海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率的时空异质性及其驱动机理

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提升金融服务实体经济效率是海南自贸港建设亟待研究和突破的“靶点”。论文通过测算2011—2020年海南自贸港18市县金融服务实体经济效率，利用Dagum基尼系数与Kernel密度估计方法刻画效率的时空异质性，并借助随机森林模型揭示其驱动机理,创新性地从时空视角挖掘海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率分异机制。研究发现：① 海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率时空非平衡性明显，时序上阶段性显著，空间上呈西高东低、高值聚集、中部“洼地”的分布特征，西北部市县与中部市县各自逐步形成高值、低值聚集区；② 总体及沿海市县梯度分化特征逐步加强，而非沿海市县内部差距则逐步缩小，沿海区域金融服务实体经济效率的空间分异是总体分异的主要来源；③ 政府干预是效率分化的主导因素，含金融集聚度在内的影响因素对效率均呈非线性影响且作用趋势与阈值各异，各因素的边际产出能力及各市县对要素的吸收与应用能力的动态差异是时空异质性的主要来源。研究结论可为优化海南自贸港金融资源的空间配置、提升金融服务实体经济效率提供科学依据。

关键词: 金融, 实体经济, 时空异质性, 驱动机理, 海南自贸港

Abstract:

Improving the efficiency of financial services for the real economy is the "target" that needs to be studied in the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port. By measuring the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in 18 cities and counties of the Hainan Free Trade Port from 2011 to 2020, this study used the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to characterize the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of efficiency, examined its driving mechanism with the help of the random forest model, and revealed the spatiotemporal differentiation mechanism of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in the Hainan Free Trade Port. The research results indicate that: 1) The efficiency of financial services for the real economy in the Hainan Free Trade Port showed obvious temporal and spatial imbalances, with significant phases in the time series. The spatial distribution of efficiency showed a pattern of high in the west and low in the east, high value clustering, and a "depression" in the central area. 2) The differentiation of the overall efficiency and efficiency in coastal cities and counties gradually strengthened, while the gap within the non-coastal cities and counties gradually narrowed. The spatial differentiation of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in coastal regions was the main source of the overall differentiation. 3) Government intervention was the leading factor for efficiency differentiation. The influencing factors, including financial agglomeration, have a nonlinear influence on efficiency, the trends and thresholds of effects are different, and the marginal output capacity of each factor and the dynamic difference of the absorption and application capacity of the factors in various cities and counties are the main sources of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results provide some scientific basis for optimizing the spatial allocation of financial resources in the Hainan Free Trade Port and improving the efficiency of financial services for the real economy.

Key words: finance, real economy, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, driving mechanism, Hainan Free Trade Port

郭庆宾, 黄林峰. 海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率的时空异质性及其驱动机理[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(1): 53-65.

GUO Qingbin, HUANG Linfeng. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the efficiency of financial services for the real economy and driving mechanism in the Hainan Free Trade Port[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 53-65.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

Dagum基尼系数分解结果

年份	总体G	组内差异 $G w$		组间差异 $G n b$	贡献率/%
年份	总体G	沿海	非沿海	沿海—非沿海	组内差异 $G w$	组间差异 $G n b$	超变密度 $G t$
2011	0.166	0.151	0.072	0.203	48.774	44.792	6.434
2012	0.155	0.143	0.154	0.168	53.114	24.744	22.142
2013	0.184	0.179	0.123	0.203	53.388	35.314	11.299
2014	0.147	0.136	0.076	0.174	49.951	45.468	4.581
2015	0.174	0.157	0.146	0.199	51.577	37.970	10.453
2016	0.149	0.116	0.137	0.191	46.373	48.097	5.530
2017	0.194	0.156	0.144	0.251	46.804	50.568	2.628
2018	0.165	0.106	0.081	0.255	36.797	63.203	0
2019	0.193	0.170	0.109	0.239	48.970	48.407	2.623
2020	0.167	0.117	0.089	0.245	39.823	58.833	1.345

表3

图4

图5

图6

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类别	指标及说明		选择依据
投入变量	资金资源投入	贷款总额	以商业银行本外币贷款余额表示金融部门向实体经济的资金资源投入
	资金资源投入	原保险保费支出	以各保险机构的原保险赔付支出作为保险机构的资金投入
	组织资源投入	金融机构数量	以含银行、证券以及保险在内的金融机构总数(含营业网点)作为机构资源投入
	组织资源投入	金融业人力资源投入	以金融从业人员数量代替金融行业人力资源投入
产出变量	实体经济产出	GDP-金融业增加值-房地产业增加值	将国民经济中过度占用金融资源的房地产业以及金融业自身剔除后的经济增加值作为实体经济产出

变量	变量表示	指标测算
经济发展水平	ln Eco	市县人均GDP的对数值
工业发展规模	RS	第二产业增加值/GDP
服务业规模	SS	第三产业增加值/GDP
对外开放度	Open	进出口总额/GDP
金融业规模	FP	金融业增加值/GDP
金融体系结构	FS	股票市值与保费收入之和/金融总资产
金融集聚度	FA	各市县银行存贷款总额、上市公司总市值、原保险保费收入之和与全省总额的比值/各市县人口总数与全省人口总数的比值
固定资产投资信贷比例	Fal	市县固定资产投资资金来源中信贷资金数额/市县贷款余额
房地产建设信贷资金比例	Rel	市县房地产建设各项资金来源中国内信贷的数额/市县贷款余额
政府干预	Gov	地方政府财政支出/GDP
国有化率	Nation	用市县规模以上工业企业所有者权益结构中国家资本占实收资本的比例代替
城镇化水平	Urban	市县城镇人口数量/总人口
人力资本	Human	市县高中及以上学历人数/总人口