表明:城市化程度越高,其时段流量幅度及历时越大,洪峰流量及发生的频率越大,<em>T</em><sub>0.5</sub>越小。城市化通过改变径流的大小、历时及频率,改变了水域生态系统完整性与多样性,进而对河道生态系统产生了负面影响。
Eco-hydrological impacts of urbanization [J].
研究城市化的生态水文效应对于指导河流的保护与生态修复实践具有重要意义。基于河流径流情势在维持河道生态系统完整性方面的重要性,在分析现有生态水文指标体系的特征及可操作性的基础上,建立了以径流历时曲线、洪峰流量频率超出曲线和<em>T</em><sub>0.5</sub>(区域径流超出天然状态下重现期为0.5年的降水所产生的洪峰流量的时间占区域有径流总时间的比例)为代表的生态水文指标体系。利用SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)来模拟不同城市化程度下的降雨径流过程,并利用所建立的生态水文指标体系模拟其生态水文效应。结果表明:城市化程度越高,其时段流量幅度及历时越大,洪峰流量及发生的频率越大,<em>T</em><sub>0.5</sub>越小。城市化通过改变径流的大小、历时及频率,改变了水域生态系统完整性与多样性,进而对河道生态系统产生了负面影响。
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基于二元水循环模式的水资源评价理论方法 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2006.12.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
国内外流域水资源评价方法是随 着水资源稀缺性的逐渐增强而不断发展的。时至今日,传统的水资源评价方法在描述人类活动干扰和满足不同层次水资源规划要求方面面临严峻挑战。本文提出了水 资源全口径层次化动态评价方法,即以降水为资源评价的全口径通量,遵照有效性、可控性和可再生性原则对降水的资源结构进行解析,实现广义水资源、狭义水资 源、径流性水资源和国民经济可利用量的层次化评价。在手段上,构建了由分布式水循环模拟模型与集总式水资源调配模型耦合而成的二元水资源评价模型,并将下 垫面变化和人工取用水作为模型变量以实现动态评价。
Theory and methodology of water resources assessment based on dualistic water cycle model [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2006.12.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
国内外流域水资源评价方法是随 着水资源稀缺性的逐渐增强而不断发展的。时至今日,传统的水资源评价方法在描述人类活动干扰和满足不同层次水资源规划要求方面面临严峻挑战。本文提出了水 资源全口径层次化动态评价方法,即以降水为资源评价的全口径通量,遵照有效性、可控性和可再生性原则对降水的资源结构进行解析,实现广义水资源、狭义水资 源、径流性水资源和国民经济可利用量的层次化评价。在手段上,构建了由分布式水循环模拟模型与集总式水资源调配模型耦合而成的二元水资源评价模型,并将下 垫面变化和人工取用水作为模型变量以实现动态评价。
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基于文献计量的社会水文学发展态势分析 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.11.1205 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会水文学是一门研究人水耦合系统动态变化规律、服务水资源管理的交叉学科,通过对Web of Science数据库检索到的论文进行文献计量分析,系统综述社会水文学的国际研究发展态势和趋势.分析结果显示,广义的社会水文学研究涉及水资源、环境科学、土木工程、地球科学、环境工程、农学、环境研究、生态学、气象与大气科学、地理学等.国际上长期关注水资源管理、水质、农业灌溉和水政策等问题,不同时期研究的问题热点根据时代发展的水资源管理需求有所变化,不同国家根据国内水资源情势,其关注点也有所不同.狭义的社会水文学研究主要涉及城市化和农村发展的水需求和水安全等问题,强调通过有效的水文模型预测来支持科学管理决策.该学科的发展将会促进人类对水资源的可持续管理和利用,更好地解决人类社会面临的水问题.
Tendency analysis of socio-hydrology research based on bibliometrics [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.11.1205 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会水文学是一门研究人水耦合系统动态变化规律、服务水资源管理的交叉学科,通过对Web of Science数据库检索到的论文进行文献计量分析,系统综述社会水文学的国际研究发展态势和趋势.分析结果显示,广义的社会水文学研究涉及水资源、环境科学、土木工程、地球科学、环境工程、农学、环境研究、生态学、气象与大气科学、地理学等.国际上长期关注水资源管理、水质、农业灌溉和水政策等问题,不同时期研究的问题热点根据时代发展的水资源管理需求有所变化,不同国家根据国内水资源情势,其关注点也有所不同.狭义的社会水文学研究主要涉及城市化和农村发展的水需求和水安全等问题,强调通过有效的水文模型预测来支持科学管理决策.该学科的发展将会促进人类对水资源的可持续管理和利用,更好地解决人类社会面临的水问题.
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海绵城市建设中若干水文学问题的研讨 [J].https://doi.org/10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2017.01.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
针对海绵城市建设面临的问题和挑战，提出了以水循环为纽带、将城市暴雨-径流、水污染治理和城市生态绿地、湿地建设与市政建设(排水、排污)规划管理联系为一体的“城市水系统”的概念与方法。基于水文学原理，分析了目前海绵城市建设中最为关键、也是质疑较多的年径流总量控制率概念，指出现行的年径流总量控制率的计算实质是年降水总量控制率。如果回归到水文学概念，年径流总量控制率就必须与水文系统响应的增益因子，即径流系数建立内在的联系；需要研究径流系数并非常数，而是与土壤湿度、降水强度和下垫面组合的时变非线性理论问题。此外，对比分析了现行海绵城市建设低影响开发措施和改进后的年径流总量控制率之间的关系，深入剖析了“城市看海”发生的条件与风险。最后就海绵城市建设与规划的水文学基础亟待改进的方面：径流系数非线性、区分自然条件和城市化后的蓄水量变化的差别、考虑河湖水系调蓄和陆地蒸散发、与流域大海绵调控结合、风险管理等，进行了研讨，并提出了未来我国海绵城市建设的若干建议。
Discussion of several hydrological issues regarding sponge city construction [J].https://doi.org/10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2017.01.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
针对海绵城市建设面临的问题和挑战，提出了以水循环为纽带、将城市暴雨-径流、水污染治理和城市生态绿地、湿地建设与市政建设(排水、排污)规划管理联系为一体的“城市水系统”的概念与方法。基于水文学原理，分析了目前海绵城市建设中最为关键、也是质疑较多的年径流总量控制率概念，指出现行的年径流总量控制率的计算实质是年降水总量控制率。如果回归到水文学概念，年径流总量控制率就必须与水文系统响应的增益因子，即径流系数建立内在的联系；需要研究径流系数并非常数，而是与土壤湿度、降水强度和下垫面组合的时变非线性理论问题。此外，对比分析了现行海绵城市建设低影响开发措施和改进后的年径流总量控制率之间的关系，深入剖析了“城市看海”发生的条件与风险。最后就海绵城市建设与规划的水文学基础亟待改进的方面：径流系数非线性、区分自然条件和城市化后的蓄水量变化的差别、考虑河湖水系调蓄和陆地蒸散发、与流域大海绵调控结合、风险管理等，进行了研讨，并提出了未来我国海绵城市建设的若干建议。
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中国海绵城市建设的水问题研究与展望 [J].Research and prospects of water problems in construction of sponge cities in China [J]. |
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绿洲农业开发与楼兰古国生态环境的变迁 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-4459.2001.01.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
楼兰地区的植被和气候是自第四纪地质时期继承下来的，并且逐渐趋于稳定。但在做作业历史时 期，楼兰古国却从一个繁荣的绿洲变成了不可逾越的荒漠，其影响的主要因素是绿洲农业的开发。本文以楼兰地区自然生态环境为背景，对战争胁迫下楼兰古国和塔 里木河中、上游地区西汉至唐朝绿洲农业的开发，及其对生态环境的影响进行了分析，论论了荒漠化发展的三个阶段，建立了“绿洲放心弃周期”理论模型。
Development of oasis agriculture and ecology environmental changes of Loulan Kindon [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-4459.2001.01.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
楼兰地区的植被和气候是自第四纪地质时期继承下来的，并且逐渐趋于稳定。但在做作业历史时 期，楼兰古国却从一个繁荣的绿洲变成了不可逾越的荒漠，其影响的主要因素是绿洲农业的开发。本文以楼兰地区自然生态环境为背景，对战争胁迫下楼兰古国和塔 里木河中、上游地区西汉至唐朝绿洲农业的开发，及其对生态环境的影响进行了分析，论论了荒漠化发展的三个阶段，建立了“绿洲放心弃周期”理论模型。
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城市化水文效应研究进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.12.018 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
受人类活动特别是城市化的影响,天然水文过程发生了显著变化。目前城市化的水文效应研究已经成为国际上的热点问题和前沿领域。文章回顾了国内外城市化过程所引起的水文效应研究现状,述评了现有研究方法和主要研究内容:①城市化对降水的影响具有地区差异和季节差异,其影响程度还存在争议,城市化降水效应机理有待研究;②城市化地区河网结构趋于简单,目前平原河网地区水系分级方法不明确;③不透水面变化改变长期径流量、水质以及暴雨洪水洪峰流量、洪峰过程,其定量关系的阈值需要确立;④变化下垫面条件下流域生态系统结构和功能,水文过程与生态过程耦合需要进一步研究。最后提出了存在问题和进一步研究的思路,以便作为城市水文学研究的参考。
Advance in hydrologic process response to urbanization [J].https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.12.018 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
受人类活动特别是城市化的影响,天然水文过程发生了显著变化。目前城市化的水文效应研究已经成为国际上的热点问题和前沿领域。文章回顾了国内外城市化过程所引起的水文效应研究现状,述评了现有研究方法和主要研究内容:①城市化对降水的影响具有地区差异和季节差异,其影响程度还存在争议,城市化降水效应机理有待研究;②城市化地区河网结构趋于简单,目前平原河网地区水系分级方法不明确;③不透水面变化改变长期径流量、水质以及暴雨洪水洪峰流量、洪峰过程,其定量关系的阈值需要确立;④变化下垫面条件下流域生态系统结构和功能,水文过程与生态过程耦合需要进一步研究。最后提出了存在问题和进一步研究的思路,以便作为城市水文学研究的参考。
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"城市看海"何时休: 兼论海绵城市功能与作用 [J].
洪涝灾害一直是自然灾害中发生最频繁、造成伤亡损失最严重的灾害之一。近年来,我国暴雨内涝问题十分严重,城市防洪排涝问题日趋突出。通过科学认识海绵城市的功能和作用,深入研究城市水循环,破解城市内涝的根本原因包括致灾因子的变化、孕灾环境的变化和承载体脆弱性的变化,这对于研究防洪减灾对策、解决城市洪涝问题、有效实施海绵城市建设具有重要的现实意义。
Farewell to urban flooding: A brief discussion on the functions and features of Sponge City [J].
洪涝灾害一直是自然灾害中发生最频繁、造成伤亡损失最严重的灾害之一。近年来,我国暴雨内涝问题十分严重,城市防洪排涝问题日趋突出。通过科学认识海绵城市的功能和作用,深入研究城市水循环,破解城市内涝的根本原因包括致灾因子的变化、孕灾环境的变化和承载体脆弱性的变化,这对于研究防洪减灾对策、解决城市洪涝问题、有效实施海绵城市建设具有重要的现实意义。
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水文科学研究进展的回顾与展望 [J].
对水文科学的研究现状、主要进展和发展趋势进行了系统深入的总结和分析,其结果表明,社会需求是水文科学发展的根本动力,技术进步是水文科学发展的源泉。水文科学不仅要研究地表水文过程,还要研究各圈层界面上水分和能量交换过程,不仅要研究水在运动转化过程中的物理过程,还要研究水中各种化学成分的化学过程,特别需要加强水在水文循环和运动中生物过程的研究,从而使水文学向生态水文学的方向迈进。目前,生态水文学、全球气候变化影响是水文学研究的热点领域之一。今后除了进一步继续完善和深化水文科学的理论体系,还要不断丰富水文科学的社会服务功能,为经济建设和社会发展提供科技支撑。
Progress in hydrological sciences: Past, present and future [J].
对水文科学的研究现状、主要进展和发展趋势进行了系统深入的总结和分析,其结果表明,社会需求是水文科学发展的根本动力,技术进步是水文科学发展的源泉。水文科学不仅要研究地表水文过程,还要研究各圈层界面上水分和能量交换过程,不仅要研究水在运动转化过程中的物理过程,还要研究水中各种化学成分的化学过程,特别需要加强水在水文循环和运动中生物过程的研究,从而使水文学向生态水文学的方向迈进。目前,生态水文学、全球气候变化影响是水文学研究的热点领域之一。今后除了进一步继续完善和深化水文科学的理论体系,还要不断丰富水文科学的社会服务功能,为经济建设和社会发展提供科技支撑。
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"城市看海": 城市水文学面临的挑战与机遇 [J].City “Sea Views”: Challenges and opportunities for urban hydrology [J]. |
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面向流域的城市化水文效应研究 [D].Study on basin-oriented hydrological effects of urbanization [D]. |
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城市化与城市水文学面临的问题 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1009-640X.2012.01.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
随着经济社会的快速发展,目前我国正处在城镇化快速发展的时期,由此引发的城市水问题愈发突出,相关研究需求也愈加迫切.本文初步分析了城市化对降水和极端暴雨、流域产汇流规律及洪水、需水、供水及水资源保障、水质水环境及水生态系统等方面的影响.在分析城市水文效应的基础上,从学科发展和应用的角度,提出了当前城市水文学需要重点研究的问题,如城市极端暴雨的成因分析、城市暴雨洪水计算方法、城市雨洪资源化应用方法和关键技术等.
The vital problems for the urbanization and urban hydrology today [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1009-640X.2012.01.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
随着经济社会的快速发展,目前我国正处在城镇化快速发展的时期,由此引发的城市水问题愈发突出,相关研究需求也愈加迫切.本文初步分析了城市化对降水和极端暴雨、流域产汇流规律及洪水、需水、供水及水资源保障、水质水环境及水生态系统等方面的影响.在分析城市水文效应的基础上,从学科发展和应用的角度,提出了当前城市水文学需要重点研究的问题,如城市极端暴雨的成因分析、城市暴雨洪水计算方法、城市雨洪资源化应用方法和关键技术等.
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关于中国北方水资源问题的再认识 [J].
特殊的地理地形和气候条件决定了中国洪涝干旱灾害频发。由于客观的禀赋条件,中国北方降水量小,水资源供需矛盾突出。在变化环境条件下,中国北方河川径流量呈现减少趋势,且随着经济社会的快速发展,区域需水较大幅度的增加,进一步加剧了北方水资源的供需矛盾;径流变化归因分析表明,人类活动导致的流域下垫面变化、工农业的快速发展及其他经济社会活动是北方河川径流减少的主要原因。实行最严格的水资源管理,加强节水型社会建设是解决北方水资源问题的根本出路。
A new perspective on water issues in North China [J].
特殊的地理地形和气候条件决定了中国洪涝干旱灾害频发。由于客观的禀赋条件,中国北方降水量小,水资源供需矛盾突出。在变化环境条件下,中国北方河川径流量呈现减少趋势,且随着经济社会的快速发展,区域需水较大幅度的增加,进一步加剧了北方水资源的供需矛盾;径流变化归因分析表明,人类活动导致的流域下垫面变化、工农业的快速发展及其他经济社会活动是北方河川径流减少的主要原因。实行最严格的水资源管理,加强节水型社会建设是解决北方水资源问题的根本出路。
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变化环境下城市水文学的发展与挑战: I. 城市水文效应 [J].
全球气候变化和快速城市化导致的城市水循环过程变化是当前城市水文学研究的热点问题。为综合理解城市水循环演变过程，结合城市水文学的发展历程，剖析水循环过程对快速城市化进程的响应机制。总结了国内外城市化水文效应的主要成果，包括城市化对水循环过程、洪涝灾害、水生态系统以及水资源的影响。系统归纳了城市化水文效应的评估方法和技术手段。针对现有研究中的不足，指出变化环境下城市化水文效应研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题，提出未来研究的重点方向，如城市化降水效应的机理、不透水面的分布及有效性评估、城市化与水生态系统的响应关系与综合城市水资源管理及需水预测等。
Development and challenges of urban hydrology in a changing environment: I: Hydrological response to urbanization [J].
全球气候变化和快速城市化导致的城市水循环过程变化是当前城市水文学研究的热点问题。为综合理解城市水循环演变过程，结合城市水文学的发展历程，剖析水循环过程对快速城市化进程的响应机制。总结了国内外城市化水文效应的主要成果，包括城市化对水循环过程、洪涝灾害、水生态系统以及水资源的影响。系统归纳了城市化水文效应的评估方法和技术手段。针对现有研究中的不足，指出变化环境下城市化水文效应研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题，提出未来研究的重点方向，如城市化降水效应的机理、不透水面的分布及有效性评估、城市化与水生态系统的响应关系与综合城市水资源管理及需水预测等。
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Not Available
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Socio-hydrological modelling: A review asking "why, what and how?" [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-443-2016 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences-insights from a community survey [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1230675 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This opinion paper summarizes the results of an online survey on the role of experimental work in the hydrological sciences. The 20 survey questions covered various topics, such as advancements, needs, potentials and challenges in the hydrological sciences, and also touched on the issue of data sharing and data publication. A total of 336 hydrologists with both modelling and experimental backgrounds participated.
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From channelization to restoration: Sociohydrologic modeling with changing community preferences in the Kissimmee River Basin, Florida [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018194 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract The Kissimmee River Basin (Florida, USA) underwent river channelization in the 1960s and subsequent restoration in the 1990s, revealing a shift in management emphasis from flood protection to wetland health. In this paper, this shift is hypothesized to result from changing human values and preferences, and a power differential between the more numerous and affluent upstream urban residents (who prioritize wetland restoration) and downstream rural residents (who prioritize flood protection). We develop a conceptual sociohydrologic model to simulate the interactions between community interests and hydrology. The modeling results show that flood intensity decreased after channelization, which reduced concern about flooding. However, channelization also led to a decrease in wetland storage, which caused an increase of wetland concern, especially among the urban residents. Eventually, the community sensitivity switched from favoring flood protection to favoring wetlands, and subsequent management strategies switched from channelization to restoration. Using the model, we project that the wetlands will be recovering for the next 20 years and community sensitivity will slowly go back to a neutral state. However, possible rainfall intensification in the future could return the community sensitivity to favoring flood protection again. The preferential increase of upstream population growth will raise the community's concern about wetlands and the preferential increase of downstream population growth will magnify concern about flooding. This study provides insight into the driving forces behind human-water interactions in the Kissimmee River Basin while simultaneously demonstrating the potential of sociohydrologic modeling to describe complex human-water coupled systems with simple concepts and equations.
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Impacts of urbanization on groundwater hydrodynamics and hydrochemistry of the Toluca Valley aquifer (Mexico) [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-013-3595-3 URL PMID: 24590229 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Toluca Valley is located on the high plains of Mexico, where there are significant industrial zones and large populations. Water needs are almost exclusively met by groundwater, which has brought about intense exploitation of the aquifer and indication of some contamination. The present study investigates the effect of urbanization, related to industrialization of the region, on groundwater in the central portion of the Toluca Valley aquifer--a zone with high population density and where the largest industrial park is located. A general decline in the groundwater level has been found over the years, at a rate of as much as 2.5 m/year. The appearance of a large drawdown cone was identified, indicating changes in the direction of groundwater flow. Also identified was the presence of several ground fissures, the location of which coincided with the drawdown cone. In hydrochemical terms, the water type is sodium-magnesium bicarbonate and this characteristic has not changed over time, although it has been possible to detect the presence of larger quantities of sulfates (up to 117 mg/L) and nitrates (up to 47 mg/L) in recent years, likely associated with contamination from industrial and urban wastewater. Factor analysis made it possible to identify ions that would characterize natural processes involving the acquisition of salts (HCO3 (-), Na(+), Mg(2+), and Si), as well as anthropic activities (SO4 (2-), NO3 (-), Cl(-), Ca(2+), and K(+)).
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The evolution of urban hydrology: Past, present, and future [J].https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2003)129:8(563) URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Socio-hydrology: Conceptualising human-flood interactions [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.
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Effective impervious area for runoff in urban watersheds [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10839 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Effective impervious area (EIA), or the portion of total impervious area (TIA) that is hydraulically connected to the storm sewer system, is an important parameter in determining actual urban runoff. EIA has implications in watershed hydrology, water quality, environment, and ecosystem services. The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the application of successive weighted least square (WLS) method to urban catchments with different sizes and various hydrologic conditions to determine EIA fraction. Other objectives are to develop insights on the data selection issues, EIA fraction, EIA/TIA ratio, and runoff source area patterns in urban catchments. The successive WLS method is applied to 50 urban catchments with different sizes from less than 1 ha to more than 2000 ha in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas, USA as well as Europe, Canada and Australia. The average, median, and standard deviation of EIA fractions for the 42 catchments with residential land uses are found to be 0.222, 0.200, and 0.113, respectively. These values for the EIA/TIA ratio in the same 42 catchments are 0.50, 0.48, and 0.21, respectively. While the EIA/TIA results indicate the importance of EIA, 95% prediction interval of the mean EIA/TIA is found to be 0.07 to 0.93, which shows that using an average value for this ratio in each land use to determine EIA from TIA in ungauged urban watersheds can be misleading. The successive WLS method was robust and is recommended for determining EIA in gauged urban catchments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Performance and implementation of low impact development-a review [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.254 URL PMID: 28704668 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Climate change, urbanization, and ecological concerns are all driving the need for new stormwater management strategies. The effects of urbanization are exaggerated by climate change and thus the development of innovative stormwater management techniques are necessary to mitigate these impacts. One emerging stormwater management philosophy is low impact development (LID). LID utilizes distributed stormwater controls (often green infrastructure) as well as green spaces and natural hydrologic features in order to bring the hydrology of urban catchments closer to pre-development conditions. The review provides a summary of the knowledge of LID as a stormwater management technique and climate change mitigation measure as well as the current state of research and implementation of this topic. In order to provide a better understanding of the extensive scope that should be considered for design of low impact developments, methods of optimization, modelling, monitoring and the performance of LID alternatives is covered. LID has been widely adopted and proven successful in many cases; however, there remains uncertainty of its benefits. This review brings together knowledge from many sources in order to provide an overview of LID and examine its performance and implementation.
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A model of the socio-hydrologic dynamics in a semiarid catchment: Isolating feedbacks in the coupled human-hydrology system [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017048 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract The challenge of sustainable freshwater management requires identification and characterization of the underlying components and dynamic interactions within the coupled human-hydrology system. This paper builds a model that captures the dynamic water balance evolution and coupled human response within the Lake Toolibin catchment in West Australia's wheatbelt region. Two subcatchments in different parts of the landscape were selected to examine the key emergent properties of the coupled socio-hydrology system over a 100 year period, by analyzing the two-way feedbacks of land use management (human system feedback) and land degradation (natural system feedback). Using a relatively simple parameterization of community sensitivity to land degradation within the model, we identified positive and negative feedbacks, the presence of threshold behavior, time scale differences between fast and slow moving variables, differences in time lags resulting from disparate resistance levels of the natural system, and the degree of adaptive learning inherent in the human system. Specifically, the valley floor subcatchment transitioned through four phases xpansion, contraction, recession, and recovery emonstrating a threshold shift in the human feedback after 60 years, while the upslope subcatchment appears to still be in the contraction phase, with no sign of reaching a threshold shift in 100 years. These results demonstrate that the model is capable of isolating the two-way feedbacks of the coupled system and has implications for resilience theory, suggesting that greater resistance in the underlying natural system counteracts the onset of a negative feedback loop and instigation of adaptive behaviors in the human system.
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A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: Identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2141-2014 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human–hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems – and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems – has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agricultural catchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupled system dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. The conceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a composite socioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity state variable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to a community's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one of the fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a Behavioural Response variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects land and water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. The framework makes a further contribution through the introduction of three macro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences in climate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In this way, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented and the parameterisation approach that would be taken in each case is discussed. Preliminary findings in the case studies lend support to the conceptual theories outlined in the framework. It is envisioned that the application of this framework across study sites and gradients will aid in developing our understanding of the fundamental interactions and feedbacks in such complex human–hydrology systems, and allow hydrologists to improve social–ecological systems modelling through better representation of human feedbacks on hydrological processes.
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Sensitivity of emergent sociohydrologic dynamics to internal system properties and external sociopolitical factors: Implications for water management [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017944 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
It is increasingly acknowledged that effective management of water resources requires a holistic understanding of the coevolving dynamics inherent in the coupled human-hydrology system. One of the fundamental information gaps concerns the sensitivity of coupled system feedbacks to various endogenous system properties and exogenous societal contexts. This paper takes a previously calibrated sociohydrology model and applies an idealized implementation, in order to: (i) explore the sensitivity of emergent dynamics resulting from bidirectional feedbacks to assumptions regarding (a) internal system properties that control the internal dynamics of the coupled system and (b) the external sociopolitical context; and (ii) interpret the results within the context of water resource management decision making. The analysis investigates feedback behavior in three ways, (a) via a global sensitivity analysis on key parameters and assessment of relevant model outputs, (b) through a comparative analysis based on hypothetical placement of the catchment along various points on the international sociopolitical gradient, and (c) by assessing the effects of various direct management intervention scenarios. Results indicate the presence of optimum windows that might offer the greatest positive impact per unit of management effort. Results further advocate management tools that encourage an adaptive learning, community-based approach with respect to water management, which are found to enhance centralized policy measures. This paper demonstrates that it is possible to use a place-based sociohydrology model to make abstractions as to the dynamics of bidirectional feedback behavior, and provide insights as to the efficacy of water management tools under different circumstances.
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Society's interaction with the water cycle: A conceptual framework for a more holistic approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669709492046 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper takes as its starting point today''s paradoxical situation where a global water crisis is threatening a world in which water illiteracy is widespread among those expected to cope with that crisis. This creates a huge communication challenge for hydrologists, having to brief decision makers, diplomats and politicians in a manner that is simplistic without being water-reductionistic. The paper proposes some simple explanatory models, to be used for explaining and visualizing fundamental man/water interactions. It also discusses environmental sustainability criteria and their consequences in terms of the capacity to support water dependent populations. Large stress is put on land/water interactions. The paper ends with a conceptual framework based on the water cycle, distinguishing between rural and urban water use, water structures for mobilizing water for such uses, side effects, and key points for societal control mechanisms.
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Understanding, management and modelling of urban hydrology and its consequences for receiving waters: A state of the art [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.09.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Urban hydrology has evolved to improve the way urban runoff is managed for flood protection, public health and environmental protection. There have been significant recent advances in the measurement and prediction of urban rainfall, with technologies such as radar and microwave networks showing promise. The ability to predict urban hydrology has also evolved, to deliver models suited to the small temporal and spatial scales typical of urban and peri-urban applications. Urban stormwater management increasingly consider the needs of receiving environments as well as those of humans. There is a clear trend towards approaches that attempt to restore pre-development flow-regimes and water quality, with an increasing recognition that restoring a more natural water balance benefits not only the environment, but enhances the liveability of the urban landscape. Once regarded only as a nuisance, stormwater is now increasingly regarded as a resource. Despite the advances, many important challenges in urban hydrology remain. Further research into the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban rainfall is required to improve short-term rainfall prediction. The performance of stormwater technologies in restoring the water balance and in removing emerging priority pollutants remain poorly quantified. All of these challenges are overlaid by the uncertainty of climate change, which imposes a requirement to ensure that stormwater management systems are adaptable and resilient to changes. Urban hydrology will play a critical role in addressing these challenges.
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Taking the “waste” out of “wastewater” for human water security and ecosystem sustainability [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216852 URL PMID: 22879506 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Humans create vast quantities of wastewater through inefficiencies and poor management of water systems. The wasting of water poses sustainability challenges, depletes energy reserves, and undermines human water security and ecosystem health. Here we review emerging approaches for reusing wastewater and minimizing its generation. These complementary options make the most of scarce freshwater resources, serve the varying water needs of both developed and developing countries, and confer a variety of environmental benefits. Their widespread adoption will require changing how freshwater is sourced, used, managed, and priced.
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Global change and the ecology of cities [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1150195 URL PMID: 18258902 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Urban areas are hot spots that drive environmental change at multiple scales. Material demands of production and human consumption alter land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, and urban waste discharge affects local to global biogeochemical cycles and climate. For urbanites, however, global environmental changes are swamped by dramatic changes in the local environment. Urban ecology integrates natural and social sciences to study these radically altered local environments and their regional and global effects. Cities themselves present both the problems and solutions to sustainability challenges of an increasingly urbanized world.
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Urban hydrology [M]. |
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Future flood losses in major coastal cities [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1979 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities(1,2) owing to growing populations and assets, the changing climate(3), and subsidence(4-6). Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year, increasing to US$52 billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone. With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1 trillion or more per year. Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60-63 billion per year in 2050. To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to reduce flood probabilities below present values. In this case, the magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. The analysis identifies the cities that seem most vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in losses can be expected.
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Socio-hydrological perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and groundwater in Cangzhou, North China Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-411 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents a historical analysis from socio-hydrological perspectives of the coupled human roundwater system of the Cangzhou region in the North China Plain (NCP). The history of the for water allocation between the economic development and aquifer environmental health of the system is divided into five eras (i.e., natural, exploitation, degradation and restoration, drought-triggered deterioration, and returning to equilibrium). The system's evolution was interpreted using the Taiji ire model. Over-exploitation was considered as the main cause of aquifer depletion, and the groundwater utilization pattern was affected by the varying groundwater table. The aquifer depletion enhanced community sensitivity toward environmental issues, and upgraded the social productive force for restoration. The evolution of the system was substantially impacted by two droughts. The drought in 1965 induced the system from natural conditions to groundwater exploiting. The drought from 1997 to 2002 resulted in a surge in further groundwater abstraction and dramatic aquifer deterioration, and community sensitivity increased rapidly and induced the social productive force to a tipping point. From then on, the system returns to equilibrium through new policies and water-saving technologies. Along with the establishment of a strict water resource management strategy and the launch of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, further restoration of groundwater environment was implemented. However, a comprehensive and coordinated drought management plan should be devised to avoid irreversible change in the system.
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Determining effective impervious area for urban hydrologic modeling [J].https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2009)14:2(111) URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents a two-step process to estimate the fraction of an urban watershed covered by ahydraulically effectiveimpervious area. The first step applies maximum likelihood classification of fine-scale multispectral satellite imagery to derive urban land cover. The second step uses an automated macro in a geographic information system to trace the water flow path from pixels classified as impervious and subclassify them as noneffective or effective. The two steps were verified independently, with verification of the second step using idealized data. The two-step process was then tested with a small watershed study of model calibration and rooftop connectivity impact on runoff. At the watershed scale the land cover classification differences were approximately 6%, while at the pixel scale matches of 50, 60, and 83% were achieved for the rooftop, asphalt/concrete, and vegetation land covers, respectively. The effective impervious area was estimated to comprise 16% of the watershed surface, which was close to the actual value of 22%. At the pixel scale, the effective impervious area match was less accurate at 48%. Differences in both land cover and effective impervious area classification at all scales are attributed to high land surface heterogeneity, data limitations and errors, and tree canopy covering impervious surfaces. The verification tests and runoff simulations validate the method as a useful means to rapidly estimate with reasonable accuracy an essential urban hydrologic model parameter.
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Cities and flooding: A guide to integrated urban flood risk management for the 21st century [M]. |
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Urban pluvial flooding and stormwater management: A contemporary review of China’s challenges and "sponge cities" strategy [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.11.016 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In recent years, urban pluvial flooding caused by extreme rainfall has increasingly occurred across China. This paper reviews the challenges faced by China in addressing urban pluvial flooding and managing urban stormwater, with a particular focus on a policy initiative termed sponge cities . The paper first synthetically presents pluvial flood disasters in urbanized areas, and analyses their causes and formation mechanisms. It then introduces China sponge cities initiative and discusses policy implementation in relation to contemporary understanding of sustainable urban stormwater management and international experience with innovative practices. The initiative, while theoretically well grounded and appropriate by its design principles, is shown subject to diverse implementation challenges, ranging from technological complexity to limited or lack of governance capacity as reflected in management ideology, knowledge and capacity of learning, participatory and integrated governance, investment financing, implementation pathway, planning and organization, and project evaluation. The paper offers some strategies for addressing those challenges, which include: 1) continuous experiment-based deep learning through pilot and institutionalization of knowledge and information management with city-to-city peering learning mechanisms, 2) establishment of institutional mechanisms dedicated to participatory, coordinated and integrated governance of the policy initiative, 3) increased government role in creating favorable conditions for investments, and 4) appropriate planning and an adaptive approach to policy implementation. The paper concludes that the sponge cities initiative can be an effective approach only if China commits to appropriate technical, governance, financial, and organizational measures to effectively address the challenges for policy implementation.
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Socio-hydrologic drivers of the Pendulum Swing between agriculture development and environmental health: A case study from Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7197-2013 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This paper presents a case study centred on the Murrumbidgee River basin in eastern Australia. It illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production, and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. In particular, the paper traces the history of a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, subsequent efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. The 100-year history of development within the Murrumbidgee is divided into four eras, each underpinned by the dominance of different values and norms and turning points characterized by their changes. The various stages of development can be characterized by the dominance, in turn, of infrastructure systems, policy frameworks, economic instruments, and technological solutions. The paper argues that, to avoid these costly pendulum swings, management needs to be underpinned by long-term coupled socio-hydrologic system models that explicitly include the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including the slow evolution of human values and norms relating to water and the environment. Such coupled human-water system models can provide insights into dominant controls of the trajectory of their co-evolution in a given system, and can also be used to interpret patterns of co-evolution of such coupled systems in different places across gradients of climatic, socio-economic and socio-cultural conditions, and in this way to help develop generalizable understanding.
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Impact of urbanization on recent temperature and precipitation trends in the Korean peninsula [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0016-z URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Urbanization has a significant impact on climate in urban areas. In this study, we investigate urbanization impacts on temperature and precipitation trends in Korean peninsula based on statistical relationship between these trends and local population growth. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between temperature rise and local population growth, indicating that urbanization has a significant contribution to temperature increase in city climate. As for temperature, the population growth in Korean cities is positively correlated with precipitation trend. The positive correlation is higher during summer time when small-scale convective activity is dominant. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the correlation is significantly increased when stations in rural areas and small cities are excluded. Such nonlinear relation between precipitation and urbanization is also discussed.
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Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018298 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger. We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient MayaReservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levelsHowever, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred We present a coupled hydrology‐demography model that simulates plausible feedbacks for the Ancient Maya Reservoirs allowed the Maya people to sustain longer economic growth and reach higher population levels However, reliance on reservoirs resulted in bigger population drops when major droughts occurred
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Identifying and quantifying urban recharge: A review [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0177-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The sources of and pathways for groundwater recharge in urban areas are more numerous and complex than in rural environments. Buildings, roads, and other surface infrastructure combine with man-made drainage networks to change the pathways for precipitation. Some direct recharge is lost, but additional recharge can occur from storm drainage systems. Large amounts of water are imported into most cities for supply, distributed through underground pipes, and collected again in sewers or septic tanks. The leaks from these pipe networks often provide substantial recharge. Sources of recharge in urban areas are identified through piezometry, chemical signatures, and water balances. All three approaches have problems. Recharge is quantified either by individual components (direct recharge, water-mains leakage, septic tanks, etc.) or holistically. Working with individual components requires large amounts of data, much of which is uncertain and is likely to lead to large uncertainties in the final result. Recommended holistic approaches include the use of groundwater modelling and solute balances, where various types of data are integrated. Urban recharge remains an under-researched topic, with few high-quality case studies reported in the literature.
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A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: Case study of the Tarim River basin, western China [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1035-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the external drivers and internal system variables. The results show a costly pendulum swing between a balanced distribution of socio-economic and natural ecologic resources among the upper and lower reaches and a highly skewed distribution towards the upper reach. This evolution is principally driven by the attitudinal changes occurring within water resources management policies that reflect the evolving community awareness of society to concerns regarding the ecology and environment.
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Socio-hydrologic perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and water in the Tarim River basin, Western China: The Taiji-Tire model [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1289-2014 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents a historical socio-hydrological analysis of the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang Province, Western China, from the time of the opening of the Silk Road to the present. The analysis is aimed at exploring the historical co-evolution of coupled human--water systems and at identifying common patterns or organizing principles underpinning socio-hydrological systems (SHS). As a self-organized entity, the evolution of the human--water system in the Tarim Basin reached stable states for long periods of time, then punctuated by sudden shifts due to internal or external disturbances. In this study, we discuss three steady periods (i.e. natural, human exploitation, and degradation and recovery) and transitions in between during the past 2000 yr. During the "natural" stage that existed pre-18th century, with small-scale human society and sound environment, evolution of the SHS was mainly driven by natural environmental changes such as river channel migration and climate change. During the human exploitation stage, especially in the 19th and 20th centuries, it experienced rapid population growth, massive land reclamation and fast socio-economic development, and humans became the principal players of system evolution. By the 1970s, the Tarim Basin had evolved into a new regime with a vulnerable eco-hydrological system seemingly populated beyond its carrying capacity, and a human society that began to suffer from serious water shortages, land salinization and desertification. With intensified deterioration of river health and increased recognition of unsustainability of traditional development pattern, human intervention and recovery measures have been adopted. Since then, the basin has shown a reverse regime shift towards some healing of the environmental damage. Spatio-temporal variations of historical socio-hydrological co-evolution are classified into four types: primitive agricultural, traditional agricultural, industrial agricultural and 25 urban SHSs. These co-evolutionary changes have been summarized in terms of the Taiji--Tire Model, a refinement of a special concept in Chinese philosophy, relating to the co-evolution of a system because of interactions among its components.
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A review on effectiveness of best management practices in improving hydrology and water quality: Needs and opportunities [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.212 URL PMID: 28575835 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used to address hydrology and water quality issues in both agricultural and urban areas. Increasing numbers of BMPs have been studied in research projects and implemented in watershed management projects, but a gap remains in quantifying their effectiveness through time. In this paper, we review the current knowledge about BMP efficiencies, which indicates that most empirical studies to date have focused on short-term or immediate efficiencies, while few have explored long-term efficiencies. Most simulation efforts that consider BMPs assume constant performance irrespective of the length of study period, generally based on anticipated maintenance activities or the expected performance over the life of the BMP(s). However, efficiencies of BMPs likely change over time irrespective of maintenance due to factors such as the variation of vegetation, degradation of structures, and accumulation of pollutants. Generally, the impacts of BMPs implemented in water quality protection programs at watershed scales have not been as rapid or large as expected, possibly due to overly high expectations for practice long-term efficiency, with BMPs even being sources of pollutants under some conditions and during some time periods. The review of available datasets reveals that current data are limited regarding both short-term and long-term BMP efficiency. Based on this review, suggestions are provided regarding needs and opportunities for quantifying both short-term and long-term performance of BMPs.
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Evolution of the human-water relationships in Heihe River basin in the past 2000 years [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1059-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Stationarity is dead: Whither water management [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Urban hydrology and water management-present and future challenges [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S1462-0758(99)00009-6 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Urban hydrology is an applied science that will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human societies. Facing present growth of urban population, it is increasingly difficult to find and utilize new sources of water necessary to satisfy growing water demand. For the poor, the residents of peri-urban and squatter areas, an ultimate poverty, the poverty of lacking clean water, is a result. To remove this kind of poverty should be a first priority target for all people and, especially, for people dealing with water management in urban areas. Growth of urban areas brings significant changes in physical properties of land surface increasing integrated vulnerability of inhabitants, agricultural land and rural ecological life supporting systems. Performance of technical solutions depends on climate as well as on social, economical and cultural conditions. Findings from urban hydrological studies based on collection of urban hydrological data, calculations and modeling constitute a necessary fundamental for meaningful water management not only in urban areas but also in entire river basins. Future challenges in urban water management include development of new technical solutions as well as logistic and organizational methods in order to turn present problems into future opportunities. The following current and emerging challenges are discussed in the paper: delivery of drinking water supply for growing cities, water for sanitation versus sanitation without water, recycling of wastewater nutrients, wastewater irrigation, urban agriculture, water to feed depleted aquifers, thoughts about possible future new system solutions, social equity and transfer of knowledge and new technology.
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Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-8279-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Due to a number of recent high profile flood events and the apparent threat from global warming, governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains. However, adopting a proactive approach as a universal strategy is not affordable. It has been argued that delaying expensive and essentially irreversible capital decisions could be a prudent strategy in situations with high future uncertainty. This paper firstly uses Monte Carlo simulation to explore the performance of proactive and reactive investment strategies using a rational cost-benefit approach in a natural system with varying levels of persistence/interannual variability in Annual Maximum Floods. It is found that, as persistence increases, there is a change in investment strategy optimality from proactive to reactive. This could have implications for investment strategies under the increasingly variable climate that is expected with global warming. brbr As part of the emerging holistic approaches to flood risk management, there is increasing emphasis on stakeholder participation in determining where and when flood protection investments are made, and so flood risk management is becoming more people-centred. As a consequence, multiple actors are involved in the decision-making process, and the social sciences are assuming an increasingly important role in flood risk management. There is a need for modelling approaches which can couple the natural and human system elements. It is proposed that Coupled Human and Natural System (CHANS) modelling could play an important role in understanding the motivations, actions and influence of citizens and institutions and how these impact on the effective delivery of flood protection investment. A framework for using Agent Based Modelling of human activities leading to flood investments is outlined, and some of the challenges associated with implementation are discussed.
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A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133 URL PMID: 19628857 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract A major problem worldwide is the potential loss of fisheries, forests, and water resources. Understanding of the processes that lead to improvements in or deterioration of natural resources is limited, because scientific disciplines use different concepts and languages to describe and explain complex social-ecological systems (SESs). Without a common framework to organize findings, isolated knowledge does not cumulate. Until recently, accepted theory has assumed that resource users will never self-organize to maintain their resources and that governments must impose solutions. Research in multiple disciplines, however, has found that some government policies accelerate resource destruction, whereas some resource users have invested their time and energy to achieve sustainability. A general framework is used to identify 10 subsystem variables that affect the likelihood of self-organization in efforts to achieve a sustainable SES.
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Ecosystem services response to urbanization in metropolitan areas: Thresholds identification [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.218 URL PMID: 28711000 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Ecosystem service is the key comprehensive indicator for measuring the ecological effects of urbanization. Although various studies have found a causal relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services degradation, the linear or non-linear characteristics are still unclear, especially identifying the impact thresholds in this relationship. This study quantified four ecosystem services (i.e. soil conservation, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, water yield, and food production) and total ecosystem services (TES), and then identified multiple advantageous area of ecosystem services in the peri-urban area of Beijing City. Using piecewise linear regression, the response of TES to urbanization (i.e., population density, GDP density, and construction land proportion) and its thresholds were detected. The results showed that, the TES was high in the north and west and low in the southeast, and there were seven multiple advantageous areas (distributed in the new urban development zone and ecological conservation zone), one single advantageous area (distributed in the ecological conservation zone), and six disadvantageous areas (mainly distributed in the urban function extended zone). TES response to population and economic urbanization each had a threshold (229personkm -2 and 107.15millionyuankm -2 , respectively), above which TES decreased rapidly with intensifying urbanization. However, there was a negative linear relationship between land urbanization and TES, which indicated that the impact of land urbanization on ecosystem services was more direct and effective than that of population and economic urbanization. It was also found that the negative impact of urbanization on TES was highest in the urban function extended zone, followed in descending order by that in the new urban development zone and ecological conservation zone. According to the detected relationships between urbanization and TES, the economic and population urbanization should be strengthened accompanied by slowing or even reducing land urbanization, so as to achieve urban ecological sustainability with less ecosystem services degradation. Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Potential implications of climate change and urbanization on watershed hydrology [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
react-text: 415 The use of statistical methods together with the GIS technologies is currently one of the most efficient tools in the assessment of landslide susceptibility. The correlation between the physical phenomenon and its triggering factors depends on several factors, including the resolution at which the elevation data are represented in a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The resolution becomes... /react-text react-text: 416 /react-text [Show full abstract]
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Facing the freshwater crisis [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0808-46 URL PMID: 18666679 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Scientific American is the world's premier magazine of scientific discovery and technological innovation for the general public. Readers turn to it for a deep understanding of how science and technology can influence human affairs and illuminate the natural world.
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Allocating environmental water and impact on basin unemployment: Role of a diversified economy [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.02.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water diversion for environmental purposes threatens many agricultural communities. This paper focuses on the water-agriculture-environment nexus in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia, and attempts to explain how reduced water allocation to agriculture aimed at protecting the environment in turn impacted the wider economy and the community. Predictably reduced water allocation saw declines in agriculture production and employment. Despite this, paradoxically, the basin unemployment rate declined and basin median household income increased. To understand and interpret this, we first analyze available labour, economic and hydrology data, and then develop a simple dynamic model to interpret the observed pattern of basin employment and unemployment. Data analysis revealed the likely causes behind the paradox as (a) out-migration of people from the basin, and (b) absorption of the labour force in the fast growing non-agricultural sectors of the diversified basin economy. The model simulations reinforced this interpretation. Further model simulations under alternative realities of out-migration and sectoral transformation indicated that basins embedded in faster growing national economies, and are more diversified to begin with, are likely to be more conducive to agriculture sector reform (e.g., reduced water allocation) and environmental regeneration. This is a sobering message for other regions experiencing environmental degradation due to extensive agricultural development.
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Current research in urban hydrogeology-a review [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.06.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Urban groundwater is a heritage at risk because urban land use practises puts enormous and highly complex pressure on this resource. In this article, we review urban groundwater studies in the context of urban water management, discuss advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling techniques for urban areas and highlight the challenges. We present how techniques on contaminant concentration measurements, water balancing and contaminant load estimation were applied and further developed for the special requirements in urban settings. To fully understand and quantify the complex urban water systems, we need to refine these methods and combine them with sophisticated modelling approaches. Only then we will be able to sustainably manage our water resources in and around our urban areas especially in light of growing cities and global climatic change. We believe that over the next few years much more effort will be devoted to research in urban hydrogeology.
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Mechanisms of resilience in common-pool resource management systems: An agent-based model of water use in a river basin [J].https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02069-120204 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The concept of resilience is widely promoted as a promising notion to guide new approaches to ecosystem and resource management that try to enhance a system#039;s capacity to cope with change. A variety of mechanisms of resilience specific for different systems have been proposed. In the context of resource management those include but are not limited to the diversity of response options and flexibility of the social system to adaptively respond to changes on an adequate scale. However, implementation of resilience-based management in specific real-world systems has often proven difficult because of a limited understanding of suitable interventions and their impact on the resilience of the coupled social-ecological system. We propose an agent-based modeling approach to explore system characteristics and mechanisms of resilience in a complex resource management system, based on a case study of water use in the Amudarya River, which is a semiarid river basin. Water resources in its delta are used to sustain irrigated agriculture as well as aquatic ecosystems that provide fish and other ecosystem services. The three subsystems of the social-ecological system, i.e., the social system, the irrigation system, and an aquatic ecosystem, are linked by resource flows and the allocation decision making of actors on different levels. Simulation experiments are carried out to compare the resilience of different institutional settings of water management to changes in the variability and uncertainty of water availability. The aim is to investigate the influence of (1) the organizational structure of water management, (2) information on water availability, and (3) the diversity of water uses on the resilience of the system to short and long-term water scarcity. In this paper, the model concept and first simulation results are presented. As a first illustration of the approach the performances of a centralized and a decentralized regime are compared under different scenarios of information on water availability. Under the given conditions of a regularly fluctuating inflow and compliance of agents with orders from a national authority, the centralized system performs better as long as irrigation is the only type of water use. Diversification of resource use, e.g., irrigation and fishing, increases the performance of the decentralized regime and the resilience of both. Systematic analysis of the performance of different system structures will help to identify properties and mechanisms of resilience. This understanding will be valuable for the identification, development, and evaluation of management interventions in specific river basins.
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Is impervious cover still important? Review of recent research [J].https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2009)14:4(309) URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.
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Newspaper coverage of water issues in China from 1950 to 2000 [J].https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2014.219 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Mass media are important sources of information about water issues that significantly influence civil life. This paper presents a content analysis approach to contextualize the water issues reporting of the People's Daily. The intent of our approach is to uncover the reporting pattern of water issues and the relationship between government policies and their news reports. Using the newspaper with the second widest circulation in China, the content analysis approach reveals that the document frequency of water issues had shown a flat trend since the 1970s. Water-related articles were given more significance by providing additional front pages. The results suggest that newspapers have been focusing more on the recreational function and protection of water since the 1980s. The results also show that there was a relative shortage of coverage on certain types of water-related central government documents. Lacking persistence was another feature of policy propaganda. These factors could work against public engagement in water issues and undermine the public's understanding of and confidence in water management measures. We believe these results could help water resource managers to interpret media content of water issues and improve the propaganda of their policies, which would contribute to better administration of water resources.
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A review of current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/EI156.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore, proper assessment of the urban environment0964s impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecasting, freshwater resource management, urban planning09“design, and land09“atmosphere09“ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (199009“present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban-induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g., aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capabilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.
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Rainfall modification by major urban areas: Observations from spaceborne rain radar on the TRMM satellite [J].https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2002)0412.0.CO;2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar (PR) were employed to identify warm-season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Georgia; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; and San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas, Texas. Results reveal an average increase of about 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 km downwind of the metropolis, with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with the Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies of St. Louis, Missouri, almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.
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Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017896 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract We present a coevolutionary view of hydrologic systems, revolving around feedbacks between environmental and social processes operating across different time scales. This brings to the fore an emphasis on emergent phenomena in changing water systems, such as the levee effect, adaptation to change, system lock-in, and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system. Guidance is provided for the framing and modeling of these phenomena to test alternative hypotheses about how they arose. A plurality of coevolutionary models, from stylized to comprehensive system-of-system models, may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesize the observed dynamics in a wide range of case studies. Future research opportunities lie in exploring emergent phenomena arising from time scale interactions through historical, comparative, and process studies of human-water feedbacks.
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Socio-hydrology: Use-inspired water sustainability science for the Anthropocene [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000164 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water is at the core of the most difficult sustainability challenges facing humans in the modern era, involving feedbacks across multiple scales, sectors, and agents. We suggest that a transformative new discipline is necessary to address many and varied water-related challenges in the Anthropocene. Specifically, we propose socio-hydrology as a use-inspired scientific discipline to focus on understanding, interpretation, and scenario development of the flows and stocks in the human-modified water cycle across time and space scales. A key aspect of socio-hydrology is explicit inclusion of two-way feedbacks between human and water systems, which differentiates socio-hydrology from other inter-disciplinary disciplines dealing with water. We illustrate the potential of socio-hydrology through three examples of water sustainability problems, defined as paradoxes, which can only be fully resolved within a new socio-hydrologic framework that encompasses such two-way coupling between human and water systems.
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Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Not Available
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Reimagining the past-use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: The case of Chennai, India [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-785-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The developing world is rapidly urbanizing. One of the challenges associated with this growth will be to supply water to growing cities of the developing world. Traditional planning tools fare poorly over 30 50 year time horizons because these systems are changing so rapidly. Models that hold land use, economic patterns, governance systems or technology static over a long planning horizon could result in inaccurate predictions leading to sub-optimal or paradoxical outcomes. Most models fail to account for adaptive responses by humans that in turn influence water resource availability, resulting in coevolution of the human ater system. Is a particular trajectory inevitable given a city's natural resource endowment, is the trajectory purely driven by policy or are there tipping points in the evolution of a city's growth that shift it from one trajectory onto another? Socio-hydrology has been defined as a new science of water and people that will explicitly account for such bi-directional feedbacks. However, a particular challenge in incorporating such feedbacks is imagining technological, social and political futures that could fundamentally alter future water demand, allocation and use. This paper offers an alternative approach the use of counterfactual trajectories that allows policy insights to be gleaned without having to predict social futures. The approach allows us to "reimagine the past"; to observe how outcomes would differ if different decisions had been made. The paper presents a "socio-hydrological" model that simulates the feedbacks between the human, engineered and hydrological systems in Chennai, India over a 40-year period. The model offers several interesting insights. First, the study demonstrates that urban household water security goes beyond piped water supply. When piped supply fails, users turn to their own wells. If the wells dry up, consumers purchase expensive tanker water or curtail water use and thus become water insecure. Second, unsurprisingly, different initial conditions result in different trajectories. But initial advantages in piped infrastructure are eroded if the utility is unable to expand the piped system to keep up with growth. Both infrastructure and sound management decisions are necessary to ensure household water security although the impacts of mismanagement may not manifest until much later when the population has grown and a multi-year drought strikes. Third, natural resource endowments can limit the benefits of good policy and infrastructure. Cities can boost recharge through artificial recharge schemes. However, cities underlain by productive aquifers can better rely on groundwater as a buffer against drought, compared to cities with unproductive aquifers.
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Prediction in a socio-hydrological world [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1253844 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.
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Impact of runoff infiltration on contaminant accumulation and transport in the soil/filter media of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems: A literature review [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.215 URL PMID: 27432725 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The increasing use of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) for stormwater management raises some concerns about the fate of ubiquitous runoff micropollutants in soils and their potential threat to groundwater. This question may be addressed either experimentally, by sampling and analyzing SUDS soil after a given operating time, or with a modeling approach to simulate the fate and transport of contaminants. After briefly reminding the processes responsible for the retention, degradation, or leaching of several urban-sourced contaminants in soils, this paper presents the state of the art about both experimental and modeling assessments. In spite of noteworthy differences in the sampling protocols, the soil parameters chosen as explanatory variables, and the methods used to evaluate the site-specific initial concentrations, most investigations undoubtedly evidenced a significant accumulation of metals and/or hydrocarbons in SUDS soils, which in the majority of the cases appears to be restricted to the upper 10 to 30 cm. These results may suggest that SUDS exhibit an interesting potential for pollution control, but antinomic observations have also been made in several specific cases, and the inter-site concentration variability is still difficult to appraise. There seems to be no consensus regarding the level of complexity to be used in models. However, the available data deriving from experimental studies is generally limited to the contamination profiles and a few parameters of the soil, as a result of which omplex models (including colloid-facilitated transport for example) appear to be difficult to validate before using them for predictive evaluations.
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Moving sociohydrology forward: A synthesis across studies [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3667-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Sociohydrology is the study of coupled human-water systems with the premise that water and human systems co-evolve, often with two-way coupling. A recent special issue in HESS/ESD, "Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the Anthropocene", includes a number of sociohydrologic publications that allow for a survey of the current state of understanding of sociohydrology and the coupled system dynamics and feedbacks, the research methodologies available, and the norms and ethics involved in studying sociohydrologic systems. Although sociohydrology is concerned with coupled human-water systems, it is critical to consider the sociohydrologic system as embedded in a larger, complex social-ecological system through which human-water feedbacks can occur and from which the sociohydrologic system cannot be isolated. As such, sociohydrology can draw on tools developed in the social-ecological and complex systems literature to further our sociohydrologic knowledge, and this is identified as a ripe area of future research.
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World urbanization prospects: The 2011 revision [R]. |
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Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4239-2014 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin-scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the twoway coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic and explain dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human “productive” and environmental “restorative” forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model further reveals that socio-hydrologic modeling can be used as a tool to explain or gain insight into observed co-evolutionary dynamics of diverse human–water coupled systems. This paper therefore contributes to the ultimate development of a generic modeling framework that can be applied to human–water coupled systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.
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| [89] |
Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk-roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.018 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
The risk coping culture of a community plays a major role in the development of urban floodplains. In this paper we analyse, in a conceptual way, the interplay of community risk coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. We particularly focus on three aspects: (i) collective memory, i.e., the capacity of the community to keep risk awareness high; (ii) risk-taking attitude, i.e., the amount of risk the community is collectively willing to be exposed to; and (iii) trust of the community in risk reduction measures. To this end, we use a dynamic model that represents the feedback between the hydrological and social system components. Model results indicate that, on the one hand, by under perceiving the risk of flooding (because of short collective memory and too much trust in flood protection structures) in combination with a high risk-taking attitude, community development is severely limited because of high damages caused by flooding. On the other hand, overestimation of risk (long memory and lack of trust in flood protection structures) leads to lost economic opportunities and recession. There are many scenarios of favourable development resulting from a trade-off between collective memory and trust in risk reduction measures combined with a low to moderate risk-taking attitude. Interestingly, the model gives rise to situations in which the development of the community in the floodplain is path dependent, i.e., the history of flooding may lead to community growth or recession.
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| [90] |
The urban stream syndrome: Current knowledge and the search for a cure [J].https://doi.org/10.1899/04-028.1 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [91] |
Potential sensitivity of warm season precipitation to urbanization extents: Modeling study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023572 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract In this study, we investigated how different degrees of urbanization affect local and regional rainfall using high-resolution simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The extreme rainfall event of 21 July 2012 in Beijing was simulated for three representative urban land use distributions (no urbanization, early urbanization level of 1980, and recent urbanization level of 2009). Results suggest that urban modification of rainfall is potentially sensitive to urban land use condition. Rainfall was increased significantly over the downwind Beijing metropolis because of the effects of early urbanization; however, recent conditions of high urban development caused no significant increase. Further comparative analysis revealed that positive urban thermodynamical effects (i.e., urban warming, increased sensible heat transportation, and enhanced convergence and vertical motions) play major roles in urban modification of rainfall during the early urbanization stage. However, after cities expand to a certain extent (i.e., urban agglomeration), the regional moisture depression induced by the prevalence of impervious urban land has an effect on atmospheric instability energy, which might negate the city's positive impact on regional rainfall. Additional results from regional climate simulations for 10 Julys confirm this supposition. Given the explosive urban population growth and increasing demand for freshwater in cities, the potential negative effects of the urban environment on precipitation are worth investigation, particularly in rapidly developing countries and regions.
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| [92] |
Areal differences in diurnal variations in summer precipitation over Beijing metropolitan region [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0636-8 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Using hourly rain-gauge measurements for the period 2004–2007, differences in diurnal variation in summer (June–August) precipitation are investigated in four distinct areas of Beijing: the urban area (UA), suburban area (SA), north mountainous area (NMA), and south mountainous area (SMA), which are distinguished empirically based on underlying surface conditions and verified with a statistical rotated empirical orthogonal function. The diurnal cycles and spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount, intensity, and frequency in the four areas are compared. Results show that the four areas have distinct diurnal variation patterns in precipitation amounts, with a single peak observed in UA and NMA in the late afternoon, which are 8002% and 12102% higher than their daily average, respectively, and two peaks in SA during the late afternoon and early morning with magnitudes exceeding the daily mean by 7602% and 2902%, respectively. There are also two peaks in SMA: a weaker nocturnal diurnal peak and an afternoon peak. The minimum amounts of rainfall observed in the forenoon in UA, SA, and SMA are 5302%, 4702%, and 5702% lower than the daily mean in each area, respectively, and that observed in the early morning in NMA is 5002% lower than the daily mean. The diurnal variations in precipitation intensities resemble those for precipitation amount in all four areas, but more intense precipitation is observed in SA (2.402mm/h) than in UA (2.202mm/h). The lowest frequency for the whole day is observed in UA, whereas the highest frequency occurs in the mountainous areas in the daytime, especially in the late afternoon in SMA. Diurnal variations in surface air temperature and divergence fields in the four areas are further investigated to interpret the physical mechanisms that underlie the spatial and temporal differences in summer diurnal precipitation, and the results indicate the possible dominance of the local circulation arising from mountain–valley wind and the differences in underlying surface heating between the urban, suburban, and mountainous areas of Beijing.
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| [93] |
Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0019-x URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [94] |
Evolution of newspaper coverage of water issues in Australia during 1843-2011 [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0571-2 URL PMID: 4392018 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
News accounts both reflect and influence public opinion through their noted ‘agenda-setting’ capability. We examined newspaper articles in Australia’s The Sydney Morning Herald from 1843 to 2011 to observe the evolution of media coverage on water issues related to water resources management. The results showed that water supply-related articles have dominated the reporting of water issues since 1843. This emphasis is reflected in the institutions involved and their related policy/management initiatives, as well as the themes of the articles. Extreme events such as flooding and drought have punctuated the historical record of reports on water issues. An economic development-driven tone was overwhelmingly predominant in newspaper articles (8502% of the total); however, there has been a marked decline in the importance of development-driven tone relative to environmental-sustainability oriented tone of articles since 1994. People from academia and NGOs were rarely quoted. Inclusion of wider range stakeholders should be considered as a strategic break-through and natural events should be considered as an “opportunity” to change public opinion on water issues for environmental sustainability.
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| [95] |
Evolution of the societal value of water resources for economic development versus environmental sustainability in Australia from 1843 to 2011 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Societal values are generally seen as leading to changes in human decisions and behavior, but have not been addressed adequately in current water management, which is blind to changes in the social drivers for, or societal responses to, management decisions. This paper describes the evolution of the societal value of water resources in Australia over a period of 169 years. These values were classified into two groups: those supporting economic development versus those supporting environmental sustainability. The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper was used as the main data source to track the changes in the societal value of water resources. Content analysis was used to create a description of the evolution of these societal values. Mathematical regression analysis, in combination of transition theory, was used to determine the stages of transition of the societal value, and the co-evolved social-ecological framework was used to explain how the evolution of societal values interacted with water management policies and practices, and droughts. Key findings included that the transition of the societal value of water resources fitted the sigmoid curve – a conceptual S curve for the transition of social systems. Also, the transition of the societal value of water resources in Australia went through three stages: (1) pre-development (1900s–1962), when the societal value of water resources was dominated by economic development; (2) take-off (1963–1980), when the societal value of water resources reflected the increasing awareness of the environment due to the outbreak of pollution events; (3) acceleration (1981–2011), when the environment-oriented societal value of water resources combined with the Millennium Drought to trigger a package of policy initiatives and management practices focused on sustainable water resource use. The approach developed in this study provides a roadmap for the development of new disciplines across social and natural science.
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| [96] |
Twenty-six key research questions in urban stream ecology: An assessment of the state of the science [J].https://doi.org/10.1899/08-186.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Urban streams have been the focus of much research in recent years, but many questions about the mechanisms driving the urban stream syndrome remain unanswered. Identification of key research questions is an important step toward effective, efficient management of urban streams to meet societal goals. We developed a list of priority research questions by: 1) soliciting input from interested scientists via a listserv and online survey, 2) holding an open discussion on the questions at the Second Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology, and 3) reviewing the literature in the preparation of this paper. We present the resulting list of 26 questions in the context of a review and summary of the present understanding of urban effects on streams. The key questions address major gaps in our understanding of ecosystem structure and function responses (e.g., what are the sublethal impacts of urbanization on biota?), characteristics of urban stream stressors (e.g., can we identify clusters of covarying stressors?), and management strategies (e.g., what are appropriate indicators of ecosystem structure and function to use as management targets?). The identified research needs highlight our limited understanding of mechanisms driving the urban stream syndrome and the variability in characteristics of the effects of urbanization across different biogeoclimatic conditions, stages of development, government policies, and cultural norms. We discuss how to proceed with appropriate management activities given our current incomplete understanding of the urban stream syndrome.
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| [97] |
Hard paths, soft paths or no paths? Cross-cultural perceptions of water solutions [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7809-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In this study, we examine how development status and water scarcity shape people's perceptions of "hard path" and "soft path" water solutions. Based on ethnographic research conducted in four semi-rural/peri-urban sites (in Bolivia, Fiji, New Zealand, and the US), we use content analysis to conduct statistical and thematic comparisons of interview data. Our results indicate clear differences associated with development status and, to a lesser extent, water scarcity. People in the two less developed sites were more likely to suggest hard path solutions, less likely to suggest soft path solutions, and more likely to see no path to solutions than people in the more developed sites. Thematically, people in the two less developed sites envisioned solutions that involve small-scale water infrastructure and decentralized, community-based solutions, while people in the more developed sites envisioned solutions that involve large-scale infrastructure and centralized, regulatory water solutions. People in the two water-scarce sites were less likely to suggest soft path solutions and more likely to see no path to solutions (but no more likely to suggest hard path solutions) than people in the water-rich sites. Thematically, people in the two water-rich sites seemed to perceive a wider array of unrealized potential soft path solutions than those in the water-scarce sites. On balance, our findings are encouraging in that they indicate that people are receptive to soft path solutions in a range of sites, even those with limited financial or water resources. Our research points to the need for more studies that investigate the social feasibility of soft path water solutions, particularly in sites with significant financial and natural resource constraints.
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| [98] |
Review of recent studies of the climatic effects of urbanization in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.09.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper summarizes recent studies on the effects of urbanization on climate in China. The effects of urbanization on local climate trends have been re-estimated based on homogenized observations and using improved methods. In this respect, the effect of urbanization on the observed warming trend of local surface air temperatures during the last few decades is determined as being about 20% at urban stations such as the Beijing Observatory. The large-scale weakening trend of wind speed is also about 20% more prominent at the city center than its surroundings. The effect of urbanization on precipitation is not profound, but results of high-resolution regional climate modeling suggest that this effect may depend on the urban extent. Although the urban heat island (UHI) should favor local atmospheric convection and hence precipitation, the increasingly extending urban land-use may reduce precipitation over the urban cluster in North China. It is found that urbanization can play a more notable role in extreme events than usual weather. High-resolution simulations show a positive feedback between the UHI and the super-heat wave in Shanghai during JulyeAugust 2013. Relevant studies dealing with urban climate adaptation are discussed in relation to recent findings.
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| [99] |
A comprehensive review of spatial allocation of LID-BMP-GI practices: Strategies and optimization tools [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.281 URL PMID: 29223122 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Low-impact development (LID), best management practice (BMP), and green infrastructure (GI) are semi-engineered stormwater management practices that have been widely studied and implemented worldwide. Implemented in the complex environment of urban areas, LID-BMP-GI practices often intertwine with a very large number of hydro-environmental and socio-economic considerations and constraints. Therefore, they need to be carefully selected, designed, and allocated within an urban area. Both planning and optimization can lead to more systematic and strategic approaches to address this multi-scale, multi-parameter problem of practice allocation. In this review, we first identify the main components of the strategic planning cycle, their scope and inter-relationships, and their corresponding mathematical representations. We then present a comprehensive review of the existing literature on spatial allocation optimization tools (SAOTs) for LID-BMP-GI practices and summarize the generic structure and the systematic typology of the existing SAOTs. We conclude with a discussion of several current research gaps in the spatial allocation of LID-BMP-GI practices. In this review, we aim to summarize the strategies and optimization tools for the spatial allocation of LID-BMP-GI practices that are beneficial to practitioners. The other aim is to provide recommendations for future research on the development of more advanced and comprehensive SAOTs.
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| [100] |
A case study of urbanization impact on summer precipitation in the greater Beijing metropolitan area: Urban heat island versus aerosol effects [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023753 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Convection-resolving ensemble simulations using the WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model are conducted to investigate the individual and combined impacts of land use and anthropogenic pollutant emissions from urbanization on a heavy rainfall event in the Greater Beijing Metropolitan Area (GBMA) in China. The simulation with the urbanization effect included generally captures the spatial pattern and temporal variation of the rainfall event. An improvement of precipitation is found in the experiment including aerosol effect on both clouds and radiation. The expanded urban land cover and increased aerosols have an opposite effect on precipitation processes, with the latter playing a more dominant role, leading to suppressed convection and rainfall over the upstream (northwest) area, and enhanced convection and more precipitation in the downstream (southeast) region of the GBMA. In addition, the influence of aerosol indirect effect is found to overwhelm that of direct effect on precipitation in this rainfall event. Increased aerosols lead to more cloud droplets with smaller size, which favor evaporative cooling and reduce updrafts and suppress convection over the upstream (northwest) region in the early stage of the rainfall event. As the rainfall system propagates southeastward, more latent heat is released due to the freezing of larger number of smaller cloud drops that are lofted above the freezing level, which is responsible for the increased updraft strength and convective invigoration over the downstream (southeast) area.
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| [101] |
Ensemble simulations of the urban effect on a summer rainfall event in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.09.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61We conduct ensemble simulations to investigate the urban effects on a summertime heavy rainfall event.61Urban effects lead to more precipitation over the southwest, but less rainfall to the northeast of Beijing.61The effect of urbanization slows the cold front movement due to the intense warm air over the urban area.61The slow-moving cold front delays the occurrence of peak rainfall but enhances the precipitation intensity.
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| [102] |
Historic maps as a data source for socio-hydrology: A case study of the Lake Balaton wetland system, Hungary [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4589-2013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Socio-hydrology is the science of human influence on hydrology and the influence of the water cycle on human social systems. This newly emerging discipline inherently involves a historic perspective, often focusing on timescales of several centuries. While data on human history is typically available for this time frame, gathering information on the hydrological situation during such a period can prove difficult: measured hydrological data for such long periods are rare, while models and secondary data sets from geomorphology, pedology or archaeology are typically not accurate enough over such a short time. In the first part of this study, the use of historic maps in hydrology is reviewed. Major breakthroughs were the acceptance of historic map content as valid data, the use of preserved features for investigating situations earlier than the map, and the onset of digital georeferencing and data integration. Historic maps can be primary quantitative sources of hydro-geomorphological information, they can provide a context for point-based measurements over larger areas, and they can deliver time series for a better understanding of change scenarios.In the second part, a case study is presented: water level fluctuations of Lake Balaton were reconstructed from maps, levelling logs and other documents. An 18th century map system of the whole 5700 km(2) catchment was georeferenced, integrated with two 19th century map systems, and wetlands, forests and open water digitized. Changes in wetland area were compared with lake water level changes in a 220 yr time series. Historic maps show that the water level of the lake was closer to present-day levels than expected, and that wetland loss pre-dates drainage of the lake.The present and future role of historic maps is discussed. Historic hydrological data has to be treated with caution: while it is possible to learn form the past, the assumption that future changes will be like past changes does not always hold. Nevertheless, old maps are relatively accessible data sets and the knowledge base for using them is rapidly growing, and it can be expected that long-term time series will be established by integrating georeferenced map systems over large areas.In the Appendix, a step-by-step guide to using historic maps in hydrology is given, starting from finding a map, through georeferencing and processing the map to publication of the results.
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