尹莎
, 陈佳, 吴孔森, 杨新军
西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
YIN Sha, CHEN Jia, WU Kongsen, YANG Xinjun
通讯作者:
接受日期: 2016-01-27
网络出版日期: 2016-05-27
版权声明: 2016 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
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作者简介:
作者简介：尹莎(1992-),女,湖南衡阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为人地系统适应性和农村可持续发展,E-mail: jennifer_yinsha@126.com。
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摘要
适应能力及其评估框架为农户生计研究提供了一个新思路。本文在干旱环境背景下,借鉴农户可持续生计和适应能力相关理论,探讨民勤绿洲地区农户适应能力及适应行为。按照适应能力评估框架,构建农户适应能力评价指标体系,通过问卷和实地调查获取数据,在农户适应行为分类的基础上,测量不同适应类型农户的适应能力,分析影响农户适应类型的因素。结果表明：①从农户的适应行为来看,积极主动的适应行为选择较多,减少消费、参加社会保险等适应行为选择较少;农户适应类型中,综合适应型的比重最大,被动适应型最小。②农户的适应能力方面,各维度整体分布较为均衡,但自然能力和社会能力存在显著分异,而物质能力、金融能力、劳动能力和学习能力较均衡;不同农户适应类型中,综合适应型农户适应能力更稳定,务工主导型和被动适应型的稳定性较差。在适应能力六大维度中,物质能力在六大农户适应类型中所占比重最大,自然能力最小。③家庭物质资产、非农就业比重、社会网络、人均“退还关压”面积、受教育程度等适应能力指标对农户的适应行为选择具有显著影响。
关键词：
Abstract
Adaptive capacity and its evaluation framework provide a new direction for the study of livelihoods of farming households. Considering the arid environment and based on theories about sustainable livelihoods of farming households and adaptive capacity, this article explores adaptive capacity and adaptive actions of farmers in the Minqin Oasis area. An adaptive capacity assessment index system of farming households was constructed. The research data were collected through a questionnaire survey and field investigations. Based on the classification of adaptive actions of farmers, this research measured the adaptive capacity of different adaptive types of farming households and analyzed the influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive types. The results are as follows: (1) With regard to the adaptive actions of farmers, more people chose active adaptive actions, while those who opted for reducing consumption and participating in social insurance were fewer. With regard to the adaptive types of farmers, the proportion of farming households that adopted comprehensive adaptation was the largest, whereas passive adaptation was adopted by the smallest number of households. (2) In terms of the adaptive capacity of farmers, generally speaking in each of the six dimensions a relatively balanced distribution was observed across different types of farming households, but there were significant differences between farming households with regard to natural resource endowments and social resources. On the other hand, material possession, financial resources, labor resources, and education were more balanced. Among different adaptive types, the adaptive capacity of comprehensive adaptation type was more stable, but the stability of migrant worker-dominant adaptation and passive adaptation types was poor. In the six dimensions of adaptive capacity and six adaptive types of farming households, material possession accounted for the largest contribution to adaptive capacity, while natural resource endowments contributed the least. (3) Among the indicators of adaptive capacity, household physical assets, proportion of non-agricultural employment, social network, per capita area of “returning farmland to forest and cutting down wells and field”, level of education, and so on had significant influences on farmers’ choice of adaptive actions.
Keywords：
随着全球气候变暖,干旱频发已成为全球最严峻的环境问题之一,引起了国际社会的高度重视。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的第四次评估报告表明,未来30~50年,世界各地干旱化的趋势可能会持续。中国西北地区是全球生态环境脆弱区和气候变化敏感区,极端干旱事件发生的频率和强度均明显增加(张强等, 2015)。甘肃省民勤县地处西北典型干旱地区,生态环境问题突出。近年来,荒漠不断向绿洲逼近,人退沙进的趋势明显(唐嘉琪等, 2013)。水资源极度短缺引起超采地下水,导致地下水位下降,成为植被种群退化最直接的原因,同时造成水质恶化与土地沙漠化,水资源危机的加剧成为民勤县生态环境问题的根源(高志海等, 2006; 戴晟懋等, 2008; 张瑞君等, 2012)。目前,对民勤县的研究较多集中在自然、生态环境等领域。在如此恶劣的沙患和水荒环境下,对农户应对环境变化的适应能力和行为研究更具实际意义。
适应能力最初起源于自然科学中的进化生物学。人类社会的适应能力不仅是“生存并繁殖”,还包括社会经济活动,以及人类生活质量(崔胜辉等, 2011)。2001年,IPCC将适应能力定义为“系统调整自身以适应气候变化和极端事件和趋利避害的能力”(IPCC, 2001)。适应能力研究已经取得一定成果。Gallopín(2006)、Smit等(2006)、方一平等(2009)对适应能力的概念、特点、发展状况等进行详细的回顾和梳理。在理解适应能力的基础上,Brooks等(2005)、Hinkel(2011)探讨了适应能力的指标和影响因素,为评估分析适应能力提供参考。众多研究对衡量适应能力具体的方法、框架和模型进行了讨论(Alberini et al, 2006; Pahl-Wostl, 2009; Acosta et al, 2013),但目前仍缺乏统一、公认的适应能力研究方法与框架。在分析适应能力尺度重要性(Vincent, 2007)的基础上,Posey(2009)、Villagra等(2014)、Dutra等(2015)从国家、州、城市、社区等不同尺度探究了适应能力。除理论研究外,Panda等(2013)、喻忠磊等(2013)、Quiroga等(2015)选取了典型研究案例,从农户角度出发,分析讨论了农户适应性,丰富了适应能力的实例研究。此外,应对干旱的适应性研究涉及内容较广泛,Li等(2015)、Kumar等(2016)、Lei等(2016)从适应性策略视角研究了干旱环境下不同适应性措施,探讨了农村土地利用管理与干旱风险适应性的关系,以及未来可能的干旱情景下农作物的适应性。部分学者从微观视角研究种植者或农户应对干旱的适应性(Chen et al, 2014; Alam, 2015; Etemadi et al, 2016)。综合国内外研究成果可知,国外关于适应性概念、影响因素、理论方法以及适应能力具体案例、定性研究较多,但国内相关研究较少,更鲜见从农户微观尺度评价适应能力及适应行为的研究。
本文选取干旱环境胁迫的民勤绿洲地区为案例地,从农户微观视角出发,基于适应能力评估框架,构建了农户适应能力评价指标体系,在定量测度各维度适应能力指数基础上,评估不同适应类型农户的适应能力。同时,根据农户调查数据统计分析,总结农户适应行为,剖析影响农户适应类型的影响因素,不仅为民勤地区农户应对干旱环境与社会转型风险、提高农户适应能力,选择适宜的生计适应行为提供理论基础,也为微观尺度的适应性研究提供案例参考。
民勤县隶属甘肃省武威市,地处河西走廊东北部,南邻凉州区,西毗金昌,东北、西北面与内蒙古自治区接壤(图1),全县总面积1.6×104 km2,其中沙漠、戈壁、剥蚀山地和盐碱滩地面积占91%,绿洲面积仅占9%。民勤县三面环沙,东北被腾格里沙漠包围,西北有巴丹吉林沙漠环绕,中部由石羊河冲积成狭长而平坦的绿洲带,是典型的荒漠绿洲之一。民勤县属温带大陆性气候,夏季短暂而炎热、冬季漫长而寒冷,温差大、降水少、蒸发强烈。多年平均降水量为113.6 mm,年均蒸发量为降水量的24倍;全县人均水资源占有量仅为520 m3,为全国均值的1/5、全省的1/3;年平均气温8.2 ℃,平均无霜期162天。风大沙多、干旱缺水是其基本特点。
近年来,民勤县生态环境逐渐恶化。土地沙漠化、盐渍化进程加快,地下水位下降,矿化度上升。每年净超采地下水2.96×108 m3,导致地下水位以每年0.3~0.8 m的速度下降,境内地下水位最深已达40 m,较浅的地区也在15 m以下。大量超采地下水,地表水补给不足,导致地下水质急剧恶化。全县浅层水质矿化度每年升高0.2~0.35 g/L,深层水矿化度年均升高0.24 g/L,部分地区由于浅层水质恶化已不能用于灌溉。民勤绿洲外围亟待治理的流沙面积约6.67×108 m2,流沙以每年3~4 m的速度向绿洲逼近,严重地段前移速度高达每年8~10 m。目前,民勤县已经成为全国荒漠化最严重的地区之一。
数据来源以问卷调查和实地访谈为主。课题组于2015年4月在民勤县进行预调查。根据预调查情况,2015年8月在民勤核心灌区13个乡镇发放调查问卷,并对村长等关键人物进行了访谈,以获取所需的农户信息及数据。根据不同乡镇行政村密度,同时考虑各行政村人口数量比重及各村的自然特征,在13个乡镇按照系统抽样和分层抽样的方法,共选取35个行政村,基本涵盖全县不同的自然环境类型。在随机抽取受访农户的基础上,主要对中年户主进行问卷调查。共发放问卷370份,收回有效问卷362份,回收有效率为97.84%。其中,发放的调查问卷基于预调查、访谈基础设计,并在实验问卷发放中进行了修正,同时采取问答式填写问卷法,保证了问卷质量与回收率。问卷主要内容包括农户家庭基本情况、农户生计资本、农户适应行为3部分。
2.3.1 理论框架与指标构建
(1) 适应能力评估框架
适应性是生态系统或社会系统应对内、外部压力的响应,适应能力是衡量系统适应性的核心属性(Pahl-Wostl, 2009)。Engle(2011)结合脆弱性和恢复力框架,分析了适应能力特征,探讨适应能力评估方法。Pandey等(2011)提出了适应能力评估框架,即人文能力(HC)、金融能力(EC)、自然能力(NC)和物质能力(PC),该框架能代表可持续状态的三大支柱——社会、经济、环境,通过四大维度与各方面指标的联系,增加了适应能力评估框架的实用性。其评估框架所提出的适应能力指数反映适应能力的大小,适应能力维度反映系统受影响的领域。
(2) 指标体系构建
各领域和学科对适应能力定义存在差异,大多数研究源于对脆弱性和恢复力框架的理解(Engle, 2011)。本文基于Pandey等(2011)提出的适应能力评估框架,借鉴农户可持续生计框架(Thulstrup, 2015)和“敏感性—适应力”分析框架(陈佳等, 2015),总结影响农户系统适应能力的因素,根据调查和访谈的实际情况,同时考虑指标选取的代表性、合理性、科学性及可操作性原则,并在参考已有研究基础上(Below et al, 2012; Panda et al, 2013),构建干旱环境扰动下的农户适应能力评价指标体系(表1)。其中,将适应能力分解为自然能力、物质能力、金融能力、劳动能力、学习能力、社会能力6个维度。
表1 农户适应能力评价指标体系
Tab.1 Evaluation index system of farming households’ adaptive capacity
| 指数 | 维度 | 指标 | 指标描述与定义 | 均值 | 标准差 | 指标向性 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 适应 能力 指数 | 自然 能力 | 人均实际耕种面积 | 家庭实际耕种面积与总人数之比 | 3.77 | 6.86 | + |
| 人均“退还关压”面积 | 家庭退耕还林及关井压田面积与总人数之比 | 1.78 | 2.55 | - | ||
| 水资源情况 | 距离水源距离与实际有效灌溉度;有效灌溉度：0.25=一小部分,0.5=一半左右,0.75=绝大部分,1=全部 | 453.35 | 1890.85 | + | ||
| 物质 能力 | 人均大棚面积 | 家庭日光温室及暖棚面积与总人数之比 | 38.71 | 76.03 | + | |
| 住房情况 | 住房类型和人均住房面积;住房类型：0=草房,0.25=土木房,0.5=土砖房,0.75=砖瓦房,1=混凝土结构;人均住房面积：家庭住房总面积与总人数之比 | 89.35 | 52.09 | + | ||
| 家庭物质资产 | 家庭物质资产种类数 | 6.62 | 1.60 | + | ||
| 养殖及种植 | 牲畜数量及种植作物种类数;牲畜数量=牛×1+驴×0.8+羊×0.6+猪×0.4+鸡×0.2;种植作物种类数包括特色林果业与日光温室种植作物 | 17.93 | 53.52 | + | ||
| 金融 能力 | 人均收入 | 家庭现金总收入(包括政府补贴)与总人数之比 | 1.18 | 0.79 | + | |
| 人均水资源支出 | 家庭灌溉及生活用水总支出与总人数之比 | 782.61 | 722.23 | + | ||
| 家庭资助机会 | 信贷机会和可借款人数;信贷机会：0=没有,1=有 | 6.16 | 4.67 | + | ||
| 劳动 能力 | 非农就业比重 | 家庭非农就业人数占总人数比例 | 0.18 | 0.21 | + | |
| 弱势群体人口比重 | 家庭女性、大于65岁老人和小于5岁小孩人数占总人数比例 | 0.59 | 0.22 | - | ||
| 男性劳动人口比重 | 家庭男性劳动(16~65岁)人数占总人数比例 | 0.41 | 0.18 | + | ||
| 学习 能力 | 受教育程度 | 家庭男性劳动力受教育程度;受教育程度：0=文盲,0.25=小学,0.5=初中或中专,0.75=高中或大专,1=大学本科及以上 | 1.19 | 0.62 | + | |
| 政策知晓度 | 对退耕还林还草、日光温室、“三禁”、水资源、“关井压田”、压沙造林、生态移民等政策的了解程度：0=完全不了解,0.25=不太了解,0.5=一般,0.75=比较了解,1=非常了解 | 4.07 | 1.15 | + | ||
| 农业技术 | 农业科学技术培训机会和运用情况;培训机会：以培训次数表示;运用情况：0=未运用,1=运用 | 1.47 | 1.76 | + | ||
| 社会 能力 | 领导潜力 | 以家庭中村委成员数来表示 | 0.17 | 0.52 | + | |
| 社会网络 | 获得帮助的人数和关系网络支持度;关系网络支持度：以获得支持类型种数表示,0.25=1种,0.5=2种,0.75=3种,1=4种 | 0.74 | 0.12 | + | ||
| 对周围人的信任 | 0.25=几乎没有,0.5=一小部分,0.75=绝大部分,1=全部 | 11.98 | 11.17 | + |
自然能力体现农户对自然资源的依赖性,代表农户面对自然环境变化的适应,选取了反映研究区自然生境的因子,包括实际耕种面积、退耕还林及关井压田面积和水资源情况。物质能力体现农户选择适应措施的消费性或生产性设备状况,具体包括家庭物质资产、日光温室及暖棚面积、住房、种植及养殖情况等。金融能力反映农户为适应环境在生产和消费中的金钱积累和流动,包括家庭收入、水资源支出和借款贷款。劳动能力和学习能力体现农户自身的劳动力资源和学习机会,对农户适应环境,选择合理适应行为并提升适应性认知具有重要作用,包括非农就业、弱势群体、男性劳动力、受教育程度、政策知晓度及农业技术等因子。社会能力表示农户利用社会资源(关系)应对环境变化的能力,其作用是增强农户间相互信任与合作的能力,包括领导潜力、社会网络和对周围人的信任。
2.3.2 数据标准化
对原始数据采用极差标准化处理,以消除原始数据量纲的影响。考虑正向指标与负向指标对适应能力指标的影响不同,将指标值越大越利于适应能力指数的,采用正向指标处理;指标值越小越利于适应能力指数的,采用负向指标处理。计算公式如下：
正向指标：
负向指标：
式中：xij为i行j列的原始数据;λjmin为j列原始数值的最小值;λjmax为j列原始数值的最大值;X′ij为标准化后的i行j列的数据。
2.3.3 研究方法
主成分分析法用于多指标综合评价,有助于保证客观性(林海明等, 2013)。本文运用主成分分析法确定各个指标权重。
综合评价指数法利用数理统计方法量化适应能力指数,来表示适应能力的大小,易于理解、操作,是目前适应能力评估较为普遍的一种方法(Pandey et al, 2011; 周松秀等, 2015)。本文将主成分分析结果的方差贡献率作为权重,以9个主成分得分值为变量,计算农户适应能力指数,其计算公式为：
式中：ACI为农户适应能力指数;Yi为第i个主成分方差贡献率;Fi为第i个主成分得分值。Fi的计算公式如下：
式中：Fi为第i个主成分得分值;Wi为第i个主成分得分系数;Xi为第i个指标的标准化值。
多元logistic回归分析法,能确定变量Xn在预测分类因变量Y发生概率的作用和强度。以农户适应类型为因变量,运用多元logistic回归分析影响农户适应类型的重要因素(赵雪雁等, 2015)。将农户适应类型“单一农业转变型”、“农业主导型”、“工农复合型”、“务工主导型”、“被动适应型”、“综合适应型”作为因变量,并将因变量的取值限定在[0, 5],即把以上农户适应类型分别定义为多项无序性变量y=(y0, y1, y2, y3, y4, y5),k为[0, 5],并将y5作为模型的参照水平,自变量为x=(x1, x2, …, xp)。
y的条件概率为：
相应的logistic回归模型为：
式中：P为事件发生的概率;x1, x2, …, xp为自变量;参数β0k, β1k,…, βpk为回归待定系数。
通过调查问卷数据,对农户具体适应行为进行统计,如图2。选择最多的适应行为是采用节水技术减少用水。在民勤县干旱的环境下,水资源利用受到极大限制,农户在生产生活中不得不使用节水技术减少用水,降低农业生产用水成本。其次,改变作物种植类型和外出打工也是农户主导的生计适应行为,说明农业转型和改变传统生计方式成为农户适应环境变化的主要方式。此外,由于政府政策扶持,农户向银行贷款计划较多。调查数据显示,69.51%的农户可以从银行获得贷款。移民搬迁仅为2户,占0.55%。在调查中发现,虽然年轻人移民搬迁意愿较强,但绝大部分中老年人即便环境恶劣,其乡土情结也促使他们不愿搬迁。采取减少消费、参加社会保险和改变养殖品种的适应行为选择较少。可见,对未来的适应选择,农户的保障意识和采取的措施非常有限。
根据农户生计适应行为统计分析与总结可知,民勤县农户适应行为主要表现为主动适应和被动适应2个方面。首先,主动适应包括农业转变、社会援助和生计多样化3类,其中,农业转变包括使用节水技术减少农业用水,改变种植作物类型及改变养殖品种。社会援助包括向亲友寻求帮助,向银行借款,参加社会保险。生计多样化适应行为主要是外出打工,增加收入方式。其次,被动适应包括减少消费、移民搬迁(表2)。
表2 农户适应行为分类
Tab.2 Farming households’ adaptive action classification
| 种类 | 适应行为 |
|---|---|
| 农业转变 | 采用节水技术减少用水;改变种类作物类型;改变养殖品种 |
| 社会援助 | 向亲友寻求帮助;银行借贷;参加社会保险 |
| 生计多样化 | 增加收入方式;外出打工 |
| 被动选择 | 减少消费;移民搬迁 |
在农户适应行为种类概括的基础上,根据农户家庭生计选择在各适应行为中的组成,进一步界定农户适应类型,将其划分为“单一农业转变型”、“农业主导型”、“工农复合型”、“务工主导型”、“被动适应型”、“综合适应型”共6类(表3)。只选择农业转变的为“单一农业转变型”,占总样本的9.67%;选择以农业转变为主的“农业主导型”占比为11.05%;选择兼顾农业转变和外出打工的“工农复合型”占比为22.93%;选择以外出打工为主的“务工主导型”占比为3.87%;选择社会援助和被动选择,或两者中1种适应行为的“被动适应型”,仅占1.38%;选择3种适应行为及以上的“综合适应型”占比最大,为51.10%。
表3 农户适应类型
Tab.3 Adaptive types of farming households
| 类型 | 说明 | 农户数量 | 比例/% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 单一农业转变型 | 只选择农业转变 | 35 | 9.67 |
| 农业主导型 | 选择以农业转变为主 | 40 | 11.05 |
| 工农复合型 | 选择兼顾农业转变和外出打工 | 83 | 22.93 |
| 务工主导型 | 选择以打工为主 | 14 | 3.87 |
| 被动适应型 | 选择社会援助和被动选择,或两者中1种适应行为 | 5 | 1.38 |
| 综合适应型 | 选择3种适应行为及以上 | 185 | 51.10 |
在已构建指标的基础上,通过综合指数法计算农户六大维度适应能力指数,利用SPSS 17.0软件处理的箱线图分析农户六大维度适应能力指数差异(图3-4)。
自然能力和社会能力的中位数逼近下四分位,四分位距狭窄,且高离群值较多,呈显著的正偏态分布。由此说明,农户的自然能力和社会能力极不均衡,较高的自然、社会能力主要集中在少数农户;大部分农户自然和社会能力偏低,总体呈现出低位均衡化的态势。物质能力、金融能力、劳动能力和学习能力的中位数近似位于箱体中间,上下截断点距离上下四分位的距离相近,数据具有较强的对称性,呈标准正态分布。表明农户的物质能力、金融能力、劳动能力和学习能力较均衡。从整体来看,物质能力最高,自然能力最低,说明农户人均拥有的日光温室、暖棚和住房的面积较大,家庭物质资产种类丰富,养殖、种植等农业发展转型较好,而实际耕种面积有限,退耕还林、关井压田和水资源情况不容乐观。由于民勤干旱的自然特征,耕地和水资源都受到极大影响,其自然能力较弱,而政府大力推广日光温室、暖棚、特色林果业等,并给予补贴(如政府出台日光温室等建设扶持政策),使其物质能力相对较强(图3)。适应能力指数的中位数近似位于箱体中间,且上下截断点距离上下四分位的距离相近,数据具有较强的对称性,呈标准正态分布,农户之间的适应能力较为均衡(图4)。
图5 不同农户适应类型适应能力指数散点图
Fig.5 Scatter diagram of adaptive capacity index of different types of farming households
根据适应能力指数计算结果可知(图5),不同适应类型农户适应能力指数存在一定差异。单一农业转变型和农业主导型的适应能力指数分布不均,内部分化明显,且单一农业转变型比农业主导型的内部分化大,说明农业主导型农户适应能力的稳定性高于单一农业转变型。单一农业转变型的适应能力指数集中于0.075~0.150之间,农业主导型集中于0.100~0.175。整体上单一农业转变型的适应能力优于农业主导型。工农复合型和综合适应型的适应能力指数集中于0.100~0.175之间,其中综合适应型的分布更集中,说明该类农户适应能力更趋于稳定。务工主导型和被动适应型的适应能力指数集中于0.075~0.150之间,分布极不均衡,两种类型的适应能力稳定性差。从6类农户适应类型来看,综合适应型农户的适应能力最优,务工主导型和被动适应型较差,表明选择积极主动且多样化适应行为的农户,其适应能力相对较高。
图6 不同农户适应类型的六大维度差异
Fig.6 Differences in the six dimensions of various adaptive types of farming households
不同农户适应类型的六大维度能力也存在差异(图6)。农户物质能力在六大维度中所占比重最大,自然能力最小。为弥补自然条件的不足,在政府各种补贴扶持政策下,农户积极改善物质条件,因此,物质能力相对较强。其次,学习能力在六大维度中占的比重也相对较大。根据调查数据统计发现,民勤县农村家庭普遍重视教育,农户的文化程度相对较高,64.21%农户家庭具有初中及以上学历,高中或大专及以上学历占33.02%,大学本科及以上学历占13.27%,其中,大学本科学历以30岁以下的年轻人为主,调查访谈中农户表达子女通过升学离开民勤的意愿非常强烈。此外,政府定期组织农业技术培训和学习相关政策,邀请相关专家进行现场培训,有利于农户学习能力的提升。因此,综合适应型和农业主导型农户社会能力比重较大,该类农户选择多样化的适应行为,正是得益于政府援助和社会网络的支持。
通过多元logistic回归分析探究具体适应能力指标对农户适应类型的内在影响作用。将适应能力指标作为自变量引入多元logistic回归模型,以“综合适应型”为模型的参照水平。模型的对数似然值为793.989,卡方检验值为172.529,显著性水平(Sig.)为0.000,模型具有显著性意义。该模型的拟合优度较好（P=0.997>0.05）,具体分析结果如表4。
表4 农户适应类型影响指标logistic分析结果
Tab.4 Logistic analysis results of influencing factors of adaptive types of farming households
| 变量 | 单一农业转变型 | 农业主导型 | 工农复合型 | 务工主导型 | 被动适应型 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Exp(B) | B | Exp(B) | B | Exp(B) | B | Exp(B) | B | Exp(B) | |||||
| 人均“退还关压”面积 | -2.163 | 0.115 | -1.797 | 0.166 | -2.721* | 0.066 | -1.288 | 0.276 | -4.375 | 0.013 | ||||
| 家庭物质资产 | -3.042** | 0.048 | -0.752 | 0.472 | -1.933** | 0.145 | 1.436 | 4.206 | -5.544* | 0.004 | ||||
| 对周围人的信任 | -1.456* | 0.233 | -0.800 | 0.449 | -1.710*** | 0.181 | -0.732 | 0.481 | -0.577 | 0.562 | ||||
| 非农就业比重 | -1.823* | 0.162 | -2.950*** | 0.052 | 1.367* | 3.924 | -1.277 | 0.279 | -1.415 | 0.243 | ||||
| 社会网络 | -3.691** | 0.025 | -1.288 | 0.276 | -1.390 | 0.249 | -8.943* | 0.000 | 1.214 | 3.366 | ||||
| 受教育程度 | -0.201 | 0.818 | -0.508 | 0.602 | -1.815** | 0.163 | -2.464 | 0.085 | -0.539 | 0.583 | ||||
| 政策知晓度 | 0.321 | 1.378 | 0.567 | 1.764 | -0.519 | 0.595 | -3.294* | 0.037 | -2.317 | 0.099 | ||||
(1) 物质能力。物质能力中的家庭物质资产越丰富,农户选择单一的农业或务农务工两方面适应行为的可能性越小,选择多方面综合的适应行为可能性越大。家庭物质资产对单一农业转变型和工农复合型具有显著负向影响,系数分别为-3.042、-1.933。相对于综合适应类型,家庭物质资产增加一个单位,农户为单一农业转变型的机率下降95.2%,为工农复合型的机率下降85.5%。家庭物质资产与选择多样化的适应行为相互影响。适应行为选择的多元化促进了收入来源的多样化,在一定程度上降低了收入来源的风险,有利于增加家庭物质资产。而对物质生活追求的提升会促使家庭物质资产较丰富的农户,进一步增加家庭收入,选择多样化的生计适应行为,促使收入来源多元化。
(2) 劳动能力。劳动能力中的非农就业比重越大,农户越可能缩减农业增加务工方面的适应行为。非农就业比重对单一农业转变型和农业主导型有显著负向影响,对工农复合型有显著正向影响,系数分别为-1.823、-2.950、1.367,相对于综合适应类型,非农就业比重增加一个单位,农户为单一农业转变型的机率下降83.8%,为农业主导型的机率下降94.8%,为工农复合型的机率上升292.4%。调查发现,非农就业比重越大的农户,选择以农业为主导的生计方式可能性越小,兼顾种地和外出打工的可能性越大。随着耕种的成本越来越高,尤其是农作物灌溉的水费越来越高,而农产品售价低,农业收入占家庭总收入的比重大幅降低,加上生活成本高,只依靠种地难以维持家庭基本开支,大部分农户选择降低种植规模,并在农闲时外出打工补贴家用。
(3) 社会能力。社会能力中的社会网络越丰富,对周围人越信任,选择单一的农业转变或工农两方面适应行为的可能性越小。社会网络、对周围人的信任分别对单一农业转变型和工农复合型均有显著负向影响,系数分别为-3.691、-1.710。相对于综合适应型,其社会网络增加一个单位,农户为单一农业转变型的机率下降97.5%;对周围人的信任增加一个单位,为工农复合型的机率下降81.9%。通过问卷和访谈发现,农户的社会网络越丰富,获得的信息资源越多,通过利用信息资源谋求生计多元化,不再选择单一务农或务工生计,更倾向选择综合多样化的适应行为。尤其对周围人越信任,越有可能利用周围人提供的信息,选择包括外出务工、向银行借贷等综合性的适应行为。
(4) 自然能力。自然能力中的人均“退还关压”面积越大,农户减少农业活动的机率越大,选择综合多样的适应方式的可能性越大。人均“退还关压”面积对工农复合型有显著负向影响,系数为-2.721。相对于综合适应型农户,人均“退还关压”面积增加一个单位,农户为工农复合型的机率下降93.4%。在实际调研中,笔者发现,退耕还林和关井压田面积越大的农户,原有耕地面积随之减少,同时种植作物的类型和数量均减少,导致农业方面的收入降低。为了增加家庭收入,外出务工是解决生计的一个途径,但农户不会放弃常年耕种的土地外出打工,而会选择农闲时在家附近打零工,同时向亲戚朋友寻求帮助、减少消费等综合多样的适应方式。
(5) 学习能力。学习能力中的受教育程度越高,选择务工、务农方面的可能性越小,选择多样化综合适应行为的可能性越大。学习能力中的受教育程度对工农复合型有显著负向影响,系数为-1.815。相对于综合适应型农户,受教育程度增加一个单位,农户为工农复合型的机率下降83.7%。通过调查发现,农户受教育程度越高,用于生存的技能越多,对相关政策的认知程度越高,生计选择也更多元化。农户不再只依靠务农或外出打工维持生计,而根据自身条件考虑除务农务工之外的生计方式,甚至根据对已有政策的认知进行移民搬迁及向银行贷款等,选择多样化的综合适应行为。
综上所述,农户适应能力分化导致农户适应行为差异,影响民勤地区农户适应性生计的选择。非农就业比重越高的农户,倾向于选择工农复合的适应生计,而不是务工或是综合适应行为。农户物质能力越强、社会网络越丰富,更愿意选择综合生计的适应行为,其放弃传统单一的务农、务工或是工农复合适应行为的机率越大。自然能力降低、学习能力增强会提高农户风险认知,进一步促进农户选择综合型的生计适应行为。
本文运用问卷调查数据,分析民勤绿洲地区农户的适应能力及适应行为。在建立农户适应能力评估指标的基础上,利用适应能力指数衡量农户适应能力。基于农户适应行为划分农户适应类型,分析了不同类型农户的适应能力。同时运用多元logistic回归模型探究农户适应类型的影响因素。具体结论如下：
(1) 从农户适应行为方面,选择较多的为积极主动的适应行为,如采用节水技术减少用水、改变种植作物类型和外出打工。其中,综合适应型的比重最大,以减少消费、参加社会保险等被动适应类型比重最少。此外,民勤地区农户对未来的保障意识和采取的措施非常有限,面对环境变化风险增加,其农户生计可持续性会进一步受到冲击。因此,政府应积极引导农户采取有效措施应对干旱风险,提高农户的生计保障意识,有利于增强农户适应干旱环境的能力。
(2) 从农户适应能力来看,整体分布较为均衡,但自然能力和社会能力分化明显,呈现出低位均衡化态势;而物质能力、金融能力、劳动能力和学习能力差异较小。在不同农户适应类型中,综合适应型农户的适应能力更稳定,务工主导型和被动适应型农户的适应能力指数分布极不均衡,稳定性相对较差。转变生计方式减少对自然环境的依赖,有利于降低环境变化风险干扰程度。为此,农户应充分利用社会资源(关系),提高自身劳动技能和学习能力,选择综合多样的生计方式以减少干旱风险冲击。
(3) 物质能力、劳动能力、社会能力、自然能力和学习能力对农户适应性选择影响差异明显。其中,家庭物质资产、非农就业比重、社会网络、人均“退还关压”面积、受教育程度等适应能力指标对农户的适应行为选择具有显著影响。农户生计资本分化导致六大维度适应能力的差异,影响了农户适应行为的选择,从而形成不同的适应类型。而丰富农户社会网络、增加家庭物质补偿、提高自身学习认知等适应能力,有利于其降低生计风险,提升生计可持续性水平。
本文将农户可持续生计与适应能力理论结合,是对农户微观尺度适应性研究的一次尝试。运用的适应能力评估框架,借鉴国内外已有的社会—生态系统相关研究,同时根据研究区实际情况选取了具有代表性的评价指标,体现了受干旱胁迫的民勤地区农户对环境的响应,可供相关适应性研究参考。从微观农户尺度探讨人地关系,分析了干旱环境背景下农户生计适应行为及其适应能力,不仅丰富了适应性的微观研究,也为农户生计研究提供了新的途径。
由于目前缺乏统一的适应能力评估方法、框架和模型,本文构建的适应能力指标体系在量化农户适应能力方面可能存在一定的局限性。由于适应能力指标体系是建立在农户生计资本的基础上,未考虑农户生计资本之外其他因素对农户适应能力的影响,今后有待进一步完善。鉴于调查数据限制,本文主要是对农户现阶段适应能力及适应行为进行分析,未探讨适应能力及行为选择的演化规律。同时,关注民勤县不同地区的农户适应性,从微观研究尺度扩展到典型社区案例分析的跨尺度适应性研究,以及社区适应性对社区恢复力的影响,将在后续研究中深入探讨。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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乡村旅游社会—生态系统脆弱性及影响机理: 基于秦岭景区农户调查数据的分析 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2015.03.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
脆弱性及其评估框架为旅游地社会-生态系统研究提供了一个新的视角。文章借鉴社会-生态系统及其脆弱性相关理论，探索在旅游发展背景下秦岭山区乡村人地关系的测度与解释。从敏感性和适应能力结合的角度出发，构建评价指标体系，通过农户参与式问卷调查与实地调研，在农户生计分类的基础上，测度以农户为基础的局地社会生态系统脆弱度，厘清不同类型农户和景区脆弱性的影响机理。以农户适应性为切入点，提出实践对策与建议，为相关部门决策提供依据。研究表明：（1）以旅游生计和综合生计型为主的农户较传统生计型（务工／农）农户脆弱性降低。局域脆弱性空间差异不大，但结构性差异显著，其中，社区共管类景区脆弱性明显较其他景区低。（2）人均拥有耕地面积、家庭物质资产种类、旅游收入、贷款资助机会、区域优势度、技能培训等成为影响农户脆弱性的关键因素。（3）自然资本缺失、适应力资本分异、企业经济理性主导的旅游开发模式进一步增加了人地系统脆弱性，而农户认知、社会资本建设以及社区共管模式有利于提升系统应对风险能力，减缓或降低系统脆弱性。
Vulnerability and influence mechanisms of rural tourism socio-ecological systems: A household survey in China’s Qinling Mountain area [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2015.03.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
脆弱性及其评估框架为旅游地社会-生态系统研究提供了一个新的视角。文章借鉴社会-生态系统及其脆弱性相关理论，探索在旅游发展背景下秦岭山区乡村人地关系的测度与解释。从敏感性和适应能力结合的角度出发，构建评价指标体系，通过农户参与式问卷调查与实地调研，在农户生计分类的基础上，测度以农户为基础的局地社会生态系统脆弱度，厘清不同类型农户和景区脆弱性的影响机理。以农户适应性为切入点，提出实践对策与建议，为相关部门决策提供依据。研究表明：（1）以旅游生计和综合生计型为主的农户较传统生计型（务工／农）农户脆弱性降低。局域脆弱性空间差异不大，但结构性差异显著，其中，社区共管类景区脆弱性明显较其他景区低。（2）人均拥有耕地面积、家庭物质资产种类、旅游收入、贷款资助机会、区域优势度、技能培训等成为影响农户脆弱性的关键因素。（3）自然资本缺失、适应力资本分异、企业经济理性主导的旅游开发模式进一步增加了人地系统脆弱性，而农户认知、社会资本建设以及社区共管模式有利于提升系统应对风险能力，减缓或降低系统脆弱性。
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全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述 [J].
适应性研究是全球变化科学研究的重点领域。本文基于对适应性概念的辨析,探讨了全球变化背景下适应性的科学内涵,总结了适应性研究的途径。通过文献分析与归纳,将适应性研究途径分为敏感性-脆弱性-适应性框架、暴露-适应能力-脆弱性框架与弹性-脆弱性-适应性框架。从“适应对象”、“适应者”以及“如何适应”的角度概述了适应性研究的实践与应用,最后指出了未来的研究重点和发展方向。
Review on adaptation in the perspective of global change [J].
适应性研究是全球变化科学研究的重点领域。本文基于对适应性概念的辨析,探讨了全球变化背景下适应性的科学内涵,总结了适应性研究的途径。通过文献分析与归纳,将适应性研究途径分为敏感性-脆弱性-适应性框架、暴露-适应能力-脆弱性框架与弹性-脆弱性-适应性框架。从“适应对象”、“适应者”以及“如何适应”的角度概述了适应性研究的实践与应用,最后指出了未来的研究重点和发展方向。
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甘肃民勤绿洲荒漠化防治研究 [J].
民勤是河西走廊东段石羊河流域的尾闾绿洲区,它位于腾格里和巴丹吉林沙漠中间,不仅是阻挡两大沙漠合并的重要廊道,而且是我国东部地区重要的生态屏障.它阻挡着西来的沙尘暴对东部地区,尤其是华北的入侵,护卫着北京的生态安全,具有重要的生态战略地位.民勤绿洲区属温带干旱气候,降水稀少,本地无地表径流产生,生产、生活用水完全依赖于石羊河流域的地表水资源.受气候变化和人类活动双重因素的综合作用,特别是人类活动的影响,导致民勤绿洲生态与环境危机,引起国家和广大学者的关注,并从不同角度提出了许多对策.民勤生态与环境问题的根源在于水资源危机的加剧.通过对民勤50多年发展的综合分析和评价,建议尽快实施"民勤绿洲荒漠化综合治理生态工程".恢复民勤的生态系统--绿洲荒漠生态系统,是一个复杂的工程体系,需要全社会协同合作.
Study on land desertification and its prevention and control measures in the Minqin Oasis in Gansu Province [J].
民勤是河西走廊东段石羊河流域的尾闾绿洲区,它位于腾格里和巴丹吉林沙漠中间,不仅是阻挡两大沙漠合并的重要廊道,而且是我国东部地区重要的生态屏障.它阻挡着西来的沙尘暴对东部地区,尤其是华北的入侵,护卫着北京的生态安全,具有重要的生态战略地位.民勤绿洲区属温带干旱气候,降水稀少,本地无地表径流产生,生产、生活用水完全依赖于石羊河流域的地表水资源.受气候变化和人类活动双重因素的综合作用,特别是人类活动的影响,导致民勤绿洲生态与环境危机,引起国家和广大学者的关注,并从不同角度提出了许多对策.民勤生态与环境问题的根源在于水资源危机的加剧.通过对民勤50多年发展的综合分析和评价,建议尽快实施"民勤绿洲荒漠化综合治理生态工程".恢复民勤的生态系统--绿洲荒漠生态系统,是一个复杂的工程体系,需要全社会协同合作.
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气候变化适应性研究综述: 现状与趋向 [J].Magsci 摘要
在气候变化领域,随着对气候变化本身不断的关注,适应性研究不断涌现.因此,理清气候变化适应性研究的脉络、把握国际适应性研究的发展趋势和动向,对未来气候变化脆弱性的削减、针对性地提高人类适应和应对能力具有重要的意义.依据国际气候变化适应性研究的主要文献,分析了气候变化适应性的概念及其应用,适应性与适应能力、响应能力和恢复力之间的相互关系;综述了气候变化适应性的情景模型测算、适应性选择、不同尺度适应能力、主动适应策略研究的4个集中领域;总结了气候变化适应性社区尺度、自下而上手段、适应性过程研究的趋势.
A review about the research on adaptability in climate change: Present situation and tendency [J].Magsci 摘要
在气候变化领域,随着对气候变化本身不断的关注,适应性研究不断涌现.因此,理清气候变化适应性研究的脉络、把握国际适应性研究的发展趋势和动向,对未来气候变化脆弱性的削减、针对性地提高人类适应和应对能力具有重要的意义.依据国际气候变化适应性研究的主要文献,分析了气候变化适应性的概念及其应用,适应性与适应能力、响应能力和恢复力之间的相互关系;综述了气候变化适应性的情景模型测算、适应性选择、不同尺度适应能力、主动适应策略研究的4个集中领域;总结了气候变化适应性社区尺度、自下而上手段、适应性过程研究的趋势.
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基于遥感的民勤绿洲植被覆盖变化定量监测 [J].
<p>基于混合像元条件下的TM影像植被覆盖度遥感反演,定量研究了甘肃省民勤绿洲1987年至2001年植被覆盖时空变化的规律与特点。结果表明,15年中,民勤绿洲的植被覆盖发生了很大的变化,农田植被(耕地)面积增加了53.11%,而中、高盖度植被的面积却减少了25.21%,这对民勤绿洲的长久生态安全构成了严重的威胁。民勤绿洲植被覆盖变化的空间转化过程复杂,但总体属于开垦—植被退化型。15年中因开垦和植被退化而损失的中、高盖度植被达42204.81hm2,占原面积的81.73%,而且损失的主要是绿洲边缘的防风固沙植被,其中因开垦损失的面积为18776.08hm2,占损失面积的44.5%。超采地下水引起的地下水位快速下降是导致绿洲边缘天然和人工灌丛植被退化的主要原因。控制开垦并培育相对稳定的灌丛型植被,应该是研究区生态环境建设的重点。</p>
Quantitative monitoring of vegetation cover change by using remotely sensed data over Minqin Oasis, Gansu [J].
<p>基于混合像元条件下的TM影像植被覆盖度遥感反演,定量研究了甘肃省民勤绿洲1987年至2001年植被覆盖时空变化的规律与特点。结果表明,15年中,民勤绿洲的植被覆盖发生了很大的变化,农田植被(耕地)面积增加了53.11%,而中、高盖度植被的面积却减少了25.21%,这对民勤绿洲的长久生态安全构成了严重的威胁。民勤绿洲植被覆盖变化的空间转化过程复杂,但总体属于开垦—植被退化型。15年中因开垦和植被退化而损失的中、高盖度植被达42204.81hm2,占原面积的81.73%,而且损失的主要是绿洲边缘的防风固沙植被,其中因开垦损失的面积为18776.08hm2,占损失面积的44.5%。超采地下水引起的地下水位快速下降是导致绿洲边缘天然和人工灌丛植被退化的主要原因。控制开垦并培育相对稳定的灌丛型植被,应该是研究区生态环境建设的重点。</p>
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主成分分析综合评价应该注意的问题 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-4565.2013.08.004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
将主成分分析用于多指标的综合 评价较普遍,但因缺乏应用条件的考虑而导致评价结果不具合理性甚至错误,故应深入研究其应用条件。本文应用因子分析法因子载荷阵的简单结构、加权算术平均 数的合理性,得出主成分分析综合评价的应用条件是:指标是正向、标准化的,主成分载荷阵达到更好的简单结构,主成分正向,主成分与变量显著相关;并结合 2010年广东省各市对外贸易国际竞争力的评价实例提出了一些建议。
Some problems in comprehensive evaluation in the principal component analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-4565.2013.08.004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
将主成分分析用于多指标的综合 评价较普遍,但因缺乏应用条件的考虑而导致评价结果不具合理性甚至错误,故应深入研究其应用条件。本文应用因子分析法因子载荷阵的简单结构、加权算术平均 数的合理性,得出主成分分析综合评价的应用条件是:指标是正向、标准化的,主成分载荷阵达到更好的简单结构,主成分正向,主成分与变量显著相关;并结合 2010年广东省各市对外贸易国际竞争力的评价实例提出了一些建议。
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民勤土地利用格局时空变化研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00130 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>应用1987年和2010年两期TM遥感数据,在GIS技术的支撑下,解译提取民勤县土地利用类型空间分布信息,用FRAGSTATS3.3软件计算斑块类型和景观两个层次的7个景观格局指数,分析民勤县土地利用类型空间转化特点和质心转移趋势。结果表明：（1）23年间,民勤县土地利用类型转换明显,戈壁、耕地面积增加,草地面积减少,林地部分退化。（2）土地类型多样性和均匀度减小、聚集度增加,表明人类活动对民勤县土地利用影响大,土地利用结构受个别土地类型影响程度加深、稳定性下降。（3）民勤县土地利用质心整体向西南方向偏移,沙漠、耕地质心向西南方向偏移明显,沙进人退的趋势显著。</p>
The change of land-use pattern during 1987-2010 in Minqin, Gansu, China [J].https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00130 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>应用1987年和2010年两期TM遥感数据,在GIS技术的支撑下,解译提取民勤县土地利用类型空间分布信息,用FRAGSTATS3.3软件计算斑块类型和景观两个层次的7个景观格局指数,分析民勤县土地利用类型空间转化特点和质心转移趋势。结果表明：（1）23年间,民勤县土地利用类型转换明显,戈壁、耕地面积增加,草地面积减少,林地部分退化。（2）土地类型多样性和均匀度减小、聚集度增加,表明人类活动对民勤县土地利用影响大,土地利用结构受个别土地类型影响程度加深、稳定性下降。（3）民勤县土地利用质心整体向西南方向偏移,沙漠、耕地质心向西南方向偏移明显,沙进人退的趋势显著。</p>
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乡村农户适应旅游发展的模式及影响机制: 以秦岭金丝峡景区为例 [J].Magsci 摘要
社会—生态系统理论为旅游影响与旅游可持续发展研究提供了新的分析思路,已成为国际上旅游研究的重要理论工具。从社会—生态系统适应性出发,借鉴脆弱性研究中的适应性理论,构建农户旅游发展适应性分析框架,以陕西秦岭金丝峡景区为案例,通过实地调查和访谈获取数据,较系统地研究了农户适应旅游发展的行为模式、影响因素及机制。主要结论包括：① 旅游业推动小河流域农业商品化,但并未促进农业增长,相反农业生产功能大幅衰退;农户以旅游经营和常年务工作为主要对策,形成了旅游专营型、主导型、均衡兼营型及务工主导型四种适应效果差异显著的适应模式。② 农户适应旅游发展的影响因素包括认知因素(机会和政策认知)、劳动力(劳动力总量、聘用人数)、地理区位(可达性与区位优势度)、自然资本(耕地面积)、物质资产(房屋类型) 和社会资本(邻里关系) 。③ 旅游开发导致的自然生计资源缺失与农户生存理性之间的矛盾是适应发生的根源,社区补偿制度是重要推动力量;农户社会理性与经济理性偏好决定着其适应模式选择;适应效果受适应力驱动因素影响。最后对旅游影响的社会—生态整合研究有效性进行讨论,并提出后续深化研究的方向和本研究的实践启示。
Exploring conditions, determinants and mechanisms of rural households’ adaptability to tourism development: A case study of Jinsixia in Qinling Mountains [J].Magsci 摘要
社会—生态系统理论为旅游影响与旅游可持续发展研究提供了新的分析思路,已成为国际上旅游研究的重要理论工具。从社会—生态系统适应性出发,借鉴脆弱性研究中的适应性理论,构建农户旅游发展适应性分析框架,以陕西秦岭金丝峡景区为案例,通过实地调查和访谈获取数据,较系统地研究了农户适应旅游发展的行为模式、影响因素及机制。主要结论包括：① 旅游业推动小河流域农业商品化,但并未促进农业增长,相反农业生产功能大幅衰退;农户以旅游经营和常年务工作为主要对策,形成了旅游专营型、主导型、均衡兼营型及务工主导型四种适应效果差异显著的适应模式。② 农户适应旅游发展的影响因素包括认知因素(机会和政策认知)、劳动力(劳动力总量、聘用人数)、地理区位(可达性与区位优势度)、自然资本(耕地面积)、物质资产(房屋类型) 和社会资本(邻里关系) 。③ 旅游开发导致的自然生计资源缺失与农户生存理性之间的矛盾是适应发生的根源,社区补偿制度是重要推动力量;农户社会理性与经济理性偏好决定着其适应模式选择;适应效果受适应力驱动因素影响。最后对旅游影响的社会—生态整合研究有效性进行讨论,并提出后续深化研究的方向和本研究的实践启示。
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中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望 [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.02.0196 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>干旱灾害是制约中国西北地区社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然灾害,而且随着气候变暖西北地区极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。 “中国西北干旱气象灾害监测预警及减灾技术研究”成果是在数十个国家级科研项目的支持下,经过过去20年的理论研究和应用技术开发所取得的一系列创新性成果。该成果对西北干旱形成机理及重大干旱事件发生、发展的规律取得了新认识,尤其是发现了形成西北干旱环流模态的4种主要物理途径;研制了西北干旱预测的新指标、干旱监测的新指数及监测农田蒸散的新设备,明显提高了干旱监测准确性和针对性;提出了山地云物理气象学新理论,研发了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区——祁连山空中云水资源开发利用技术;发现了干旱半干旱区陆面水分输送和循环的新规律,揭示了绿洲自我维持的物理机制;认识了干旱气候变化对农业生态系统影响的新特征,建立了旱作农业对干旱灾害的响应关系;开发了旱区覆膜保墒、集雨补灌、垄沟栽培、适[JP2]宜播期等应对气候变化的减灾技术,为西北实施种植制度、农业布局及结构调整和农业气候资源高效利用提供了科学方案。该成果的完成提升了中国干旱防灾减灾技术水平,培养了中国干旱气象科技队伍,推进了西北地区干旱气象业务服务能力,对西北地区社会经济发展、农业现代化和生态文明建设等方面起到了重要的促进作用。在此基础上,展望了西北地区干旱气象科学研究中迫切需要、有可能突破的主要领域。</p>
Research progress and prospect on the monitoring and early warning and mitigation technology of meteorological drought disaster in Northwest China [J].https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.02.0196 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>干旱灾害是制约中国西北地区社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然灾害,而且随着气候变暖西北地区极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。 “中国西北干旱气象灾害监测预警及减灾技术研究”成果是在数十个国家级科研项目的支持下,经过过去20年的理论研究和应用技术开发所取得的一系列创新性成果。该成果对西北干旱形成机理及重大干旱事件发生、发展的规律取得了新认识,尤其是发现了形成西北干旱环流模态的4种主要物理途径;研制了西北干旱预测的新指标、干旱监测的新指数及监测农田蒸散的新设备,明显提高了干旱监测准确性和针对性;提出了山地云物理气象学新理论,研发了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区——祁连山空中云水资源开发利用技术;发现了干旱半干旱区陆面水分输送和循环的新规律,揭示了绿洲自我维持的物理机制;认识了干旱气候变化对农业生态系统影响的新特征,建立了旱作农业对干旱灾害的响应关系;开发了旱区覆膜保墒、集雨补灌、垄沟栽培、适[JP2]宜播期等应对气候变化的减灾技术,为西北实施种植制度、农业布局及结构调整和农业气候资源高效利用提供了科学方案。该成果的完成提升了中国干旱防灾减灾技术水平,培养了中国干旱气象科技队伍,推进了西北地区干旱气象业务服务能力,对西北地区社会经济发展、农业现代化和生态文明建设等方面起到了重要的促进作用。在此基础上,展望了西北地区干旱气象科学研究中迫切需要、有可能突破的主要领域。</p>
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民勤县2000-2009年来水资源生态环境压力分析 [J].
民勤县面临的水资源危机已经受到人们的普遍关注。水资源生态环境压力是指为了保护人类生存发展的生态环境、以维持整个社会经济活动的正常运行,而对水资源造成的数量和质量上的压力,简称水资源压力。通过从人口、经济和生态3个方面选取多个指标建立水资源压力指数,对民勤近10 a来水资源压力问题进行分析。结果表明,民勤水资源压力较高,属于重度缺水,人口和经济发展挤占生态需水,引起生态环境恶化。多年来通过采取节水、调水、分水等措施,水资源压力指数由2000年的0.627降到2009年0.329,虽然水资源压力有所减缓,但地下水超采和生态环境缺水严重、水资源短缺问题仍未缓解。
Analysis of water resource ecological environment stress during 2000-2009 in Minqin County, Gansu Province, China [J].
民勤县面临的水资源危机已经受到人们的普遍关注。水资源生态环境压力是指为了保护人类生存发展的生态环境、以维持整个社会经济活动的正常运行,而对水资源造成的数量和质量上的压力,简称水资源压力。通过从人口、经济和生态3个方面选取多个指标建立水资源压力指数,对民勤近10 a来水资源压力问题进行分析。结果表明,民勤水资源压力较高,属于重度缺水,人口和经济发展挤占生态需水,引起生态环境恶化。多年来通过采取节水、调水、分水等措施,水资源压力指数由2000年的0.627降到2009年0.329,虽然水资源压力有所减缓,但地下水超采和生态环境缺水严重、水资源短缺问题仍未缓解。
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石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略: 以民勤绿洲区为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201505011 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>石羊河下游农户面临着严峻的风险冲击,使其生计脆弱性加剧。当前急需辨明农户面临的主要风险,探索阻碍农户抵御风险冲击的潜在因素,并依此找寻提高农户风险应对能力的对策措施。基于入户调查数据,分析了石羊河下游民勤绿洲区农户面临的主要生计风险及应对策略,并采用多元logistic模型分析了影响风险应对策略选择的因素。结果发现：① 市场、教育及自然风险已成为农户面临的最主要生计风险,其中纯农户（全部劳动力均从事农业生产）与一兼户（非农收入比重<50%）主要面临市场、教育及自然风险,二兼户（50%≤非农收入比重<90%）为市场、健康及教育风险,非农户（非农收入比重≥90%）为教育、健康及养老风险;② 减少消费、外出打工、动用储蓄、向亲友寻求帮助、向银行借贷是农户应对风险的主要策略,其中非农户的首选策略中居首位的是外出打工,其他三类农户均为减少消费;③ 人力资本、金融资本、社会资本是影响农户风险应对策略选择的最重要因素,物质资本次之,自然资本的影响最弱。最后,提出了提高农户风险应对能力的对策建议。</p>
The farmers’ livelihood risk and their coping strategy in the downstream of Shiyang River: A case of Minqin Oasis [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201505011 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>石羊河下游农户面临着严峻的风险冲击,使其生计脆弱性加剧。当前急需辨明农户面临的主要风险,探索阻碍农户抵御风险冲击的潜在因素,并依此找寻提高农户风险应对能力的对策措施。基于入户调查数据,分析了石羊河下游民勤绿洲区农户面临的主要生计风险及应对策略,并采用多元logistic模型分析了影响风险应对策略选择的因素。结果发现：① 市场、教育及自然风险已成为农户面临的最主要生计风险,其中纯农户（全部劳动力均从事农业生产）与一兼户（非农收入比重<50%）主要面临市场、教育及自然风险,二兼户（50%≤非农收入比重<90%）为市场、健康及教育风险,非农户（非农收入比重≥90%）为教育、健康及养老风险;② 减少消费、外出打工、动用储蓄、向亲友寻求帮助、向银行借贷是农户应对风险的主要策略,其中非农户的首选策略中居首位的是外出打工,其他三类农户均为减少消费;③ 人力资本、金融资本、社会资本是影响农户风险应对策略选择的最重要因素,物质资本次之,自然资本的影响最弱。最后,提出了提高农户风险应对能力的对策建议。</p>
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南方丘陵区农业生态系统适应能力及其驱动因子: 以衡阳盆地为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201305241168 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
全球变化背景下的适应性研究引起了广泛关注。南方丘陵区是典型的水稻农业区,研究其农业生态系统适应性尤为重要。采用主成分分析法对衡阳盆地农业生态系统适应能力进行了定量研究,分析不同适应能力区的适应性主要驱动因子。结果表明:适应能力的分布规律为衡阳市区最高,各县域适应能力呈现出盆地中部低、四周高的分布规律。不同适应能力区适应性驱动因子各异,高适应能力区主要驱动因子是经济条件,水热配合条件和灌溉设施是较高适应能力区的主要驱动因子,低适应能力区的主要驱动因子是人口规模和水土保持,热量和地形条件是极低适应能力区的主要驱动因子。高适应能力区因以农药和化肥的施用量为主要驱动因子具有短暂性,较高适应能力区以良好的水热配合条件和灌溉设施作为驱动因子具有可持续性,因而较高适应能力区的发展潜力超过高适应能力区。
Adaptability of agricultural ecosystems in the hilly areas in southern China: A case study in Hengyang Basin [J].https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201305241168 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
全球变化背景下的适应性研究引起了广泛关注。南方丘陵区是典型的水稻农业区,研究其农业生态系统适应性尤为重要。采用主成分分析法对衡阳盆地农业生态系统适应能力进行了定量研究,分析不同适应能力区的适应性主要驱动因子。结果表明:适应能力的分布规律为衡阳市区最高,各县域适应能力呈现出盆地中部低、四周高的分布规律。不同适应能力区适应性驱动因子各异,高适应能力区主要驱动因子是经济条件,水热配合条件和灌溉设施是较高适应能力区的主要驱动因子,低适应能力区的主要驱动因子是人口规模和水土保持,热量和地形条件是极低适应能力区的主要驱动因子。高适应能力区因以农药和化肥的施用量为主要驱动因子具有短暂性,较高适应能力区以良好的水热配合条件和灌溉设施作为驱动因子具有可持续性,因而较高适应能力区的发展潜力超过高适应能力区。
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A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making.
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Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: A case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.10.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Water scarcity and droughts pose serious threats to the livelihood of farming communities and the economy in many parts of the world. Using a survey of 546 farming households and employing multinomial logit regression, this study investigates rice farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in a semi-arid climate in Bangladesh. It identified factors determining farmers’ adaptation responses to addressing water scarcity. The analysis shows that farmers with more experience of farming, better schooling, more secure tenure rights, better access to electricity and institutional facilities and an awareness of climatic effects are more likely to adopt alternative adaptation strategies. Farmers’ alternative adaptation choices are examined in comparison to the traditional approach of groundwater irrigation. This study raises issues of sustainability of agricultural adaptation practices in the context of an increasing dependence on groundwater irrigation. The results provide an insight to sustainable irrigation practices and an understanding of the characteristics of farms and farming households to frame better strategies to cope with water-stressed regimes in drought-prone environments.
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Using expert judgment to assess adaptive capacity to climate change: Evidence from a conjoint choice survey [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We use conjoint choice questions to ask public health and climate change experts, contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004, which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country sociodemographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena.
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Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables [J]. |
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The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006 URL 摘要
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacityne element of vulnerabilitys associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
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Policy support, social capital, and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Drought; Adaptation measures; Policy support; Social capital; China; climate-change; north shaanxi; guanxi
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Organizational drivers that strengthen adaptive capacity in the coastal zone of Australia [J]. |
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Adaptive capacity and its assessment [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.019 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper reviews the concept of adaptive capacity and various approaches to assessing it, particularly with respect to climate variability and change. I find that adaptive capacity is a relatively under-researched topic within the sustainability science and global change communities, particularly since it is uniquely positioned to improve linkages between vulnerability and resilience research. I identify opportunities for advancing the measurement and characterization of adaptive capacity by combining insights from both vulnerability and resilience frameworks, and I suggest several assessment approaches for possible future development that draw from both frameworks and focus on analyzing the governance, institutions, and management that have helped foster adaptive capacity in light of recent climatic events.
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Organic fig growers’ adaptation and vulnerability to drought [J]. |
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Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004 URL 摘要
This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change.
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“Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: Towards a clarification of the science-policy interface [J].
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Adaptation strategies for water supply management in a drought prone Mediterranean river basin: Application of outranking method [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.062 URL PMID: 26277442 摘要
The regional water allocation planning is one of those complex decision problems where holistic approach to water supply management considering different criteria would be valuable. However, multi-criteria decision making with diverse indicators measured on different scales and uncertainty levels is difficult to solve. Objective of this paper is to develop scenarios for the future imbalances in water supply and demand for a water stressed Mediterranean area of Northern Spain (Tarragona) and to test the applicability and suitability of an outranking method ELECTRE-III-H for evaluating sectoral water allocation policies. This study is focused on the use of alternative water supply scenarios to fulfil the demand of water from three major sectors: domestic, industrial and agricultural. A detail scenario planning for regional water demand and supply has been discussed. For each future scenario of climate change, the goal is to obtain a ranking of a set of possible actions with regards to different types of indicators (costs, water stress and environmental impact). The analytical method used is based on outranking models for decision aid with hierarchical structures of criteria and ranking alternatives using partial preorders based on pairwise preference relations. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources (reclaimed water and desalination); inter basin water transfer and sectoral demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors and tested the sustainability of management actions for different climate change scenarios. Results have shown use of alternative water resources as the most reliable alternative with medium reclaimed water reuse in industry and agriculture and low to medium use of desalination water in domestic and industrial sectors as the best alternative. The proposed method has several advantages such as the management of heterogeneous scales of measurement without requiring any artificial transformation and the management of uncertainty by means of comparisons at a qualitative level in terms of the decision maker preferences.
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How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate: A case study in arid Northern China [J]. |
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Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter-wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.03.033 URL 摘要
Drought is one of the major climatic disasters intimidating winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain of China. The yield damage caused by drought tends to increase in the future, indicated by a pronounced uprising of drought events under RCP 8.5 scenario in terms of its affecting magnitude and area. This paper presents a modeling approach by using crop model DSSAT and hydrological indices to assess the vulnerability of winter wheat to future potential drought, based on an integrated assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Our results demonstrate that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong are more exposed and sensitive to potential drought than other regions in 3H. Traditional irrigation has the greater benefits in northern 3H Plain than southern regions, but is still insufficient to impede the yield loss due to potential drought. Under RCP 8.5 emission scenario and the period of 2010鈥2050, the worst drought effect is projected to occur around 2030. More than half of 3H plain are subject to high drought vulnerability. With increasing drought risks, we suggest immediate and appropriate adaptation actions to be taken before 2030s, especially in Shandong and Hebei, the most vulnerable provinces of 3H plain.
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A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
First empirical evidence from water governance supports the assumptions made on the dynamics of governance regimes and the usefulness of the chosen approach. More complex and diverse governance regimes have a higher adaptive capacity. However, it is still an open question how to overcome the state of single-loop learning that seem to characterize many attempts to adapt to climate change. Only further development and application of shared conceptual frameworks taking into account the real complexity of governance regimes can generate the knowledge base needed to advance current understanding to a state that allows giving meaningful policy advice.
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Adaptive capacity contributing to improved agricultural productivity at the household level: Empirical findings highlighting the importance of crop insurance [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding the factors that give rise to greater or lesser adaptive capacity among households with in a community could allow government interventions to target the right groups of people. In this paper we study such factors, making use of a household survey administered in the Indian state of Odisha. In the survey, we queried respondents for the adaptations that they had engaged in to deal with the risk of drought, as well as a number of indicators for adaptive capacity taken from the literature. We found a large number of indicators of adaptive capacity to correlate with one or more adaptations taken. However, many of these indicators, while increasing the likelihood that one adaptation would be taken, also decreased the likelihood that another would be taken, and hence were not unambiguous determinants of greater adaptive capacity in general. One indicator, access to crop insurance, stood out as particularly effective: it correlated with an increased likelihood of engaging in two separate yield-raising adaptations, and correlated with a decreased likelihood of engaging in two additional adaptations that would have the effect of reducing yields. The results suggest that further attention to crop insurance may be warranted, as well as further research to determine if the other indicators may be effective in other contextual settings.
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| [30] |
A framework to assess adaptive capacity of the water resources system in Nepalese River Basins [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2010.07.003 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper discusses an indicator-based framework - consisting of seven indicators, four parameters, and an index - to assess adaptive capacity of the water resources system in the Nepalese context and applies this framework to the Bagmati River Basin (BRB) in Nepal. With respect to the BRB, and Nepal in general, the study results show variations in adaptive capacity of the water resources system across the river basin (eight districts within the BRB), at different geographical (district, river basin and national level) as well as temporal (over decades) scale. Such variations suggest a need of differential policy interventions at different spatial scale to achieve adaptive management of the water resources. The adaptive capacity index can be used to prioritize basins, the adaptive capacity parameters can be used to identify the broader areas of intervention in the selected basin, and adaptive capacity indicators reveal the degree of attention required to strengthen adaptive capacity of the water resources system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| [31] |
The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the municipal level: Evidence from floodplain management programs in the United States [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.003 URL 摘要
This article provides a quantitative test of the relationship between adaptive capacity and socio-economic status (SES) at the municipal level. Local participation in a U.S. floodplain management program, the Community Rating System (CRS), is used as an indicator of adaptive capacity. The relationship between aggregated measures of SES and CRS participation is tested using probit, OLS and tobit models. The analysis indicates that socio-economic characteristics of a municipality's population are associated with the capacity of municipal leaders to effect collective action in response to environmental challenges. More theoretical work and case studies are needed to fully explain the reasons for this association.
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| [32] |
Exploring coffee farmers’ awareness about climate change and water needs: Smallholders’ perceptions of adaptive capacity [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.09.007 URL 摘要
Nicaragua is one of the four countries most affected by climate change, and coffee production is expected to vastly shrink in some critical areas. This can have considerable effects on social structure since nearly a third of its working population depend on coffee for a living. Social perceptions of climate change and water pressures are a key issue in the public's acceptance of adaptation measures. Furthermore, the existing risk for crop production is not necessarily correlated with the farmers’ awareness of that threat. This paper focuses on coffee producers’ perception of risk and adaptive capacity for coffee crops in Nicaragua in response to climate change and water availability. We aim to analyze how dependent the producers are on water resources, and if this reliance affects their perception of risk and their expectations with regard to public and private support for dealing with adaptation. A survey of 212 representative farmers of the national population of farms in the country's two most important production areas was conducted for this purpose. We consider socio-economic and biophysical variables to explain the farmers’ perceptions. Our findings show that experience and technical capacity are relevant to the adaptive capacity although smallholders do not always show high concern and their expectations with regard to external support are very low. The paper can be useful to prioritize the measures necessary for a greater level of involvement from stakeholders.
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| [33] |
Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 URL 摘要
This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
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| [34] |
Livelihood resilience and adaptive capacity: Tracing changes in household access to capital in central Vietnam [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.05.019 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article analyses the implementation and outcomes of national development programs in a mountainous commune in Vietnam. The article traces the history of State intervention and the capacity of households and the community to adapt to change. The assessment reveals unintended consequences of the programs which strongly influence the ability of households to adapt to change. Some households possess more adaptive capacity given their better access to capital while others remain vulnerable because they are constrained in accessing resources and engage in nondiversified livelihoods. If shock events become more frequent, the livelihoods that are nondiversified will be most at risk.
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| [35] |
A GIS-base exploration of the relationships between open space systems and urban form for the adaptive capacity of cities after an earthquake: The cases of two Chilean cities [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.01.010 URL 摘要
In human environments subjected to natural hazards, places such as plazas, parks and free areas can, after a catastrophe, be places for refuge which can satisfy survival needs and support adaptation. The relationships of such an open space system and the urban form, are explored in this study by focussing on the spatial context of two Chilean cities affected by earthquakes. Data was collected in interviews with people from emergency organisations using the Projecting Mapping Technique, and subjected to Content and Geographic Information System analyses to identify the type, utility and distribution of the open space system for earthquake recovery. The objective was to evaluate, by means of different spatial indexes, the extent the open space system of these cities impact on measures associated with urban resilience, namely overlap in governance and diversity . Findings suggest that the regularity of the grid and city density affect the adaptive capacity of cities, hence, resilience. Findings also shed light on a methodological approach, including participatory and geographical data, through which these resilient aspects can be explored and evaluated in other human environments prone to earthquakes.
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| [36] |
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.009 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change.
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