吕一河
, 傅微
LV Yihe, FU Wei
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2017-12-12
修回日期: 2018-01-13
网络出版日期: 2018-01-28
版权声明: 2018 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
基金资助:
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摘要
区域资源环境综合承载力是人地关系和谐和可持续发展的重要基础,也是自然地理综合研究的前沿及热点内容。近年来,区域资源环境综合承载力研究取得了长足进展,体现在：①建立了综合、广泛的评价指标体系;②资源环境综合承载力与人地关系的调适;③综合研究方法的应用;④对资源环境综合承载力的时空动态研究的关注及尝试。目前,资源环境综合承载力研究应用于国土空间开发、产业规划、灾后重建、资源环境监测及预警等领域。未来仍需在完善指标体系的构建、研究尺度及动态变化等方面加强研究,以此深化综合自然地理理论及实践研究,为区域资源、社会和生态环境可持续性研究提供支撑。
关键词：
Abstract
The integrated carrying capacity of regional resource and environment systems is an important foundation for the harmonious and sustainable development of the human-environment system, and thus has become a hot topic of integrated physical geography research. Great progress has been made in the study on the carrying capacity of regional integrated resource and environment systems. The main achievements include the establishment of a comprehensive and extensive evaluation index system, a focus on the coordination of human-environment relationships, development and application of comprehensive research methods, and a focus on the spatial and temporal dynamics of the integrated carrying capacity of resource and environment systems. At present, study on integrated carrying capacity of resource and environment systems are applied to regional economic development program management, such as spatial development, industrial planning, post-disaster reconstruction, and resource and environment monitoring and early warning. Future research, however, still needs to improve the evaluation index system and strengthen research on appropriate scale of analyses and dynamic changes of the integrated carrying capacity of resource and environment systems, in order to deepen the theoretical and empirical studies of integrated physical geography. This will provide supports for the research on the sustainability of regional resources, society, and ecological environment.
Keywords：
自然地理环境各组分(气候、地貌、水文、土壤、植被、动物及人类社会)相互作用的格局与过程是自然地理综合研究的核心命题和长期任务之一。目前,世界范围内广泛开展了以资源环境为核心的社会—经济—自然复合生态系统对人类活动响应研究,并对可持续发展议题的关注度不断提高。一系列针对可持续发展提出的概念、理论和方法正用于模拟人与自然系统耦合作用所带来的生态环境影响和效应。其中,“资源环境承载力”这一概念涵盖资源、环境、生态、灾害、社会、经济等多维度内涵：在资源维度,承载力指资源供给环境系统与人类需求的能力;在环境维度,承载力指污染物稀释和自我净化的良好环境质量维持功能;在生态维度,承载力是为人类生存提供供给、调节、文化、支持服务的能力;在社会经济维度,承载力是自然资源与环境对人类及其社会经济活动承载的强度、范围及相关阈值,在阈值体系之内,资源环境系统不至于发生显著的退化或崩溃。另外,从灾变响应的角度,也有灾害承载力的概念,是区域包括资源环境在内的承灾系统对于自然灾害的整体抗御能力(张明媛等, 2008; 刘朝峰等, 2011)。因此,理清资源环境承载力不同维度的内涵对于生态系统管理、环境保护、区域发展、环境变化的响应与适应等多学科领域或政策服务尤为重要。
通常从森林、海洋、矿产资源及土地利用等生态或环境系统不同方面探讨自然或城市生态系统的承载能力。本文通过检索主题“Carrying Capacity”并含“Resource”和“Environment”的中英文文献,对共计7495篇进行了计量分析,结果显示：近10年对于资源环境承载力的研究论文逐年增加,从2007年共计444篇增加至2017年903篇。其中水资源承载力、生态承载力、水环境承载力、指标体系等研究主题,以及如系统动力学、生态足迹等方法,占据关键词的主导位置。随着研究体系和研究方法的发展,相关研究集中在资源环境承载力概念内涵细化、评价指标体系的完善和扩展、不同区域或对象的应用实践,以及相关领域研究方法的统筹等方面。资源环境承载力在单要素承载力和综合承载力方面均有较大进展。从研究内容上来看,单要素资源环境承载力正向着时间和空间维度的深化方向拓展。根据承载主体、对象、研究尺度的不同,进一步细化了承载力各个层面、各个尺度的研究内容,包括地下水承载力、土壤水承载力(Liu et al, 2015)、植被承载力(Feng et al, 2016)、城市承载力(Wei et al, 2016)等。多要素的资源环境综合承载力正向着广度延伸和交互性拓展等方面发展。例如,国内外学者重点关注资源环境的输送、转移和互利互生作用,在不同的国家或区域从区域格局、跨区域影响与耦合(海洋内陆)以及城市群发展等方面展开资源环境综合承载力研究(Xu et al, 2011; Strassburg et al, 2014; Martire et al, 2015)。
随着上述研究的开展,对于资源环境承载力的研究手段及方法不断完善。但由于研究需求或侧重点的不同,对各类型承载力概念尚存在界定不清、分类不明等问题,从而给区域资源环境综合承载力整合研究带来困难。因此,本文结合重点研究文献,根据承载力要素,对各类型承载力的内涵进行了梳理(表1)。在此基础上,以区域资源环境综合承载力评价指标体系的发展现状、人地关系的调适、综合研究方法以及时空动态研究为重点,整合了当前国内外相关研究热点及主要实践及应用,旨在为国内相关研究提供参考和借鉴。
表1 主要型承载力类型的内涵
Tab.1 Connotations of various types of carrying capacity
| 承载力要素 | 承载力内涵 | 细化方向 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 资源承载力 | 土地资源 | 一定时期内,一定区域的社会、经济、生态环境条件下,土地资源所能承载人类各种活动的规模和强度的阈值(彭文英等, 2015)。 | 城市土地承载力、耕地承载力、森林承载力 |
| 水资源 | 在一定经济社会和科术发展水平条件下,以生态、环境健康发展和社会经济可持续发展协调为前提,区域水资源系统能够支撑社会经济可持续发展的合理规模 (段春青等, 2010)。 | 湿地承载力、渔业资源承载力、地下水承载力 | |
| 矿产资源 | 在一个可预见的时期内,在当时的科学技术、自然环境和社会经济条件下,矿产资源的经济可采储量(或其生产能力)对社会经济发展的承载能力(王奎峰等, 2016)。 | 煤炭资源承载力、矿产资源安全承载力 | |
| 旅游资源 | 一定时期内,在可持续发展的标准下,生态旅游目的地的自然环境、社会经济环境和生态旅游资源对于开展生态旅游活动的容纳或支持能力(杨倩等, 2015)。 | 海滩资源承载力、自然保护区生态承载力、旅游资源空间承载力 | |
| 土壤水 | 在土壤中水、肥、气、热相互协调的前提下,一个地区土壤水资源供需协调的综合能力(Lazcano et al, 2014)。 | 土壤水含量承载力、耕地土壤水资源承载力 | |
| 植被 | 某一区域的某种植物在生命期的1至多年内,在现有的条件下,以维护水分生态良性循环和可持续发展为前提,当地土壤水分中雨水的补给量可支撑的植物群落健康生产或生长的最大数量(王延平等, 2012)。 | 土壤水分植被承载力、植被碳承载力 | |
| 环境承载力 | 水环境 | 某一区域某一时期内,特定社会生产条件及经济发展水平下,以水为核心的资源环境有机整体在自身结构、功能不受破坏的前提下所能提供的承载人类社会活动的能力(马巾英, 2015)。 | 河湖环境承载力、水产养殖环境承载力 |
| 大气环境 | 在某一时期、某一区域,环境对人类活动所排放大气污染物的最大可能负荷的支撑阈值(徐大海等, 2013)。 | 大气环境容量、大气环境安全承载力 | |
| 土壤环境 | 在维持土壤环境系统功能结构不发生变化的前提下,其所能承受的人类作用在规模、强度和速度上的限值(Jiang et al, 2016)。 | 土壤环境容量、铅承载力、畜牧业环境承载力 | |
| 地质环境 | 一定条件下地质环境所能承受人类活动的影响与改变的最大支持能力(王奎峰等, 2015)。 | 生态地质环境承载力、山地环境承载力 |
资源环境综合承载力研究中,综合性与区域性、人地关系是支撑其发展的重要理论框架。如何构建综合的评价体系使之更具备研究和实践的应用价值是近年来探寻的热点。当前,对资源环境综合承载力的研究前沿主要体现在以下几方面：①资源环境承载力评价指标体系的扩展及综合性;②资源环境综合承载力与人地关系的调适;③综合研究方法在相关研究领域的应用;④资源环境承载力的时空动态。
目前,资源环境综合承载能力研究中指标体系包含内容愈加广泛。根据承载对象的不同,研究者从经济、社会、环境和资源条件等方面进行不同目标层或要素层的设定。例如,针对大型煤矿矿区,吴良兴(2009)以综合评价法为手段,通过分析研究区的资源环境现状,构建矿区资源环境承载力评价指标体系,包括矿产资源、水资源、土地资源、林业资源、旅游资源、大气环境、水环境、土壤环境8个方面;并选取了储采比、人均煤炭资源占有量、人均耕地面积占有量、森林覆盖率、单位面积年客流量、CO2年排放总量、COD排放总量、工业固废处置利用率等20个主要评价指标,评价其资源环境承载力水平。姚治华等(2010)基于地质环境承载力的概念,从资源、环境、调节和社会经济四个方面构建了地质环境承载力评价指标体系,借助基于熵值—AHP的集对分析模型评价大庆市地质环境承载力。针对近海环境,Lin等(2011)在中国转型发展迅速的环渤海地区的13个城市,选取水资源、大气、地表水和近海环境四大要素,通过整合的综合指数来定量表征资源环境承载力。上述研究,体现了资源环境承载力评价指标体系的构建正向着综合性、区域性和广泛性的方向发展。
城市发展与资源环境承载力的交互是人地关系的典型表现形式。近年来,城市发展的超承载力问题已呈蔓延趋势,如何为城市居民提供优质生活环境已成为城市规划和管理者的重大挑战。Wang S P等(2017)建立了沿海地区污染源、汇、运移及转换等自然关系的综合定量评价指标体系,明确了21个控制因素中的5个高级别控制因子(分别为污废水排除、家畜生产、氨氮排放、河流径流和废水处理),研究揭示了青岛资源环境的超载现象,并提出未来缓解人地矛盾的环境修复任务,包括扩大公共污水处理系统、增加污水处理量、调整产业结构以减少排污和扩大绿地面积;同时,还应实施陆源污染物减量和人工堤防清淤、自然海岸线修复等流域修复工程。新型城镇化过程及资源环境承载力预警能为区域发展提供决策依据。通过构建城镇化过程中资源环境承载力响应关系指标体系,运用响应指数和响应度识别出两者关系演变过程的主要因素,刘凯等(2016)提出将环境规制作为产业结构调整的动力,在环境规制下调整产业结构是促进城镇化与资源环境承载力协调发展主要方向。Jiang等(2017)利用压力、承载、转化三维指标,对8个海洋工业园区的资源环境承载力进行评估,结论为大多数园区承载力状态低于区域实际承载力,在此基础上探讨了调控方向：环保状况较差的工业园区,需集中精力提高资源利用效率、缓解生态环境压力,而省市级政府亟需出台相关政策法规,保障海洋高效产业园区发展。当前,关于资源环境综合承载力的人地关系研究表明,各级政府在统筹区域发展和承载力关系中发挥着重要作用,通过调整产业结构、推进资源优化配置、合理引导城市规划能为维持和提升区域资源环境综合承载力发挥关键作用。
综合研究理论与方法的兴起,推动了资源环境承载力模型研究的发展。层次分析法、主成分分析法以及DPSIR(驱动—压力—状态—影响—响应)等分析框架和概念模型在文献中使用频率较高。综合的定量评价方法包括：生态足迹法(David et al, 2015)、能值分析法(Peng et al, 2016)、系统动态模型(Gong et al, 2009; Meng et al, 2009)等。由于国内外广泛采用的生态足迹法贸易数据的缺乏,无法准确地测算出资源能源输入输出量(张可云等, 2011)。为解决这一问题,Ewing等(2012)建立了多区域输入输出建模框架(multi-regional input-output, MRIO),采用矩阵结构提高了研究框架透明度,整合并连接了碳足迹、水足迹和生态足迹三项指标,结果表明：通过与碳足迹核算方法的协调、全球经济部门供应链和国际贸易流程的清晰表达,能显著改进水足迹和生态足迹的核算,使得评估结果更加可靠。张可云等(2011)采用生产性生态足迹的测算方法分析比较中国31个省(市、区)生态承载力,并讨论区域间生态破坏转移问题,可为实现区域协调发展提供决策参考。在系统动态模型方面,由于系统动力模型将土地看作一个动态系统,运用动力学的基本原理,从整体上分析人口、资源、环境和发展之间的关系,是近年来评估资源环境综合承载力的热点方向(Wang C H et al, 2017)。通过建立系统动力模型,能够模拟不同策略下人口变化与承载潜力之间的动态关系,从而在政策层面指导社会经济活动,已广泛应用于区域经济、城市和城镇化、自然资源与生态系统管理及环境规划管理等领域。例如,对北京城市湿地资源进行分析和预测时,研究者根据12个核心变量,建立系统动力模型模拟北京市2006-2030年人口、经济、供水和需求变化趋势以及水环境压力,并由此提出了5个优化案例以改善区域湿地资源承载力(Wang C H et al, 2017)。
此外,近年来研究者在承载力预警方面引入了生态系统服务评估、信息论等方法,丰富了资源环境综合承载力的预警研究。例如,徐卫华等(2017)从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,采用生态系统服务功能和生态退化状况表征生态系统健康度,作为预警指标进行评估,由此在京津冀地区开展案例研究,并为划定区域生态保护红线、生态恢复工程以及长效监测考核和生态补偿机制提供对策建议。为有效评估农村公共环境安全承载力风险水平和发展趋势,Huang等(2018)提出了基于风险熵的环境承载力评估模型：构建遗传投影寻踪模型,将风险值与时间序列拟合,运用信息扩散论将各样本风险值划分为不同等级,采用风险熵的计算方法评估了农村环境承载力。通过汶川县实证分析表明,遗传投影寻踪方法能进行多维数据的有效一维投影,并全面反映农村环境承载力风险;不同的风险等级能反映各级农村环境承载力面临风险的可能性,可为决策者提供参考;而风险熵的评估较为准确地反映了农村环境承载力系统的异常水平,为风险预警提供了可信参考。上述模型的构建和方法的运用,可为相关部门有效预测环境承载力及风险预测提供及时的参考和借鉴。
当前,综合资源环境承载力时空动态研究呈现出长期监测结果与多因子预测相融合的研究趋势。采用基于时间序列的因子分析方法表明：不同区域的综合承载力呈现出动态变化区域及空间分异特征。Liu等(2012)对长江三角洲16座城市不同时期的城市聚集区主要影响因素进行了资源环境综合承载力评价,表明承载力在空间上呈显著的梯度变化：上海、苏州、杭州、宁波等发达城市面临较高的承载力压力;在时间维度,变异系数呈明显扩大趋势：2000年到2008年,土地及水资源承载力已成为制约社会经济发展的两大关键因素。此外,相对资源承载力模型突出了自然资源与经济资源的优势和劣势之间的互补性,被广泛用于区域资源环境综合承载力时空动态实证分析,成为评价区域可持续发展的重要标准(黄常锋, 2011)。例如,李旭东(2013)运用并改进了相对资源承载力计算方法,研究1995-2006年贵州乌蒙山区自然资源、经济资源、生活水平的相对承载力和综合承载力的时空动态变化过程,结果表明,山区大部分县域综合承载力长期处于超载状态,且随着时间的变化,综合资源承载力超载的县域在动态变化上具有一定的稳定性,该项研究对于统筹区域发展规划、协调山区人口、经济发展与资源利用的关系具有重要指导意义。
资源环境承载力评价是引导资源空间配置向可持续性转变的重要依据,可具体支撑如生态红线、城镇开发边界三条控制线划定、国土空间整治与优化等应用需求(Wang et al, 2016)。其中,生态红线划定基于资源环境承载力评价的结果,并与生态脆弱性、生态系统服务功能评价、自然生态风险等相结合,划定不同等级的生态红线区。同时,资源环境承载力研究广泛应用于自然保护区和国家公园的设计、选址及布局。例如,Navarro Jurado等(2013)将海岸带自然保护区承载力与旅游者数量建立关系,识别了沿海旅游地的社会承载能力,从而为缓解游客超载带来的负面影响提供建议;Salerno等(2013)将国家公园与缓冲区水、土壤资源环境承载力联合研究,为旅游区选址规划及后续管理提供支持。上述相关研究方法充分考虑了研究对象现状和规划管理的适宜性。
目前,服务于产业规划的资源环境承载力研究主要分为两类：一是资源环境承载力约束条件下的产业规划研究,包括产业规模调整、产业布局、产业结构调整和产业转移,如从提高经济效益角度提出产业布局的优化措施(邬娜等, 2015);建立基于环境承载力的产业结构升级与空间优化关系,促进环境保护与经济发展互利平衡的实现(Zhou et al, 2017)。另一类是产业发展对资源环境承载力的影响研究,包括产业生态足迹和产业资源环境影响评价。例如,通过区域工业发展模式和环境承载力之间的关系辨识,评估未来工业水污染压力的空间分布,为污染控制与区域环境承载能力协调适应提供可选的排放控制策略(Zhao et al, 2009; Li et al, 2016);通过对经济、社会、潜力和环境4个维度对国家层面的能源资源承载力的可再生利用评估,服务于产业空间结构的优化分析(Martire et al, 2015)。随着新兴产业的发展,未来研究将侧重新兴产业发展的资源研究、特殊环境要求或新型环境影响研究以及循环经济所带来的资源承载力变动等问题(钟维琼等, 2016)。
资源环境承载力评价是灾后恢复重建规划的基础和重建工作的前提。2008年汶川大地震发生后,国务院将资源环境承载能力评价作为恢复重建规划的一项基础性工作,评价结果作为灾后重建规划的重要依据。至此,资源环境承载力从满足国家重大战略需求出发,开发综合集成评价技术,评价结果被相关国家规划直接采纳(樊杰, 2010; Gao et al, 2011)。在进行灾后重建资源环境承载力评价时,需选取具有区域典型性的评价指标,将通适性指标和特征性指标相结合,在情景模拟时应充分估计地域系统的开放性,将固定性指标和流动性指标相结合(樊杰, 2013)。例如,在汶川地震灾区(Gao et al, 2011)、青海省玉树地震灾区(樊杰, 2010)等重建规划工作中,以综合承载力指数排序和承载人口数量测算为主要目标,制定了“确定可承载的人口总规模,提出适宜人口居住和城乡居民点建设的范围以及产业发展导向”的目标任务;通过集成运用遥感与实地应急评估,比较分析灾前和灾后承载力变化;并采用自然地理条件、次生灾害危险性、社会经济发展基础等大类指标,综合评估了自然本底和开发现状交互关系的灾区综合承载力。
承载力监测预警机制的建立,成为全面深化生态文明体制改革的一项重大任务(樊杰等, 2017)。作为生态文明体制改革总体方案的一项重要举措,国土资源的监测预警是综合资源环境承载力研究的切入点和落脚点。通过资源环境综合承载力研究能因地制宜地制定差异化、可操作的管控制度,并由此规范空间开发秩序,合理控制空间开发强度。最新版的资源环境承载力预警体系以县级行政区为评价单元,分为陆域评价和海域评价;采取“短板效应”原理确定资源环境超载程度的3种类型,并结合资源环境耗损过程评价划分为5个预警等级,通过陆海统筹校验最终形成资源环境承载力“三类五级”评价方案(樊杰等, 2017)。在小尺度水平的资源环境承载力预警评价中,从区级和街道级两个层次构建了资源环境承载力预警评价指标体系,对资源环境承载力整体-局部的分配问题进行了探索与解答(叶有华等, 2017)。
当前,国内外资源环境承载力研究取得了丰硕的成果。然而,对处于中等尺度的区域,自然资源与环境、经济社会发展的交互作用非常复杂,具有时间动态性和空间分异性,而且同时受到跨尺度因素的影响,使得资源环境承载力的研究仍然面临着严峻挑战,还需在以下方面进行深化：
(1) 与生态文明建设的新形势紧密结合,进行承载力研究内容的开拓创新
全球范围内生态保护与修复、可持续发展等在学术界和管理领域的关注度日益提高。联合国提出了面向2030年的可持续发展目标体系,成为各国努力的方向。中国已将推进生态文明建设作为重要国家发展战略之一,加大自然生态系统和环境保护力度、优化国土空间开发格局、加强生态文明制度建设等重要内容的落实,均需要资源环境承载力研究的有效支撑。20世纪90年代末以来,国家开展了一系列重大生态保护和建设工程(如天然林保护、退耕还林还草等),推动区域生态环境发生了显著变化。例如,随着退耕护岸林(草)工程成效的不断显现,黄土高原成为近年来中国植被恢复最显著的地区。然而,面对区域环境变化的新形势,必须开展资源环境承载力的综合研究,揭示社会经济需求和自然生态需求相结合的承载力阈值范围,以防范风险、促进区域可持续发展(Feng et al, 2016)。
(2) 完善评价指标体系,创新承载力研究方法评价指标体系。资源环境承载力评价指标涉及资源、环境、生态、社会经济等诸多系统,不同系统的评价指标之间又相互影响、相互制约。因此,如何更好的融合物质、能量、信息、空间和时间五位一体的方法将成为承载力研究必须关注和解决的问题(曾晨等, 2011)。构建差异化指标体系对不同区域的资源环境承载力进行科学认知不失为合理且具有效率的研究方法,各系统之间模糊界面的影响分析、相互关系和独立性,以及承载力的时间动态性等也值得进一步深入研究(Wang et al, 2015)。此外,随着大数据、数据分发与共享、GIS等软件的普及和广泛使用,面向资源环境承载力的大数据管理、数据挖掘、综合评价和模拟模型构建、决策支持工具开发等也是需要加强的重点方向。
(3) 需更加重视资源环境承载力的时间动态和空间相互作用。随着全球化的发展,不同尺度之间关联研究和不同区域之间的资源环境相互作用不断加强,远程关联与耦合(Tele-connection和Telecoupling)的问题成为生态环境领域研究的一大前沿和热点。例如,流域尺度与城市尺度的研究承载力结论存在差异,只有明确承载力的范围选择,考虑城市与流域资源环境的关联,加强流域尺度与城市尺度的融合研究,才能更准确的评价承载力(Nakayama et al, 2010; Zhang et al, 2014)。同时,自然资源处于持续变化中,使得承载体表现为动态性;而人类生产生活活动的内容、规模持续变化也使得承载对象表现出更强烈的动态性。因此,不同尺度不同范围内各系统要素之间存在内在的相互作用与关联、动态变化,在人类的技术和组织管理水平进步的背景下,都将会带来承载弹性的提升。因此,考虑资源环境承载力时间动态、空间互动及时空耦合下的适应性综合研究也成为未来研究的难点和前沿科学问题。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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生态文明建设的首要任务是优化国土空间开发格局,实施主体功能区战略、形成主体功能区布局是优化空间格局的战略重点。文章从发达国家开展国土空间规划的特征分析入手,结合我国长期缺失全国国土远景规划所产生的空间开发无序、区域发展失衡以及各地盲目推进工业化和城市化等问题的解剖,阐释了主体功能区战略在尊重资源环境承载能力、区分不同地区主体功能、控制开发强度和调整空间结构以及生态产品理论和应用等方面的创新,论证了主体功能区规划在我国国土空间布局规划体系中的战略性、基础性和约束性地位。进而从"1、2、3、4"战略任务入手论述了优化国土空间开发格局的主要方面:"1"是建设一个美好家园,"2"是促进陆地与海洋两大国土空间的统筹发展,"3"是构建我国国土空间的城市化、农业和生态安全3大战略格局,"4"是形成我国优化、重点、限制和禁止开发4类主体功能区域。最后,从咨询建议的提出、指标体系建立、国土空间评价、区划草案研制以及构建基础理论、研制技术规程等方面,系统介绍了中科院研究团队在过去10年间面向主体功能区战略的形成所发挥的科技支撑作用。
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生态文明建设的首要任务是优化国土空间开发格局,实施主体功能区战略、形成主体功能区布局是优化空间格局的战略重点。文章从发达国家开展国土空间规划的特征分析入手,结合我国长期缺失全国国土远景规划所产生的空间开发无序、区域发展失衡以及各地盲目推进工业化和城市化等问题的解剖,阐释了主体功能区战略在尊重资源环境承载能力、区分不同地区主体功能、控制开发强度和调整空间结构以及生态产品理论和应用等方面的创新,论证了主体功能区规划在我国国土空间布局规划体系中的战略性、基础性和约束性地位。进而从"1、2、3、4"战略任务入手论述了优化国土空间开发格局的主要方面:"1"是建设一个美好家园,"2"是促进陆地与海洋两大国土空间的统筹发展,"3"是构建我国国土空间的城市化、农业和生态安全3大战略格局,"4"是形成我国优化、重点、限制和禁止开发4类主体功能区域。最后,从咨询建议的提出、指标体系建立、国土空间评价、区划草案研制以及构建基础理论、研制技术规程等方面,系统介绍了中科院研究团队在过去10年间面向主体功能区战略的形成所发挥的科技支撑作用。
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全国资源环境承载能力预警(2016版)的基点和技术方法进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
本文探讨了资源环境承载能力预警机制的设计基点,阐释了资源环境承载能力、承载能力评价和预警的基本概念,创建了资源环境承载能力预警的理论模型,并制定了2016版全国资源环境承载能力预警的技术流程、评价体系、集成方法与类型划分等技术要点,为全国资源环境承载能力预警全面试行提供技术参考。研究表明:增长极限论是资源环境承载能力预警的理论基础;以县级行政区为评价单元的资源环境承载能力预警,分别开展陆域评价和海域评价,二者均包括基础评价和专项评价两部分,基础评价采用统一指标体系对所有县级行政区进行全覆盖评价,专项评价根据主体功能区规划选取特征指标对优化开发、重点开发和限制开发区域进行评价;采取"短板效应"原理确定资源环境超载、临界超载和不超载3种类型,结合资源环境耗损过程评价划分红色(极重警)、橙色(重警)、黄色(中警)、蓝色(轻警)和绿色(无警)5个预警等级,通过陆海统筹校验确定资源环境承载能力"三类五级"评价方案。
Basic points and progress in technical methods of early-warning of the national resource and environmental carrying capacity (V 2016) [J].https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
本文探讨了资源环境承载能力预警机制的设计基点,阐释了资源环境承载能力、承载能力评价和预警的基本概念,创建了资源环境承载能力预警的理论模型,并制定了2016版全国资源环境承载能力预警的技术流程、评价体系、集成方法与类型划分等技术要点,为全国资源环境承载能力预警全面试行提供技术参考。研究表明:增长极限论是资源环境承载能力预警的理论基础;以县级行政区为评价单元的资源环境承载能力预警,分别开展陆域评价和海域评价,二者均包括基础评价和专项评价两部分,基础评价采用统一指标体系对所有县级行政区进行全覆盖评价,专项评价根据主体功能区规划选取特征指标对优化开发、重点开发和限制开发区域进行评价;采取"短板效应"原理确定资源环境超载、临界超载和不超载3种类型,结合资源环境耗损过程评价划分红色(极重警)、橙色(重警)、黄色(中警)、蓝色(轻警)和绿色(无警)5个预警等级,通过陆海统筹校验确定资源环境承载能力"三类五级"评价方案。
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相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析 [J].
本文首先分析了相对资源承载力模型的不足，对其进行了四点改进:①在原模型基础上加入水和能源承载力;②为克服原模型中权重任意取值的不足，提出了基于优势资源牵引效应和劣势资源束缚效应原则下的相对综合承载力模型;③给出了新的承载状态划分标准;④进一步给出各状态下承载状态度标准。其次本文应用改进后的模型横向实证分析了2008年全国31个省及直辖市的可持续发展情况，以及从纵向上对新疆2000年-2007年的可持续发展情况进行了实证分析。最后本文对改进后的模型进行了评价，并提出了更一般化的理论模型。
Model modifications and empirical analysis of the relative carrying capacity of resources [J].
本文首先分析了相对资源承载力模型的不足，对其进行了四点改进:①在原模型基础上加入水和能源承载力;②为克服原模型中权重任意取值的不足，提出了基于优势资源牵引效应和劣势资源束缚效应原则下的相对综合承载力模型;③给出了新的承载状态划分标准;④进一步给出各状态下承载状态度标准。其次本文应用改进后的模型横向实证分析了2008年全国31个省及直辖市的可持续发展情况，以及从纵向上对新疆2000年-2007年的可持续发展情况进行了实证分析。最后本文对改进后的模型进行了评价，并提出了更一般化的理论模型。
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贵州乌蒙山区资源相对承载力的时空动态变化 [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2013020004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
贵州乌蒙山区是国家划定的18片贫困区之一,随着人口增长和社会经济发展的加速,山区人地资源矛盾日趋突出,已严重阻碍了乌蒙山区社会经济的可持续发展。运用并改进了相对资源承载力的研究思路和计算方法,研究了1995~2006年贵州乌蒙山区自然资源、经济资源、生活水平的相对承载力和综合承载力的时空动态变化过程。对于认清和把握乌蒙山区资源承载力变化规律,完善山区资源环境承载力研究成果具有重要指导意义。研究表明:贵州乌蒙山区人口严重超载,而承载人口的主要资源为土地资源,经济资源和生活水平承载力偏低;相对资源承载力空间差异显著,绝大多数县域综合承载力均处于超载状态。
Tempo-spatial analysis of the relative carrying capacity of population and resources in Wumeng mountainous areas of Guizhou [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2013020004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
贵州乌蒙山区是国家划定的18片贫困区之一,随着人口增长和社会经济发展的加速,山区人地资源矛盾日趋突出,已严重阻碍了乌蒙山区社会经济的可持续发展。运用并改进了相对资源承载力的研究思路和计算方法,研究了1995~2006年贵州乌蒙山区自然资源、经济资源、生活水平的相对承载力和综合承载力的时空动态变化过程。对于认清和把握乌蒙山区资源承载力变化规律,完善山区资源环境承载力研究成果具有重要指导意义。研究表明:贵州乌蒙山区人口严重超载,而承载人口的主要资源为土地资源,经济资源和生活水平承载力偏低;相对资源承载力空间差异显著,绝大多数县域综合承载力均处于超载状态。
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区域地震灾害承载力评价的突变模型 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2011.11.002 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为提高区域地震灾害承载力评价的准确性,基于拓扑学与系统论的基本原理,运用突变理论,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价突变模型.首先,在区域地震灾害承载力与突变理论结合分析的基础上,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价指标体系；其次,进行原始数据标准化处理；接着采用相应的突变归一公式和突变原则进行递归计算区域地震灾害承载力突变隶属值,并与评判标准比较得其地震灾害承载力等级；最后计算29个城市的地震灾害承载力,并将所得计算结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法所得结果进行比较.结果表明,该方法评价结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法的评价结果基本一致.
Catastrophe model for evaluating regional earthquake-disaster-carrying capability [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-3033.2011.11.002 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为提高区域地震灾害承载力评价的准确性,基于拓扑学与系统论的基本原理,运用突变理论,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价突变模型.首先,在区域地震灾害承载力与突变理论结合分析的基础上,构建区域地震灾害承载力评价指标体系；其次,进行原始数据标准化处理；接着采用相应的突变归一公式和突变原则进行递归计算区域地震灾害承载力突变隶属值,并与评判标准比较得其地震灾害承载力等级；最后计算29个城市的地震灾害承载力,并将所得计算结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法所得结果进行比较.结果表明,该方法评价结果与模糊可变识别评价方法、指数评价方法的评价结果基本一致.
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人地关系视角下城镇化的资源环境承载力响应: 以山东省为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2016.09.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
城镇化与资源环境承载力的关系是复杂人地关系的特殊表现形式,以及地理学面向人文要素和自然要素综合集成与相互关系研究的重要内容.在“人地协调、多维视角、综合集成”理念下建立“城镇化与资源环境承载力关系”概念模型,运用响应指数和响应度公式,对1991-2014年山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应关系进行了实证研究,运用回归分析得出响应关系演变的主要影响因素,研究结果表明:①山东省城镇化综合指数整体呈现不断上升趋势,资源环境承载力综合指数整体呈现“先上升、后下降”的变化趋势;②山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应指数由“正响应”转变为“负响应”,城镇化的资源环境承载力响应度由相对稳定转变为急剧提高;③环境规制和产业结构是影响山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应关系演变的两大主要因素.
Urbanization's resource environmental bearing capacity response from man-land relationship perspective: Take Shandong province as an example [J].https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2016.09.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
城镇化与资源环境承载力的关系是复杂人地关系的特殊表现形式,以及地理学面向人文要素和自然要素综合集成与相互关系研究的重要内容.在“人地协调、多维视角、综合集成”理念下建立“城镇化与资源环境承载力关系”概念模型,运用响应指数和响应度公式,对1991-2014年山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应关系进行了实证研究,运用回归分析得出响应关系演变的主要影响因素,研究结果表明:①山东省城镇化综合指数整体呈现不断上升趋势,资源环境承载力综合指数整体呈现“先上升、后下降”的变化趋势;②山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应指数由“正响应”转变为“负响应”,城镇化的资源环境承载力响应度由相对稳定转变为急剧提高;③环境规制和产业结构是影响山东省城镇化的资源环境承载力响应关系演变的两大主要因素.
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东江湖库区水环境承载力评价及协调发展研究 [J].
Dongjiang lake reservoir area’ evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity and the research of the coordinated development [J].
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首都圈人口空间分布优化策略: 基于土地资源承载力估测 [J].
<p>采用单项指标估测, 分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性, 提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力, 京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和, 环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大, 冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为: 首都圈北部生态屏障建设区, 人口限制发展; 中部都市功能优化区, 人口控制增长; 东部人口产业沿海集聚区, 人口鼓励增长; 南部绿色空间优化区, 人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展, 应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策, 整体提升人口承载力, 并加大区域统筹力度, 科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。</p>
Optimization strategy of population distribution in capital metropolitan region: Based on land resources carrying capacity evaluation [J].
<p>采用单项指标估测, 分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性, 提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力, 京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和, 环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大, 冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为: 首都圈北部生态屏障建设区, 人口限制发展; 中部都市功能优化区, 人口控制增长; 东部人口产业沿海集聚区, 人口鼓励增长; 南部绿色空间优化区, 人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展, 应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策, 整体提升人口承载力, 并加大区域统筹力度, 科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。</p>
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山东半岛矿产资源承载力及保障程度研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-4135.2016.01.006 URL 摘要
矿产资源承载力及保障程度研究是实施可持续发展的重要研究内容之一.本文在分析山东半岛矿产资源成矿地质特点、分布及储量现状基础之上,建立了基于层次分析法的矿产资源矿种优势分析模型,并应用到研究区的矿产资源矿种优势评价上.在此基础上对山东半岛五个主要地市的矿产资源潜在价值及承载力进行了综合分析,然后对研究区的矿产资源保障能力及需求进行了模型预测分析.结果显示:山东半岛地区主要优势矿种为金、煤、石墨、铜、银、滑石、饰面花岗岩矿;矿产资源承载力分为四个等级:烟台市为优等级别,潍坊市为良好级别,青岛市为一般级别,威海市和日照市为较弱级别.能源矿产保障程度相对较好,金属矿产除金矿外,其他矿种保障程度都较低.
Study on the mineral resource carrying capacity and protection degree in Shandong Peninsula [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-4135.2016.01.006 URL 摘要
矿产资源承载力及保障程度研究是实施可持续发展的重要研究内容之一.本文在分析山东半岛矿产资源成矿地质特点、分布及储量现状基础之上,建立了基于层次分析法的矿产资源矿种优势分析模型,并应用到研究区的矿产资源矿种优势评价上.在此基础上对山东半岛五个主要地市的矿产资源潜在价值及承载力进行了综合分析,然后对研究区的矿产资源保障能力及需求进行了模型预测分析.结果显示:山东半岛地区主要优势矿种为金、煤、石墨、铜、银、滑石、饰面花岗岩矿;矿产资源承载力分为四个等级:烟台市为优等级别,潍坊市为良好级别,青岛市为一般级别,威海市和日照市为较弱级别.能源矿产保障程度相对较好,金属矿产除金矿外,其他矿种保障程度都较低.
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基于AHP和GIS耦合模型的山东半岛地质环境承载力评价 [J].
Evaluation of geo-environmental carrying capacity in Shandong Peninsula based on AHP and GIS coupling model [J].
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陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区人工草地的土壤水分植被承载力 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.18.020 URL Magsci 摘要
土壤水分植被承载力是黄土高原生态环境建设和可持续发展的核心。该文根据陕北黄土区4种不同立地条件下苜蓿地（Medicago sativa L.）连续3 a的降雨、径流、土壤水分动态和生物产量的小区定位观测结果,研究分析了自然降水与土壤水分补给、土壤水分补给与地上部生物量、地上部生物量与土壤水分消耗的关系；并采用FAO法和水量平衡法分别计算出了苜蓿地土壤水分的承载力。结果表明：苜蓿地土壤水分补给量与地上部生物量呈线性关系，地上部生物量与土壤水分消耗量呈二次函数关系。用FAO法估算可得陕北黄土区土壤水分可承载的苜蓿最大产量为3 992.2～4 173.7 kg/hm2；而根据水量平衡原理计算可得陕北黄土区苜蓿地可承载的地上部生物量为2 600～3 500 kg/hm2，比FAO法低16.07%～33.52%。坡向、坡位相同时,坡度增大，承载力降低；坡向、坡度相同时，下坡承载力大于上坡；坡度、坡位相同时,南坡承载力小于北坡。
Vegetation soil water carrying capacity of artificial pasture in loess region in northern Shaanxi, China [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.18.020 URL Magsci 摘要
土壤水分植被承载力是黄土高原生态环境建设和可持续发展的核心。该文根据陕北黄土区4种不同立地条件下苜蓿地（Medicago sativa L.）连续3 a的降雨、径流、土壤水分动态和生物产量的小区定位观测结果,研究分析了自然降水与土壤水分补给、土壤水分补给与地上部生物量、地上部生物量与土壤水分消耗的关系；并采用FAO法和水量平衡法分别计算出了苜蓿地土壤水分的承载力。结果表明：苜蓿地土壤水分补给量与地上部生物量呈线性关系，地上部生物量与土壤水分消耗量呈二次函数关系。用FAO法估算可得陕北黄土区土壤水分可承载的苜蓿最大产量为3 992.2～4 173.7 kg/hm2；而根据水量平衡原理计算可得陕北黄土区苜蓿地可承载的地上部生物量为2 600～3 500 kg/hm2，比FAO法低16.07%～33.52%。坡向、坡位相同时,坡度增大，承载力降低；坡向、坡度相同时，下坡承载力大于上坡；坡度、坡位相同时,南坡承载力小于北坡。
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基于生态承载力的产业布局优化研究进展述评 [J].
从产业布局的概念出发,梳理了生态承载力与产业布局相互作用关系 的研究,总结了基于生态承载力的产业布局优化研究取得的最新进展.得出,目前针对产业布局与生态承载力关系的研究多侧重产业布局的生态承载力约束方面,而 产业布局对生态承载力的影响方面尚未有直接的研究,多数研究集中在产业布局对资源环境的影响.针对产业布局优化方面的研究多从提高经济效益角度提出优化措 施,基于生态承载力对产业布局进行优化的研究不够深入,尚未有效解决产业发展与资源环境间的矛盾.未来还应加强生态承载力与产业布局互动关系的分析研究, 进一步探索基于生态承载力的产业布局优化方法.
Review on the research progress of industrial layout optimization based on ecological carrying capacity [J].
从产业布局的概念出发,梳理了生态承载力与产业布局相互作用关系 的研究,总结了基于生态承载力的产业布局优化研究取得的最新进展.得出,目前针对产业布局与生态承载力关系的研究多侧重产业布局的生态承载力约束方面,而 产业布局对生态承载力的影响方面尚未有直接的研究,多数研究集中在产业布局对资源环境的影响.针对产业布局优化方面的研究多从提高经济效益角度提出优化措 施,基于生态承载力对产业布局进行优化的研究不够深入,尚未有效解决产业发展与资源环境间的矛盾.未来还应加强生态承载力与产业布局互动关系的分析研究, 进一步探索基于生态承载力的产业布局优化方法.
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大型煤矿矿区的资源环境承载力研究 [D].Research on the carry capacity of resources and environment for the large-scale coal mining area [D]. |
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确定大气环境承载力的烟云足迹法 [J].
本文讨论了大气承载力的定义,同时也给出了计算大气承载力的烟云足迹法的原理和计算公式,此外还给出了根据区域气象条件计算烟云足迹函数的具体算式和大气环境承载力的计算实例,烟云足迹分析法可为区域间的排污权交易提供技术基础.
Plume footprints analysis for determining the bearing capacity of atmospheric environment [J].
本文讨论了大气承载力的定义,同时也给出了计算大气承载力的烟云足迹法的原理和计算公式,此外还给出了根据区域气象条件计算烟云足迹函数的具体算式和大气环境承载力的计算实例,烟云足迹分析法可为区域间的排污权交易提供技术基础.
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区域生态承载力预警评估方法及案例研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
本文针对国家资源环境承载能力监测预警评估中生态承载力评估的需求,探讨了生态承载力及预警的定义与内涵,从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,并以京津冀地区为例开展了案例研究。主要结论为：生态承载力是指生态系统提供服务功能、预防生态问题、保障区域生态安全的能力。生态承载力预警评估的实质是评估人类活动是否及在多大程度上影响生态系统在水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙等主要服务功能的提供,是否产生了生态环境问题,是否影响到区域的生态安全。其评价流程主要包括：区域生态承载力评价指标选取及评价方法和阈值的确定、生态承载力预警状况及变化趋势分析、成因解析等内容。本文提出的生态承载力预警评价的方法及案例,可为全国及区域生态承载力的评估提供基础。
Evaluation methods and case study of regional ecological carrying capacity for early-warning [J].https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
本文针对国家资源环境承载能力监测预警评估中生态承载力评估的需求,探讨了生态承载力及预警的定义与内涵,从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,并以京津冀地区为例开展了案例研究。主要结论为：生态承载力是指生态系统提供服务功能、预防生态问题、保障区域生态安全的能力。生态承载力预警评估的实质是评估人类活动是否及在多大程度上影响生态系统在水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙等主要服务功能的提供,是否产生了生态环境问题,是否影响到区域的生态安全。其评价流程主要包括：区域生态承载力评价指标选取及评价方法和阈值的确定、生态承载力预警状况及变化趋势分析、成因解析等内容。本文提出的生态承载力预警评价的方法及案例,可为全国及区域生态承载力的评估提供基础。
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基于多维状态空间法的漓江上游生态旅游承载力空间评价及提升策略 [J].
Space differential evaluation and promotion strategy of ecotourism carrying capacity of upper reaches of Lijiang River based on the multi-level state space approach [J].
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基于集对分析的地质环境承载力研究: 以大庆市为例 [J].Evaluation of geological environment carrying capacity based on set pair analysis: A case study in Daqing [J]. |
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小尺度资源环境承载力预警评价研究: 以大鹏半岛为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2017.08.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
建立资源环境承载力监测预警机制，是生态文明制度创新的一项重要工作。已开展的资源环境承载力研究多针对大尺度区域，而针对小尺度区域开展的研究相对较少。该研究在小尺度水平，以大鹏半岛为例，分别从区级和街道级两个层次构建了资源环境承载力预警评价指标体系，定量评价了2014年大鹏半岛资源环境承载状况，对资源环境承载力整体-局部的分配问题进行了探讨。结果表明，大鹏半岛资源环境承载力总体上处于轻警状态，3个街道的综合资源环境承载状况较为一致。土地资源承载力、水资源承载力、生态资源承载力、海洋环境承载力、大气环境承载水平均较高，表现为无警或轻警水平；但地表水环境承载力和固废、交通等基础设施承载力是其短板，特别是地表水环境承载力，大鹏半岛的承载指数为0.36，处于重警水平。3个街道在单要素承载力方面存在空间差异。其中，葵涌街道的土地资源和水环境承载状况最好，大鹏街道的土地资源、水环境、基础设施承载状况最差，南澳街道的水资源承载状况最佳。研究成果可为该区域资源环境开发利用、可持续发展决策提供更精准的技术支撑，也可为其他地区的小尺度资源环境承载力监测预警体系研究提供参考借鉴。
Early-warning for environmental and resource carrying capacity on small scale: A case study of Dapeng Peninsula, Guangdong [J].https://doi.org/10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2017.08.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
建立资源环境承载力监测预警机制，是生态文明制度创新的一项重要工作。已开展的资源环境承载力研究多针对大尺度区域，而针对小尺度区域开展的研究相对较少。该研究在小尺度水平，以大鹏半岛为例，分别从区级和街道级两个层次构建了资源环境承载力预警评价指标体系，定量评价了2014年大鹏半岛资源环境承载状况，对资源环境承载力整体-局部的分配问题进行了探讨。结果表明，大鹏半岛资源环境承载力总体上处于轻警状态，3个街道的综合资源环境承载状况较为一致。土地资源承载力、水资源承载力、生态资源承载力、海洋环境承载力、大气环境承载水平均较高，表现为无警或轻警水平；但地表水环境承载力和固废、交通等基础设施承载力是其短板，特别是地表水环境承载力，大鹏半岛的承载指数为0.36，处于重警水平。3个街道在单要素承载力方面存在空间差异。其中，葵涌街道的土地资源和水环境承载状况最好，大鹏街道的土地资源、水环境、基础设施承载状况最差，南澳街道的水资源承载状况最佳。研究成果可为该区域资源环境开发利用、可持续发展决策提供更精准的技术支撑，也可为其他地区的小尺度资源环境承载力监测预警体系研究提供参考借鉴。
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流域水生态承载力研究的起源和发展 [J].
<p>流域水生态承载力的研究是近几年来从水生态的角度解决流域可持续发展问题的有效手段。通过文献综述的方法，从流域水生态承载力的起源和发展入手，对流域水生态承载力的理论基础，与相关已有研究的区别和联系进行了探讨，并对流域水生态承载力的进一步研究进行了展望。从起源上看，承载力理论、可持续发展和生态足迹理论、流域生态学理论分别是流域水生态承载力研究的基础、落脚点和支撑。从发展上看，水生态承载力是水资源和水环境承载力的有机结合和深化。从测度和评价方法上看，第一生产者的净初级生产力方法、生态足迹法、可持续发展指标法和生态系统健康等生态承载力的测度方法为流域水生态承载力的评价奠定了基础。目前流域水生态承载力的研究尚处于初级阶段，今后不论是在理论探讨还是模型应用中均应进一步体现人类与自然和谐共存的根本目的以及水体质、量辩证统一的规律，通过物质、能量、信息、空间和时间五位一体的研究方法，使流域水生态承载力的研究更具有实践意义</p>
Origination and development of the concept of aquatic ecological carrying capacity in the basin [J].
<p>流域水生态承载力的研究是近几年来从水生态的角度解决流域可持续发展问题的有效手段。通过文献综述的方法，从流域水生态承载力的起源和发展入手，对流域水生态承载力的理论基础，与相关已有研究的区别和联系进行了探讨，并对流域水生态承载力的进一步研究进行了展望。从起源上看，承载力理论、可持续发展和生态足迹理论、流域生态学理论分别是流域水生态承载力研究的基础、落脚点和支撑。从发展上看，水生态承载力是水资源和水环境承载力的有机结合和深化。从测度和评价方法上看，第一生产者的净初级生产力方法、生态足迹法、可持续发展指标法和生态系统健康等生态承载力的测度方法为流域水生态承载力的评价奠定了基础。目前流域水生态承载力的研究尚处于初级阶段，今后不论是在理论探讨还是模型应用中均应进一步体现人类与自然和谐共存的根本目的以及水体质、量辩证统一的规律，通过物质、能量、信息、空间和时间五位一体的研究方法，使流域水生态承载力的研究更具有实践意义</p>
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基于改进生态足迹模型的中国31个省级区域生态承载力实证研究 [J].
发达地区通过向欠发达地区转移污染型行业,导致污染由发达地区向欠发达地区转移。同样,在资源的开发利用过程中,生态破坏在区域之间也存在着明显的间接转移。一个地区使用了大量的生态资源,但其绝大部分资源都可能是靠输入,在这种情况下,输入资源地区的生态系统受到了很好的保护,而输出资源地区的生态系统却承受了巨大的生态压力。通过实证研究,应用改进生态足迹模型分析比较了2008年中国31个省市区生态承载力,并讨论了区域间生态破坏转移问题,为实现以生态文明为核心价值取向的区域协调发展战略目标提供决策参考。
Ecological carrying capacity of 31 provinces based on improved ecological footprint model [J].
发达地区通过向欠发达地区转移污染型行业,导致污染由发达地区向欠发达地区转移。同样,在资源的开发利用过程中,生态破坏在区域之间也存在着明显的间接转移。一个地区使用了大量的生态资源,但其绝大部分资源都可能是靠输入,在这种情况下,输入资源地区的生态系统受到了很好的保护,而输出资源地区的生态系统却承受了巨大的生态压力。通过实证研究,应用改进生态足迹模型分析比较了2008年中国31个省市区生态承载力,并讨论了区域间生态破坏转移问题,为实现以生态文明为核心价值取向的区域协调发展战略目标提供决策参考。
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城市灾害相对承载力分析与模型的建立 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2008.05.023 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
如何评价城市系统综合承灾能力,这一直是被普遍关注也是较难解决的问题。在综合型可持续发展 度评价模型的基础上建立的城市系统灾害相对承载力评价模型,为解决上述问题提供了新的思路。通过对城市复杂功能系统中社会子系统、经济子系统和环境子系统 的划分及其相互影响分析,找出各子系统中对承灾能力的重要影响因素,进行加权整合后分别得出社会安全指数、经济“软”指数、环境指数和基础设施指数,应用 这些承灾能力指数建立了灾害相对承载力模型。建模计算过程中发现因素量化方式的选取和权重的确定是比较重要的,会影响灾害相对承载力的合理取值,因此以经 济“软”指数为例,提出了用协调度系数乘积代替原计算式值以使其取值范围在合理区间内的解决方式。
Analysis and modeling of urban relative disaster-bearing capacity [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2008.05.023 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
如何评价城市系统综合承灾能力,这一直是被普遍关注也是较难解决的问题。在综合型可持续发展 度评价模型的基础上建立的城市系统灾害相对承载力评价模型,为解决上述问题提供了新的思路。通过对城市复杂功能系统中社会子系统、经济子系统和环境子系统 的划分及其相互影响分析,找出各子系统中对承灾能力的重要影响因素,进行加权整合后分别得出社会安全指数、经济“软”指数、环境指数和基础设施指数,应用 这些承灾能力指数建立了灾害相对承载力模型。建模计算过程中发现因素量化方式的选取和权重的确定是比较重要的,会影响灾害相对承载力的合理取值,因此以经 济“软”指数为例,提出了用协调度系数乘积代替原计算式值以使其取值范围在合理区间内的解决方式。
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产业发展与资源环境承载力研究综述 [J].https://doi.org/10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20161226.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
文章梳理了国内近十几年来产业发展与资源环境承载力研究成果，发现目前的研究主要分为两类：1）资源环境承载力约束下的产业规划研究；2）产业发展对资源环境承载力的影响研究。这些研究重点关注的问题主要有3类：产业转型的方向选择问题，沿海产业向中西部地区转移问题，以及产业的外部成本核算问题。通过分析，文章认为随着新兴产业的发展未来研究可以侧重新兴产业发展所带来的战略新兴矿产资源、特殊环境要求或新型环境影响、循环经济所带来的一次资源承载力变动等问题。
Research overview of industrial development and resource environment carrying capacity [J].https://doi.org/10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20161226.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
文章梳理了国内近十几年来产业发展与资源环境承载力研究成果，发现目前的研究主要分为两类：1）资源环境承载力约束下的产业规划研究；2）产业发展对资源环境承载力的影响研究。这些研究重点关注的问题主要有3类：产业转型的方向选择问题，沿海产业向中西部地区转移问题，以及产业的外部成本核算问题。通过分析，文章认为随着新兴产业的发展未来研究可以侧重新兴产业发展所带来的战略新兴矿产资源、特殊环境要求或新型环境影响、循环经济所带来的一次资源承载力变动等问题。
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| [25] |
Ecological carrying capacity for intensive tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) cage aquaculture in a large hydroelectrical reservoir in Southeastern Brazil [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaeng.2015.02.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Cage culture of tilapia ( Oreochromis niloticus ) in large reservoirs is an emergent aquaculture practice in Brazil. Due to the availability of large amounts of suitable quality waters in hydroelectric dams, there is a large but still undetermined potential for cage aquaculture in the upper Paraná River basin. Sustainable aquaculture production should consider assessment of ecological carrying capacity for rational use of natural resources such as water bodies. The present survey estimates the ecological carrying capacity for tilapia cage culture in several sites on a large reservoir of “Ilha Solteira” upper Paraná River basin, Southeastern Brazil. Ecological carrying capacity was estimated based on the Dillon and Rigler (1975) mass balance model, considering limnological and farming field data to evaluate area-specific Phosphorus loads that can be assimilated in these environments. Using average farming data of feed composition, tilapia ( O. niloticus ) whole body composition and Feed Conversion Rate (FCR), the estimated emission of Phosphorus per ton of fish produced was 14.802kg02P02ton 611 . Modeling provided evidence for the importance of feed Phosphorus content and availability for determination of total allowable production, as well as the relevance of proper inputs of limnological field data. When field data was collected, only two sites (Ponte Pensa and Dourados) had aquaculture activities; as aquaculture is expanding, limnological information provided in the present study is a registry of conditions found before the massive aquaculture development. Production estimated to the reservoir as a whole (156,00002ton) is more than fivefold the pooled production (30,00002ton) of the fifteen selected sites; if production estimated to the reservoir as a whole cluster around a few best sites, than effects on water quality is expected to be even more drastic. The limit of 1% occupancy by aquaculture posed by Brazilian government is not an effective safeguard against excessive eutrophication, and detailed limnological studies are demanded for each inlet assigned for cage aquaculture. The impact of cage fish farming on the aquatic environment by the release of nutrients that affect water quality can not only bring about conflict with multiple users, but also primarily exert a negative feedback effect in the cage operations themselves.
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| [26] |
Integrating ecological and water footprint accounting in a multi-regional input-output framework [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.02.025 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Carbon, ecological, and water footprints (CF, EF, and WF) are accounting tools that can be used to understand the connection between consumption activities and environmental pressures on the Earth's atmosphere, bioproductive areas, and freshwater resources. These indicators have been gaining acceptance from researchers and policymakers but are not harmonized with one another, and ecological and water footprints are lacking in their representation of product supply chains. In this paper we integrate existing methods for calculating EF and WF within a multi-regional input utput (MRIO) modelling framework that has already been successfully applied for CF estimation. We introduce a new MRIO method for conserving the high degree of product detail found in existing physical EF and WF accounts. Calculating EF and WF in this way is consistent with the current best practice for CF accounting, making results more reliable and easier to compare across the three indicators. We discuss alternatives for linking the MRIO model and the footprint datasets and the implications for results. The model presented here is novel and offers significant improvements in EF and WF accounting through harmonization of methods with CF accounting, preservation of product-level detail, comprehensive inclusion of sectors of the global economy, and clear representation of flows along supply chains and international trade linkages. The matrix organization of the model improves transparency and provides a structure upon which further improvements in footprint calculation can be built. The model described here is the first environmentally extended MRIO model that harmonizes EF and WF accounts and aligns physical unit data of product use with standard economic and environmental accounting.
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| [27] |
Revegetation in China's Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3092 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Revegetation of degraded ecosystems provides opportunities for carbon sequestration and bioenergy production(1,2). However, vegetation expansion inwater-limited areas creates potentially conflicting demands for water between the ecosystem and humans(3). Current understanding of these competing demands is still limited(4). Here, we study the semi-arid Loess Plateau in China, where the 'Grain to Green' large-scale revegetation programme has been in operation since 1999. As expected, we found that the new planting has caused both net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) to increase. Also the increase of ET has induced a significant (p < 0.001) decrease in the ratio of river runoff to annual precipitation across hydrological catchments. From currently revegetated areas and human water demand, we estimate a threshold of NPP of 400 +/- 5 g C m(-2) yr(-1) above which the population will suffer water shortages. NPP in this region is found to be already close to this limit. The threshold of NPP could change by 36% in the worst case of climate drying and high human withdrawals, to C 43% in the best case. Our results develop a new conceptual framework to determine the critical carbon sequestration that is sustainable in terms of both ecological and socio-economic resource demands in a coupled anthropogenic-biological system.
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| [28] |
Analysis of the population capacity in the reconstruction areas of 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0861-6 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.
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| [29] |
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for carrying capacity of regional water resources [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9393-y URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Evaluation of regional water resources capacity provides a scientific basis for further water resources utilization and social economic sustainable development. This paper mainly studied on the case of Lanzhou City located in the western China. By using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and basing on the historical datum of 40 years, this paper evaluated the current situation of water resource capacity in Lanzhou and its dynamic trend. The calculation of comprehensive evaluation matrix is confirmed on the nature of membership function, the dynamic trend of water resource capacity is forecasted as well after the police was putted in practice in the future. The results showed that the utilization of water resource in Lanzhou is unreasonable now. The water resources have been developed to a considerable scale, but the water carrying capacity decreased year by year. Basing on the study, this paper suggested that the system and model of developing and utilizing water resource, policy of using water, scientific policy of water price and paying policy of water resource, saving water and protecting solution society, as well as protecting engineering related with water resource should be built up step by step.
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| [30] |
Risk prediction of rural public security environmental carrying capacity based on the risk entropy [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3037-6 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract In order to achieve effective early warning and prediction for the risk of ecological environmental carrying capacity of rural public security, this paper put forward risk assessment indicators from the perspective of rural ecological, infrastructure, social, and population carrying capacity. And then, this paper constructs risk assessment model of rural ecological environment carrying capacity on the base of genetic projection pursuit model, information diffusion theory, and risk entropy method. First of all, the genetic projection pursuit model is introduced to perform one-dimensional projection for high-dimensional data according to optimal projection direction, and the projection value is fitted with time series together, thus, the risk of rural ecological environment carrying capacity could be divided into four risk levels according to established standard; secondly, we spread the one-dimensional projection value of each sample into four risk levels by information diffusion theory, and calculate the risk entropy of rural environmental carrying capacity by risk entropy method; at last, the empirical analysis shows that the model constructed in this paper is simple and effective, which could provide effective reference and suggestion for environmental protection and public safety department.
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| [31] |
Evaluation of the carrying capacity of marine industrial parks: A case study in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.12.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Carrying capacity is an important index used to evaluate the status of regional resources, ecological environment, and regional economic development. Marine industrial parks have gained substantial attention from domestic and foreign investors and governments at all levels; in particular, these parks are an essential part of the national blue economy development plan of the Chinese government. The carrying capacity of a marine industrial park is important to all related stakeholders. In this study, an evaluation system was established based on the literature review and expert interviews by using 32 indices under three dimensions (pressure, bearing, and transformation) to determine the carrying capacity of a marine industrial park. The carrying capacity of marine industrial parks in Shandong Province was evaluated using this system across diverse dimensions by incorporating state space and analytic hierarchy processes. Results indicated that carrying capacity significantly differed among regions, parks, and specific dimensions. Comparison among different types of marine industrial parks indicated that the modern marine service industry and fishery industrial parks showed improved and efficient development with relatively high bearing rates. By contrast, the modern marine manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industrial parks were significantly underdeveloped. This study proposes academic approaches and practical implications for the involved governments and managing committees. Furthermore, suggestions on park planning, policy support, industrial cluster, and industry niversity esearch institute alliances are provided to the government and enterprise perspectives to increase the carrying capacity of marine characteristic industrial parks.
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| [32] |
Reviews on soil environmental capacity and carrying capacity [J].URL 摘要
The research introduced the current development of carrying capacity of environment and population size. Based on analysis of atmosphere environment bearing capacity and water environment carrying capacity, it further studied and summarized the soil environmental capacity on pollutants and social activities. The soil environmental capacity on pollutants is the maximum pollutants contained in a unit of soil within a limited time. Current research mainly focuses on background values, limit and migration coefficient of soil and the relevant modeling. The soil environmental capacity on social activities refers to the limit values of soil on the size,density and pace of development of social activities, while maintaining the normal structure and function of the bio-and eco-system of the soil. In other words, it not only refers to the capacity on pollutants, but also refers to the capacity on social and economic activities. Based on the research "Criteria on the standards of soil system", this report is mainly focused on the capacity of soil system on heavy metals. Further studies are still needed to come up with a universal definition of the soil environmental capacity and its theory system, as well as the standard and complete evaluating system.
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| [33] |
Arbuscular mycorrhizal effects on plant water relations and soil greenhouse gas emissions under changing moisture regimes [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2014.03.010 URL 摘要
61Mycorrhizal tomato and its non-mycorrhizal mutant were subjected to changing soil moisture regimes.61Mycorrhizal plants increased water use at higher soil moisture and tightly controlled water loss.61Mycorrhizal plants reduced soil N2O, but not CO2 emissions.61Effects of mycorrhizal plants on N2O were probably related to changes in soil moisture.
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| [34] |
Optimization of industry structure based on water environmental carrying capacity under uncertainty of the Huai River Basin within Shandong Province, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.08.074 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Optimization of the industry structure is important for the sustainable development for developing countries, e.g. China. The inexact stochastic multiple objective programming (ISMOP) which integrates stochastic programming, interval linear programming, and multiple objective programming was applied to analyze the optimization of industrial structure based on water environmental carrying capacity in Huai River Basin within Shandong Province (HRBSP). ISMOP can effectively solve the uncertainty existing in the multiple-objective optimization model and provide the information of development patterns of different industrial sectors. Results showed that the growth rates of output values from secondary industries under different qi values in the planning stage (2010 2020) will be almost 8%, and the total amounts of COD and NH3 discharge will reduce by at least 65% from 2010 to 2020 in HRBSP. In term of the secondary industrial structure, the coal, paper-making and food processing industries, as the traditional backbone industries but with high risk of water pollution, should be reduced gradually; the beverage and textile industries should be strictly limited; and conversely, the new industries, such as metallurgy and construction material industries, should be allowed to maintain the rapid development. In the context of the aquatic environment protection in the basin level, the results based on ISMOP are useful for making policies to balance the economic development and water pollutant prevention within the Huai River Basin and other river basins.
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| [35] |
Comparative analysis of environmental carrying capacity of the Bohai Sea Rim area in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1039/c1em10510h URL PMID: 22009177 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Environmental carrying capacity is an essential metric for measuring regional sustainability. Although the term "carrying capacity" has been applied for over a century, the concept definition, quantitative methods and comprehensive evaluation remain arguable. This study analyzed the carrying capacity of four environmental elements, including water resources, air, surface water and offshore sea, and integrated them into a comprehensive index to represent overall regional profiles of resources and environment. The method was then applied to thirteen municipalities in the Bohai Sea Rim area, one of the most rapidly developing regions in transition China. The results show that the comprehensive environmental carrying capacity of the municipalities in the south sub-region were largest in 2007, while that of the west municipalities were lowest. The regional economic development exceeded the overall environmental carrying capacity by 36% and the west sub-region area deserves overwhelming attention for future industrial allocation.
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| [36] |
Modeling soil-water dynamics and soil-water carrying capacity for vegetation on the Loess Plateau, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.019 URL PMID: 4906253 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The conflict between soil desiccation and the sustainable development of revegetation is increasingly important on the Loess Plateau in China. Quantitative guidelines for the selection of plant species, optimal density or biomass, and appropriate management for vegetative restoration are required to address this conflict. The objective of the study is to simulate soil–water dynamics with using the one-dimensional Simultaneous Heat and Water Transfer (SHAW) model to assess consumption process of soil water with growth of caragana and alfalfa and there optimal carrying capacity. Soil and plant parameters required by the SHAW model were calibrated and validated with meteorological and soil–water data from 2004 to 2005 and 2012, respectively. The data from the calibration and verification trials for soil water content were significantly linearly correlated based on a 95% confidence level and had average root mean square errors of 1.06 and 5.71% for caragana and 0.88 and 1.14% for alfalfa, respectively. The SHAW model was thus sufficiently accurate for simulating soil–water dynamics during 2005–2011 in response to plant growing and corresponding changes in biomass. The simulations indicated that soil water decreased within 1.0–4.002m profiles and that the depth of water depletion deepened with plant growth after vegetative restoration. Dry soil layers (DSLs) began to develop below 1.0 m after five years for caragana and after three years for alfalfa. The optimal ages of the caragana and alfalfa in the study area were thus five and three years, respectively, and the corresponding soil water carrying capacities that were maximum biomasses were 480002kg/hm 2 and 138002kg/hm 2 , respectively. These results provide useful information for designing appropriate practices of vegetative restoration to attain sustainable ecological and economic benefits on the Loess Plateau.
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| [37] |
Comprehensive carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.05.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Urban agglomeration (UA) is a complex artificial system. Carrying capacity reflects the environmental capability to support human activity. From the perspective of resource supply and demand, the paper selects 12 representative indicators to evaluate the carrying capacity of land, water, transportation and environment. 16 cities of the UA in the Yangtze River Delta, China, are selected as data samples. Time-series global factor analysis is employed to extract the principal factors of the index of 2000 and 2008. The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity of the UA tends to benign development as a whole except for Shanghai. Carrying capacities of land and water have become the two critical factors to restrict economic and social development. Based on the hierarchical cluster analysis, the values differentiate the UA into significant gradients. The coefficient of variation shows that the spatial differentiation is conspicuous and expanding. The paper also proposes some policies for the government and planners to successfully design and implement the UA.
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| [38] |
Carrying capacity assessment of forest resources: Enhancing environmental sustainability in energy production at local scale [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.11.002 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Wood fuels are recognized as a crucial energy source whose sustainable use should be ensured. To ensure sustainability, the calculation of the annual available biomass is one of the bases of forest management. The novelty of our study stem from an extended evaluation of the carrying capacity for taking into account different site-specific as well condition-specific aspects usually neglected. In the case of natural mixed forests, local management plans define the criteria to be adopted in the land management identify the main functions of the forest plots. However, for ensure sustainable forest management, ecological and technical local constraints should be assessed in details in order to quantify wood potentially available. As a standardized procedure for this comprehensive wood availability is missing, the present study propose a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) and methodology for calculating the biomass availability while supporting the local resource planning. In particular, we focus on the environmental sustainability of bio-energy production. In fact, applying the DSS, it is possible to calculate three indicators: operational carrying capacity (OCC), chip potential (CP) and technical potential (TP). Those indicators are related, respectively, to the availability of wood from forests according to local plans criteria, the potential of wood chips production, and the comparison of total available biomass with current uses. The DDS considers the actual uses of the resource, supporting local planners in properly assess the forestry sector and its possible developments. Two case studies on alpine mountain areas are presented and discussed in light of contributing to face the challenge of energy planning at local scale. The DDS allow calculating the number of chip fueled boilers which could be installed in the areas, using local resource below their carrying capacity. DSS application helps highlighting some challenges in resource planning and use at local scale.
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| [39] |
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-009-0089-x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.
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| [40] |
Simulation of water resource and its relation to urban activity in Dalian City, northern China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.06.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The NIES Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model was applied to the Biliu River catchment, northern China, to estimate the carrying capacity of the water resource there. The model reproduced well the water and heat budgets after the construction of a reservoir in the middle reach of the river. It also correctly backcasted the degradation of water resources such as river discharge and groundwater after the completion of the reservoir. Calculation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from satellite data clearly showed vegetation degradation downstream of the reservoir. Statistical analysis of a decoupling indicator based on the simulated water carrying capacity and on the satellite data of vegetation index indicated that water-related stress in Dalian city, where the economy has grown rapidly after the completement of the reservoir, has increased in accordance with the environmental degradation below the reservoir. The results indicate a close relationship between water resource and economic growth, which has greatly affected ecosystem degradation and its serious burden on the environment in the catchment. The simulated results highlight the linkage between urban development in Dalian and sustainable water resource management.
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| [41] |
Carrying capacity model applied in coastal destinations [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2013.03.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A large number of studies have been carried out on the social carrying capacity of tourists regions. Most of these studies have examined protected natural areas, the best known being Shelby and Heberlein's study. The research aim of this paper is to adapt the social carrying capacity model to a mature coastal destination, Costa del Sol. The empirical findings provide an indicator that allows us to establish the proportion of tourists who perceive overcrowding and are predisposed to leave. A cluster analysis was performed to better understand how overcrowding is perceived by tourists, the socioeconomic characteristics of tourists and the factors that may influence the capacity thresholds. The generating data will allow a scientific debate on the overcrowding problems and the growth limits.
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| [42] |
How to assess urban development potential in mountain areas? An approach of ecological carrying capacity in the view of coupled human and natural systems [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
How to assort with the relationship between mountain development and ecological protection is a key issue during the process of mountainous urban construction. Ecological carrying capacity (ECC), as the key to measuring regional sustainable development in terms of society, economy and ecology, provides an approach to assess urban development potential in mountain areas. Taking Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China as a study area, this study has explored the conceptual framework for ECC in view of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS), and has constructed an index system using aspects of ecosystem vigor (EV), resources and environmental carrying capacity (RECC), and social development ability (SDA). The results at the county level showed that: (1) Dali City had the highest EV and SDA, with a relatively good ecological background, stable geological environment, and more concentrated population and flourishing urbanization. Yunlong County occupied the best RECC for its relatively abundant stock of water and land resources. Due to well-balanced ecosystem stability maintenance, resource utilization, and human development, Yunlong County possessed the highest ECC all over the prefecture; (2) the study area can be grouped into five categories considering trade-offs between mountain development and ecological protection. That is, priority areas for conservation, priority areas for development, areas suitable for short-term conservation but long-term development, areas suitable for short-term development but long-term conversation, and areas reserved for future appropriate development. This research could help to identify the approach to sustainable mountain development from the perspective of CHANS, and to make effective contribution to urban development decision-making in mountainous areas.
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| [43] |
Multiple carrying capacities from a management-oriented perspective to operationalize sustainable tourism in protected areas [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.04.043 URL PMID: 23728182 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article describes how the concept of Tourism Carrying Capacity ( TCC ) has shifted from a uni-dimensional approach to incorporating environmental, social and political aspects. This shift is demonstrated by a study of a large, internationally popular protected area used by trekkers, the Mt. Everest Region, where qualitative data collected from visitors was combined with environmental modeling using a participatory framework. Tourist satisfaction showed positive margins for further tourist industry expansion, but current environmental conditions limit growth and further development. Space and time dimensions were also considered. We observed that the limits on growth and further development can be manipulated, with a certain degree of flexibility, through investments and regulatory measures. We hypothesized that TCC can play an important role in the management of protected areas only if it is viewed as a systematic, strategic policy tool within a planning process rather than as a unique, intrinsic number that is not modifiable. We conclude that to translate the strategy into action using standard measures, further investigation is needed to balance the various TCC components as a part of a decision-making framework that includes the integration of different cultural approaches and policy needs.
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| [44] |
When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Providing food and other products to a growing human population while safeguarding natural ecosystems and the provision of their services is a significant scientific, social and political challenge. With food demand likely to double over the next four decades, anthropization is already driving climate change and is the principal force behind species extinction, among other environmental impacts. The sustainable intensification of production on current agricultural lands has been suggested as a key solution to the competition for land between agriculture and natural ecosystems. However, few investigations have shown the extent to which these lands can meet projected demands while considering biophysical constraints. Here we investigate the improved use of existing agricultural lands and present insights into avoiding future competition for land. We focus on Brazil, a country projected to experience the largest increase in agricultural production over the next four decades and the richest nation in terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. Using various models and climatic datasets, we produced the first estimate of the carrying capacity of Brazil's 115 million hectares of cultivated pasturelands. We then investigated if the improved use of cultivated pasturelands would free enough land for the expansion of meat, crops, wood and biofuel, respecting biophysical constraints (i.e., terrain, climate) and including climate change impacts. We found that the current productivity of Brazilian cultivated pasturelands is 32 34% of its potential and that increasing productivity to 49 52% of the potential would suffice to meet demands for meat, crops, wood products and biofuels until at least 2040, without further conversion of natural ecosystems. As a result up to 14.3Gt CO2 Eq could be mitigated. The fact that the country poised to undergo the largest expansion of agricultural production over the coming decades can do so without further conversion of natural habitats provokes the question whether the same can be true in other regional contexts and, ultimately, at the global scale.
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| [45] |
Water resources carrying capacity of wetlands in Beijing: Analysis of policy optimization for urban wetland water resources management [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.204 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Based on analysis of the wetland water resources system in Beijing city, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) model for the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in Beijing city. Using a computer simulation of the SD model, the variation trends from 2006 to 2030 in population, economy, water supply and demand, and pressure on the water environment were derived for Beijing, from which 12 core variables of the model were chosen as the WRCC evaluation indices. Five cases were designed in this study. The results indicate that the WRCC will continue to decline annually by following the status quo (Case 1), since the water environment will have difficulty in supporting the long-term social and economic development of Beijing. The status quo of Beijing's socioeconomic development is therefore not sustainable. In order to address this problem, five optimization cases were put forward to improve the WRCC, and the carrying capacities and trends of the cases were compared and analyzed. Under Case 5, the WRCC (0.8 in 2030) will increase by 50%, compared to that in Case 1 (0.4 in 2030), while the water supply and demand ratio will be 20% higher than the average, and the water pollution will be 35% lower than the average in 2030. According to the analysis results, in order to guarantee sustainable utilization of water resources and social economy development in Beijing, it is necessary to increase water saving policies and pollution control investment in the future. Corresponding measures will need to be taken to ensure the implementation of water saving strategies to improve the water environment.
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| [46] |
A quality assessment of national territory use at the city level: A planning review perspective [J].https://doi.org/10.3390/su8020145 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
With increasing urbanization, the populations in China0964s cities are growing, and the cities themselves are gradually expanding. Competition for access to the national territory0964s resources is also growing. Thus, the quality of national territory use is worsening. Quality assessments on national territory use can provide a basis for solving this issue. By combining the implications of new urbanization in China, we established an assessment index system relating to the quality of national territory use, from the perspective of harmoniously developing spaces for production, living and ecology. A subjective and objective integrated weighting method was developed based on principal component analysis and planning review. Then, a comprehensive discriminative model was established to assess the quality of national territory use. The evaluation results showed that harmonious development of spaces for production, living and ecology did not occur in either the ecology-oriented or production-oriented regions. The integrated quality of national territory use in the production-oriented region had a significant advantage over that of the ecology-oriented region. The integrated quality of national territory use was highest in Changzhou0964s city center and vicinity. The results can support the implementation of China0964s new urbanization strategy and provide evidence to improve the criteria for the intensive use of national territorial resources.
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| [47] |
An integrated method for the control factor identification of resources and environmental carrying capacity in coastal zones: A case study in Qingdao, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.03.024 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Large amounts of pollution in coastal waters have placed marine ecosystems under stress. In relation to this, socio-economic development can only be considered sustainable when the ecosystem is under normal carrying capacity. However, accurately evaluating the environmental carrying capacity and efficiently remediating related problems are difficult to carry out in the absence of systematic methods to identify the influencing factors. Hence, this study established an integrated identification method, including the selection and horizontal independence test of potential factors as well as the identification of control factors and water quality effects. We identified the control factors and proposed a series of remediation measures based on the survey and statistical data from 1982 to 2015 in Qingdao and its coastal area. Results indicated 21 control factors, five of which were high-level control factors in Qingdao offshore, namely, wastewater discharge, livestock production, ammonia nitrogen emission, river runoff, sewage treatment. In addition, reclamation area was identified as significant pollution contributors in the Jiaozhou Bay. These control factors showed that the carrying capacity for land-based pollutant emissions and shoreline destruction in the Qingdao offshore is generally overloaded, especially in Jiaozhou Bay. The reduction of land-based pollutants and watershed restoration projects, such as the removal of artificial dikes and the rehabilitation of its natural shoreline, are thus needed to resolve this problem in Jiaozhou Bay. Meanwhile, only differential reduction approaches on land-based pollutants are needed for other coastal waters in Qingdao, such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing investments in sewage treatment facilities.
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| [48] |
Dynamic successive assessment method of water environment carrying capacity and its application [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.12.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an important foundation of sustainable socioeconomic development and may be affected by many factors such as water resources, water quality, economy, population and environmental protection. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WECC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. First, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system representing the three aspects of water environment pressure carrying capacity (WEPCC), water environment state carrying capacity (WESCC) and water environment response carrying capacity (WERCC). The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WEPCC, WESCC and WERCC, and after that the weighting method is used to calculate WECC. Furthermore, WECC is divided into 27 classes on the basis of WEPCC, WESCC and WERCC contributions. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WECCs in China, including inter-province comparisons. The results show that the dynamic successive WECC assessment method is reasonable, and it can be used not only to accurately understand the changes of WECC through time but also to distinguish qualitative differences masked by similar WECC values.
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| [49] |
An evaluation model for urban carrying capacity: A case study of China's mega-cities [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.10.025 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61This paper develops an integrated urban carrying capacity (UCC) evolution model.61The paper summarizes limitations of existing studies on the topic of UCC.61The article systematically compares the pros and cons of related evaluation methods for traditional index evaluation systems.61The article evaluated the UCC conditions of 30 provincial capital cities and municipalities in China.61This paper reveals several important patterns of UCC in China's mega-cities.
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| [50] |
Assessing the carrying capacity of tilapia in an intertidal mangrove-based polyculture system of Pearl River Delta, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.014 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [51] |
Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.031 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In this study, system dynamics (SD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were combined to establish an evaluation index system and a system dynamics simulation model for the regional water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). Six proposed planning schemes were used to address the existing water ecological environment problems in the Siping area of Jilin Province, China. The development trends in the WECC during the years 2008–2020 were simulated and evaluated under different planning schemes. The results showed that the water ecological environment in the Siping area would develop into a “poor carrying” state in 2020 with a WECC index of 0.1819 if current social development modes remain unchanged. However, a “good carrying” state with a corresponding WECC index of 0.6652 could be achieved in 2020 if the 5th scheme is applied, which is an integrated planning scheme that combines changes in water-saving, pollution control, water resource exploitation and economic development. The results of this study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of the social economy and the water eco-environment in the Siping area.
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| [52] |
Regional industrial production's spatial distribution and water pollution control: a plant-level aggregation method for the case of a small region in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.05.023 URL PMID: 19505711 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
With fast economic growth, industrial water pollution has been a serious problem ubiquitously in China. More threatening is that lots of economic developing regions still strategically depend on fast industrialization, neglecting the relationship between production's spatial distribution and regional water environmental carrying capacity. As a small region, Deyang City is the objective case. We propose a plant-level aggregation method to estimate the spatial distribution of industrial water pollution pressure in the future five years. Based on discrete event simulation, newly added industrial projects' sizes and location choices (refer to industrial location theory) are regionally aggregated. COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) emission into every river reach in the region is calculated respectively. In order to recover the water environmental function, the strategy aims at controlling emission within the carrying capacity of each river reach. And the strategy is assessed on its regional effects and spatial equity, from the perspective of government and industry. The results quantitatively show the diversified uncertain bounds of river reaches' COD adoptions which will aggravate the water pollution. And the pollution control strategy's effect indicates a large different level of spatial equity for industry and government respectively.
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| [53] |
Industrial structural upgrading and spatial optimization based on water environment carrying capacity [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.246 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract The industrial wastewater accompanying rapid industrialization has caused severe pollution problems, especially in China. Addressing industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization based on water environment carrying capacity has become an urgent issue. This paper establishes an analytical framework that uses a combination of economic and water environment information for industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization based on water environment carrying capacity. This framework promotes the practical application of water environment carrying capacity theory for socio-ecological sustainability. The input-output table, information entropy method and a simulation platform of water environment carrying capacity using a multi-agent system are integrated into the analytical framework. A spatial assessment of the water environment carrying capacity, industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization is performed for Changzhou, China. With the measures implementation of industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization, the economic scale of the electrical equipment and machinery industry, which is the most important industry in Changzhou City, would reach 126,814.68 billion yuan, nearly 7.3 times its current value. In addition, the total local industrial economy would reach 3,319.81 billion yuan, nearly 1.6 times its current scale. Due to the industrial concentration, the increased economic scale would create additional benefits, including the whole study region reaching the water quality goal and the water quality in urban areas significantly improving. The measures of industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization would help to achieve a mutually beneficial balance between environmental protection and economic development. The analytical framework establishes the internal link between industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization based on the water environment carrying capacity. The links from water quality to industrial structure upgrading and spatial optimization are also established. These connections could support the fine-scale management of water environments and could help local governments to plan sustainable socio-ecologic development.
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